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  • TRACE DOMINGUEZ: Hey, everyone.

  • Thanks for tuning in to Seeker Plus.

  • I know this is also on Seeker.

  • This is a slightly different format

  • where we get really deep into a topic for a little while.

  • So stick with us.

  • I'm Trace.

  • This is going to be really cool.

  • We're talking about artificial intelligence today.

  • And we didn't want to present it as artificial intelligence is

  • scary or artificial intelligence is the best,

  • but come down in the middle and give you both perspectives

  • because there are people on both sides of pretty much every one

  • of these debates.

  • So let's kick into it.

  • Artificial intelligence is everywhere,

  • and it's growing both in scope and also in scale.

  • It's just getting to be in everything.

  • And people have strong opinions on this.

  • One article called "The Debate Itself--

  • Singulatarians Versus Skeptics," which

  • we thought was kind of cool.

  • And people do see artificial intelligence

  • as a possible threat--

  • people like Elon Musk, Stephen Hawking,

  • Bill Gates kind of, and at one point Steve Wozniak.

  • On the other side, people see artificial intelligence

  • as the future and inevitable-- people

  • like Larry Page of Google-- and said that in order for Google

  • to achieve its mission, that means achieving AI.

  • Mark Zuckerberg uses AI to run his home,

  • and Facebook is moving towards having AI assistants.

  • Even Uber has an AI division.

  • So it is like this old tech new tech and with Elon Musk

  • right in the middle.

  • But chances are you all probably know this stuff already

  • because you follow Science News likely

  • if you're watching this show.

  • But one way to think about this is positives and negatives.

  • Everyone has an opinion about AI, and both of those opinions

  • are usually valid.

  • So we thought we'd see how the debate is put together

  • rather than coming down on one side or the other.

  • So let's quickly define artificial intelligence.

  • It's not just robots and chat bots and assistants.

  • It's being used across all sorts of fields in industries,

  • and it's computers and it's machines

  • imitating human intelligence.

  • But it's not just that.

  • It's more than just learning.

  • It's more than just replicating our intelligence.

  • It's about learning new things, and it's also

  • about the machines learning on their own.

  • The big idea, the big concept here could be great,

  • but it also could be kind of scary.

  • So let's talk about different ways

  • that you could apply artificial intelligence.

  • A big one being talked about right

  • now is artificially intelligent automobiles, trucks,

  • and cars that drive themselves, which, if you think about it,

  • that is an intelligent task.

  • It requires decision making and learning and learning

  • from your experiences.

  • And a big thing would be safety.

  • 90 percent of car accidents now, car crashes,

  • are caused by humans, human error.

  • Smart cars, intelligent cars, they

  • would be able to take in the environment around them.

  • GPS could tell them what roads they're on and also

  • what buildings are nearby and other monuments and things,

  • of course.

  • They have cameras and scanners.

  • So they can see the trees and the way the road actually moves

  • versus what it's supposed to do.

  • And you can see things like other cars.

  • Which what if they were smart, too?

  • Then they could interact with each other.

  • And then you have this network that is moving everywhere.

  • What if you have smart traffic lights?

  • Eventually this whole system could

  • be one giant AI system where they're all

  • talking to each other.

  • And then we could virtually eliminate 90% of crashes,

  • right?

  • Assuming we're eliminating all of the human error ones.

  • Of course, there are moral issues here.

  • The car might be designed to cause the least

  • damage to the owner of the car.

  • It might not want the car to be destroyed in a crash.

  • And so that's a moral question.

  • Can the owner of the car, say, a taxi company

  • decide not to protect passengers or predestines

  • over protecting their property?

  • This is an ethical dilemma.

  • What about a guy who owns a car?

  • He would want to protect his family at all costs.

  • But what if in doing so it sacrificed

  • other people's property or destroyed

  • other intelligent cars?

  • It gets complicated because nothing

  • is black and white when you get it out into the real world.

  • And that's part of the problem with artificial intelligence

  • across the board right now--

  • is that the real world is messy.

  • Is it worth it to have a self-driving intelligent car

  • that might not think some humans are worth saving

  • over other humans or that some property isn't worth saving

  • over other property even if it can prevent more accidents,

  • even if it knows the fastest routes and could drive itself,

  • so you wouldn't need to worry about people under age

  • or people over age or people who were

  • too intoxicated or inebriated in any number of different ways?

  • At the end of the day, intelligent automobiles

  • mean that, on the good side, we don't have to go to the DMV.

  • We don't have to worry about drunk driving.

  • But on the bad side, we're taking our control away

  • from something that happens all the time all around us

  • especially in urban areas.

  • So if you're in a car and it's raining and you slide,

  • you go around a corner and maybe something bad happens.

  • The road's too wet.

  • The car did something wrong.

  • It's either going to destroy the life

  • of the person in the car or a pedestrian on the sidewalk.

  • That decision is made by a machine not by a human

  • and maybe by somebody who programmed

  • or owned that machine.

  • We as a society have to make a decision

  • to give up that control and hand it to an artificially

  • intelligent machine.

  • How do you feel about that?

  • It's a debate.

  • There's good and bad on both sides.

  • And this applies across the board.

  • Let's go to another example--

  • marketing.

  • Marketing is pervasive, especially

  • in the era of the internet.

  • Marketers want to know where you're going to be,

  • what you're going to buy, and what it takes

  • to get you to buy something.

  • You shop for shoes that one time,

  • and now there's an ad for shoes on every website you

  • visit and that shoe and a couple of other different shoes

  • in a variety of true colors.

  • And they're all really nice, and you kind of want all of them.

  • But you kind of want none of them

  • because they're just everywhere.

  • Or maybe you regularly visit a site on your computer

  • before you buy something.

  • Maybe you visit it 20 times.

  • Now right now all of that stuff happens and all of that data

  • is there, but no one's really looking

  • at all of that data except artificially

  • intelligent machines.

  • Predictive shopping and also recommendation engines

  • on Netflix and on Amazon--

  • those are basic artificial intelligences.

  • So imagine if they got way better.

  • When you shop for something, do you just go and buy it

  • or do you visit the same site once or twice, then

  • maybe look at some reviews, then maybe ask your friends about it

  • and then go back and buy it?

  • An artificial intelligence system

  • might be able to get you to buy that sooner because they

  • know your behavior.

  • So when you go there the first time,

  • what if an artificial intelligent system

  • just pulled in recommendations from the sites that you already

  • visit that it knows you visit because of the cookies--

  • little files-- that all of those sites

  • have stored on your computer?

  • What if it knew your social network

  • and it went to your friends who it knew

  • had bought from this web site and already

  • bought these types of items and said,

  • oh, here we know that all of your friends like this thing

  • and we know where you've shopped before.

  • And the artificially intelligent system

  • could anticipate what you want.

  • Is that scary or is that good?

  • Because sometimes I kind of like shoes,

  • but I don't know what I want.

  • And maybe the computer can tell me you do want this,

  • and I might love it.

  • But also it's kind of creepy to know that the computer knows

  • my shopping habits and knows what websites I've visited

  • and knows what my friends like and is anticipating

  • what I might like.

  • Good but also bad.

  • The Trump campaign tapped into a marketing AI

  • to help determine how it wanted to send out its messaging.

  • And this marketing AI claims to have 45,000 data points

  • on 230 million Americans.

  • They claim that they know what makes us angry, happy,

  • impassioned, or despondent.

  • That's a lot of power for somebody

  • to have and be able to then manipulate

  • all sorts of different people into doing

  • what they want because that's what marketing is about--

  • is I want to market something to you.

  • I have to know how to reach you in order

  • to do that and push your buttons and all sorts of other things.

  • The idea is to get you to make an emotional decision rather

  • than a rational one from time to time.

  • Again, good or bad?

  • What do you think?

  • How about in medicine?

  • Medicine is a field with huge amounts of data.

  • But most of that data is protected and stored

  • in very specific places, sometimes never even digitally.

  • It's just papers or it's just file names and not so much

  • all of the stuff in the file.

  • AI machines could potentially take

  • in huge amounts of this data, like medical records,

  • doctor's notes, treatment options, disease histories,

  • family histories, genetic information,

  • and find patterns that could help doctors diagnose

  • diseases in people that they didn't even know

  • would have them.

  • Let me give you an example.

  • If I can analyze, as an intelligent machine, all

  • of your medical history and also all of everyone else's

  • medical history, who has all of these genetic markers, what

  • if I can find a pattern and then use that to diagnose you

  • and many other people?

  • Would that offset the fact that I now

  • have your medical information and I'm using it?

  • Yeah, sure.

  • I'm using it to help other people.

  • Great.

  • But I also have your private medical data.

  • Maybe not great.

  • The AI system doesn't necessarily

  • care whether it has all of your data, but the more data it has,

  • the better it's going to be able to do.

  • It does involve us giving up some

  • of this control to an intelligent machine

  • in order to get a benefit back.

  • On top of that, is it good to take away

  • humans from healthcare?

  • Will we rely someday 100% on computers diagnosing us?

  • They don't really have emotions.

  • They don't have gut feelings.

  • They can't read real patients' experience in the same way

  • that a well-trained doctor can.

  • However, computers can examine data and find patterns

  • in our genetic codes and things.

  • Lists of symptoms really help with computers,

  • but doctors don't always get the whole list.

  • I've watched a lot of "House."

  • I know there's a lot of lying that goes on in the examination

  • room.

  • I have lied to my doctor.

  • I imagine you have, too.

  • How often do you drink a week?

  • Oh, a couple of times.

  • Is it a couple of times or is it more?

  • Mm?

  • However, how many times have you googled something

  • that you don't want to tell anybody about?

  • Probably lots of times.

  • So maybe, in this case, again, good and bad.

  • Real people have all of these gut feelings

  • and can help you understand what's going on,

  • but you'll tell machines something

  • that you may not tell people.

  • So an artificially intelligent doctor

  • might be able to help you in that way in a way

  • that a person can't and vice versa.

  • Really interesting discussion.

  • We don't have the answer.

  • Maybe you do.

  • Let us know.

  • So moving on.

  • What about jobs?

  • And specifically certain jobs.

  • An Oxford study that came out in 2013

  • looked at 700 different jobs and assessed their ability

  • to be automated and their probability that they would be.

  • The jobs at the top of the list, which is actually

  • the bottom of the list, were things

  • like legal advising, marketing, bank teller, tax prep, shipping

  • and cargo control, in fact, most everything

  • you can think of for retail and auditing and tax adjusting,

  • even sports--

  • things like umpires and refs.

  • They were the number 15 most automatable job.

  • Why do I need a referee if I have an intelligent system that

  • can do this job?

  • It's just assessing the rules and debating whether or not

  • somebody had broken them.

  • That is easy to do for a computer.

  • It's not as easy to do with a referee or an umpire.

  • Sports journalism, even, has already

  • been done in large part much of it by robots.

  • Humans are just slower at this stuff.

  • And calculating is what computers do.

  • So isn't this some place where artificial intelligence

  • is going to come in?

  • Now many of you are probably already thinking

  • about how computers and robots have taken some jobs.

  • And the first things that pop into people's heads are--

  • at least people like myself from Michigan--

  • is the auto industry.

  • It's already taken a lot of jobs there-- automation.

  • It's not people building cars.

  • It's people managing robots building cars.

  • This has also happened in cargo ships

  • and in shipping in general.

  • In fact, "99% Invisible" and Alex Madrigal

  • came out with this really great audio documentary

  • called "Containers."

  • It was featured on "99% Invisible."

  • It was really good.

  • So go check it out.

  • And it talks all about how docks used

  • to be this really exciting place filled with people and smells

  • and sights.

  • And now it's more automated.

  • And one person with a crane moves containers

  • from one place to another.

  • It's very different.

  • All of that is automation taking over.

  • Now imagine why do we need the person operating the crane

  • if we have an artificial intelligence that can do that

  • and it can do it faster and more precisely?

  • Interesting.

  • What about automation in a variety of other things

  • like when you buy coffee?

  • Do I really need to buy it from a person

  • if I have an artificially intelligent system that

  • can bring me that coffee?

  • Sidebar-- the vending machine, where

  • you get snacks or whatever.

  • That's technically an artificial intelligence system.

  • It knows how much money you put in.

  • It knows what you want.

  • And then you walk away.

  • The first vending machines showed up in 1070 in China.

  • They were coin operated pencil vending machines.

  • In the 1970s, there were machines that dispensed tobacco

  • at taverns.

  • And by the late 1800s, you could get paper, envelopes,

  • postcards, gum, and things on train platforms

  • and at post offices.

  • And that was somebody's livelihood before.

  • That was somebody who was selling you envelopes

  • and gum or tobacco or pencils.

  • So robots and automation have been taking jobs

  • for a long time-- end sidebar.

  • Anyway, back to this Oxford study

  • because it's super interesting.

  • Humans are slower at calculating,

  • like we were saying.

  • But if you take tax prep jobs, bank teller jobs, retail jobs

  • and you give them to intelligent machines,

  • we are again giving up control, giving up access

  • to something that used to be done by humans

  • and was also a point of contact of me with a stranger

  • or you with a friend.

  • We're giving that to a machine, which some people come down

  • on the good side of--

  • I don't want to have to interact with somebody to get coffee.

  • I just want coffee--

  • and some people come down on the bad side of--

  • I would rather have my person than my coffee.

  • It's part of my morning ritual.

  • It's part of how I go through my day.

  • And if you take that away from me,

  • then that's one less person that I get to interact with,

  • and that makes me happy.

  • Artificial intelligence can do so many different things,

  • and it will do so many different things in the future.

  • But for now, it's all a matter of debate.

  • On top of that, again, another sidebar.

  • If you take away retail and all of these low level entry level

  • jobs, what replaces them?

  • What happens then?

  • How does someone in high school or college

  • get into the workforce or pay for college?

  • How do they earn money if an artificial intelligence

  • is already doing that job?

  • How do you get started at work if all of the entry level jobs

  • are done by machines?

  • An interesting question.

  • There's no real answer to that at the moment.

  • What about an education?

  • Right now the education system is in peril.

  • We need more money for schools.

  • We need less money for schools.

  • It depends on who you ask, and it

  • depends on what outlook you have on the future of our education

  • system.

  • But an obvious downfall of artificial intelligence

  • moving into education is taking the roles

  • of teachers, where an obvious upside is

  • that an artificial intelligence will be able to do the best

  • job at teaching in terms of knowing what you need to learn

  • and knowing how to present that information to you,

  • so that you learn at the best.

  • When people say that they're--

  • I'm a visual learner, I'm a reading learner,

  • or I'm an audio learner--

  • an artificially intelligent machine

  • can do all of those things equally well,

  • whereas a teacher might be better

  • at some rather than others.

  • It's a debate.

  • And, again, we're relinquishing this control over something

  • that we have traditionally had control over in order

  • to potentially have an upside.

  • But that upside might also have a downside.

  • Even assisting the teacher would be really interesting

  • because the AI maybe do tutor stuff with individual students

  • on an individual basis very personalized for what they

  • need, while the teacher is there to give them social skills

  • and interaction and make sure that the classroom as a whole

  • is progressing together.

  • They can work together.

  • This debate does often feel black and white,

  • but perhaps it's less so because,

  • if everyone is learning from a computer

  • but they're getting their social skills

  • from other humans, what does that mean for how we think?

  • Are we going to have trouble thinking

  • when interacting with humans?

  • | posing more questions than I'm answering in this episode,

  • but I think the exciting thing is that artificial intelligence

  • holds so much promise in so many different areas of our culture

  • and our experience and our abilities

  • to do more in the future that, when people say,

  • I'm afraid of the robot takeover,

  • they're obviously only looking at this bad column

  • and not at this good column.

  • Because we could learn quicker and better and more

  • personalized.

  • We could have more personalized medicine.

  • We could have better automobiles and automobile safety.

  • But we'd also not control those cars.

  • We'd not control our healthcare data as easily.

  • We wouldn't have as much social interaction.

  • We bought coffee maybe.

  • There are things you have to give up.

  • But we've given up things before.

  • And we're OK now.

  • There are lots of other applications

  • that we don't have time to get into, like in the entertainment

  • industry, in the security industry,

  • in systems that make music or make movies or write stories.

  • AI can be good, but, like everything, maybe it's

  • AI in moderation.

  • If every aspect of our lives is being

  • driven by intelligent machines, does that

  • take away our ability to be intelligent ourselves?

  • I don't know.

  • Think about it.

  • A lot of what humans have been doing

  • over the last few millennia is just figuring out

  • how to live our lives on this planet

  • and how to make the best of the situation that we are all in.

  • We're in a giant aquarium floating in space,

  • and we're all trying to figure out the best way to live inside

  • of this bubble.

  • AI can help us with that potentially,

  • but it will change things.

  • So where do you come down on that?

  • If AI can do all these things that we used to have

  • to do, then what do we do?

  • All right, guys.

  • Thanks so much for watching this episode

  • about artificial intelligence.

  • Let us know what you think down in the comments.

  • Make sure that you watch last week's episode on InfraRed

  • right here.

  • And one more favor to ask.

  • Please go over to vote.webbyawards.com

  • because we got nominated for a Webby in the people's choice

  • category, and we need your vote.

  • It's for the Edge of Space video we

  • did where we sent a camera into the stratosphere.

  • It's so cool if you haven't watched it.

  • Go watch it.

TRACE DOMINGUEZ: Hey, everyone.

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