Think of the planet like a human body that we inhabit.

想像一下我們居住的地球 像是一個人類的身體。

The skeleton is the transportation system of roads and railways,

身體的骨架是運輸系統 有道路和鐵路、

bridges and tunnels, air and seaports

橋樑、隧道、機場、海港

that enable our mobility across the continents.

讓我們可以在世界各國旅行。

The vascular system that powers the body

石油天然氣的管線 像是我們的心血管系統，

are the oil and gas pipelines and electricity grids.

驅動著我們的身體，

that distribute energy.

而電力網路可以運送能量。

And the nervous system of communications

負責溝通的神經系統

is the Internet cables, satellites, cellular networks

有網路纜線、衛星、行動網路、

and data centers that allow us to share information.

以及資料中心可以讓我們分享資訊。

This ever-expanding infrastructural matrix

這個一直不斷擴張的 基礎建設矩陣，

already consists of 64 million kilometers of roads,

已經建造了6400萬公里的道路、

four million kilometers of railways,

400萬公里的鐵路、

two million kilometers of pipelines

200萬公里的管道線路

and one million kilometers of Internet cables.

以及100萬公里的網路纜線。

What about international borders?

那國與國的國界線呢？

We have less than 500,000 kilometers of borders.

我們至少有50萬公里的國界線。

Let's build a better map of the world.

讓我們來建立一個更好的世界地圖。

And we can start by overcoming some ancient mythology.

我們可以從打破一些 古老的錯誤觀念開始。

There's a saying with which all students of history are familiar:

歷史系的學生對這句話都很孰悉：

"Geography is destiny."

＂地緣性決定了命運＂。

Sounds so grave, doesn't it?

聽起來很嚴肅莊重，對吧？

It's such a fatalistic adage.

多麼宿命的一句格言。

It tells us that landlocked countries are condemned to be poor,

它告訴我們，內陸國家就是注定貧窮，

that small countries cannot escape their larger neighbors,

小國與鄰近大國之間

that vast distances are insurmountable.

遙遠的距離是無法逾越的。

But every journey I take around the world,

但在我世界各地的旅程當中，

I see an even greater force sweeping the planet:

我看到了一個更大的 趨勢正在席捲全球：

connectivity.

連結。

The global connectivity revolution, in all of its forms --

全球連結的革命，大致上有這些--

transportation, energy and communications --

運輸、能源、通訊--

has enabled such a quantum leap in the mobility of people,

這些連結使得流動性人口、

of goods, of resources, of knowledge,

貨物、資源、知識， 有了跳躍性的增長，

such that we can no longer even think of geography as distinct from it.

我們再也不會認為地緣性 是造就彼此落差的原因。

In fact, I view the two forces as fusing together

事實上，我看見這兩股力量 正在融合成一個字：

into what I call "connectography."

我稱它為"連結地緣性"現象。

Connectography represents a quantum leap

連結地緣性現象，

in the mobility of people, resources and ideas,

象徵了流動性人口、 資源、想法的大躍進，

but it is an evolution,

但它也是一種演化現象，

an evolution of the world from political geography,

一種世界從法定國界的「政治地緣性」 演化到「地理機能性」的過程。

which is how we legally divide the world,

「地理機能性」實際上談的就是

to functional geography,

我們如何使用這個世界，

which is how we actually use the world,

一種從國家與國界的關係演化到 基礎設施與供應鏈關係的過程。

from nations and borders, to infrastructure and supply chains.

我們的全球系統正在演化，

Our global system is evolving

從19世紀的垂直整合帝國時代，

from the vertically integrated empires of the 19th century,

演化到20世紀的水平 相互依存的國家時代，

through the horizontally interdependent nations of the 20th century,

進入到21世紀的全球網路文明時代。

into a global network civilization in the 21st century.

連結性無關國家主權，

Connectivity, not sovereignty,

它已經變成我們人類 相互連結的組織大綱。

has become the organizing principle of the human species.

（掌聲）

(Applause)

我們正在進入一種 全球網路文明的世代，

We are becoming this global network civilization

因為這完全是由大家一起建立的。

because we are literally building it.

全球的軍事預算加總起來，

All of the world's defense budgets and military spending taken together

每年都不到兩兆美金。

total just under two trillion dollars per year.

同時間，全球的基礎設施費用

Meanwhile, our global infrastructure spending

未來的10年，預計每年將達到9兆美金。

is projected to rise to nine trillion dollars per year

沒錯，本就該如此。

within the coming decade.

我們過去全球有30億人口 仰賴這些基礎建設生活

And, well, it should.

現在已經跨越70億 邁向80億人口的大關，

We have been living off an infrastructure stock

而最終會超過90億人口。

meant for a world population of three billion,

整體而言，全球平均每10億人口，

as our population has crossed seven billion to eight billion

就會有一兆美金的基礎建設開銷。

and eventually nine billion and more.

想當然爾，亞洲就是領頭羊。

As a rule of thumb, we should spend about one trillion dollars

2015年，中國宣布成立

on the basic infrastructure needs of every billion people in the world.

亞洲基礎建設投資銀行， （簡稱：亞投行）

Not surprisingly, Asia is in the lead.

成立宗旨是，連結其它國家

In 2015, China announced the creation

一起建立起 一帶一路的互聯經濟網。

of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank,

一路從上海延伸到 里斯本（葡萄牙首都）

which together with a network of other organizations

而因為這些重大地質工程的發展，

aims to construct a network of iron and silk roads,

我們接下來的40年將會增加很多開銷，

stretching from Shanghai to Lisbon.

接下來40年基礎建設的總開銷

And as all of this topographical engineering unfolds,

將會超過我們過去四千年來的總開銷。

we will likely spend more on infrastructure in the next 40 years,

現在，讓我們停下腳步想一想。

we will build more infrastructure in the next 40 years,

花這麼多錢在建築這些 全球社會的基礎工程上，

than we have in the past 4,000 years.

比起建造出破壞地球的武器

Now let's stop and think about it for a minute.

肯定有更深遠的影響。

Spending so much more on building the foundations of global society

連結性就是一門 我們要如何完善地分配

rather than on the tools to destroy it

全球人力與資源的學問。

can have profound consequences.

它是一門如何讓大家團結起來 不要各自分散資源的學問。

Connectivity is how we optimize the distribution

我相信，這就是現在正在發生的事情。

of people and resources around the world.

連結性在21世紀有股大趨勢：

It is how mankind comes to be more than just the sum of its parts.

全球性的都市化。

I believe that is what is happening.

都市的基礎設施定義了我們。

Connectivity has a twin megatrend in the 21st century:

到2030年前，全球超過三分之二的人口

planetary urbanization.

會居住在城市裡。

Cities are the infrastructures that most define us.

這些人口居住的地方 並不是圖上的小光點，

By 2030, more than two thirds of the world's population

而是延綿好幾百公里的大型島狀光點。

will live in cities.

這裡是我們現在的所在地溫哥華，

And these are not mere little dots on the map,

從卡斯卡迪亞走廊的頂端

but they are vast archipelagos stretching hundreds of kilometers.

跨過美國邊境，向南延申到西雅圖。

Here we are in Vancouver,

科技重鎮矽谷

at the head of the Cascadia Corridor

從舊金山北部延伸到聖荷西，

that stretches south across the US border to Seattle.

橫跨一個海灣來到奧克蘭。

The technology powerhouse of Silicon Valley

洛杉磯城市的延伸帶 經過聖地亞哥

begins north of San Francisco down to San Jose

跨過莫斯哥邊境來到蒂華納。

and across the bay to Oakland.

聖地亞哥和蒂華納 現在共用一個機場航站，

The sprawl of Los Angeles now passes San Diego

讓你可以進出兩邊的國家。

across the Mexican border to Tijuana.

最後，高速鐵路網可能會 連結整個東太平洋。

San Diego and Tijuana now share an airport terminal

美國東北部的超大型都會區， 從波士頓開始經過紐約

where you can exit into either country.

和費城來到華盛頓。

Eventually, a high-speed rail network may connect the entire Pacific spine.

這裡面住了5000萬人口，

America's northeastern megalopolis begins in Boston through New York

目前也有一個高速鐵路計畫。

and Philadelphia to Washington.

但亞洲讓我們真正目睹了 大型都會區的百花齊放。

It contains more than 50 million people

這條連續的光點從東京開始 經過名古屋到大阪，

and also has plans for a high-speed rail network.

裡面超過8000萬的人口，

But Asia is where we really see the megacities coming together.

扛起了日本的主要經濟。

This continuous strip of light from Tokyo through Nagoya to Osaka

它目前是全世界最大的大型城市。

contains more than 80 million people

在中國，人口到達一億的 超大型都會區也很多，

and most of Japan's economy.

北京周邊的環渤海都會區，

It is the world's largest megacity.

上海周邊的長江三角洲都會區，

For now.

與珠江三角洲周邊的都會區，

But in China, megacity clusters are coming together

從香港往北延伸到廣州的都會區。

with populations reaching 100 million people.

在中間，

The Bohai Rim around Beijing,

還有重慶 、 成都特大城市都會區，

The Yangtze River Delta around Shanghai

它們的地形面積幾乎與 奧地利這個國家差不多。

and the Pearl River Delta,

而這些大型都會區，

stretching from Hong Kong north to Guangzhou.

每一區都將近有二兆美金的GDP--

And in the middle,

幾乎與今日的印度相當。

the Chongqing-Chengdu megacity cluster,

所以，想像一下，如果我們的 全球外交機構，像是G20高峰會，

whose geographic footprint is almost the same size

是用經濟規模而不是用國家代表

as the country of Austria.

來做為入會資格的話。

And any number of these megacity clusters

有一些中國的大型城市， 有許都會有一席之地，

has a GDP approaching two trillion dollars --

而像阿根廷和印尼這樣的 國家就沒有位子了。

that's almost the same as all of India today.

我們來談談印度， 它的人口即將超越中國，

So imagine if our global diplomatic institutions, such as the G20,

它也有一些超大型都會區，

were to base their membership on economic size

像是首都德里都會區

rather than national representation.

和孟買。

Some Chinese megacities may be in and have a seat at the table,

在中東，

while entire countries, like Argentina or Indonesia would be out.

大德黑蘭都會區容納了 三分之一伊朗的人口。

Moving to India, whose population will soon exceed that of China,

埃及的8000萬人口

it too has a number of megacity clusters,

大部分都住在開羅和 亞歷山大之間的走廊。

such as the Delhi Capital Region

而海灣、項鍊型的 衛星城市也正在成型，

and Mumbai.

像是巴林和卡達，

In the Middle East,

通過阿拉伯聯合大公國 到阿曼的馬斯卡特的都會區。

Greater Tehran is absorbing one third of Iran's population.

然後還有拉各斯都會區，

Most of Egypt's 80 million people

在非洲最大的城市和 奈及利亞的商業中心，

live in the corridor between Cairo and Alexandria.

有一個鐵路網的規劃，

And in the gulf, a necklace of city-states is forming,

它在大西洋沿岸走廊 扮演了重要的角色，

from Bahrain and Qatar,

鐵路橫跨了貝寧、多哥和加納拉伸，

through the United Arab Emirates to Muscat in Oman.

到阿比讓，象牙海岸的首都。

And then there's Lagos,

但是，這些國家都是拉各斯的城郊。

Africa's largest city and Nigeria's commercial hub.

在大型城市的世界裡，

It has plans for a rail network

國家會變成這些城市的城郊。

that will make it the anchor of a vast Atlantic coastal corridor,

到2030年前，全球將會有 50個像這樣的超大型都會區。

stretching across Benin, Togo and Ghana,

所以，哪一種地圖給你的資訊比較多？

to Abidjan, the capital of the Ivory Coast.

是掛在我們自家牆上

But these countries are suburbs of Lagos.

傳統的200個獨立國家的地圖，

In a megacity world,

還是這一張有50個 超大型都會區的地圖？

countries can be suburbs of cities.

當然，即使這樣仍不夠完整，

By 2030, we will have as many as 50 such megacity clusters in the world.

因為，如果你沒有了解 它們彼此的連結性關係，

So which map tells you more?

你也不會了解各別的大型城市。

Our traditional map of 200 discrete nations

人們搬到城市裡被連結起來，

that hang on most of our walls,

而連結性造就了這些城市的繁榮。

or this map of the 50 megacity clusters?

其中任何一個城市，如聖保羅或 伊斯坦布爾或莫斯科，

And yet, even this is incomplete

它們的GDP都已經高達或超過 整個國家GDP的1/3到50%。

because you cannot understand any individual megacity

但同樣重要的是，

without understanding its connections to the others.

如果你不了解它們的人流、金流、科技

People move to cities to be connected,

這些使它們繁榮的原因，

and connectivity is why these cities thrive.

你也無法計算它們的個別價值。

Any number of them, such as Sao Paulo or Istanbul or Moscow,

以南非的豪登省為例，

has a GDP approaching or exceeding one third of one half

它包含了約翰尼斯堡 與首都比勒陀利亞。

of their entire national GDP.

它的GDP表現也超過 1/3的南非總體GDP。

But equally importantly,

但同樣重要的是，它出名的特色還有

you cannot calculate any of their individual value

就是幾乎每一個跨國企業

without understanding the role of the flows of people,

都有在南非做直接投資。

of finance, of technology

當然，也包含投資整個非洲大陸。

that enable them to thrive.

每個城市都想成為 全球價值鏈的一份子。

Take the Gauteng province of South Africa,

它們都想成為「全球分工」的一份子。

which contains Johannesburg and the capital Pretoria.

這是每個城市都在想的事。

It too represents just over a third of South Africa's GDP.

我從未遇過一個市長跟我說，

But equally importantly, it is home to the offices

「我想讓我的城市被排除掉」。

of almost every single multinational corporation

他們知道，他們的城市 也是全球網路文明的一部分，

that invests directly into South Africa

就如同它們是 自己國家的一部分一樣。

and indeed, into the entire African continent.

現今，有很多人對都市化的現象很灰心。

Cities want to be part of global value chains.

他們認為這些城市正在破壞地球。

They want to be part of this global division of labor.

但如今，

That is how cities think.

已經有超過200個網際城市 了解到互聯可以帶來繁榮。

I've never met a mayor who said to me,

這個數字

"I want my city to be cut off."

與我們的政府組織一樣多。

They know that their cities belong as much

所有的這些網際城市的互動 都致力於一個目標，

to the global network civilization as to their home countries.

人類21世紀的首重之重：

Now, for many people, urbanization causes great dismay.

永續的城市發展。

They think cities are wrecking the planet.

有成效了嗎？

But right now,

我們看一下氣候變化。

there are more than 200 intercity learning networks thriving.

我們知道，紐約與巴黎 一次又一次的氣候大會

That is as many as the number of intergovernmental organizations

也無法降低溫室效應氣體的排放。

that we have.

但我們可以看到， 城市間的運輸科技與知識

And all of these intercity networks are devoted to one purpose,

還有政策，已經讓我們開始了解

mankind's number one priority in the 21st century:

如何降低對碳排放的濃度。

sustainable urbanization.

城市間彼此學習。

Is it working?

如何設計零排放的建築，

Let's take climate change.

如何配置電動車共乘系統。

We know that summit after summit in New York and Paris

在中國的主要城市中，

is not going to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

他們已經開始限制 路上汽車的配額。

But what we can see is that transferring technology

在很多西方的城市，

and knowledge and policies between cities

年輕人甚至已經不想開車了。

is how we've actually begun to reduce the carbon intensity of our economies.

城市曾經是問題製造者，

Cities are learning from each other.

現在它們是提供解決方法的一份子。

How to install zero-emissions buildings,

要達成永續城市發展， 不平等也是要面對的挑戰之一。

how to deploy electric car-sharing systems.

當我在這些大型都會區旅行時--

In major Chinese cities,

花了幾個小時或幾天--

they're imposing quotas on the number of cars on the streets.

我體驗到同一地區

In many Western cities,

也有極不公平的事。

young people don't even want to drive anymore.

即使我們全球股市的資產

Cities have been part of the problem,

已經高達將近300兆美金。

now they are part of the solution.

這大約是全球GDP的四倍。

Inequality is the other great challenge to achieving sustainable urbanization.

我們從金融海嘯後 也創造了龐大的債務，

When I travel through megacities from end to end --

但我們對他們已有相對等的投資嗎？

it takes hours and days --

不，還沒有。

I experience the tragedy of extreme disparity

只有當我們蓋好夠多、 夠便宜的大眾住宅，

within the same geography.

投資大量的運輸網路

And yet, our global stock of financial assets

讓人們可以進行實體與 數位上的溝通連結，

has never been larger,

到那時候，所有的城市與社會，

approaching 300 trillion dollars.

才會感受到彼此的溫暖。

That's almost four times the actual GDP of the world.

（掌聲）

We have taken on such enormous debts since the financial crisis,

這也是為什麼基礎設施的發展

but have we invested them in inclusive growth?

會成為聯合國永續發展的目標之一，

No, not yet.

因為這讓所有人都受益。

Only when we build sufficient, affordable public housing,

我們的政治和財經領導人

when we invest in robust transportation networks

已經瞭解到，連結性並不是做慈善，

to allow people to connect to each other both physically and digitally,

它是機會。

that's when our divided cities and societies

這也是為什麼我們的財政界需要了解

will come to feel whole again.

連結是21世紀最重要的學習課程。

(Applause)

現在，城市可以讓世界更具有永續發展性，

And that is why infrastructure has just been included

它們讓世界更公平，

in the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals,

我也相信城市間的連結

because it enables all the others.

可以讓世界更和平。

Our political and economic leaders

如果我們專注世界各區 跨國間緊密關係的發展，

are learning that connectivity is not charity,

我們會看到更多的貿易、更多的投資

it's opportunity.

與更多的穩定性。

And that's why our financial community needs to understand

我們都知道第二次世界大戰之後，

that connectivity is the most important asset class of the 21st century.

歐洲工業蓬勃發展的故事，

Now, cities can make the world more sustainable,

帶來了歐盟今日和平的發展。

they can make the world more equitable,

還有，你可以看到俄羅斯，

I also believe that connectivity between cities

是最後一個與國際系統接軌的重要強國。

can make the world more peaceful.

要解釋今日全球的緊張局勢 會花很多的時間。

If we look at regions of the world with dense relations across borders,

在系統中的國家，

we see more trade, more investment

彼此的憎恨已經逐漸減少，

and more stability.

在北美，地圖上最重要的一條線，

We all know the story of Europe after World War II,