of Odysseus and the Sirens

從高中或初中

from high school or junior high school?

奧德修斯和塞壬的故事嗎？

There was this hero, Odysseus, who's heading back home

有這一個英雄, 奧德修斯，剛從

after the Trojan War.

特洛伊戰爭戰後回家。

And he's standing on the deck of his ship,

他站立在他的的船的甲板上，

he's talking to his first mate,

他和他的第一副手，

and he's saying,

談着說:

"Tomorrow, we will sail past those rocks,

「明天，我們將駛過那些岩石去，

and on those rocks sit some beautiful women

在這些岩石上會坐着一群美麗的女子,

called Sirens.

她們稱為塞壬。

And these women sing an enchanting song,

而這群女子會唱着一首迷人的歌曲，

a song so alluring

那首如此誘人的歌曲，

that all sailors who hear it

令到所有水手聽到都着迷,

crash into the rocks and die."

撞到岩石而死亡。」

Now you would expect, given that,

現在你當然以為鑑於這個原因,

that they would choose an alternate route around the Sirens,

他們會選擇另一條迴避塞壬們的路徑，

but instead Odysseus says,

但奧德修斯竟然說:

"I want to hear that song.

「我想聽到這首歌。

And so what I'm going to do

而我要做的是要

is I'm going to pour wax in the ears

在你和所有人的耳朵中

of you and all the men --

倒進蠟--

stay with me --

等着--

so that you can't hear the song,

你們便聽不到這首歌，

and then I'm going to have you tie me to the mast

然後你們要把我綁在桅杆上，

so that I can listen

那我便可以聽到這首歌,

and we can all sail by unaffected."

而我們都可以不受影響順利渡過。」

So this is a captain

這是一個

putting the life of every single person on the ship at risk

只為了聽到一首歌曲, 而願意妄顧船上

so that he can hear a song.

每一個人安危的隊長。

And I'd like to think if this was the case,

而且我覺得如果是這種情況，

they probably would have rehearsed it a few times.

他們理應先會排練幾次。

Odysseus would have said, "Okay, let's do a dry run.

奧德修斯會說: 「好吧，讓我們試試做。

You tie me to the mast, and I'm going to beg and plead.

當你把我綁在桅杆上，我會央求你把我釋放。

And no matter what I say, you cannot untie me from the mast.

無論我說什麼，你不可以都解開我。

All right, so tie me to the mast."

好, 現在把我綁在桅杆上吧。」

And the first mate takes a rope

大副便拿着繩子

and ties Odysseus to the mast in a nice knot.

把奧德修斯綁在桅杆上，結了一個漂亮的結。

And Odysseus does his best job playacting

然後奧德修斯假裝演着說，

and says, "Untie me. Untie me.

「解開我, 解開我。

I want to hear that song. Untie me."

我想聽聽這首歌。解開我。」

And the first mate wisely resists

大副明智地抗拒

and doesn't untie Odysseus.

和不解開奧德修斯。

And then Odysseus says, "I see that you can get it.

然後奧德修斯說，「好, 我看到你是行的。

All right, untie me now and we'll get some dinner."

好, 把我解開, 然後我們去吃晚餐。」

And the first mate hesitates.

大副遲疑。

He's like, "Is this still the rehearsal,

他在想: 「這是否仍是排練?

or should I untie him?"

或是我應該解開他呢？」

And the first mate thinks,

大副在想:

"Well, I guess at some point the rehearsal has to end."

「好吧，排練都應該有結束的時候。」

So he unties Odysseus, and Odysseus flips out.

於是，他解開了奧德修斯，而奧德修斯卻大發雷霆,

He's like, "You idiot. You moron.

罵着: 「你這個白痴。你這個蠢材。

If you do that tomorrow, I'll be dead, you'll be dead,

如果明天你這樣做，我會死，你會死的，

every single one of the men will be dead.

每一個人都會死亡。

Now just don't untie me no matter what."

只要無論如何都不要解開我。」

He throws the first mate to the ground.

他把大副推到地上。

This repeats itself through the night --

整夜這個過程一再重複--

rehearsal, tying to the mast,

排練，綁在桅杆上，

conning his way out of it,

奧德修斯哄騙着要解開他,

beating the poor first mate up mercilessly.

毫不留情地毆打那個可憐的大副。

Hilarity ensues.

鬧劇隨之而來。

Tying yourself to a mast

把自己綁在桅杆

is perhaps the oldest written example

也許是心理學家最長久有書寫記錄

of what psychologists call a commitment device.

所說的稱為承諾設備的例子。

A commitment device is a decision that you make

承諾設備是一個你以冷靜頭腦

with a cool head to bind yourself

作出的決定來約束自己,

so that you don't do something regrettable

是以讓你不要當你脾气急躁時

when you have a hot head.

做一些遺憾的事情。

Because there's two heads inside one person

因為當你想想看, 人內其實

when you think about it.

有兩個頭腦。

Scholars have long invoked this metaphor of two selves

當涉及到的誘惑力的問題,

when it comes to questions of temptation.

學者早就調用到這兩個自我的比喻。

There is first, the present self.

首先是, 目前的自我。

This is like Odysseus when he's hearing the song.

這是像奧德修斯聽到這首歌的時候。

He just wants to get to the front row.

他只想去坐前排。

He just thinks about the here and now and the immediate gratification.

他只是想到此時此地和當下的滿足。

But then there's this other self, the future self.

但另一個自我, 是未來的自我。

This is Odysseus as an old man

這是奧德修斯作為一個老人,

who wants nothing more than to retire in a sunny villa

一個想要在陽光明媚伊薩卡外的別墅,

with his wife Penelope

和他的妻子佩內洛普退休

outside of Ithaca -- the other one.

的奧德修斯，另一個自我。

So why do we need commitment devices?

那麼，為什麼我們需要承諾的設備？

Well resisting temptation is hard,

因為抗拒誘惑是很困難的，

as the 19th century English economist

如19世紀英國經濟學家

Nassau William Senior said,

老拿騷威廉說:

"To abstain from the enjoyment which is in our power,

「要放棄我們有權力掌管的享受，

or to seek distant rather than immediate results,

或是要企圖遙遠規避而不享有即時的效果，

are among the most painful exertions

是對人類意志最痛苦

of the human will."

費力的事。」

If you set goals for yourself and you're like a lot of other people,

像其他很多人一樣, 如果你為自己設定目標,

you probably realize

你可能會意識到

it's not that your goals are physically impossible

不是你的目標過於高不可攀

that's keeping you from achieving them,

令你不可能實現，

it's that you lack the self-discipline to stick to them.

而是你缺乏自律去堅持。

It's physically possible to lose weight.

減肥是物理上有可能實現的。

It's physically possible to exercise more.

要多點運動物理上是有可能的。

But resisting temptation

但抵制誘惑

is hard.

是很難。

The other reason

另外一個原因

that it's difficult to resist temptation

令誘惑難以抗拒，

is because it's an unequal battle

是因為在目前的自我

between the present self and the future self.

和未來的自我之間有著不平等的戰鬥。

I mean, let's face it, the present self is present.

我的意思是，面對現實吧，現在的自我是現在。

It's in control. It's in power right now.

它在控制。它現在在控制權力。

It has these strong, heroic arms

它有著這些強大的，英勇的胳膊，

that can lift doughnuts into your mouth.

可以把甜圈放在你的口中。

And the future self is not even around.

而未來的自我根甚本不存。

It's off in the future. It's weak.

它在未來。它薄弱。

It doesn't even have a lawyer present.

它甚至沒有律師在場。

There's nobody to stick up for the future self.

沒有人堅持為未來的自我爭辯。

And so the present self can trounce

所以現在的自我可以打垮

all over its dreams.

所有未來的夢想。

So there's this battle between the two selves that's being fought,

這自我兩者之間的鬥爭在戰鬥中，

and we need commitment devices

我們需要的承諾設備

to level the playing field between the two.

來公平平整兩者之間的競爭環境。

Now I'm a big fan of commitment devices actually.

事實上我是承諾設備的擁躉。

Tying yourself to the mast is the oldest one, but there are other ones

把自己綁在桅杆上是最古老的一例，但也有其他的，

such as locking a credit card away with a key

例如把信用卡用鑰匙鎖着

or not bringing junk food into the house so you won't eat it

或不把垃圾食品帶回家，這樣你便不會吃它，

or unplugging your Internet connection

或拔走互聯網連接,

so you can use your computer.

因此你可以實在使用你的電腦。

I was creating commitment devices of my own

我早在未認識承諾設備之前

long before I knew what they were.

已經創造我自己的承諾設。

So when I was a starving post-doc

當我還是一個身無長物的哥倫比亞大學

at Columbia University,

博士畢業生，

I was deep in a publish-or-perish phase of my career.

當時我的職業生涯是在於發布或滅亡的階段。

I had to write five pages a day

我要為文章

towards papers

每一天寫五頁，

or I would have to give up five dollars.

否則我便要放棄五塊錢。

And when you try to execute these commitment devices,

且當你嘗試執行這些承諾設備的時候，

you realize the devil is really in the details.

你會意識到真正的苦處在於細節。

Because it's not that easy to get rid of five dollars.

因為要擺脫五塊錢不是那麼容易。

I mean, you can't burn it; that's illegal.

我的意思是，你可以不燒它，這是非法的。

And I thought, well I could give it to a charity

我想，我可以把它捐贈給一個慈善機構，

or give it to my wife or something like that.

或把它給我的妻子, 等等。

But then I thought, oh, I'm sending myself mixed messages.

但轉念一想，哦，我是在給予自己混淆的訊息。

Because not writing is bad, but giving to charity is good.

因為不寫作是不好，但給慈善機構是好的。

So then I would kind of justify not writing

以給他人一種賜予, 那麼想

by giving a gift.

我便有理由不寫作。

And then I kind of flipped that around and thought,

然後，我會這樣的翻轉左右思想，

well I could give it to the neo-Nazis.

我可以把它給予新納粹分子。

But then I was like, that's more bad than writing is good,

但我便會想，這其實比寫作更壞，

and so that wouldn't work.

這樣想行不通。

So ultimately, I just decided

所以，最後我決定

I would leave it in an envelope on the subway.

我會把它放入一個信封內並留在地鐵上。

Sometimes a good person would find it,

有時一個好人會找到它，

sometimes a bad person would find it.

有時一個壞人會找到它。

On average, it was just a completely pointless exchange of money

平均而言，它只是一個完全沒有意義掉錢的方法，

that I would regret.

以我至會後悔。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Such it is with commitment devices.

它便是承諾的設備。

But despite my like for them,

但儘管我喜歡它們，

there's two nagging concerns

我一直有兩個

that I've always had about commitment devices,

關於承諾設備的顧慮，

and you might feel this if you use them yourself.

如果你使用它們自己, 你都可能會發覺到。

So the first is,

第一個是，

when you've got one of these devices going,

當你已經有了這些設備，

such as this contract to write everyday or pay,

例如要經常寫作否則要付帳，

it's just a constant reminder

它只是不斷地提醒

that you have no self-control.

你有沒有自我控制的能力。

You're just telling yourself, "Without you, commitment device,

你只是在告訴自己:「如果沒有你，承諾設備，

I am nothing, I have no self-discipline."

我什麼也不是，我不能自律。」

And then when you're ever in a situation

然後當你在一個沒有

where you don't have a commitment device in place --

承諾設備安設的情況--

like, "Oh my God, that person's offering me a doughnut,

「噢我的天，那個人要給我一個甜圈，

and I have no defense mechanism," --

而我沒有任何的防禦機制，」--

you just eat it.

你便把它吃掉了。

So I don't like the way that they take the power away from you.

因此，我並不喜歡它們能夠有遠離你的權力。

I think self-discipline is something, it's like a muscle.

我認為自律是一種東西，它像一塊肌肉。

The more you exercise it, the stronger it gets.

你鍛煉它，它便更強壯。

The other problem with commitment devices

承諾設備的另一個問題是，

is that you can always weasel your way out of them.

你可以耍滑头逃脱它們。

You say, "Well, of course I can't write today,

你會說：「好了，今天我當然不能寫作，

because I'm giving a TEDTalk and I have five media interviews,

因為我要給TEDTalk演說, 以及5家媒體採訪，

and then I'm going to a cocktail party and then I'll be drunk after that.

然後我要去一個雞尾酒會，然後我便會喝醉。

And so there's no way that this is going to work."

所以根本沒有辦法執筆。」

So in effect, you are like Odysseus and the first mate

這樣實際上，你像是奧德修斯和大副

in one person.

混合為一人。

You're putting yourself, you're binding yourself,

你把你自己，你綁定你自己，

and you're weaseling your way out of it,

和你正在滑头地逃脱，

and then you're beating yourself up afterwards.

然而之後你便會責備自己。」

So I've been working

因此我一直在工作了

for about a decade now

近十年，

on finding other ways

在尋找其他的方法

to change people's relationship to the future self

不使用承諾設備來改變

without using commitment devices.

人與未來自的我的關係。

In particular, I'm interested in the relationship

我的興趣特別是在於與

to the future financial self.

未來自我財政的關係。

And this is a timely issue.

這是一個涉及時間的問題。

I'm talking about the topic of saving.

我說的是節儉積蓄的話題。

Now saving is a classic two selves problem.

節能是一個典型的兩個自我的問題。

The present self does not want to save at all.

如今的自我完全不希望儲蓄。

It wants to consume.

它想花費。

Whereas the future self wants the present self to save.

而未來的自我卻希望目前的自我儲蓄。

So this is a timely problem.

這是一個涉及時間的問題。

We look at the savings rate

看看我們的儲蓄率,

and it has been declining since the 1950s.

它自50年代以來一直下降。

At the same time, the Retirement Risk Index,

與此同時，退休風險指數，

the chance of not being able to meet your needs in retirement,

未能在退休後滿足你需求的機會，

has been increasing.

一直在上升。

And we're at a situation now

而現在我們的情況是，

where for every three baby boomers,

每三個嬰兒潮一代的人，

the McKinsey Global Institute predicts

麥肯錫全球研究所預計，

that two will not be able to meet their pre-retirement needs

在他們退休的時候。有兩個將無法

while they're in retirement.

滿足其退休前的需要。

So what can we do about this?

那我們可以做些什麼呢？

There's a philosopher, Derek Parfit,

有一個哲學家，德瑞克•帕菲特，

who said some words that were inspiring to my coauthors and I.

他說了一些對我和我的合著者甚有發啟性話的，

He said that, "We might neglect our future selves

他說: 「我們可能會忽視我們未來的自我，

because of some failure of belief or imagination."

皆因一些失敗的信念或想像力。」

That is to say,

這就是說，

we somehow might not believe that we're going to get old,

我們不知何故可能不相信我們會變老，

or we might not be able to imagine

或我們可能無法想像

that we're going to get old some day.

一天會變老。

On the one hand, it sounds ridiculous.

一方面，這聽上去有些可笑。

Of course, we know that we're going to get old.

當然，我們知道，我們無疑會變老。

But aren't there things that we believe and don't believe at the same time?

我們是不是有一些我們在同一時間相信和不相信的東西呢？

So my coauthors and I have used computers,

所以我和我的合著者使用電腦，

the greatest tool of our time,

我們這個時代最偉大的工具，

to assist people's imagination

以協助人們的想像力，

and help them imagine what it might be like

並幫助他們想像進入未來

to go into the future.

可能會是怎麼樣。

And I'll show you some of these tools right here.

而我會在這裡告訴你其中一些工具。

The first is called the distribution builder.

首先的是所謂分佈的建設。

It shows people what the future might be like

由一百個在未來同樣可能

by showing them a hundred equally probable outcomes

獲得的結果, 它顯示了

that might be obtained in the future.

人在未來的可能。

Each outcome is shown by one of these markers,

每一個結果由這些標誌物顯示，

and each sits on a row

每個坐在一排，

that represents a level of wealth and retirement.

代表了財富和退休的水平。

Being up at the top

在頂部的

means that you're enjoying a high income in retirement.

意味著你退休後享受高的收入。

Being down at the bottom

在底部的

means that you're struggling to make ends meet.

便意味著你掙扎地入不敷出。

When you make an investment,

當你作出投資時，

what you're really saying is, "I accept

你真的是在說:「我接受

that any one of these 100 things

這100件事情中任何的一件

could happen to me and determine my wealth."

都可能會發生在我身上，並會決定我的財富。」

Now you can try to move your outcomes around.

刻下你可以嘗試將你的成果推動攪拌。

You can try to manipulate your fate, like this person is doing,

你可以嘗試操縱自己的命運，這個人便正是這樣做，

but it costs you something to do it.

但你這樣做要有代價。