have been seared into our consciousness during the twentieth century

像類似這樣的圖片，拍攝於奧斯威辛的集中營，

and have given us a new understanding of who we are,

在20世紀已深深地絡印在我們的意識中，

where we've come from and the times we live in.

並且讓我們對自己有新的認識，

During the twentieth century, we witnessed the atrocities

重新審視我們所處的環境和時代

of Stalin, Hitler, Mao, Pol Pot, Rwanda and other genocides,

在20世紀裡，我們目睹了

and even though the twenty-first century is only seven years old,

斯大林，希特勒，毛澤東，波爾布特，盧旺達的暴行和其他種族大屠殺，

we have already witnessed an ongoing genocide in Darfur

儘管進入21世紀只有7年的時間，

and the daily horrors of Iraq.

我們已經目睹了正在達爾富爾進行的種族大屠殺

This has led to a common understanding of our situation,

和伊拉克頻繁的恐怖襲擊。

namely that modernity has brought us terrible violence, and perhaps

這導致了我們對所處的環境有這樣的認知，

that native peoples lived in a state of harmony that we have departed from, to our peril.

那就是：＂暴力行為是現代化導致的，

Here is an example

或許原始人還可以和睦共處，而我們已經做到這點了

from an op-ed on Thanksgiving, in the Boston Globe

舉個例子來說

a couple of years ago, where the writer wrote, "The Indian life

波士頓環球報中的一篇專欄文章

was a difficult one, but there were no employment problems,

幾年前，作家寫道：“印第安人的生活

community harmony was strong, substance abuse unknown,

非常堅苦，但他們沒有就業的問題，

crime nearly non-existent, what warfare there was between tribes

他們的社會和諧有力，沒有人濫用毒品，

was largely ritualistic and seldom resulted in indiscriminate

幾乎沒有法罪率，即使兩個部落之間有發生戰爭

or wholesale slaughter." Now, you're all familiar with this treacle.

大部分都是固守儀式的，很少導致部族歧視

We teach it to our children. We hear it on television

和大屠殺的發生。＂現在，大家對這佳話也已經耳熟能詳了。

and in storybooks. Now, the original title of this session

我們從電視和故事書得知這些東西，並且我們也是這樣教育兒女。

was, "Everything You Know Is Wrong," and I'm going to present evidence

好，今天這個講座的主題是

that this particular part of our common understanding is wrong,

＂你所知道的都是錯誤的＂，然後現在我就要出示證據

that, in fact, our ancestors were far more violent than we are,

推翻大家原先對暴力的一些錯誤認知

that violence has been in decline for long stretches of time,

實際上，我們的祖先是比我們暴力許多的，

and that today we are probably living in the most peaceful time in our species' existence.

隨著時間的延繩，暴力出現的頻率才逐漸減少，

Now, in the decade of Darfur and Iraq,

我想我們現在很有可能是活在人類最和平的時期

a statement like that might seem somewhere between hallucinatory

在這個達富爾和伊拉克戰亂的時代

and obscene. But I'm going to try to convince you

說這是最和平的時代，聽起來好像天方夜譚

that that is the correct picture. The decline of violence

但我現在就要像你證明

is a fractal phenomenon. You can see it over millennia,

事實正是如此。暴力頻率的下滑

over centuries, over decades and over years,

是呈現不規律的現象。你可以從千年，

although there seems to have been a tipping point at the onset

百年，十年或年為單位來觀察

of the Age of Reason in the sixteenth century. One sees it

儘管在１６世紀理性時代的初期

all over the world, although not homogeneously.

似乎也存在過一個最高點

It's especially evident in the West, beginning with England

這是世界上普遍的現象，而不是局限於一地

and Holland around the time of the Enlightenment.

這種現象在西方尤其明顯，從英國

Let me take you on a journey of several powers of 10 --

和荷蘭大約在啟蒙時代開始

from the millennium scale to the year scale --

讓我帶你看看以１０為基數

to try to persuade you of this. Until 10,000 years ago, all humans

從以千年為單位到以年為單位

lived as hunter-gatherers, without permanent settlements

來嘗試說服你。一直到一萬年以前，所有的人類

or government. And this is the state that's commonly thought

以打獵維生，沒有固定的聚集地

to be one of primordial harmony. But the archaeologist

或政府。這個狀態通常被認為是

Lawrence Keeley, looking at casualty rates

原始的和諧狀態。但考古學家

among contemporary hunter-gatherers, which is our best source

Lawrence Keeley，通過觀察當代狩獵者的死亡率

of evidence about this way of life, has shown a rather different conclusion.

－－這種的生活方式是我們最好的證據來源

Here is a graph that he put together

－－得出了不同的結論。

showing the percentage of male deaths due to warfare

這是他所統計出來的圖表

in a number of foraging, or hunting and gathering societies.

顯示出在一些遊牧民族中

The red bars correspond to the likelihood that a man will die

男性因戰爭而死所占的比率

at the hands of another man, as opposed to passing away

紅色條表示男性死於其他人之手的可能性

of natural causes, in a variety of foraging societies

對應於自然死亡

in the New Guinea Highlands and the Amazon Rainforest.

數據來自於新幾內高地和亞馬遜雨林的

And they range from a rate of almost a 60 percent chance that a man will die

許多個遊牧民族。

at the hands of another man to, in the case of the Gebusi,

他們成員死於其他人之手的比例接近高達６０％

only a 15 percent chance. The tiny, little blue bar in the lower

在Gebusi民族中，只有１５％。

left-hand corner plots the corresponding statistic from United States

在左下角的藍色條

and Europe in the twentieth century, and includes all the deaths

描繪了２０世紀的美國和歐洲

of both World Wars. If the death rate in tribal warfare had prevailed

相應的數據，還包括了一，二次世界大戰死者。

during the 20th century, there would have been two billion deaths rather than 100 million.

如果部落戰爭中的死亡率是普通的現象

Also at the millennium scale, we can look

那麼在２０世紀，死亡戰爭人數應該是２０億而不是１億。

at the way of life of early civilizations such as the ones described

同樣的以千年為單位，我們可以來看看

in the Bible. And in this supposed source of our moral values,

被記錄在聖經早期的文明生活方式

one can read descriptions of what was expected in warfare,

在聖經這本我們理論上的道德準則中

such as the following from Numbers 31: "And they warred

我們可以看到當中對於戰爭行為的描述，

against the Midianites as the Lord commanded Moses,

好比民數記３１中記載道＂他們就照著

and they slew all the males. And Moses said unto them,

耶和華所吩咐摩西的與米甸人打戰，

'Have you saved all the women alive? Now, therefore, kill every male

他們把男丁都殺光。然後摩西對他們說，

among the little ones and kill every woman that hath known man

＂你們讓女人都活下來了嗎？因此，現在你們要把所有的男性

by lying with him, but all the women children that have not know a man

和已經出嫁的女性都殺了

by lying with him keep alive for yourselves.'" In other words,

但在女性中，凡還沒出嫁的，

kill the men; kill the children; if you see any virgins,

你們都可以把她們留下來。＂換句話說，

then you can keep them alive so that you can rape them.

殺掉男人，殺掉小孩，但如果看到少女

You can find four or five passages in the Bible of this ilk.

你就可以留下活口然後佔有她們。

Also in the Bible, one sees that the death penalty

在聖經中你可以看到４，５段類似這樣的記錄。

was the accepted punishment for crimes such as homosexuality,

同樣的死刑在聖經

adultery, blasphemy, idolatry, talking back to your parents --

是可接受的懲罰方式例如對於同性戀，

(Laughter) -- and picking up sticks on the Sabbath.

通姦，褻瀆，盲目崇拜，說父母壞話－－

Well, let's click the zoom lens

（笑聲）－－在安息日勞動等罪行。

down one order of magnitude, and look at the century scale.

好的，讓我們放大一格

Although we don't have statistics for warfare throughout

來觀察一下以世紀為單位的數據。

the Middle Ages to modern times,

儘管我們沒有所有

we know just from conventional history -- the evidence

從中世紀到現代戰爭的數據

was under our nose all along that there has been a reduction

我們僅用現有的歷史－－

in socially sanctioned forms of violence.

有關這樣的數據一直近在眼前：

For example, any social history will reveal that mutilation and torture

人類社會所支持的暴力行為一直在減少

were routine forms of criminal punishment. The kind of infraction

例如，文明史都有記錄截肢和酷刑

today that would give you a fine, in those days would result in

是常見的罪行懲罰方式。

your tongue being cut out, your ears being cut off, you being blinded,

如今只能讓你被罰款的違法，在過去可能會導致

a hand being chopped off and so on.

你被割舌，割耳，挖眼，

There were numerous ingenious forms of sadistic capital punishment:

斬手等結果

burning at the stake, disemboweling, breaking on the wheel,

世界各地有無數中變態的斬首方式：

being pulled apart by horses and so on.

捆在木上燒，開膛破肚，車裂，

The death penalty was a sanction for a long list of non-violent crimes:

五馬分屍等等。

criticizing the king, stealing a loaf of bread. Slavery, of course,

而准予處以死刑的非暴力罪行有很長的列表：

was the preferred labor-saving device, and cruelty was

比如批評國王，偷麵包。當然，奴隸制，

a popular form of entertainment. Perhaps the most vivid example

是種理想的節約勞力的制度，而殘酷的行為則被認為

was the practice of cat burning, in which a cat was hoisted

是一種流行的娛樂方式。或許最生動的例子

on a stage and lowered in a sling into a fire,

就是火燒貓的行為，貓在平台上吊被起來

and the spectators shrieked in laughter as the cat, howling in pain,

通過吊索慢慢放入火中，

was burned to death.

圍觀的人發出愉悅的尖叫聲，而貓在火中痛苦地嚎叫，

What about one-on-one murder? Well, there, there are good statistics,

直到死亡。

because many municipalities recorded the cause of death.

那麼有關於一對一凶殺呢？這裡有很好的統計資料，

The criminologist Manuel Eisner

因為當時市政當局都記錄了死因。

scoured all of the historical records across Europe

犯罪學家Manuel Eisner

for homicide rates in any village, hamlet, town, county

整理了歐洲所有的歷史紀錄

that he could find, and he supplemented them

涉及到他所能找到的鄉，村，鎮，縣

with national data, when nations started keeping statistics.

然後他綜合了

He plotted on a logarithmic scale, going from 100 deaths

有數據以來的所有國家數據

per 100,000 people per year, which was approximately the rate

他用對數表示，從每年每十萬人有一百人死亡

of homicide in the Middle Ages. And the figure plummets down

，略等於中世紀的兇殺案發生率。

to less than one homicide per 100,000 people per year

然後數據降低到了

in seven or eight European countries. Then, there is a slight uptick

每年每十萬人中少於一例死亡率

in the 1960s. The people who said that rock 'n' roll would lead

在七到八個歐洲國家。然後再１９６０年代稍有上漲。

to the decline of moral values actually had a grain of truth to that.

那部分說搖滾導致道德淪失的人

But there was a decline from at least two orders of magnitude

確實是有一定的道理。

in homicide from the Middle Ages to the present,

但謀殺率數據至少減少有兩個數量級

and the elbow occurred in the early sixteenth century.

從中世紀到現在，

Let's click down now to the decade scale.

數據拐角出現在１６世紀初期。

According to non-governmental organizations

接下來以十年為單位來觀察。

that keep such statistics, since 1945, in Europe and the Americas,

根據一些非政府組織的相關數據

there has been a steep decline in interstate wars,

從１９４５年起，在歐洲和美洲

in deadly ethnic riots or pogroms, and in military coups,

的國家之間的戰爭，

even in South America. Worldwide, there's been a steep decline

嚴重的種族暴亂和軍事政變的數量急遽減少

in deaths in interstate wars. The yellow bars here show the number

甚至連南美洲也是如此。全球普遍上，因國家之間的戰爭的死亡數量急遽減少

of deaths per war per year from 1950 to the present.

這裡的黃色條顯示

And, as you can see, the death rate goes down from 65,000 deaths

從１９５０年到現在每年每場戰爭的死亡數量。

per conflict per year in the 1950s to less than 2,000 deaths

正如你所見，死亡數從原先１９５０年的每年每場戰爭的65,000例

per conflict per year in this decade, as horrific as it is.

減少至近十年每年每場戰爭的的2,000例死亡，

Even in the year scale, one can see a decline of violence.

儘管這些戰爭都很殘酷。

Since the end of the Cold War, there have been fewer civil wars,

就算是以年的單位也能看出暴力行為的減少

fewer genocides -- indeed, a 90 percent reduction since post-World War II highs --

自從冷戰結束，內戰就很少再發生，

and even a reversal of the 1960s uptick in homicide and violent crime.

種族殘殺幾乎絕跡－－其實，數據從二戰之後的最高點降低了９０％－－

This is from the FBI Uniform Crime Statistics. You can see

即使在６０年代凶殺率的暴力有稍微回升。

that there is a fairly low rate of violence in the '50s and the '60s,

這是聯邦調查局的數據統計：你可以看到

then it soared upward for several decades, and began

在５０年代和６０年代暴力行為發生率相對較低

a precipitous decline, starting in the 1990s, so that it went back

經過幾十年的上升然後開始

to the level that was last enjoyed in 1960.

從９０年代急速的下降，一直回到

President Clinton, if you're here, thank you.

將近６０年代的水平

(Laughter)

柯林頓總統，如果您在這裡，我對您說聲謝謝。

So the question is, why are so many people so wrong

（笑聲）

about something so important? I think there are a number of reasons.

所以問題是：為什麼這麼多的人對於如此重大的問題都持有錯誤觀念？

One of them is we have better reporting. The Associated Press

我想原因很多。

is a better chronicler of wars over the surface of the Earth

其一我們有了更多的媒體報導。＂美聯社

than sixteenth-century monks were.

比起１６世紀的僧人

There's a cognitive illusion. We cognitive psychologists know that the easier it is

是地球上更好的戰爭編年體的作者。＂

to recall specific instances of something,

還有一個認知的幻覺：認知的心理學家都知道

the higher the probability that you assign to it.

曝光率越高的事

Things that we read about in the paper with gory footage

越容易勾起你的具體回憶。

burn into memory more than reports of a lot more people dying

我們每天閱讀報紙中血淋淋的描寫

in their beds of old age. There are dynamics in the opinion

這對我們記憶的影響遠遠大於

and advocacy markets: no one ever attracted observers, advocates

大部分人是在病床上自然老死的事實。

and donors by saying

群衆意見導向和市場宣傳上有這樣的論調：

things just seem to be getting better and better.

說＂事情看來變得越來越好。＂是不能引起觀察家，擁護者

(Laughter)

和捐助者們的注意的

There's guilt about our treatment of native peoples

（眾笑）

in modern intellectual life, and an unwillingness to acknowledge

在這文明的社會裡處理原住民問題的過失

there could be anything good about Western culture.

使我們普遍覺得很內疚，以致不情願承認

And of course, our change in standards can outpace the change

關於西方文化一些好的方面。

in behavior. One of the reasons violence went down

當然，我們在標準上的改變可以領先行為上的該變。

is that people got sick of the carnage and cruelty in their time.

暴力行為下降的原因之一

That's a process that seems to be continuing,

是因爲人們對大屠殺和殘忍性已經感到厭倦了。

but if it outstrips behavior by the standards of the day,

在行爲上看起來還是個正在進行中的改變，

things always look more barbaric than they would have been

但如果標準認知上的改變超過行為上的改變，

by historic standards. So today, we get exercised -- and rightly so --

在歷史上看來事情永遠比以前更野蠻

if a handful of murderers get executed by lethal injection

所以，今天，我們受到訓練－－很應該地－－

in Texas after a 15-year appeal process. We don't consider

如果一小撮殺人犯在德州經過１５年的上訴程序

that a couple of hundred years ago, they may have been burned

被判以注射死刑的懲罰。我們不會去想

at the stake for criticizing the king after a trial

在幾百年前，只因為他們批評了國王

that lasted 10 minutes, and indeed, that that would have been repeated

在經過１０分鐘的審判後

over and over again. Today, we look at capital punishment

他們會被處以火刑－－的卻，那種情形很可能會重複發生

as evidence of how low our behavior can sink,

今天我們把極刑看成

rather than how high our standards have risen.

我們行為淪落程度的證據，

Well, why has violence declined? No one really knows,

而不是我們行為標準的進化。

but I have read four explanations, all of which, I think,

那麼，為什麼暴力行為下降了？沒有人知道，

have some grain of plausibility. The first is, maybe

但是我讀過４種解釋，它們都是我認為

Thomas Hobbes got it right. He was the one who said

都是比較可信的。第一種解釋是：

that life in a state of nature was "solitary, poor, nasty, brutish

或許Thomas Hobbes是對的。他說過

and short." Not because, he argued,

自然狀態下生命是＂孤獨，貧窮，骯髒，野蠻

humans have some primordial thirst for blood

和短暫的。＂不是因為

or aggressive instinct or territorial imperative,

人們有著對血腥行為，

but because of the logic of anarchy. In a state of anarchy,

侵略性或領土保護的原始本能，

there's a constant temptation to invade your neighbors preemptively,

而是因為無政府狀態的邏輯性。在無政府的狀態下，

before they invade you. More recently, Thomas Schelling

在你鄰居侵犯你之前，先下手為強是無可避免的趨勢

gives the analogy of a homeowner who hears a rustling

最近Thomas Schelling

in the basement. Being a good American, he has a pistol

做了以下比喻：一個房東聽到地下室有沙沙的聲音

in the nightstand, pulls out his gun, and walks down the stairs.

做為一位美國好公民，他的床頭櫃裡有一把手槍

And what does he see but a burglar with a gun in his hand.

於是他裝上子彈，走下樓梯

Now, each one of them is thinking,

然後他看到盜賊拿著一把手槍

"I don't really want to kill that guy, but he's about to kill me.

他們倆個都在想

Maybe I had better shoot him, before he shoots me,

＂如果我不殺了他，就是他殺了我。＂

especially since, even if he doesn't want to kill me,

或許在他幹掉我之前，我得先下為強

he's probably worrying right now that I might kill him

特別是，就算他沒有打算殺我

before he kills me." And so on.

他現在很可能會認為在他幹掉我之前，我會先把他幹掉。＂

Hunter-gatherer peoples explicitly go through this train of thought,

等等...

and will often raid their neighbors out of fear of being raided first.

狩獵為生的人們經過這樣明確的思考，

Now, one way of dealing with this problem is by deterrence.

通常會因為擔心自己先被幹掉而先幹掉他們的鄰居

You don't strike first, but you have a publicly announced policy

如今，解決這個問題唯一的方法是通過威懾：

that you will retaliate savagely if you are invaded.

你不先進攻，但是你先公開宣稱

The only thing is that it's

如果你受到侵犯，你將會進行野蠻的報復

liable to having its bluff called, and therefore can only work

這樣宣稱唯一的事情是

if it's credible. To make it credible, you must avenge all insults

很可能被稱為虛張聲勢，所以只有在可信的情況下進行才變得可能

and settle all scores, which leads to the cycles of bloody vendetta.

為了使其變得有可能，你必須報復所有的侵犯

Life becomes an episode of "The Sopranos." Hobbes' solution,

和擺平所有的恩怨，但這又會導致血腥復仇的惡性循環

the "Leviathan," was that if authority for the legitimate use

人生就會變成像電視劇＂黑道家族＂。Hobbes的解決方案為

of violence was vested in a single democratic agency -- a leviathan --

如果對暴力行為，權力的合法使用

then such a state can reduce the temptation of attack,

是屬於一個單一的民主結構－－　一個權力巨獸　－－

because any kind of aggression will be punished,

那麽這樣一個國家就能降低攻擊的誘惑性，

leaving its profitability as zero. That would remove the temptation

因為任何一種侵犯都會受到懲罰，

to invade preemptively, out of fear of them attacking you first.