analysis of Westeros. I scoured the pages of the first 5 books to find clues about

the financial situation in the seven kingdoms. Here's what I found...

First of all: The Iron Throne really needs to get its finances in order. The crown has

been spending and accumulating debt. Unfortunately, none of this spending has been invested in

long-term growth. The throne spends on lavish parties and jousting competitions. And has

ongoing expenses due to the war of the five kings. In book one Ned Stark says the mad king left

the treasury flowing with gold. And Littlefinger has managed to increase revenue tenfold during

his time as Master of Coin… Yet somehow the crown is over 6 million golden dragons

in debt. It owes 3 million dragons to the Lannister house, 2 million to the Iron Bank

of Braavos, the most powerful bank in the known world, and another million to the church

of the seven. The crown’s sizeable income barely covers the interest on its debt. And

Cersei has already suspended payments to the bank and the church. It seems to me the Lannister's

are going to need a new motto... Based on the unsustainable debt dynamics of

the Iron Throne it seems the probability default is high… which means the Iron Bank is no

doubt getting restless. But if Tommen wants to stay on the throne

or rather if Cersei plans to keep him there he going to have to keep fighting for it,

which is going to be expensive. Since more debt isn't an option, the throne has increased taxes.

The crown has imposed a tax on the tens of thousands fleeing to King’s Landing. Tywin

even levied a tax on the brothels. The other option is printing money. Which

is difficult with a commodity-based currency. But there is some speculation, based on a

few pointed lines in books 2 and 3, that Littlefinger was printing more coins by diluting the amount

of gold in each. Though these statements could be attributed to Little Finger's incredible

business acumen. But there are two sides of every dragon

coin… Debt isn't so bad if the economy is growing… But there isn't any good news here.

Government spending can sometimes lead to growth... If the gold is spent on infrastructure,

capital investment and public goods. That was not the case. The iron throne went into

massive debt throwing parties and fighting a civil war.

The Westeros economy is based on agriculture. And has little by way of international trade.

The people of Westeros reap what they sow, which has been less and less lately. And ever

since "The Mountain" ravaged the riverlands - Farmers have fled, fields have burned, and

equipment has been destroyed. And the fertile lands of The Reach has been cut off from King’s

Landing. NOT TO MENTION WINTER IS COMING… And though

most of us are too young to remember the last winter, I think it's safe to say that it

will make farming EXTREMELY difficult. So all signs point to financial instability

and negative economic growth. We've already seen food prices increase

in King's Landing. With winter ahead and expectations of even less supply, food prices

will continue to rise. However, expect the price of services to fall,

unemployment is high. I suspect that the supply of prostitutes is on the rise. And discretionary

spending has evaporated for most of the kingdom. Which means that the price of some companionship

will go down. There's only one positive that I can see coming

out of this mess. The Lannisters will likely lose much of their wealth and power.

The Iron Bank of Braavos is known for getting its due. They aren’t going to simply write

off the debt of the Iron Throne. They will step in and support someone else to take over

the throne provided the usurper promises to honor the outstanding debt to the Bank. This

is doubly bad for the Lannisters. Not only would they lose control of the Iron Throne,

but the throne owes the Lannisters millions of golden dragons--a debt which is unlikely

to be honored if someone else takes the throne by force.

So at least something good will come out of the impending crisis of Westeros: House Lannister

will be hit harder than anyone which will make winter a little bit warmer for the rest

of us.