Subtitles section Play video Print subtitles Hello and welcome to the Week Ahead from the Financial Times in London. Here are some of the big stories we'll have our eyes on this week. The UN Tribunal plans to make a ruling on disputes in the South China Sea between China and the Philipines. The aluminum giant ALCOA which is undergoing a major restructuring opens the US earning season. And the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meets for the first time since the UK voted to leave the EU to discuss how to support the British economy. First, geopolitical tensions in the South China Sea have ratcheted up in recent years, and this week should see the first international ruling on the much contested claims made by China in the region. The UN Tribunal will decide on a case brought by the Philipines in 2013 to the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea based in The Hague Although the case revolves around technical aspect of maritime law, the ruling could be of great significance by clarifying several issues at the heart of the area's territorial disputes. However, China's Foreign Ministry has said it doesn't recognize the court's authority. Experts expect the court to rule against China on a number of the cases and while the Tribunal has no powers of enforcement if the ruling favors the Philippines, China's reputation is likely to be further damaged if it continues to pursue its claims. The Obama Administration is already framing the ruling as a test of China's respect for international law. so the verdict could aggravate tensions between those two countries which were involved in a broader contest of influence in the region. ALCOA, the US aluminum group that's been working to split itself in two, opens the earnings reporting season on Monday. By the end of the year, it will have divided into a commodity business and a company making specialized metals and components for industries such as cars and aircraft. The breakup plan has been welcomed by some investors although ALCOA's share price has continued to track closely to the aluminum price, hitting a low in January but recovering somewhat since then. And as our US energy editor Ed Krooks explains, the commodity price remains one of the biggest challenges for the company. "The whole group is still very much affected by the price of aluminum and that's gonna be a dominant feature of these latest results. The price of aluminum is down about 15% since the last year, it's actually recovered a bit in 2016 but it's still bit down compared to what it was a year ago and as a result of that we're gonna see lower earnings for ALCOA group, in the second quarter of 2016. Analysts think they are gonna make about, they will have made about 9 cents in earnings per share during the second quarter of 2016 and that's down from 19 cents per share which they reported as underlying earnings for the second quarter of 2015. And finally this week we'll see the first meeting of the Bank of England's monetary policy committee since the UK's vote for Brexit roiled markets and raced the specter of recession for the British economy. Signs from Bank of England governor, Mark Carney, that he's willing to prop up a faltering economy, have seen future's markets point to an almost 80% probability of an interest rate cut this week. And just over 20% chance of rates going to 0 at the bank's next meeting in August. Economics reporter Emily Cadman has more. Governor Mark Carney has already said that in his view, monetary policy easing is going to be needed over the summer. Now the bank won't get its new forecast of the UK economy until August. But there's a mood of expectation growing in the city that the bank is going to want to act sooner. That could mean interest rate cuts as soon as Thursday. The bank does have other options of things that it could do. For example, it could restart its quantitive easing program where it buys assets. But most people are expecting it to wait until it has more information before doing that. That's what the week ahead looks like from the Financial Times in London. See you again next time.
B1 FinancialTimes china bank aluminum ruling tribunal South China Sea, Alcoa | Week Ahead 55 2 Lillian Chiu posted on 2016/07/12 More Share Save Report Video vocabulary