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  • Rui Chenggang: Good morning ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to CCTV's debate also

  • a discussion here at the Summer Davos.

  • The entire session will be televised on CCTV's business channel and together with

  • many other domestic and international channels of the entire CCTV group.

  • The topic of this discussion is the new frontiers of China's growth.

  • I'm sure immediately following the Premier's keynote speech will have a lot

  • of subject matters to address I made it very complicated on predicable global

  • growth prospects backdrop and here on panel we have some very outstanding

  • speakers and first of all allow me to introduce youג€”them one-by-one.

  • I will start with the gentleman next to me. Mr. Li Daokui one of the leading

  • economist here in China who is also a member of the monetary policy committee of

  • China's central bank. Ambassador Gary Locke who is probably the

  • most wildly known Ambassador from the United States ever in China currently as

  • a Chinese-American politician who was formerly Governor of Washington State

  • and also the new Secretary of Commerce.

  • Mr. Wang Jianlin of Wanda Group one of the leading real estate developers and senior

  • business leaders in China and also

  • probably the most wildly known and the richest person here in the city of Dalian

  • and finally, and certainly not the least

  • Mr. Kris Gopalakrishnan CEO of Infosys. I'm sure you know Infosys as well as you

  • know about Lenovo in China.

  • So the first topic that we are allowed to address here is was in the news the global

  • debt situation was happening in Europe is making a lot of people nervous including

  • those in China and unfortunately the debt problem is not unique to Europe only.

  • The United States and Japan virtually

  • most of the developed world has some sort of a debt problem.

  • Some worse than others what has happened in United States was making us nervous in

  • China as well including the Chinese stock markets so I would like to begin by asking

  • Ambassador Locke.

  • My colleagues told me that you flew coach

  • economy class from Beijing to Dalian was that a reminder that U.S still owes China money?

  • Gary Faye Locke: Well actually that is a U.S government policy whether we are here

  • in China or even throughout the United States.

  • All U.S government officials always fly coach on our personal travel if we want to

  • pay the extra money for business class or whatever that is our own personal decision

  • but we believe in setting a good example in being good stewards of American

  • taxpayer money so the requirement is

  • and virtually all cases unless you are traveling ore than 14 hours and have

  • a meeting immediately or within so many hours after landing you fly economy

  • and certainly from Beijing to Dalian is only an hour so economy is very, very comfortable.

  • Rui Chenggang: Your colleague secretary Gartner was on my show twice and he told me

  • every time when were together that

  • a strong dollar is in the best interest of the United States.

  • It served United States best interest,

  • but now it seems that a weak dollar is in the better interest of the United States isn't

  • that so? Gary Faye Locke: Well let me just say

  • that we and the United States are very concerned about the world economy, we are

  • also concerned about our own fiscal health, but I think what is really

  • important is that United States Congress and the President took very decisive

  • action just a few weeks ago in reaching an agreement on racing the debt ceiling.

  • Not only did it call for as part of that agreement reducing government expenditure

  • but also calling for reduction of expenditures in the future and that it

  • will reduce our deficit and our debt over the next 10 years and there is a committee

  • of members of Congress that are now negotiating and if they do not reach an

  • agreement they will nonetheless be automatic across the board cuts in

  • government spending.

  • So people should have confidence in the ability of the American government to deal

  • with a financial problems that we have had to get our fiscal health in order, but let

  • me also say that it is in the self interest of all other economies in the

  • world that have the United States economy as strong and as vibrant and as healthy as

  • quickly as possible. Because certainly a strong U.S economy

  • means that more people have jobs,

  • have disposable income, making purchases and we know that many of those purchases involve

  • items from all around the world.

  • So the more Americans are working and have income the more they will be buying

  • things not just made in America but made in China, made in Europe, made in India

  • and that is good for the workers of all those other countries.

  • Rui Chenggang: I remember vividly when Ambassador Locke was the governor of the

  • state of Washington.

  • He was promoting Washington Apples to Chinese consumers.

  • You literally cut them open in the supermarket in China promoting American

  • products for China but probably the biggest American export to China is the

  • U.S dollars it also has Washington on it

  • and Mr. Li Daokui I will have ask you most economist in China tend to believe that

  • U.S dollars will be devalued and the are a lot of legitimate concerns about the

  • purchasing capacity of China's immense huge foreign reserves.

  • How did it happen?

  • Li Daokui: Well, I think for scholars and government officials alike in China they

  • are quite right in being concerned about the debt dynamics and the future trends of

  • U.S dollars of the United States because it appears to us that in so far as

  • agreement between the Congress and the why cost is concerned.

  • It is not as decisive as you have described. It is just to buy more time to

  • procrastinate the solution to sometime in the future and I think the U.S economy

  • like the Chinese economy is also binary economy. It has a very competitive effect like

  • Boeing from the Washington States

  • and apple not the Apple PC as well as the wood industry, the timber industry of our

  • Washington State. However, on the other hand they are so

  • many are Latin American immigrants in the United States who cannot even speak

  • English and they cannot catch up with the pace of globalization so for the U.S

  • challenges today I think the far more grimmer than those confronting President

  • Ronald Reagan and Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher in early 1980's and your

  • challenge is around fundamental shift of the economy so as for the low

  • and straighter of a labor force to be able to catch up for world globalization you need

  • to reduce welfare budgets a lot. Well, it is not time to find the solution

  • for the United States but please describe the situation in China talking about our

  • huge foreign exchange reserves and I think it is our option to build so many foreign

  • exchange reserves. United States has never forced us to buy

  • the treasury bonds of the Unite States and to our trade, our commodities, our exports

  • and many things from China is denominated in USD.

  • If USD is to devalue rapidly china will be under huge impact.

  • Could you talk about the origin of this dependency and in this era with this

  • future of U.S economy in the horizon,

  • should we step up or accelerate the internationalization of the RMB and shall

  • we guard more against the risks of the U.S economy. I don't think we should blame anyone for

  • the dependency. It is result of the past two decades of

  • globalization of the global economy dynamics and in the process of economic

  • globalization some countries have some sectors weakening while the same sectors

  • in other countries are becoming more

  • competitive so that during a certain period of time in some countries there are

  • higher savings rates, in others there are lower savings rates and money flows from

  • China to the United States whose interest rates with higher at that time so we

  • shouldn't blame anyone for it but as Premier Wen Jiabao put it we have so wise

  • Ambassador from the United States of China we should exercise our wisdom in finding a solution.

  • We should not only care about our treasury bonds positions but also thinking more

  • about diversifying our investments so only with the diversification of our

  • investments away from the treasury bonds to the physical economy of the United

  • States including the express ways the highways of the United States it would be

  • better, but it calls for reform in the U.S as well such as your highway, railway

  • and coastal assistance. If those reforms have taken place there

  • will be plenty of money from China from under emerging markets from Middle East

  • over $10 trillion U.S are ready to be invested into the United States so we are

  • waiting for those reforms. Without those reforms the only we can buy

  • is your charity bonds. It will hurt both -- [Chinese] if the

  • Dalian -- host so many U.S dollars

  • and given the debt problems and the Euro debt crisis in headline how would you manage

  • your USD denominated assets.

  • Well I am proceeding from a microscopic point of view.

  • If you have a many much foreign currency

  • given the de facto devaluation of both the USD and Euro I will stop buying charity bonds.

  • I will start buying natural resources or other physical investments and I think for

  • the jobs in the United States and before Chinese FDI into the United States it

  • is quite limited and I think the United States is due restricting high tech

  • exports to China.

  • Put it simply for a container loads of high tech exports to be exported to China

  • it will bring a whole container vessel of goods back to the United States and I

  • think it will be something very good

  • and China is the largest developing economy while the U.S is the largest developed economy.

  • We have a very strong complimentarity between our respective economies so we are

  • not conflicting with each other but most importantly both offers should open up

  • fields for investments, sectors for investment for the retail and service

  • and manufacturing and IT sectors in China the leading companies in China are American companies.

  • But for Chinese investments in the United States we are just opening a few Chinese

  • restaurants but because the sectors for Chinese investments are not opened up yet

  • while you 10 of hundreds of billions of U.S Dollars from China are awaiting for

  • the opening up of those sectors to be invested in.

  • Gary Faye Locke: It is an area in which I and the embassy and the U.S government

  • wants to focus on both of the points raised by our two speakers with respect to

  • Mr. Wang.

  • We have had a good conversation last night at dinner.

  • There is a lot of misperception about the investment opportunities in the United

  • States. There are almost no fields, almost no

  • sectors except for very, very few that are restricted in terms of foreign direct

  • investments so we have companies from Russia, from Germany, from Korea,

  • from Japan from Brazil from India that actually own substantial holdings and have

  • substantial holdings in the United States. Whereas in China of course many of the

  • national champions in the various industries whether it is in steel or

  • whether it is in a natural resources are prohibited from any type of foreign

  • investment and if there is foreign investment whether from Europe or the

  • United States it is limited to no more

  • than 49%, but on infrastructure we very much welcome foreign direct investment

  • and we are looking at public private partnership the federal government is not

  • in the business with paying for all of these infrastructure projects at the state

  • and the local level those local governments are looking for a private

  • sector investment and so for instance in California and Las Vegas there is a big

  • interest in public-private partnership on high speed rail and many of those entities

  • are actively encouraging participation from China so we welcome that foreign

  • direct investment.

  • So what we at the embassy under my 10 years as Ambassador working with the

  • commerce department and others back in the United States we will be holding a lot of

  • seminars and reaching out to some of the prominent Chinese companies informing them

  • of the incredible and very large investment opportunities in the United

  • States and so that is our job we have got to break down some of they myths and some

  • of the misperceptions because we do welcome a foreign direct investment that

  • will help make the Chinese companies more prosperous while creating jobs in the

  • United States if those training companies establish operations,

  • facilities, manufacturing clients in United States the same way that the Korean and Japanese

  • and even German automobiles of companies have created operations in United States the

  • same way that German companies have created steel mills and steel processing

  • facilities in the United States.

  • Rui Chenggang: Thank you Ambassador Locke.

  • Kris, I'm sure India is watching what is happening in Europe with which concerns as well.

  • What are some of the actions the Indian government and business community are

  • considering taking to have the risks?

  • Kris Gopalakrishnan: So clearly in an interconnected economy that we are today

  • and all of us will slow down as the global economy slows down and that is the reason

  • why we have to look at coordinated acts and what happened in 2008 across

  • governments, across countries I think is an important example or a lesson for all

  • of us to say that in today's world we have to be coordinated acts.

  • Indeed economy is also slowing down and all and we were expecting a growth rate of

  • about 8 to 9% now we are looking at probably close at the 7% and for

  • a developing economy like India this 2% is reduction has a significant impact because

  • you know what we expected happened maybe in 5 years to 10 years now we will take 15

  • to 20 years because of the slow down. So it has an impact on India.

  • There is awareness now there is an urgency from the government to look at restarting

  • the reforms, look at working with other government.

  • The business side also there is clearly an awareness that we need to make

  • investments in other parts of the world so as in -- for example we are making

  • investments in China. We are making investments in Europe; we

  • are making investments in U.S so we are actually spreading out wings to different markets.

  • I also want to add one more thing as we look at you know the development going

  • forward when you look at about 4 billion people who are still in developing

  • economies whereas 2 billion people are in the developed economies what is the right

  • model for a us to develop you know considering both the economy as well as

  • environment and what should we be doing? And this is where I think experiments

  • and innovations with China with India and of course the largest economy today in the

  • world which is the U.S, which is $14 trillion economy.

  • I think we will have work through that again for not just the economy but in the

  • area of climate change environment etcetera. We have to go together to figure out what

  • is the right model for development for the remaining 4 billion people who are still developing.

  • Rui Chenggang: There has been a lot of talks in China lately that among the

  • policy makers and economist like you that China needs toג€” "couldn't"

  • save the U.S economy, China needs to save the European economy, China needs to buy

  • more of the debt from certain troubled European countries as if by saving these

  • countries these economies we are saving China itself.

  • Is there some truth in that as well? Li Daokui: Well I don't think China can

  • save anybody's trouble; by the way I switch to English because I

  • want a better understanding a change with our esteem Ambassador.

  • Okay, I don't think any country can be saved by China in today's world our

  • country can only save itself by its own fundamental policy reforms however I have

  • to stress that these countries including the U.S should appreciate one very,

  • very important effect that is a significant proportion of your sovereign debt is being

  • held by sovereign investors like Chinese Currency Exchange Authority and we are,

  • the Chinese authority, we are the most patient perhaps probably the most

  • cooperative investors in the world.

  • Imagine if the 3.2 trillion U.S Dollar currency reserves is being controlled by

  • Mr. George -- what would happen? I'm sure we have been already under

  • selling the U.S economy, U.S treasury bonds.

  • Your financial market in much bigger chaos than it is so China is already

  • showing a very, very positive attitude

  • towards all these countries in trouble,

  • however our emphasis fundamental reforms should be implemented and in the process

  • all parties would cooperate to negotiate without further and deeper understanding

  • of each other's interests from a Chinese point of view the last thing we want

  • is protectionist policy from the U.S and Europe.

  • That in the tire issue, the tire, the passenger car tire issue which is a --

  • example these protectionist policy didn't help China, it didn't help the U.S at all

  • because your total volume of import from all over the world actually increased

  • after the special policy rather than increase. So I think China is ready to help

  • meanwhile we also need better understanding from the U.S of Europe of

  • Chinese needs.

  • Rui Chenggang: Ambassador Locke, we can take that questions a bit further, much of

  • what Mr. Li was arguing is that the U.S politics always trump economics and now it

  • is even more so than previously,

  • the political paralysis in Washington is making invested around the world nervous

  • about the governments ability to make ends meet.

  • And this morning I checked President Obama's disapproval ratings just went up

  • again so what gives you confidence that the politicians in Washington will do the

  • right thing. Gary Faye Locke: Well first of all let me

  • say with respect to the U.S Treasuries China only holds about 7 or 8% of those

  • treasuries and that almost 70% of those treasury T-bills are actually owned by

  • Americans and so it is in the economic self interest of Americans to make sure

  • that our economy is strong and other countries that hold those T-bills.

  • Again China only holds less than about the 7 or 8% of those T-bills.

  • I have confidence that the American political system will work.

  • It is sometimes a little bit messy,

  • but the reality is that we did reach an agreement. We did raise the debt ceiling and in

  • doing so there was an agreement to lower our deficit and there are immediate cuts

  • across the board that are being instituted by the U.S government and further cuts to

  • insure our fiscal stability in our fiscal health but even additional $1.5 or $1.4

  • billion in cuts.

  • And if the members of Congress cannot reach an agreement those cuts of $1.4,

  • $1.5 trillion will take effect automatically so it is actually in the

  • self interest of the political leaders to make sure that these cuts are strategic

  • and are as wise as possible as opposed to across the board cuts, but again it shows

  • the commitment or the willingness of the president and the Congress to make these

  • tough decisions.

  • Now let me just also say that we know that we need to move away from a debt

  • ridden society that there has to be more savings among American people and that

  • is why we also have to have a more less borrowing within the Federal Government as

  • an entity and that is why the president has really focused on innovation that

  • is part of our strategy that we have got to get away from these asset bubbles and so

  • much attention to financial services and that the wealth of the country is not by

  • buying and selling and trading but on making things on innovating and on

  • infrastructure as professor Li indicated.

  • And so states all across America are ramping up, gearing up, increasing their

  • investments on infrastructure because we know that we have to fix our roads and our

  • bridges sooner or later the longer we wait the more expensive it is and if you do it

  • now not only have you saved money but you put people to work and that creates jobs.

  • And all those people who design the roads, the construction workers themselves

  • they shop in malls eat in restaurants, by cars, remodel their homes so they support

  • many other workers throughout the economy.

  • The president is also successfully included in the budget and the Congress

  • has passed more funding for R&D,

  • more research at Federally government sponsored research as well as proposed tax credits

  • for businesses to implement and engage in more research and development, but that

  • is going to be the strength of our economy innovation and so we are trying to get

  • back to what Americans always done best.

  • Rui Chenggang: Now we would like to take some questions from the floor on the theme

  • how should China effectively keep its immense savings intact a minute a global

  • debt crisis. Questions or comments are invited.

  • Please identify yourself and try to keep it short.

  • Now the floor is open to questions.

  • The issue in front of us is how can China keep its highest savings initially global

  • debt crisis.

  • This is a question about the Chinese Foreign Currency Management and visions

  • about China's overseas imbursement. Now the floor is open for questions.

  • Please keep it brief. Unidentified Male: I think there is one

  • solution China's brands in particular quality brands to work together and move

  • out to the rest of the world for instance the U.S.

  • If we can expand Chinese brands in the U.S

  • that will help facilitate China's economy and create more jobs and tax revenue for

  • the U.S.

  • This can also use China's currencies and translate from made in China to created in

  • China just last week we found a club supported by Britain and Belgium so my

  • question is to Gary, does the U.S welcome quality brands in China to converge into

  • the U.S to create their own brands we think that is a win-win solution what is your view?

  • In particular, when Chinese companies are trying to go global they face challenges

  • of visa applications actually hindering many Chinese companies from accessing the

  • U.S market.

  • We would have to go to the U.S to the distributors.

  • The distributors were not generated brand -- so could you give us a detailed answer,

  • a clear answer as to what is the attitude of the U.S for quality brands into the U.S

  • so we have heard that is what you are interested in and don't have any problems

  • for visa, we don't have any problems for our individual visas but we are not the one that

  • is going to setting up branch offices in the U.S we will just send our people but our

  • people are finding difficulties in how the

  • business approved in particular work visa so we do for a clear answer from the Ambassador.

  • Gary Faye Locke: I would like to answer both of those questions.

  • We very much welcome Chinese brands

  • and we already have numerous Chinese brands better gaining in popularity and becoming

  • more well known among the American people, Lenovo, your tablet PC as well as Haier

  • appliance maker.

  • Look at just the great popularity of

  • Chinese products in American daily life already a lot of the refrigerators that

  • Americans use under American brands are actually made in China along with

  • microwave ovens and so many electronic goods and so I think that as the

  • industries develop in China you are going to see them perhaps using their own names

  • instead of using other names. Look at the Korean names on television

  • sets and things like that how popular they are in the United States.

  • I think the key sometimes to success market strategy is coming up with the

  • right name that Americans can will support or resignate with you can use, come up

  • with a bad name whether it is a European automobile and will never be popular so I

  • think Chinese companies have to spend a little bit of time and energy on marketing

  • strategy and coming up with the right name of a product with respect to VISA

  • applications we have long recognized that we in the United States government in our

  • embassies not just in China but in other countries around the world are too slow in

  • processing Visas in making it too difficult for both tourist students

  • and the business travelers to come to United States because that is a major

  • undertaking, a major area of focus for me as Ambassador here in China, but also for

  • President Obama and the State Department so we are aware that our Visa policies are

  • discouraging both business travel as well tourist to come to the United States

  • and we intend to fix that. Thank you.

  • Rui Chenggang: Good to know and the gentleman in the second row and the

  • gentleman in the second row first.

  • [Chinese]

  • Gervase Warner: Hello, good morning. My name is Gervase Warner.

  • I'm from Trinidad and Tobago I'm the President and CEO of Neal & Massy Group of

  • Companies. I think you for allowing us to be here

  • this morning.

  • My question actually is two-fold maybe one part for Mr. Li and one part for Mr.

  • Gopalakrishnan.

  • We in the Caribbean have seen a number of investments by Chinese companies or the

  • Chinese government in terms of helping with infrastructure projects or even in

  • entering into some of our stream expiration industries but a number of

  • occasions these investments come largely direct in terms of funds or Chinese

  • workers or Chinese companies coming in and very little done in terms of developing

  • local content, transferring technology or skill sets, which I know are very

  • important policies when multinationals come to China.

  • And so my question to you Mr. Li is where is China going, where are Chinese

  • companies going these are the when they go out expatriating in terms of recognizing

  • their role in helping smaller development countries develop and grow as China and in

  • India Mr. Gopalakrishnan there are a number of Indian companies that have been

  • quite successful in like many outsourcing work like your own and I think again their

  • opportunities in other developing countries or leading giants like

  • yourselves from India to similarly come into developing countries and do create

  • similar enterprises and local content and development of education etcetera as you

  • have done in India and I would love if both of you gentleman could speak a little

  • bit more about Chinese and Indian leadership in sort of replicating the kind

  • of growth and development with both of your companies and countries have come to enjoy?

  • Thank you.

  • Li Daokui: Well I think the keyword is spillover, spillover in English right that

  • is if you look at Chinese early experience of attracting foreign direct investment in

  • early days China did not have all those technologies coming.

  • China didn't even have all the so called benefits come to China.

  • However China kept on opening doors eventually the spillover effect took over

  • and that is with more and more pour investors into China more Chinese workers

  • that are hired, more technicians being trained and the more local enterprises

  • being established so that process I believe is happening in your country

  • and other areas that is with gradual and continued pulling of Chinese investments,

  • the local economy well benefits and eventually will benefit, let's be patient.

  • Thank you.

  • Kris Gopalakrishnan: So you know replicating the IT services model, this

  • is something which the IT services industry in India has been doing for many years for

  • example you know we have now set up operations in Philippines.

  • In China we have very large operations in Eastern Europe, in Mexico, in Brazil.

  • We are actually transferring our knowledge through the engineering colleges around

  • the world by collaborating with them on curriculum development training the

  • teachers and we are doing this with support from the governments around the

  • world actually. In fact, you know multiple governments

  • have spent batches of hundred of students to actively come to India.

  • They are not our employees but they just come, get trained and all we request

  • is from the governments and they will come to India an then they will get trained

  • and then they will go back so the Indian IT industry has been doing there is a sector

  • within IT industry which is education and training and that sector has been

  • establishing training operation actually around the world so Indian IT services

  • industry for its need of creating talent around the world is creating operations

  • around the world is also sharing expertise in training etcetera to other countries.

  • Rui Chenggang: Last question from theג€” Unidentified Male: I'm from the China

  • Entrepreneurs Magazine the Premier Wen Jiabao in his kind of speech has made

  • a proposal to President Obama of United States to rebalance the Chinese and U.S

  • economic interactions and to solve the debt issue.

  • We should take debt to equity approach and I think the debt to equity solution

  • has been quite successful in China's SOE reform and restructuring.

  • So my question is for Ambassador Locke,

  • what do you think of the debt to equity proposal made by Premier Wen Jiabao?

  • The second question is for, Dr. Li, if this is to happen, will it bring about

  • some problems that all the equity will be taken by state on companies in China

  • and Mr. Wang if private companies had a chance would you participate in it or not?

  • Gary Faye Locke: Well let me just me say that we would for instance welcome Mr.

  • Wang's investing in United States

  • and moving away from ownership of T-bills to actually investment of assets in the

  • United States and helping create jobs in the United States.

  • Mr. Wang has a very successful history of entrepreneur as an entrepreneur

  • and developing commercial real estate and many other facilities, we welcome that in

  • America and again United States is one of the most open economies in the world for

  • foreign direct investment.

  • We have if you look at the restrictions of American investment or European investment

  • in China there is a huge dichotomy and a huge contrast so we very much welcome that

  • and another thing that Premier Wen Jiabao was talking about was export controls.

  • We are in the process of reforming our entire U.S export control system to take

  • things out of the categories that are almost prohibited now from exports to or

  • making it very difficult to export to China and other countries.

  • It is actually moving to the department that I used to head up the commerce

  • department and that will enable many of these items as long as they are not being

  • used for military purposes to be exported

  • and many things won't even require a license at all so we understand the

  • changes that have to take place.

  • And that we understand that China has enormous needs and that the Chinese people

  • also highly valued and have a great demand for made in U.S.A goods and services

  • and we want to facilitate that trade as a way of addressing our trade deficits and the

  • imbalance of trade, but again we believe that the more foreign direct investment

  • into the United States will be helpful it is welcome and second of all we also want

  • to sell more items that are currently restricted to China to help address that situation.

  • Li Daokui: Well I think for the debt equity proposal we should understand it in

  • a broader way not just takes place at the narrow corporate sense.

  • The United States government does not hold assets otherwise it would not have

  • needed to raise debt ceilings.

  • The only assets are the White House or the Pentagon.

  • You are never going to sell Pentagon or the White House to the Chinese government

  • so for the incremental part of the Foreign Exchange Reserve Holding it should be

  • invested into the physical sector of the U.S economy such as the private sector of

  • the U.S economy. The U.S economy is the binary one.

  • There are many excellent performers like Boeing and Intel and Apple which are

  • closely related in China maybe we should make equity investments in these types of

  • companies in a more proactive way. And I think when the global outlook or the

  • confidence in the Treasury Bond of United States is stabilized we can liquidate some

  • of our holdings after stabilization is achieved. Now the liquidated cash can be turned

  • into kind of private sector investments into apple, into Boeing buy more shares

  • from those companies for those companies to expand production.

  • I don't think SOE from China will play a main part in this process and I think

  • private companies will take lying share off of such activities.

  • Rui Chenggang: Yes, Mr. Wang has conveyed it quite well.

  • His colleagues and he himself would like to buy more assets overseas.

  • Wang Jianlin: If for the debt to equity

  • kind of a proposal I fully agree with Dr. Li's understanding the U.S economy is

  • a private economy, not a state owned economy

  • so the debt to equity proposal is a very good one but it is not so practicable

  • and for the equity that is an offer maybe you don't want it but for the equity you want

  • to have. It is not available for sale.

  • For example, if you want to take equity positions in Apple, is it possible or not,

  • no and also I talked to the top 7 or 8 hotel groups in the United States.

  • They had refused any equity taking from my group so I think it is a corporateג€”

  • inter-corporate interactions with compromise this and if anything is deemed

  • fit though that equity operation will occur but it depends on the market.

  • Rui Chenggang: Now lets move on to the next topic which is closely related to Mr.

  • Wang's sector given the increase in every expectations what about the future growth

  • prospects of the property sector in China.

  • Since 1998 of the housing reforming China a large part of the Chinese growth has

  • come from real estate, real estate and related factors and investment consumption

  • and export are closely related with land, with the properties as well.

  • If we take a look at the physical revenue of some eastern provinces the land so

  • proceeds used to account for 40% of our government fiscal revenue but that era

  • is going forever is no longer the case to rely on the landfill proceeds.

  • With that error gone what impact will it have in an equity way on Chinese growth

  • prospects in the future?

  • Wang Jianlin: I don't think the land dominated fiscal structure is gone.

  • Why do I say so? For the local government fiscal revenue

  • the, I still highly dependent on landfill proceeds with the part dependence from

  • 1998 to the early 21st Century there was nationwide to massive transfer of land

  • rights because the budgetary fiscal revenue cannot support the rapid growth

  • that China has enjoyed for the many years so the landfill proceeds have played

  • a pivotal role in China's growth and I just returned from Russia yesterday and I paid

  • a visit to the U.S in May.

  • I witnessed the aging of much of the infrastructure because everything depends

  • on fiscal investments like roads and bridges that Russia and the U.S alike.

  • So they do not have a toll roads they do not have land transfer proceeds so for the

  • land dominated fiscal structure it has its negative side but however over the past

  • two decades relying on such proceeds we have secured hiper growth of China so for every

  • coin it has to sides.

  • So for the minus side many local economies do not feature a strong IT

  • and high tech component and the bulk of the economy focuses on the land on the

  • property sector that is a minus side and I think as I have said there are two sides

  • of the coin. There is problematic side as well, but it

  • is not an overnight effort that we can remove all the dependency on land sale

  • transfers because these problems have accumulated for the past 2 decades it

  • takes time to be faced out maybe 15 or 20 years.

  • Rui Chenggang: But is there so much land remaining to be available?

  • Wang Jianlin: The best parts of the land have already been transferred but I think

  • it is a miscomprehension,

  • why? We do not have to take arable land for commercial development for example in

  • Dalian by filling some of the sea we can reclaim land from the sea and we can see

  • a more intensive part kind of patent of land usage by increasing the plot ratio of the

  • property developments.

  • Well we should face out the over reliance on land in our local fiscal revenue but at

  • present everybody is blaming the property sector. The property sector is becoming a culprit

  • in the eyes of everybody. However the property sector

  • is contributing 2 to 3% of China's growth every year, China's growth rate.

  • So no other sector can take its place so at all levels of the government central

  • and local we should find replacement sector to replace the contribution of the

  • property sector as soon as possible but it takes time.

  • If there is hand landing there is a prohibition on all land sales then the

  • government will not be able to pay salaries

  • Rui Chenggang: And what about the property austerity measures.

  • Is it nearing an end? Wang Jianlin: No, it is going to for the

  • long haul for the social restriction policies and other austerity measures they

  • are here to stay and the governments are using time to buy a space with 3 to 5

  • yearsג€”cost housing will account for roughly 50% of all the housing supply

  • and at that time they will be exits of the austerities. Li Daokui: I fully agree.

  • For the property sector development it is an epitome of the growth mode of China.

  • China used to rely on the land based fiscal revenue.

  • It came in to us very soon just by you know selling a piece of land.

  • It was quick and effective however it

  • resulted in a lot of credit-debit kind of problems between different governments or

  • different terms of government and at present the other approaches that for the

  • government to haul some land to pursue industry, service or low cost housing

  • developments and then there will be a future stream of tax revenue that is very

  • important transition but also that is a painful process.

  • For example, last year we grew by 10.4% and we need to slow down to 9.5% this year.

  • This 1% slow down is going to be painful but we have to smooth this difficulty.

  • We have to surmount this obstacle otherwise the situation in China will be

  • even more dire than the United States pre-2007, 2008 for the property sector in

  • China the poor people cannot buy any housing so it will aggravate our social

  • confrontation for the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States.

  • It has this positive side for our housing crisis it has no positive side and I think

  • the determination has been made in the next 2 to 3 years there will be further

  • like a soft landing or slow down of the property sector.

  • We should fully embrace for the Chinese economy to grow on a more sustainable

  • and healthy footing and I think 2% price drop every year is the price we must pay,

  • but it should take place over a long period of time it should not be rushed.

  • Rui Chenggang: And also for European and American economies it is very slow going

  • because those governments do not have any land to sell so then given that background

  • my question for Ambassador Locke of real estate telling us about how China should

  • manage its own real estate market?

  • Gary Faye Locke: Well I don't think that we in United States have been really

  • making any comments about the real estate market you know we are trying to get our

  • own real estate markets back in shape with housing prices and real estate

  • construction are very, very depressed right now, but obviously as professor lee

  • indicated there have to be some structure changes in the Chinese economy there have

  • to be structural changes in the U.S economy.

  • None of these things are going to be able to take place overnight.

  • We know that for instance and the Chinese leaders have indicated and that China

  • needs to move away from being so dependent on exports and focusing more on domestic

  • consumption and meeting the needs of the Chinese people.

  • China has an enormous social safety network problem as more and more Chinese

  • citizens are elderly, how do we support, how does China as a society take care of

  • the social medical needs of that aging population. We face the same problems of United States

  • and we are trying to make some changes with respect to our social safety network.

  • Several years ago President Clinton embarked on very significant welfare

  • reform in the United States an we made those tough decisions and it has actually

  • worked out very, very well by in large, but we still have a long way as to go in

  • terms of making sure that is social security and Medicare and Medicaid are

  • sound, but I think we are up to that challenge. We in United States as an economy have to

  • focus more on exports.

  • We need to focus again on innovation as President Obama has indicated.

  • We need to move away from being so consumed on debt whether personal

  • household debt or debt by the government and we are making those changes.

  • Thank you. Rui Chenggang: Kris?

  • Kris Gopalakrishnan: See as an economy develops, as more people move to middle

  • income group one of the first things there to look at is you know a house, buying

  • a flat etcetera and so the demand increases

  • and the supplies of course limited always because you can create of course you can

  • go into sea and reclaim land but primary land is limited and price will actually go up.

  • Now it has to be manage properly because you will create a level which everybody

  • knows now today and we will create a bubble and that is what we need to protect

  • to yourself because you know this is happening even in India actually and India

  • also land prices of become exorbitant and affordable to a segment of population

  • and that we had social tensions and unhappiness.

  • When you also look you know the mortgage

  • phenomenon etecetera that way you have to control this and manage this trouble

  • otherwise you know when the demand slows down when there is a downturn in the

  • economy and downturns can happen and all we have seen volatilities there it will

  • create a bubble and that is something we have to all be very careful about

  • and manage properly and you know the simple solution is not there and if the simple

  • solution was there that means -- so you know that is one of the things we have to

  • figure out how this can be solved.

  • Rui Chenggang: So my question is to Mr. Wang speaking of you most of the media in

  • China remind of commercial economy because a commercial real estate market because

  • you are always the leader in the commercial sector of the property market.

  • Our next topic is about innovation.

  • Some people are discussing about the shopping habits of the young people the

  • first in 1980 generation most of them are doing online shopping so once you have

  • your IPO you will become the biggest to private company in China by market customization.

  • However the concept of commercial property perhaps is not an attractive idea

  • to the young people. Young people tend to buy things online

  • because the shopping malls take a look and they go to --.com.

  • -- is talking about one in RMB with those revenue next year so I was wondering where

  • your shopping malls can reach the large sales revenue as well?

  • Wang Jianlin: That is perhaps another misconception then -- to the U.S online

  • shopping a few years ago some people were making judgments about the decline of the

  • retail industry in the U.S but the retail industry in the U.S did not die.

  • The online shopping was increasing but the overall return - on the increase as well.

  • The percentage of the online industry was not increasing as much even if online

  • industry, online shopping has been increasing by around 10% every year but

  • the retail industry has also an increasing

  • by 15% to every year so I'm not thinking that is the non-conventional shopping will

  • replace the convention of shopping.

  • Second -- advocates experience base to shopping within - we sit up our goal to

  • reduce our retail percentage to below 50%

  • in other words the shopping concept is much winder than buying things if you are

  • going to shopping mall and then you can consume by going to karaoke or watching

  • movies that is another way of shopping. So this is not online shopping in the

  • internet verbal stage people were thinking

  • that exhibition was going to die but that is not happening.

  • Rui Chenggang: So the model that you are talking about is perhaps about a new

  • growth point in your industry.

  • Now the floor is open to questions.

  • We are opening up our floor to comments and questions please identify yourself first.

  • Discussion to the floor once again please identify yourself and share with us

  • briefly your comments or questions on the second topic.

  • I'm sure after this discussion you are fully aware of the importance of a real

  • estate market to China.

  • Unidentified Male: I'm from - company. I'm a member of IBC so on behalf of the

  • new generation of innovators and entrepreneurs our customers in the new -

  • for growth a developing country in particular in China tend to be constrained

  • by intellectual property issues who have to leave this question to our next stage.

  • The current topic is about property market.

  • Rui Chenggang: The gentleman over there if your question is about the property

  • market could you please pass on the market microphone.

  • Unidentified Male: I'm from Shanghai electronic company I am also a member of

  • IBC.

  • Our company is largely involved in industrial automation so my question

  • is inג€” in your property market in China it seems that the property market is already

  • the engine behind many other industries such house declaration and other

  • supportive industries with the slow down in property market many other industries

  • will be affected such as our industry.

  • Do we have any solutions in order find an alternative way of developing the property

  • market when reducing our dependency on the property sector?

  • Rui Chenggang: Professor Li.

  • Li Daokui: A very good question.

  • Many people oppose the micro control or the policy change in property market

  • precisely due to the reason you have talked about.

  • Mr. Wang was talking about the alternative way for the reduction of the

  • 2% which decrease. I think that given this strategic

  • importance of the property sector we have to pay this price until we have this

  • replacement that is infrastructure development.

  • In China, every year with this different kinds of natural disasters,

  • drought, earthquakes etcetera, what does this tell.

  • This shows that we are lacking behind in terms of facility development public

  • facilities indeed.

  • I think heג€” 30 years meeting to hugely that sector that perhaps can make up for

  • the deficiencies and thus the property market has suffered.

  • Rui Chenggang: Innovation for that and best - has previously mentioned

  • and personally I fully agree with him that so long as the United States keeps his border

  • open to immigrants and all the visa applicants America will always have the

  • source of innovation and great ideas and great products and great companies.

  • However, when it comes to China innovation has always been initial if you

  • take a look at many of the Chinese companies many of the products are

  • probably more or less copycats of good products overseas.

  • Even in the IT sector if you take a look at China's leading internet products most

  • of them are Chinese counterparts of Google

  • of Amazon of yahoo etcetera, etcetera. So I think we would all agree that

  • innovation is to be encouraged, protected and properly rewarded.

  • What might be China's new approach to encourage innovation so that one day we

  • can have a Chinese apple a great new company as well.

  • I would like to begin by asking Ambassador Locke to see if you have any

  • ideas to share?

  • Gary Faye Locke: Well you know I was reading with a group of Chinese

  • entrepreneurs the other day and we were talking about and actually Chinese

  • economist too about the differences in terms of what has made America great

  • and what has made China great and one of the differences that this economies noted

  • is that United States is a society that is open known for equality and one of

  • opportunity and freedom and what makes that possible is predictability and a rule

  • of law.

  • This person was commenting and others were commenting how you know the son or

  • daughter of a high ranking government official can be taken to court and that if

  • they violated the law that if a Chinese company was unfairly treated that,

  • that Chinese company can sue the American ports and get justice.

  • What makes America great is that predictability and that rule of law which

  • underlines and serves as the foundation for freedom, equality,

  • opportunity. So that people immigrants from around the world can come to the United States

  • knowing that if they work hard that if they get a good education and even with

  • just a few dollars in their pocket they can succeed and that they can take on the

  • giants of America and indeed around the world.

  • Clearly if Chinese companies want to innovate, they are going to want to have

  • protections for their own intellectual property and that is going to require

  • a rule of law.

  • That means enforcement strong enforcement of intellectual property rights because if

  • countries don't have strong intellectual property rights and a strong predictable

  • reliable fair illegal system one of two things will happen even either that

  • innovation will stop occurring within that particular country or the innovators the

  • young people and talent and the researchers and the scientists

  • and entrepreneurs of that particular country will go some place else to engage in their

  • innovation and that is going to take away job opportunities for that particular country.

  • So it is in China and other countries economic self interest to have a strong

  • sense of rule of law predictable laws that are consistent, that are transparent

  • and that are enforced and so I think clearly you have great talent here in China,

  • great talent here in China with all the PhD's and engineers and scientist that you are producing.

  • Where will they innovate and will they benefit the Chinese society.

  • Rui Chenggang: Kris, some say the Asian culture does not particularly encourage

  • innovation or education tradition as well.

  • How did India manage to deal with that and produce good companies like Infosys?

  • Kris Gopalakrishnan: So I don't agree with this proposition that Asian culture

  • does not look at innovation. I think the right environment that most -

  • created innovation can perish anywhere in the world.

  • Now there is predictability and rule of law, meritocracy you know support from the

  • government opportunities are there,

  • education, a good education system I think innovation can perish anywhere.

  • There is a role for the government. The role for the government is to create

  • the rules of the game to make sure that the rules are implemented properly

  • and appropriately and as quickly as possible because delays are also a factor here.

  • The there is a role for the private sector

  • to make the investments and who create the entrepreneurs to create the businesses

  • that will products and services to market and these are the principles in which you

  • know you will see innovation happening

  • and that is what I think happening today you know if you look at what has happened over

  • the last 30 years many of these things are being implemented in many countries in

  • Asia and you know markets are being opened up. Today you know more markets are open we

  • are interconnected world and that is the reason why global GDP growth has happened.

  • So it is happening and that I hope is a continues process in this downturn that

  • is happening is not going to reverse that and if there is not reverse and then I am very

  • positive to say that you know the innovations will continue to happen

  • and will happen in Asia also. We are saying that in India, when India

  • opened up its economy in 1991 linked its market to the global markets.

  • There was initially concern whether Indian companies will be able to compete,

  • but Indian companies have competed and done well in some of the sectors.

  • IT sector is one of those sectors that you know we can talk about and that

  • is what I think will happen when you confidently make the right changes.

  • Rui Chenggang: Thank you.

  • Back to Professor Li.

  • In respect of China's innovation,

  • China does not lack market and talents or capital but China is different from India.

  • India's development is perhaps a bottom up approach but China perhaps is more

  • a top down approach, some people were joking that India's economic growth and India's

  • innovation is India's absence of government but China is because the

  • existence of Chinese governments.

  • Do you think that companies need to take more initiatives on each more guidance

  • from the government?

  • Li Daokui: I think that before responding to your question and let me just comment

  • on Ambassador Locke's remarks.

  • He is an excellent Ambassador transmitting the America values,

  • American message to China. In other words to have innovation you need

  • to have a rule of law and IPI protection but I don't agree with him.

  • China's past to 30 years of development is not necessarily a past of development.

  • China is lacking behind many other countries in this large space.

  • We do not need a perfect system. We only need improvements or reforms in

  • or two areas. We have lots of people in R&D,

  • in technology innovation. Once the system is in place these people

  • will call for IPI protection will go to court for the reward of justice.

  • If China follows the U.S model then China will not be able to succeed.

  • So I don't think that a single model succeeds, what about China's developments,

  • what about China's model of innovation.

  • I think we need to look at two things first the business model everything that

  • is related to service already features innovation in China for instance internet.

  • Microblog, search engines, -- , social networking.

  • If you look at indicators China's

  • development in this area has far exceeded the U.S and even India.

  • Higher and higher community service

  • another thing is invisible.

  • We are lacking behind to either manufacture sector in the technology

  • sector well we have the technologies coming from other countries but I think

  • that those areas that we are not clear off are the areas that we need more innovation

  • in the industrial sectors we need to introduce innovation to reduce our price

  • gap with our foreign competitors.

  • I think that we are moving ahead in these two areas.

  • What we need to do is to bring together

  • capital and technology in a financial sector to allow more space to the young

  • generation people like me who should not be involved in more innovation which leave

  • the space to people born after the 1970's and 80's.

  • Gary Faye Locke: Sure it has different political and legal systems and no one

  • is saying that China has to copy the United States model nor should they copy the

  • French or the German or the UK model, but clearly there has to be predictability,

  • there has to be transparency in how the laws are made.

  • I mean you cannot go around having a country where something that is perfectly

  • legal for many, many years just suddenly made illegal and people who are doing that

  • activity a year before suddenly thrown in jail or fined.

  • That discourages innovation that puts a damper on entrepreneurship.

  • So there are basic universal legal principles that every society should have

  • and certainly China has been for centuries

  • governed by laws and rules of conduct

  • and clearly now that innovation is such an important part of every countries economy

  • there has to be a foundation that encourages that innovation and certainly

  • if China does not strongly enforce intellectual property rights I'm not

  • saying that innovation will not occur in China but certainly the whole potential of

  • the Chinese citizens will not be realized

  • and certainly if you want the new entrepreneurs to great young people who

  • have great ideas.

  • If you are going to put in their hard earned money and their sweat and labor

  • into pursuing these innovations they will want to be rewarded.

  • That is by Chinese people who are working so hard because they want prosperity

  • and that is perhaps part of the genes or the genetic make up of the Chinese.

  • They are entrepreneurs, they are hard working, they want success, they want to

  • provide a better future for their own families in future generations but if they

  • cannot have their hard earned work labor protected and properly rewarded then that

  • discourages innovation. Rui Chenggang: Or they might go invest

  • a few million dollars in United States and go get American passports.

  • Gary Faye Locke: Or they yes, or they might move their operations to Korea,

  • or to India or later to Africa and other developing parts of the world.

  • So it is in China's own economic self interest to continue its progress.

  • They are making progress on rule of law

  • but if you really want to maximize the aspirations of the Chinese people we need

  • even more concerted effort on predictability, on sustained efforts on

  • promoting intellectual property rights protection and developing consistency

  • and transparency in the legal systems that you know just how it affects businesses just

  • how it affects businesses when laws are passed and whether they apply 6 months

  • from now or whether they apply and going backwards a year or so I think people want

  • that predictability that certainty. Rui Chenggang: Mr. Wong have you listened

  • to the comments made by Professor Li and Ambassador Gary considering the facts that

  • many Chinese entrepreneurs were having their own success are choosing American,

  • Canadian or Singaporean passports,

  • -- passports because think of always - can speak Chinese and have Chinese food what

  • does this tell?

  • Wang Jianlin: So my question is about the selection of passports, what does this tell?

  • Perhaps, two reasons, one is China's tradition in turn has a 5,000 years of -

  • society so there - people is much bigger

  • is much important kind of rule of law this has become a culture gene.

  • People in China especially in private business line tend to have a sense of

  • insecurity American passports or Green card will give them a greater sense of security.

  • There is another reason.

  • We have some problems in our system in the initial stage of our reform

  • and opening up the private sector is developed or was developing in not so regulated way.

  • If you look at growth in China we have a way which is selective law enforcement.

  • When the law is coming out it seems that everybody will be violating the law so

  • there is a selective way of law enforcement.

  • So many business leaders are quite afraid of such selective enforcement.

  • They want to go out to avoid it and many of those SME leaders have left China for

  • other countries but for those leaders of larger companies they are still in China.

  • Rui Chenggang: And what about innovations in China?

  • Wang Jianlin: Everybody is talking about innovation in China, but very few what succeeds.

  • Rui Chenggang: Very cautious note that we will have to conclude this very

  • interesting session on the new frontiers of China's growth.

  • I would like to thank you for all of your participation and if you have questions or

  • comments please talk to any of those CCTV cameras roaming around the conference

  • and tell them you have a point to contribute to the session.

  • Finally, a warm round applause for the panelists, thank you all very much.

Rui Chenggang: Good morning ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to CCTV's debate also

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