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I think we have got another 20% to go
我認為美元還要再下跌20%
before I feel satisfied that the US has reached
才能說美國有達成
that "weaker dollar policy" we're looking for.
我們期待的「弱勢美元政策」
And if that's the case,
如果是這樣的話
you're looking them at 130, 125, 135
你們要預期看到匯率在130,125,135(100 英鎊兌美元)
sort of over the next 6 month to a year.
在未來的六個月到一年間
At least on the dollar index,
至少在美元指數方面,
we're now lower than we were right before the 2016 election.
我們已經比2016大選前還要低了
Right, but it's still now low enough.
對,但是還不夠低
The weaker dollar policy that the Trump administration is pursuing
川普政府在推動的「弱勢美元政策」
is based on making the US competitive.
是基於增加美國的競爭力
And it has to be competitive not just for a couple of months where the dollar is weak,
而且不能只是在美元弱勢的幾個月內有競爭力
but, you know, for the next four to eight years.
而是接下來的四到八年
And to do that, you need to have a significant correction in the dollar.
要達到這個目標,就必須在美元方面有顯著的矯正
And so far, you've seen a little bit of a move,
直到最近,是有看到一點波動
this 10%, but that's nothing.
最近跌的10%,但這微不足道
What is significant?
多少才能稱得上顯著呢?
Well, I think you need a 30% of the high.
我覺得跟高點相比要有30%的跌幅
So that's what we're looking at, that 135 type area for the Euro.
英鎊兌美元在135左右是我們預期的目標
Which isn't silly, it was at 150, back in what, 2007, 2008.
這並不是天馬行空,匯率曾經達到150,在 2007或2008的時候
So do we get the 30% correction this year?
我們會在今年看到這 30% 的矯正嗎?
Yeah, I don't see why we shouldn't.
是的,我不認為我們不會
But I think it's not going be happening overnight,
但是這並不是一夕間改變的
it's a very gradual thing.
是個漸進的過程