the problem that we're facing with the oceans,

我們目前所面對的海洋問題，

you have to think about the biology

那麼在你思考生物學時

at the same time you think about the physics.

也必須同時思考物理學。

We can't solve the problems

除非我們能夠以跨領域的方式

unless we start studying the ocean

來對海洋進行研究，

in a very much more interdisciplinary way.

否則我們不可能解決這些問題。

So I'm going to demonstrate that through

所以我將會藉由討論海洋面臨的一些氣候變遷

discussion of some of the climate change things that are going on in the ocean.

來證明這些問題。

We'll look at sea level rise.

我們會討論海面上升。

We'll look at ocean warming.

以及海洋暖化現象。

And then the last thing on the list there, ocean acidification --

然後是最後一個問題，海洋酸化現象 --

if you were to ask me, you know, "What do you worry about the most?

如果你問我，"你最擔心的事情是什麼?

What frightens you?"

什麼會令你恐懼?"

for me, it's ocean acidification.

對我來說，那就是海洋酸化。

And this has come onto the stage pretty recently.

這是最近剛浮上檯面的問題。

So I will spend a little time at the end.

所以我會在最後花一點時間來討論它。

I was in Copenhagen in December

在10月的時候，我參加了哥本哈根會議，

like a number of you in this room.

如同在座部份人一樣。

And I think we all found it, simultaneously,

我想我們都同時發現，

an eye-opening

一個令人大開眼界

and a very frustrating experience.

卻也令人沮喪的經驗。

I sat in this large negotiation hall,

我坐在巨大的協商會議廳裡，

at one point, for three or four hours,

在同一個位子上三~四個小時，

without hearing the word "oceans" one time.

完全沒有聽見"海洋"這個字。

It really wasn't on the radar screen.

它確實沒有被列入議題。

The nations that brought it up

當各國領袖開始發言時，

when we had the speeches of the national leaders --

它才被人提到 --

it tended to be the leaders of the small island states,

但卻都只是一些小型島國的領袖，

the low-lying island states.

一些地勢低窪的島國。

And by this weird quirk

而由於這個詭異的

of alphabetical order of the nations,

國名排列方式，

a lot of the low-lying states,

許多地勢低窪的國家

like Kiribati and Nauru,

例如吉里巴斯共和國以及諾魯共和國，

they were seated at the very end of these immensely long rows.

他們都坐在這些長排座位的最尾端。

You know, they were marginalized

你知道的，他們在這間會議廳中

in the negotiation room.

被邊緣化了。

One of the problems

其中一項問題

is coming up with the right target.

是要找出一個正確的目標。

It's not clear what the target should be.

他們並不清楚目標是什麼。

And how can you figure out how to fix something

那麼你又怎麼可能在目標不明確時，

if you don't have a clear target?

找出解決問題的辦法呢?

Now, you've heard about "two degrees":

大家都聽過 "二度" 吧，

that we should limit temperature rise to no more than two degrees.

我們應該避免溫度上升超過二度。

But there's not a lot of science behind that number.

但這數字背後並沒有什麼科學根據。

We've also talked about

我們還討論了

concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

大氣層中二氧化碳的濃度。

Should it be 450? Should it be 400?

它應該被設在450? 還是400呢?

There's not a lot of science behind that one either.

這些數字同樣也沒有什麼科學根據。

Most of the science that is behind these numbers,

這些數字背後大部分的科學根據，

these potential targets,

這些重要的目標，

is based on studies on land.

都是依據在陸地上進行的研究。

And I would say, for the people that work in the ocean

而我想說的是，對於那些研究海洋

and think about what the targets should be,

以及思考該設定哪些目標的人來說，

we would argue that they must be much lower.

我們都認為它們應該要更低才對。

You know, from an oceanic perspective,

你知道嗎，對於海洋生態而言，

450 is way too high.

450 實在太高了。

Now there's compelling evidence

目前已經有強力的證據

that it really needs to be 350.

來說明那必須設定在 350。

We are, right now, at 390 parts per million

現在大氣中的二氧化碳濃度

of CO2 in the atmosphere.

是 百萬分之390。

We're not going to put the brakes on in time to stop at 450,

我們不可能在450的時候才踩煞車，

so we've got to accept we're going to do an overshoot,

所以我們必須接受去設定一個嚴苛的標準，

and the discussion as we go forward

而在我們接下來的討論中，

has to focus on how far the overshoot goes

必須專注於這個嚴苛的標準要進行多久，

and what's the pathway back to 350.

還有要如何讓它降回350。

Now, why is this so complicated?

為什麼這件事會那麼複雜呢?

Why don't we know some of these things a little bit better?

為何我們還不太了解這些事呢?

Well, the problem is that

嗯，問題在於

we've got very complicated forces in the climate system.

氣候系統裡有很複雜的力量存在。

There's all kinds of natural causes of climate change.

有許多導致氣候變遷的自然因素。

There's air-sea interactions.

有空氣和海洋的相互作用。

Here in Galapagos,

在加拉巴哥群島這裡，

we're affected by El Ninos and La Nina.

我們被聖嬰和反聖嬰現象所影響著。

But the entire planet warms up when there's a big El Nino.

但是當巨大的聖嬰現象出現時，整個地球都會出現暖化現象。

Volcanoes eject aerosols into the atmosphere.

火山噴出的氣體會曠散到大氣中。

That changes our climate.

這會改變氣候。

The ocean contains most of the exchangeable heat on the planet.

海洋含有地球上最大量的可交換熱能。

So anything that influences

因此任何能夠影響

how ocean surface waters mix with the deep water

海洋表層與深海海水混合的因素

changes the ocean of the planet.

將會改變地球上的海洋。

And we know the solar output's not constant through time.

我們知道太陽照射的能量並不是永遠都固定的。

So those are all natural causes of climate change.

所以這些都是導致氣候變遷的自然因素。

And then we have the human-induced causes

然而，我們還有因為人類所造成的

of climate change as well.

氣候變遷因素。

We're changing the characteristics of the surface of the land,

我們正在改變地表的特質，

the reflectivity.

所謂的反射率。

We inject our own aerosols into the atmosphere,

我們排放氣體到大氣中，

and we have trace gases, and not just carbon dioxide --

我們追蹤了幾種氣體，不只是二氧化碳 --

it's methane, ozone,

還有甲烷、臭氧、

oxides of sulfur and nitrogen.

以及硫和氮的氧化物。

So here's the thing. It sounds like a simple question.

所以事情就是這樣。聽起來似乎是個簡單的問題。

Is CO2 produced by man's activities

人類活動所產生的二氧化碳

causing the planet to warm up?

導致了全球暖化嗎?

But to answer that question,

但是想回答那個問題，

to make a clear attribution to carbon dioxide,

想了解二氧化碳扮演的角色，

you have to know something about

你就必須先了解

all of these other agents of change.

所有造成氣候變遷的其它因素。

But the fact is we do know a lot about all of those things.

但事實上我們確實知道許多關於這些的資訊。

You know, thousands of scientists

你知道嗎，有上千位科學家

have been working on understanding

正在致力於了解

all of these man-made causes

這些人為因素

and the natural causes.

以及自然因素。

And we've got it worked out, and we can say,

而且我們已經弄清楚了，我們可以說，

"Yes, CO2 is causing the planet to warm up now."

"是的，二氧化碳正在造成全球暖化現象。"

Now, we have many ways to study natural variability.

目前我們有許多方法來研究自然界的變異性。

I'll show you a few examples of this now.

現在讓我給你們看一些例子。

This is the ship that I spent the last three months on in the Antarctic.

這是我最近三個月來在南極待的那艘船。

It's a scientific drilling vessel.

這是一艘科學鑽探船。

We go out for months at a time and drill into the sea bed

每次出海都會航行好幾個月，然後鑽入海床

to recover sediments

收集一些沉積物，

that tell us stories of climate change, right.

這東西可以讓我們了解氣候變遷的狀況，對吧。

Like one of the ways to understand our greenhouse future

例如，想了解未來溫室效應狀況的其中一個方法

is to drill down in time

就是下向挖掘，從現今的部份

to the last period

到最後一個時期，

where we had CO2 double what it is today.

我們發現那裡的二氧化碳含量是現在的兩倍。

And so that's what we've done with this ship.

那就是我們在這艘船上完成的工作。

This was -- this is south of the Antarctic Circle.

這邊是南極圈的南邊。

It looks downright tropical there.

它看起來簡直就像熱帶地區。

One day where we had calm seas and sun,

某天海水平靜，陽光和煦的時候，

which was the reason I could get off the ship.

也就是我能夠下船的原因。

Most of the time it looked like this.

在大部分時候看起來就像這樣。

We had a waves up to 50 ft.

海浪高達50呎，

and winds averaging

而在大部分航行中

about 40 knots for most of the voyage

風速平均是40節(約時速74公里)，

and up to 70 or 80 knots.

最高可達70~80節(時速130~150公里)。

So that trip just ended,

於是那趟旅程到此結束，

and I can't show you too many results from that right now,

我現在還有沒辦法給你們看許多當時的結果，

but we'll go back one more year,

但我們來看看前一年，

to another drilling expedition I've been involved in.

我曾參予過的另一項鑽探工程。

This was led by Ross Powell and Tim Naish.

這是由Ross Powell和Tim Naish所主導的。

It's the ANDRILL project.

這個項目叫ANDRILL。

And we made the very first bore hole

而我們所鑚的第一個鑽孔，

through the largest floating ice shelf on the planet.

是從地球上最大的浮冰層開始的。

This is a crazy thing, this big drill rig wrapped in a blanket

這是一件很瘋狂的事。這個巨大的鑚探設備被毛毯包裹著，

to keep everybody warm,

以保持大家的溫暖，

drilling at temperatures of minus 40.

在零下40度的低溫下進行鑚探作業。

And we drilled in the Ross Sea.

我們在羅斯海中進行鑽探。

That's the Ross Sea Ice Shelf on the right there.

那邊那個就是羅斯海的冰層。

So, this huge floating ice shelf

那麼，這塊有如阿拉斯加那麼大的

the size of Alaska

巨大浮冰層，

comes from West Antarctica.

是從西南極飄過來的。

Now, West Antarctica is the part of the continent

現在，西南極成為大陸版塊的一部份，

where the ice is grounded on sea floor

冰層在海底積聚，

as much as 2,000 meters deep.

在深達2000公尺的地方。

So that ice sheet is partly floating,

因此那塊冰層有一部分是浮起來的，

and it's exposed to the ocean, to the ocean heat.

它暴露在海洋中，在海洋的熱氣中。

This is the part of Antarctica that we worry about.

這是南極令我們擔心的其中一件事。

Because it's partly floating, you can imagine,

由於它有部份是浮起來的，你可以想像，

is sea level rises a little bit,

只要海平面上升一點點，

the ice lifts off the bed, and then it can break off and float north.

冰層會從海底浮上來，然後會裂開，並朝向北邊漂移。

When that ice melts, sea level rises by six meters.

一旦冰層溶化，海平面就會上升6公尺。

So we drill back in time to see how often that's happened,

所以我們利用鑚探方式來研究這種事發生的頻率，

and exactly how fast that ice can melt.

以及冰層實際溶化的速度有多快。

Here's the cartoon on the left there.

左邊這裡有一個插畫。

We drilled through a hundred meters of floating ice shelf

我們鑽過厚達一百公尺的浮冰層，

then through 900 meters of water

然後穿過900公尺深的海水，

and then 1,300 meters into the sea floor.

然後再往下進入海底1300公尺深。

So it's the deepest geological bore hole ever drilled.

這是有史以來最深的地質鑚探。

It took about 10 years to put this project together.

這個項目大概花了10年的籌備工作。

And here's what we found.

這是我們所發現的東西。

Now, there's 40 scientists working on this project,

現在，有40位科學家正在進行這個項目，

and people are doing all kinds of really complicated

還有許多人在進行各種既複雜

and expensive analyses.

又昂貴的分析作業。

But it turns out, you know, the thing that told the best story

但結果呢，最能說明一切的

was this simple visual description.

就是這個簡單的視覺描述。

You know, we saw this in the core samples as they came up.

當樣品被採集出來時，我們在核心樣品中發現這個。

We saw these alternations

我們在沉積物裡面發現

between sediments that look like this --

這些交替層，看起來就像這樣 --

there's gravel and cobbles in there

裡面有碎石和圓石，

and a bunch of sand.

還有大量的沙子。

That's the kind of material in the deep sea.

這就是深海裡面的物質。

It can only get there if it's carried out by ice.

它是被冰層所帶過去的。

So we know there's an ice shelf overhead.

我們知道冰層就在它的上面。

And that alternates with a sediment that looks like this.

而這個含有沉積物的交替層看起來就像這樣。

This is absolutely beautiful stuff.

這絕對是很美的東西。

This sediment is 100 percent made up

這些沉積物是百分之百

of the shells of microscopic plants.

由微小植物的外皮所形成的。

And these plants need sunlight,

而這些植物需要陽光，

so we know when we find that sediment

所以當我們找到那些沉積物時便知道，

there's no ice overhead.

它的上面沒有冰層。

And we saw about 35 alternations

在開放水域和冰層覆蓋的水域中

between open water and ice-covered water,

我們發現了大概35個交替層，

between gravels and these plant sediments.

位於碎石和這些植物沉積物之間。

So what that means is, what it tells us

所以意思是說，它能告訴我們，

is that the Ross Sea region, this ice shelf,

在羅斯海域的這塊冰層，

melted back and formed anew

曾經溶化又再次形成冰層

about 35 times.

重複大約35次。

And this is in the past four million years.

而這是在過去400萬年發生的事。

This was completely unexpected.

這是完全出乎意料的。

Nobody imagined that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

沒有人能夠想像西南極洲冰原

was this dynamic.

是如此多變的。

In fact, the lore for many years has been,

事實上，多年來的認知一直以為，

"The ice formed many tens of millions of years ago,

"這些冰層是在幾千萬年前形成的，

and it's been there ever since."

並且從未改變過。"

And now we know that in our recent past

現在我們知道在接近現今的過去，

it melted back and formed again,

它曾經溶化又再次形成冰層，

and sea level went up and down, six meters at a time.

每次海平面上升和下降幅度大約6公尺。

What caused it?

這是什麼造成的呢?

Well, we're pretty sure that it's very small changes

嗯, 我們非常確定在南極洲

in the amount of sunlight reaching Antarctica,

太陽光的照射量並沒有什麼改變，

just caused by natural changes in the orbit of the Earth.

只有因為地球軌道造成的少許自然變異。

But here's the key thing:

但是，接下來的才是關鍵：

you know, the other thing we found out

你知道嗎, 我們發現另一件事情，

is that the ice sheet passed a threshold,

就是冰層已經超過了一個臨界點，

that the planet warmed up enough --

地球暖化的程度已經高到足以 --

and the number's about one degree to one and a half degrees Centigrade --

大概在 1 到 1.5 攝氏度 --

the planet warmed up enough that it became ...

地球暖化的程度已經高到足以讓 ...

that ice sheet became very dynamic

冰層變得非常的不穩定，

and was very easily melted.

變得很容易溶化。

And you know what?

你能想像嗎?

We've actually changed the temperature in the last century

我們在上一個世紀，

just the right amount.

讓溫度上升的幅度就是這個數字。

So many of us are convinced now

因此我們大多都相信，

that West Antarctica, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, is starting to melt.

西南極，西南極洲冰原已經開始溶化了。

We do expect to see a sea-level rise

我們已經可以預期在這個世紀末，

on the order of one to two meters by the end of this century.

海平面將會上升一到兩公尺高。

And it could be larger than that.

而且還可能會更高。

This is a serious consequence

這對吉里巴斯這類的國家，

for nations like Kiribati,

會是一個很嚴重的結果，

you know, where the average elevation

你知道的，他們地表的平均高度

is about a little over a meter above sea level.

只比海平面高出一公尺左右。

Okay, the second story takes place here in Galapagos.

第二個問題發生在加拉巴哥群島。

This is a bleached coral,

這兒發生了珊瑚的白化現象，

coral that died during the 1982-'83 El Nino.

珊瑚因為1982-83年的聖嬰現象而死亡。

This is from Champion Island.

這件事發生在冠軍島上。

It's about a meter tall Pavona clavus colony.

那是長達1公尺的柱形雀屏珊瑚群。

And it's covered with algae. That's what happens.

最後它被海藻所覆蓋。事情就這樣發生了。

When these things die,

當這些珊瑚死亡後，

immediately, organisms come in

立刻有一些有機生物了進來，

and encrust and live on that dead surface.

包覆並寄居在這死掉的珊瑚表面上。

And so, when a coral colony is killed

所以，當珊瑚群

by an El Nino event,

因為聖嬰現象而死亡後，

it leaves this indelible record.

便會留下這個無法消去的紀錄。

You can go then and study corals

你可以到那兒，然後研究這些珊瑚，

and figure out how often do you see this.

看看你有多常遇到這種事情。

So one of the things thought of in the '80s

所以在80年代有一個概念，

was to go back and take cores

就是到那兒去，

of coral heads throughout the Galapagos

將散落於加拉巴哥群島的珊瑚頭部核心取出，