is a tour around the entire global economy in under five minutes with George Magnus.

George, welcome.

Thanks.

Umm, let's start with the obvious. Brexit.

What does it mean first for domestic British economy?

I think two things that I'm focused on, really,

one is, you know, in the initial... sort of flushes, as you were, of Brexit, the demand shock.

So people will not make investment decisions, people will not make borrowing decisions, or enough.

So the likelihood is we go into a little recession, maybe a big recession, hard to tell at this stage.

Second thing is really what comes after that, cause we'll recover from the recession.

Will we have a permanent loss of trend growth, of output, of productivity, and that's really for the medium term.

So, not good.

Okay, immediate follow-up, what does it mean for Europe ex-Brit?

I think, obviously, European countries that do a lot of business with Britain,

clearly will suffer, because there will be a demand shock, that they'll have to... kind of weather,

but the big thing, I think, for European countries like Germany, France, for example, Italy,

big countries, that have, you know, strong anti-EU political movements, is that...

if they gain traction either on their own or because there's uncertainty in governing parties

trying to accommodate their policies,

then, you know, that could have negative impact on spending and borrowing and lending decisions

that European countries make.

So, growth in Europe may slow down quite a lot in 2017, too.

It comes at a time when growth in Europe is actually still quite fragile, showing some signs of light,

but not enough to overcome something like this.

No, we're having a bit of a bounce, that's true.

And some countries like Spain, it's actually turning out to be a little bit more than a bounce.

But, you know, the underlying, kind of, capacity of the European economy to generate growth,

actually, it will only improve, really, I think if there's a kind of a relaxation, not so much of the monetary side,

'cause the ECB has pretty much shot its bolt,

but actually on the fiscal side.

Hard to see that happening immediately.

Ok, let's go across the pond for a second.

The United States worries about a slowdown in job growth,

obviously we're in the middle of a very tumultuous election, how do you see the situation there?

Yeah, I'm not too bothered about the slowdown in Nonfarm Payrolls which has just happened over... you know, in the months of April, May,

actually I think that the momentum in the economy, as it has been, since 2011, is kind of plus or minus 2%,

sometimes a bit more, sometimes a bit less, but actually that's the kind of way it's going.

I'm a bit worried about the capital spending numbers from companies,

and I'm a bit worried about the impact that, shall we say an untoward shift in the... kind of polls in the American election

might have on business spending and on consumer spending.

So if the election doesn't really throw up a huge kind of surprise,

I think the American economy actually is self-sufficient enough to keep on growing about 2%.

Okay, a final... developed economy before we get to the EMs.

Japan, Abenomics, what's going on?

Well, uh... disappointing is all we can say, and...umm...

unless, you know, the prime minister is able to kind of inject a new impetus behind these reforms, structural reforms,

umm... and basically put more spending power into the economy, fiscally, obviously it's quite difficult,

but governance reform, trying to release cash on the balance sheet of listed Japanese companies,

these things might help,

but again, I don't really see very strong signs that that's imminent.

Okay, let's switch to emerging markets, let's start with China.

China... I mean, the good news about China,

and I'm not really prone to look for a lot of good news in China,

but the good news in China is the economy has stabilised,

and umm... and it's largely on the back of this huge increase in broad claims by the banking sector on the economy,

umm... obviously there's a lot of discussion about whether that's the right policy to follow,

but I frankly think that between now and the end of 2017,

when the next 19th congress will take place,

we won't see a lot of restraint exercised in the Chinese economy,

so I think it will keep going, but actually, the debt problem is actually going to find it out sooner or later.

Okay, less than a minute left, emerging markets, ex-China obviously, they're affected by what happens in China,

uh, but how do you see things there?

Right, so...uh, I think emerging markets have lapsed into this growth hiatus

they can keep going in a kind of a... a less-than-satisfactory growth rate, relative...

I mean, it's higher than the rich countries that will be able to achieve,

but not as high as they've done.

And I think the reasons for this hiatus have to do with the stagnation of world trade,

and with local homegrown factors,

when you look at Brazilian politics, you look at Russia's, you know, commodities problems,

South Africa's commodity problem,

India really is the only kind of bright spark, umm... they're...

and even then, government's changes, may... affect them. Yeah.

Okay, great! George Magnus, thanks so much, appreciate it.