We're in a clean energy revolution.

我們處於潔淨能源革命之中。

And where I live in Berkeley, California,

在我居住的加州柏克萊，

it seems like every day I see a new roof with new solar panels going up,

我幾乎每一天都能看到 新鋪上太陽能板的屋頂，

electric car in the driveway.

電動車在路上奔馳。

Germany sometimes gets half its power from solar,

德國有時能有一半能源來自太陽能，

and India is now committed to building 10 times more solar

印度現正籌備建設的 太陽能發電裝置數量，

than we have in California,

比加州在2022年將建成的

by the year 2022.

還要多10倍。

Even nuclear seems to be making a comeback.

甚至核能似乎都捲土重來了。

Bill Gates is in China working with engineers,

比爾·蓋茨在中國與工程師們合作，

there's 40 different companies that are working together

40家公司一起合作

to try to race to build the first reactor that runs on waste,

試圖爭先建造第一個 依靠核廢料運行的反應堆，

that can't melt down

它的爐心不會熔化，

and is cheaper than coal.

而且比煤更便宜。

And so you might start to ask:

所以，你可能會想問：

Is this whole global warming problem

那麼全球暖化問題

going to be a lot easier to solve than anybody imagined?

真的比任何人想像中都要容易解決嗎？

That was the question we wanted to know,

這是我們想知道的問題，

so my colleagues and I decided to take a deep dive into the data.

所以我和同事決定深入研究數據。

We were a little skeptical of some parts

我們對潔淨能源革命的故事

of the clean energy revolution story,

其中有某些地方有點疑問。

but what we found really surprised us.

但是研究的結果卻讓我們感到驚訝。

The first thing is that clean energy has been increasing.

第一件事就是 潔淨能源的使用一直在增加。

This is electricity from clean energy sources over the last 20 years.

這是潔淨能源過去的20年發電量

But when you look at the percentage of global electricity

但是，當你看全球電力的百分比

from clean energy sources,

來自潔淨能源的部分，

it's actually been in decline from 36 percent to 31 percent.

實際上一直在下降， 從36％到31％。

And if you care about climate change,

如果你在乎氣候變化，

you've got to go in the opposite direction

你會覺得我們需要逆轉這個趨勢，

to 100 percent of our electricity from clean energy sources,

我們需要盡快把清潔能源所佔的

as quickly as possible.

發電比例提升到100%

Now, you might wonder,

現在，你可能會問，

"Come on, how much could five percentage points of global electricity be?"

“嘿！全球電力的5%能有多少嘛？“

Well, it turns out to be quite a bit.

事實上，這並不少。

It's the equivalent of 60 nuclear plants

而是相當於60座，加州最後的發電廠

the size of Diablo Canyon, California's last nuclear plant,

代阿布洛峽谷核電廠的發電量，

or 900 solar farms the size of Topaz,

或900座加州托帕石太陽能電廠的發電量，

which is one of the biggest solar farms in the world,

這可是世界上最大的太陽能電廠。

and certainly our biggest in California.

當然也是加州最大的。

A big part of this is simply that fossil fuels are increasing

圖中大部分的區域顯示，

faster than clean energy.

化石燃料持續增加， 比潔淨能源還快。

And that's understandable.

這是可以理解的，

There's just a lot of poor countries

還有很多貧窮國家

that are still using wood and dung and charcoal

仍在使用木材、糞便和木炭

as their main source of energy,

作為主要的能源要來源，

and they need modern fuels.

他們需要現代燃料。

But there's something else going on,

但還有別的事情，

which is that one of those clean energy sources in particular

那就是， 有一項潔淨能源的數據

has actually been on the decline in absolute terms,

從絕對數值來看，其實一直在下降，

not just relatively.

不只是相對數值，

And that's nuclear.

這就是核能。

You can see its generation has declined seven percent

你可以看到核電發電量 在過去的10年

over the last 10 years.

下降了百分之七。

Now, solar and wind have been making huge strides,

現在，太陽能和風能 已經有了巨大的進步，

so you hear a lot of talk about how it doesn't really matter,

所以你聽到了很多演講， 說核能其實並不重要，

because solar and wind is going to make up the difference.

因為太陽能和風能足以彌補差額。

But the data says something different.

但數據顯示並非如此。

When you combine all the electricity from solar and wind,

當你把所有太陽和風能相加，

you see it actually barely makes up half of the decline from nuclear.

你看它實際上只能勉強彌補 核能下降值的一半。

Let's take a closer look in the United States.

讓我們來檢視美國的數據。

Over the last couple of years -- really 2013, 2014 --

在過去的幾年： 2013--2014年，

we prematurely retired four nuclear power plants.

我們提早除役了四座核電廠。

They were almost entirely replaced with fossil fuels,

幾乎完全以 化石燃料發電取代，

and so the consequence was that we wiped out

等同我們減少了

almost as much clean energy electricity that we get from solar.

與太陽能發電量相同的電能

And it's not unique to us.

這不是特例

People think of California as a clean energy and climate leader,

人們認為加州是潔淨能源和 對抗氣候變遷的領導者，

but when we looked at the data,

但是，當我們看了一下數據，

what we found is that, in fact,

我們發現的是：事實上，

California reduced emissions more slowly than the national average,

在2000和2015年之間，

between 2000 and 2015.

加州減少碳排放量速度低於全國平均水準。

What about Germany?

至於德國呢？

They're doing a lot of clean energy.

他們有很多潔淨能源。

But when you look at the data,

但是，當你看一下數據，

German emissions have actually been going up since 2009,

德國的排放量居然自2009年以來一直往上走，

and there's really not anybody who's going to tell you

有真的沒有任何人能告訴你

that they're going to meet their climate commitments in 2020.

他們要怎麼達成 2020年的減碳承諾。

The reason isn't hard to understand.

究其原因不難理解。

Solar and wind provide power about 10 to 20 percent of the time,

太陽能和風能可提供電能時間 約佔一天中10％到20％，

which means that when the sun's not shining,

這意味著當沒陽光照耀、風不吹拂，

the wind's not blowing,

但醫院、城市及工廠仍需要電力

you still need power for your hospitals,

電池在最近已經取得不小進步

your homes, your cities, your factories.

事實是，電池永遠不會像 電網一樣有效率。

And while batteries have made some really cool improvements lately,

每回你將電能以電池儲存後， 再次將它拿出來，

the truth is, they're just never going to be as efficient

就會損失約20%至40%電能。

as the electrical grid.

這就是為什麼在加州

Every time you put electricity into a battery and take it out,

我們試圖將太陽能與電網相連

you lose about 20 to 40 percent of the power.

我們現在約10％電力 取自太陽能發電。

That's why when, in California,

當太陽下山、人們下班回家，

we try to deal with all the solar we've brought online --

打開他們的空調、電視機，

we now get about 10 percent of electricity from solar --

及屋裡其他電器，

when the sun goes down, and people come home from work

我們需要大量的天然氣備載電力。

and turn on their air conditioners and their TV sets,

因此，我們一直將

and every other appliance in the house,

大量天然氣儲存於一座山中。

we need a lot of natural gas backup.

這工作已持續好一陣子了，

So what we've been doing

但去年年底， 它如雨後春筍般湧現洩漏。

is stuffing a lot of natural gas into the side of a mountain.

這是加州阿利索峽谷。

And that worked pretty well for a while,

這麼多的甲烷(天然氣)外洩，

but then late last year, it sprung a leak.

它是把相當於五千輛 汽車在道路行駛。

This is Aliso Canyon.

它基本上已超出 我們全年的碳排放量承諾。

So much methane gas was released,

那麼，看看印度的情形？

it was the equivalent of putting half a million cars on the road.

有時你要得到正確的數據， 還不得不親自跑一趟。

It basically blew through all of our climate commitments for the year.

因此，我們在幾個月前到訪印度。

Well, what about India?

我們會見了所有的高級官員 -- 管太陽能、核能及其他種種 …..

Sometimes you have to go places to really get the right data,

他們告訴我們：

so we traveled to India a few months ago.

“我們實際上還有比德國和加州

We met with all the top officials -- solar, nuclear, the rest --

更嚴重的問題。

and what they told us is,

我們沒有備載，沒有足量的天然氣。

"We're actually having more serious problems

而這只是開端，

than both Germany and California.

假設我們預計到2022年 達到100萬千瓦。

We don't have backup; we don't have all the natural gas.

但去年我們只建了5萬千瓦，

And that's just the start of it.

而在這之前一年，我們建了5萬千瓦。“

Say we want to get to 100 gigawatts by 2022.

所以，讓我們仔細審視核能。

But last year we did just five,

聯合國政府間氣候變遷專門委員會

and the year before that, we did five."

一直關注所有不同燃料的排碳量，

So, let's just take a closer look at nuclear.

核能真的很低 – 實際上甚至低於太陽能。

The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

而且明顯能提供了大量的電能 -

has looked at the carbon content of all these different fuels,

每天24小時，每週七天。

and nuclear comes out really low -- it's actually lower even than solar.

一座核電廠一年中有 92％的時間可以提供電力。

And nuclear obviously provides a lot of power --

有趣的是，當你看那些

24 hours a day, seven days a week.

已經發展各式潔淨能源的國家，

During a year, a single plant can provide power 92 percent of the time.

只有幾個在處理環境危機上

What's interesting is that when you look at countries

採取與治理環境一致的步伐。

that have deployed different kinds of clean energies,

因此，核能似乎是相當不錯的選擇，

there's only a few that have done so

但是核能有個大問題，

at a pace consistent with dealing with the climate crisis.

我敢肯定你們都知道的，

So nuclear seems like a pretty good option,

就是人們真的不喜歡它。

but there's this big problem with it,

大約一年半前有一項研究， 針對世界各地的人們，

which all of you, I'm sure, are aware of,

不只是在美國或歐洲，

which is that people really don't like it.

所進行的調查。

There was a study, a survey done of people around the world,

他們發現

not just in the United States or Europe,

核能是最不受歡迎的 能源形式。

about a year and a half ago.

甚至石油都比核能更受歡迎。

And what they found

雖然核能替代了煤，但實情是，

is that nuclear is actually one of the least popular forms of energy.

人並不像懼怕核能那樣害怕煤，

Even oil is more popular than nuclear.

這確實在存在我們的潛意識中。

And while nuclear kind of edges out coal, the thing is,

那麼，是什麼讓我們恐懼？

people don't really fear coal in the same way they fear nuclear,

有三件確定的事：

which really operates on our unconscious.

核電廠本身的安全 -

So what is it that we fear?

害怕爐心熔化，造成損壞。

There's really three things.

其次是核電廠的核廢料。

There's the safety of the plants themselves --

最後還有與核武器的關聯。

the fears that they're going to melt down and cause damage;

我認為，這是可以理解的，

there's the waste from them;

工程師們專注於這些疑慮， 並在技術上加以修正。

and there's the association with weapons.

這就是為什麼比爾·蓋茨 在中國開發先進的反應器。

And I think, understandably,

這就是為什麼40個不同的企業家 正在研究這個問題。

engineers look at those concerns and look for technological fixes.

而我自己，一直對此非常興奮。

That's why Bill Gates is in China developing advanced reactors.

我們完成一份報告： “如何使核能變便宜。”

That's why 40 different entrepreneurs are working on this problem.

特別是，釷反應器 使很多事變得可行。

And I, myself, have been very excited about it.

所以當氣候科學家詹姆斯·漢森

We did a report: "How to Make Nuclear Cheap."

詢問我是否願意到與他到中國去，

In particular, the thorium reactor shows a lot of promise.

並瞧瞧中國的先進核能計劃，

So when the climate scientist, James Hansen,

我立刻躍躍欲試。

asked if I wanted to go to China with him

我們與MIT和加州大學柏克萊分校 的工程師到那裏。

and look at the Chinese advanced nuclear program,

我腦中相信

I jumped at the chance.

中國將能夠將核能做起來。

We were there with MIT and UC Berkeley engineers.

就像他們已經完成的其他許多事情 --

And I had in my mind

開始在生產線上製出小型核反應器，

that the Chinese would be able to do with nuclear

把它們裝船像iPhone或 MacBook筆電般運到世界各地。

what they did with so many other things --

我在柏克萊的家中也能弄到一個。

start to crank out small nuclear reactors on assembly lines,

但我發現有些不同。

ship them up like iPhones or MacBooks and send them around the world.

這些介紹都非常令人興奮 且覺得前途似錦。

I would get one at home in Berkeley.

他們擁有多個反應器 且正在運行，

But what I found was somewhat different.

介紹釷反應器時， 我們一幫人都很興奮。

The presentations were all very exciting and very promising;

他們介紹完了，談到計畫時程時，

they have multiple reactors that they're working on.

他們說：

The time came for the thorium reactor, and a bunch of us were excited.

“我們不得不將釷熔鹽反應器

They went through the whole presentation, they got to the timeline,

上市的時間訂於

and they said,

2040年。"

"We're going to have a thorium molten salt reactor

我當時就像這樣--“啥？”

ready for sale to the world

（笑聲）

by 2040."

我看了看我的同事，然後就像這樣，

And I was like, "What?"

“對不起 - “

(Laughter)

你們可以稍微加速一點嗎？

I looked at my colleagues and I was like,

因為我們現在有一點氣候危機，

"Excuse me --

而同時你們的城市污染真的是嚴重。"

can you guys speed that up a little bit?

他們回應道，他們也想，

Because we're in a little bit of a climate crisis right now.

“我不知道你聽說過 我們的什麼釷計劃，

And your cities are really polluted, by the way."

但我們連三分之一的預算都沒有，

And they responded back, they were like,

你們能源部好像也不是很主動

"I'm not sure what you've heard about our thorium program,

公開你們測試的反應器數據。“

but we don't have a third of our budget,

我說：“嗯，我有一個想法。

and your department of energy hasn't been particularly forthcoming

你知道10年 你們在哪裡展示這反應器？

with all that data you guys have on testing reactors."

讓我們跳過這一部分，

And I said, "Well, I've got an idea.

直接商業化。

You know how you've got 10 years where you're demonstrating that reactor?

這將節省時間和金錢。“

Let's just skip that part,

工程師看著我，說：

and let's just go right to commercializing it.

“讓我問你一個問題：

That will save money and time."

你會買一輛從來沒有 展示過的汽車嗎？“

And the engineer just looked at me and said,

那麼，關於其他的反應器呢？

"Let me ask you a question:

也就說即將上線的反應器， 現在他們已經開始出售了。

Would you buy a car that had never been demonstrated before?"

這是一個高溫氣體反應器。

So what about the other reactors?

它不會熔毀。

There's a reactor that's coming online now, they're starting to sell it.

但它確實又大又笨重， 這是安全的一部分，

It's a high-temperature gas reactor.

沒有人認為會有

It can't melt down.

比我們更便宜的反應器。

But it's really big and bulky, that's part of the safety,

使用核廢料作為燃料 真的是很酷的想法，但事實是：

and nobody thinks it's going to ever get cheaper

我們實際上並不知道該怎麼做。

than the reactors that we have.

你要冒著實際上製造 更多的核廢料的風險，

The ones that use waste as fuel are really cool ideas, but the truth is,

大多數人認為如果你把

we don't actually know how to do that yet.

處理廢料的部份加上去，

There's some risk that you'll actually make more waste,

整個機器將更加而昂貴不少，

and most people think that if you're including

它只是增加另一個複雜的步驟。

that waste part of the process,

事實是，

it's just going to make the whole machine a lot more expensive,

有多少真正的問題是 我們要處理的。

it's just adding another complicated step.

我的意思是，我們去了印度， 並要求看核能計劃。

The truth is,

政府表示， 巴黎的氣候談判之前

there's real questions about how much of that we're going to do.

他們打算做些什麼， 例如蓋30座新的核電廠。

I mean, we went to India and asked about the nuclear program.

但是，當我們到了那裡 並採訪相關人士

The government said before the Paris climate talks

甚至看了看內部文件，

that they were going to do something like 30 new nuclear plants.

他們現在說大約要蓋5座。

But when we got there and interviewed people

而在世界上大多數國家， 尤其是有錢人的世界，

and even looked at the internal documents,

他們不要建立新的核反應器。

they're now saying they're going to do about five.

我們實際上是在談論

And in most of the world, especially the rich world,

關於在使用期限前將其除役。

they're not talking about building new reactors.

德國實際上施壓他的鄰居這樣做。

We're actually talking about taking reactors down

我提到美國 -

before their lifetimes are over.

在接下來的15年裡，我們可能 會關掉一半的反應器。

Germany's actually pressuring its neighbors to do that.

這將使碳排放減少40％。

I mentioned the United States --

前提是得全由潔淨能源取代才行。

we could lose half of our reactors over the next 15 years,

當然，在日本， 他們將所有的核電廠下線，

which would wipe out 40 percent of the emissions reductions

用煤、天然氣及石油取而代之，

we're supposed to get under the Clean Power Plan.

而他們只預期將約三分之一 到三分之二的反應器再上線。

Of course, in Japan, they took all their nuclear plants offline,

所以，當我們核算一下數字，

replaced them with coal, natural gas, oil burning,

給它們算了算 -

and they're only expected to bring online about a third to two-thirds.

接下來的15年裡，

So when we went through the numbers,

中國和印度將有多少核電廠上線，

and just added that up --

有多少是有被下線的風險 。