I'm gonna tell you something about what's happening in the car industry.

嗨，是的

And I thought let's...

我要告訴大家一些車輛產業的動向

Let's have the first picture put on the screen.

那我想就…

This car.

就請大家看螢幕上的第一張圖

I'd like to see some hands.

這台車

Who already has seen this car on the road?

有在路上看過這台車的人請舉個手

Who knows this car?

誰知道這台車？

Okay. That's quite a lot.

好，還蠻多人的

Well...

嗯…

A friend of mine has one.

我朋友有一台

And...

當我們聊到這台車時

When I talk with him about it, he's..

他都會特別興奮

He's always super enthusiastic.

他說：「這台車加速超快！」

He says "Yeah, this car, it just accelerates like hell!"

「太讚了！」

"It's crazy!"

「還有這麼大的螢幕！」

"And it has this huge screen!"

「我還可以下載應用程式在車上。」

"And I can download apps on it."

「車上還能上網。」

"And I can surf the web."

「真是太棒了！」

"It's amazing!"

「它不只是一台電動車。」

"It's not just an electric car."

「除了電動外還有很多性能。」

"It doesn't drive electric. It's more than that."

然後…

And...

當然也有冷靜的人

Well, there are also the non-enthusiasts.

會說：「它是有不少補助沒錯。」

And I say "Well yeah, but it's heavily subsidized."

「但沒有成長空間。」

"And that will never grow."

「還要充電好幾個小時。」

"And it still charges in hours."

這些都會改變的

Well that's gonna change.

這也是我今天要談的

And that's what I'm talking about today.

我的背景是什麼呢？

Em...

我是荷蘭法斯奈德的執行長與創辦人

What's my background?

法斯奈德是 設置快速充電站的公司

I'm CEO and founder of Fastned.

就像這個

Fastned builds charging stations.

就像一般的加油站

Like this.

充電站設置在公路旁

Just like a regular gas station.

你只要駛離公路

They're situated along the highway.

開進充電站

And you can just exit the highway,

插上插頭

go into the charging station,

按開始充電鈕

put the plug in the car,

二十分鐘後就充飽電了

press start

這樣做的好處是

and 20 minutes later the car is full.

電動車駕駛可以 開往任何自己喜歡的地方

What that will do is that will give

就像汽油車一樣

electric vehicles drivers the freedom to drive wherever they like,

你為什麼買車？

just like a gasoline car.

你買車是因為可以隨心所欲

Why do you buy a car?

這就是你想買車的原因

You buy a car because it gives you freedom.

也是我們想實現的目標

That's why you want it.

基本上就像殼牌和英國石油

And that's what we're going to do.

設置加油站一樣

Basically the same as Shell or BP that puts on

那為什麼我覺得這個產業

gasoline stations.

邁向柯達一刻呢？

So why do I think that this industry

柯達是很經典的一個例子

is headed towards this Kodak moment?

因為柯達用數位相機 瓦解了攝影產業

Kodak is the classical example of

再來看車輛產業

the photography industry being disrupted by the digital camera.

看看電動車的發展

And what we see here,

某種程度上是一樣的

what we see happening with the electric car

車子走向電動化

is to some extent the same.

變成電器

We see cars becoming electric.

完全不同於

It's becoming an electric appliance.

我們在機械產品中 常見的過程和經驗曲線

And it follows a totally different course

例如和我們熟知的汽車不一樣

and experience curve than we are used to from mechanical products

這項電器

like the current fossil fuel car that we know.

在成本曲線上的表現

And this electric appliance

就像你家的液晶電視一樣

it just goes through a cost curve

或是數位相機的改良一樣

that you know from the LCD TV that you have at home,

產品一年比一年好

from the improvement that we've seen in digital cameras.

這是一種突破性發展

Year on year these products get better and better and better.

高度的突破性發展

And that is disruptive.

你看太陽能板

That's highly disruptive.

在荷蘭有越來越多的房子

If you look at solar panels,

在屋頂上放太陽能板

more and more houses in the Netherlands,

為什麼要這樣做呢？

they are putting solar panels on their roofs.

那是因為

Why are they doing that?

這曲線不斷下滑

Well, because of this:

每年太陽能板的改良率

this curve going down, down, down.

約百分之二十左右

Year on year improvements in solar cells

一年百分之二十 就是讓它更好、更便宜等等

are around 20%.

也就是說

20% per year to get cheaper, better, etc.

如果每年都有這樣改善

And what that means,

到時就能低於市電平價

if you do that every year,

到時太陽發電能源

at some point, you'll cross that line of grid parity.

將比電力公司的電便宜

At some point, your energy from the solar panels

電池也是一樣

will become cheaper than

電池是電動車的主要成本

the energy that you can buy from the grid.

電池會越來越便宜

And the same is happening with batteries.

我們已經在數位相機上看到實例

The batteries, that's the main cost component of our electric car,

數位相機越做越好

they're getting cheaper and cheaper every day.

儲存容量越來越多

We've seen the same from digital cameras.

像素越來越高

Digital cameras got better.

在十年間，使用率從零到百分之百

They got more capacity of photos.

一開始有攝影師不喜歡相機

They got more megapixels.

他們現在卻很愛用

In 10 years, the industry went from 0 to 100% adoption.

電動車也會有同樣發展

When the photographers didn't like

能更快速充電

the camera in the beginning,

也會越來越普及

they now love it.

雖然發展不會和數位相機一樣快

And we see the same happening with electric cars.

但每年約會有百分之二十的成長

They will charge faster.

我想若套用在車輛產業

They will have more range.

就會有這樣的發展

And it's not as fast as the digital camera in development,

這是截取自汽車畫刊

but it will be around 20% per year.

是一本德國汽車雜誌

And I think, if we translate that to the car industry,

這本雜誌簡述一些看法

this is what we see happening:

或者應該說

this was an extract of the Auto Bild,

德國人對於引進特斯拉電動車的想法

a German car magazine.

上個月

It basically states the opinion,

特斯拉在荷蘭賣了289輛

or let's say how the Germans thought about the introduction of the Tesla.

型號S的電動車

Last month,

同一個月 寶馬和奧迪共賣了

Tesla sold 289 vehicles in the Netherlands

244輛奧迪A6及寶馬五系列

of the type Model S.

這就是我說的突破性發展

In that same month, BMW and Audi combined sold...

這一、二年間 電動車有了相當的市場佔有率

244 Audi A6 and BMW 5 series.

在高級房車市場已經如此

That's what I call disruption.

除了價錢

In 1 or 2 years, you got a serious market share.

還有什麼

It's already happening in this luxury segment.

為什麼可以突破？

Then besides price,

你可以在家充電動車

what else,

家用電非常便宜

why would it be disruptive?

你只要插上牆上的插頭就可以了

An electric car, you can charge it at home.

這能鼓勵大眾買車

And at home, electricity is very cheap.

為什麼呢？

You can basically put your car in a wall socket.

如果你開一百公里只花二歐元

It's a huge incentive for people to buy a car. Why?

你家附近也有自己的停車位

If you drive it for 2 Euros for 100 km,

這樣就說得通了

and you have your own parking space for your car near your home,

基本上你買電動車的邊際成本是零

that makes a lot of sense.

所以整個電動車的成本比率

You basically get a 0 marginal cost product.

和汽車完全不一樣

So the whole cost perception of the product of an electric car

因此會有所突破

will be totally different than a gasoline car.

最後將走向這個趨勢

And that will be disruptive.

在未來的十到十五年間

This is what's gonna happen in the end.

我們將看到市場快速成長

What we will see is in the coming 10 to 15 years,

現在這個市場

we will see this market accelerate

一年成長百分之五十或一百

Today this market is growing

之後會再加速成長

at 50 or 100% per year.

再過幾年會戲劇性的成長

And that will accelerate.

也就是說

And it will go through the hockey stick in the coming years.

最後加油站會慢慢式微

And that means that in the end,

現有的車廠正坐以待斃

gasoline stations will be disrupted.

也將慢慢式微

The existing car brands that are sitting ducks,

只有車廠開啟電動車之路

they will be disrupted as well.

開始研發

Only car brands that will really really step in,

他們就能達陣

and today start their development,

繼續走下去

they will get there,

謝謝大家

they will be able to go along.

（掌聲）

Thank you very much.

(Applause)