a number of journalists asked me:

很多媒體朋友都問我說：

"Mr.Chang, are you convinced that cloud computing will be successful in Taiwan?"

「那張政委，你對於台灣雲端運算 是不是很有希望一定會推成功？」

To be honest, the answer was no.

老實說，我心裡面答案是 一點都沒有信心

It wasn't that we had no hope for success at all,

成功的希望其實不敢說 非常渺茫，但是非常挑戰

but it was definitely very challenging.

為什麼呢？剛才其實 我們的 Ben 已經講了很多

Why is that so?

換腦袋……換腦袋本來就不容易的事情 對不對？很多觀念

Actually Ben already touched on this topic.

所以我今天要跟大家報告一下 我們碰到什麼挑戰

Changing minds really isn't easy, right?

我們腦袋裡面什麼觀念要換

So many preconceptions.

第一個問題

So what I want to report today are the challenges that we encountered,

東西要擺到外面去 不要擺到自己家裡面，安不安全？

and what are the preconceptions that we need to change.

那我們先不要講雲端 我們先說 50 年至 100 年前 銀行剛開門的時候

The first question:

我們家裡面的老阿公老阿嬤

Is it safe to store our data on the cloud?

要把自己家裡面原來放在 床底下的鈔票拿去銀行裡面

Let's put the Cloud aside for a while.

是面臨一樣的問題

Let's first talk about 50, 100 years ago, when banks first opened.

存到銀行裡面去以後 甚至早年有人說

Our old folks who lived through that time

「唷！我去領錢的時候還我一張鈔票， 這鈔票不是我當初存進去那張鈔票耶！」

were taking money out from under the bed and depositing them into the banks.

（笑声）

They were faced with a similar question.

今天一樣的問題

After putting money into the banks, some folks even commented on the fact that

今天，你說我放一個電腦 到一個雲端的資料中心去

the bills which they drew from the bank

我用到的這個電腦根本 跟我放進去的說不定根本是不一樣的機器

weren't the exact same notes that they deposited!

有人會說我用的不是 我當初擺進去那部機器，我好像吃虧了

We face the same problem today

那當初你那張鈔票放到銀行裡面去的時候

Today, I can put a computer into a data center.

人家還你一張比較新的 從來沒有人覺得說當初吃虧了，對不對

But when I'm accessing the data center, I may not be using the same computer.

所以我們現在回到今天這個境界

Some may feel that they lost out because they don't get to use their own computer.

我說好，那你覺得今天要很多人 把家裡面很多的金銀財寶

But when you deposit an old bill into the bank

放到銀行保險箱去，他怎麼敢放出去？

and get a new bill in return, you wouldn't think of that as "losing out"

因為銀行保證你一個 更安全的環境，對不對？

So let's come back to present day.

今天也是一樣

Today, people who have lots of gold and jewellery

今天我們說我們把我們的東西 擺到雲端的這個網路 跟雲端的電腦上面去

wants to deposit them at the bank. Why?

當然，這些業者要能夠保證 比你家裡面更安全的一個環境

Because the bank promises to give you a safer environment than your home, right?

那這當然你就會問說，那我 自己公司裡面安全可以做到滴水不漏

It's the same thing today.

我盡我的每一分力量 難道雲端的這些業者可以嗎？

Today, when we put our data onto the cloud,

當然，剛剛我們 Ben 說了 他要是不可以，他就不要吃這行飯了 對不對，所以當然要可以

the operators have to be able to give you a safer environment than your home.

第二，那個雲端的資料中心很花電，很費水

Then you might ask me: I can control everything at my own company

我們宏碁以前那一棟 5 層樓的機房， 一年的電費要 4 億新台幣

and make sure that my data is secure.

地下室的儲水槽有 6000 噸的水

Can a cloud operator do the same?

人家說，那這個一點都不環保，對不對？

Like Ben said just now, if he couldn't

可是，各位我問問你

then he wouldn't be doing this for a living. So of course he can.

今天我們為什麼鼓勵 大家坐公車坐公共運輸？

Second myth: the utilities at cloud data centers are very expensive

公共運輸你一公升的 柴油汽油能夠跑幾公里？

The electric bill at Acer's data center is 400 million Taiwanese Dollars every year.

跑 2 公里了不起

Our basement water tank holds 6000 tons of water.

你自己的這個油電車 1 公升跑個 10 公里 蠻有可能的，對不對？

Some people say that this is not environmentally friendly.

為什麼我們鼓勵大家 去坐公車，不要開私家車？

But let me ask you.

因為公車有這經濟規模

Why do we encourage people to take buses nowadays?

同樣地，今天我們鼓勵大家 把這電腦全部擺到雲端資料中心裡面

How far can a bus run on a liter of fuel?

透過雲端資料中心的經濟規模的運轉 可以讓你做到每一個電腦用的水跟電都比較少

2 kilometers if you're lucky

但是有人說，像我們以前的老闆 我們的王振堂董事長就說：

With your own hybrid car you can probably go 10km on that same liter of fuel.

「可是現在有這企業的社會責任， 在算碳足跡的時候，全部都算在宏碁頭上， 怎麼可以呢？」

Then why are we encouraging you to take the bus instead of driving your car?

當然，這個碳足跡的算法 還沒有大家一個公用的作法

Because the bus has the economy of scale.

當然碳足跡不可以 算在宏碁一個人頭上

Likewise, today we are encouraging people to put their computers into data centers

要算到誰頭上？

and through the economy of scale in the data center

這個資料中心裡面有誰在用 用多少電，照比例去分攤那個碳足跡

we can reduce the average amount of power and water used up by individual computers.

同樣地，今天如果說 Google 到你剛剛所說彰濱工業區設資料中心

But some people like my previous boss, Chairman J.T. Wang says:

那也是一樣，Google 這資料中心 我估計他以後一年電費 大概至少 20 億跑不掉

"But then all that carbon footprint becomes Acer's! That's unacceptable!"

那這個碳足跡算到誰身上？ 算到 Google 身上？或是算到台灣身上？

It's true that we don't yet have a standardized way

不行，說不定這個 Google 的資料中心 服務了亞洲，日本、韓國這些國家

of calculating carbon footprint.

碳足跡要算到韓國、日本身上 絕對不能算到台灣身上

But of course Acer alone can't bear the entire carbon footprint.

台灣是在替整個世界的環保盡一份力量 從這個資料中心的觀點來講

So who should bear it?

什麼挑戰？剛才講到軟體 所以軟體有什麼問題？

The carbon footprint should be apportioned

各位你看報紙，這個我們的 張惠妹（阿妹）的演唱會開賣

to the users of the data center based on how much electricity they use.

那個票還沒有賣完以前電腦先當機

Similarly for Google's data center in Chang Hua County, which you mentioned.

幾年以前，農曆年除夕的 火車票還沒有賣完以前

That's the same thing.

那個賣票的伺服器先當機

Google's annual electric bill will be at least 2 billion for sure.

這些都不是硬體的問題 這些都是軟體的問題

So whose carbon footprint is it? Google's? Or Taiwan's?

當年，大家說可是 你看，我們現在開始

Google may be using this data center to serve other Asian countries

鼓勵大家寫這些應用 手機上面的應用，對不對？

like Japan or Korea.

那會寫應用這個軟體有什麼難的呢？

The carbon footprint should go to them, not Taiwan.

各位，我請問你，憤怒鳥 在你手機裡面跑憤怒鳥的時候

Taiwan is doing it's part for the environment by running this data center.

那個軟體幾個人在用？ 你一個人在用，對不對？

What about challenges?

我請問你，賣火車票 除夕火車票在開賣的時候

We talked about software.

多少人在搶火車票？

What's wrong with software?

至少上千上萬人在搶火車票

If you read the papers, you'd know that

一個軟體同時給一萬個人用，給一個人用 這寫軟體的方式是絕對不一樣的

when we were selling tickets for A-Mei's concert,

台灣有沒有這個能力呢？

the computer hanged before we could finish selling the tickets.

一個大問號，不知道

A few years ago, we were selling train tickets for the eve of Chinese New Year.

那你說我們台灣要不要來做呢？

But the server hanged before we could finish selling.

我先說這個，你如果看到 Google 的 Gmail

These are not hardware problems. They are software issues.

大家說電子郵件好不好寫？ 電子郵件是最基本的一個功能，好像很好寫

We see a lot of apps being written by almost everyone nowadays and so we ask:

各位，你如果看到 Gmail 有多少人 Google 公司裡面有多少人在寫

If you could write handphone apps, then why not software?

你就不會想再去做一個 電子郵件跟他競爭了

Let me ask you, when you're running Angry Birds on your handphone,

我跟你，大概我們從來 沒有去過 Gmail 的部門

how many people are using that software? Just you, right?

Gmail 部門大概自己 佔了一棟房子差不多

But when we are selling train tickets on the eve of Chinese New year

所以這個就是說 要開發這些軟體不是這麼簡單

how many people are trying to buy those tickets?

最重要的是說，交易行為本身 技術上就還沒有一個解決方案

At least thousands if not tens of thousands.

甚麼叫交易行為呢？

A software meant for thousands of simultaneous users

就是說，剛剛講火車票 除夕下午的黃金時間

is very different from a software written for just one user.

那一班太魯閣號只有 8 節車廂，400 個人

Does Taiwan have this capability then?

這 400 張票同時有一萬個人在搶

That's a good question. No one knows the answer.

這個時候，每個位置一瞬間會被賣掉

So should Taiwan do it?

資料庫裡面的資料馬上變掉

Let's talk about Google's Gmail first.

這個時候，你說我把資料庫拷貝 10 份、20 份 讓他同時很多人去讀取

Is email software programming easy?

對不起，瞬間之間 一個票一個位置的票賣掉

It's a very basic function and writing it seems to be pretty easy.

資料庫裡面馬上去更新說 這個票不能再賣給第二個人

But if you see how many people in Google are working on Gmail

這個時候你怎麼把資料庫拷貝 10 份、20 份，讓它同時給很多人去上

you wouldn't want to try and create a competing email software.

這個技術瓶頸短期內 還沒有辦法解決

You and I may have never been to Gmail.

所以其實沒有那麼簡單 一點都不簡單

The Gmail department by itself pretty much takes up an entire building.

最後，我們台灣的機會在哪裡？

So this tells us that developing software isn't so easy.

大家都知道說，雲端從底層的基礎設施 到中間的平臺，到應用

Most importantly, transactional behavior is a problem without a technical solution.

當你從底下往上走的時候 這個特性會再變的

What is transactional behavior?

底下基礎設施，譬如說賣很多伺服器 這個時候產值很大，以產值為訴求

Let's go back to the train tickets. On the eve of Chinese New Year

但是你寫到最後這個 應用軟體的時候，它價值很高

the most popular Taroko Express has 8 cars, 400 seats.

譬如說我們講我們的健保軟體，我請問你， 我們寫一套健保軟體，全世界可以賣幾套？

Ten thousand people are fighting for these 400 tickets.

只賣台灣這一套 因為只有台灣在做我們的健保

Every seat was snatched up in an instant.

大陸的健保、美國的健保根本完全不一樣

The data in the database is changing constantly.

我們的健保從一代到二代馬上改 我們的軟體馬上跟著改

At the same time you want me to make 10, 20 copies of the data for multiple users?

你希望這健保軟體可以賣第二套嗎？

Sorry, can't be done.

門兒都沒有，世界上沒有第二套的

Within an instant all the seats are sold out.

但是呢，你說這健保軟體有沒有價值？

The database must be updated immediately so the same ticket isn't sold twice.

當然有價值，你在看病的時候就靠這軟體 全台灣都靠這軟體

How can you, at the same time, make so many copies of the data?

價值非常明顯，可是產值呢？

This technical bottleneck has no solution in the short term.

大概就是當初健保局給某個公司

So it's actually not that simple, not simple at all.

不知道幾塊錢做這套軟體 一點產值都沒有

Lastly, where is Taiwan's opportunity?

反過來呢，我剛剛講的說，這個伺服器

We know that the Cloud has infrastructure, platform and application software.

全世界賣了幾萬套，幾十萬套 都有可能上百萬套

Each of these links on the value chain has different characteristics.

可是呢，我們說 A 牌到 B 牌的 伺服器其實沒有差那麼多

You can sell a lot of servers so your main aim is to increase volume.

所以這個裡面大家強調是這個產值

But when you talk about software, that's a high value product.

那我們現在要去開發這些應用軟體

For example our healthcare system. How many copies can you sell?

很多人都問我說 我們台灣有沒有機會？

Just one.

我說，台灣或許有機會或許沒機會

Because only Taiwan is using this software.

我們要開發應用軟體去 造福我們的健保的人

The healthcare of mainland China and USA are completely different.

造福我們以後電子發票的人

We are switching to our second generation healthcare system soon.

這個時候，我們要講一句 以前鄧小平講過的話

You think you can sell a second copy of this system?

「黑貓白貓，只要會抓老鼠的都是好貓。」

No way. There won't be a second sale.

不管是本土的產品非本土的產品 只要幫我們把健保軟體做出來

But is this healthcare software valuable?

讓我們看病順順利利的 它對我們就有價值

Certainly.

所以我們先用不管國內國外的軟體 先把我們要給大家的這個福利做出來

The whole of Taiwan is relying on this software when we go to the doctor's.

然後有一天我們摸清楚說 原來國外的軟體是這麼一個運作法

The value is very obvious. But what about volume?

我們再如法炮製做一個國內的 有一天把它換掉

I don't know which company the project was awarded to

但是我們最後的目的就是要讓我們應用在雲端上能夠推展，讓大家每個人都舒舒服服地

or how much they were paid, but there's no volume to speak of.

最好是不要看病，但是一旦你要看病 就是很簡單，沒有什麼資料不通的問題

On the other hand, we were speaking of servers.

你要買火車票的時候，可以說，再長的假期 你也可以一秒鐘裡面買到你要的火車票

We've sold hundreds of thousands, perhaps even millions of servers around the world.

不要一天到晚聽到說：「對不起，請你 5 分鐘以後等一會兒再上機，因為現在主機正在忙。」

But there's basically no difference between brand A and brand B.

以後我們再不希望看到這些畫面。謝謝！

That's why we put the emphasis on production volume.

（鼓掌）

As for developing application softwares

many people ask me: Does Taiwan stand a chance?

Maybe.

Maybe not.

We must develop software to benefit those who use healthcare

to help those who take electronic receipts.

At this time, I'd like to quote Deng Xiao Ping

"Be it a black cat or a white cat, a cat that can catch mice is a good cat".

Whether a product is domestic or imported doesn't matter

as long as it gives us good healthcare

and allows us to see the doctor with no fuss, then it is valuable to us.

It doesn't matter who made the software,

first we must ensure that we deliver on welfare

and then one day when we figure out how the imported software is made

we can clone it domestically and replace it.

But our final goal is to implement Cloud technology

so that when you have to visit the doctor

your visit is a smooth one, with no data issues.

When you buy your train tickets it won't matter how popular the date is

you can still buy your ticket within a second.

Instead of always seeing messages like

"Sorry, the server is busy right now, please try again in five minutes."

Let's hope never to see such messages again.

Thank you. (Applause)