I'm giving a short slide show this morning

兩年前，我在這裡講過一場演講，後來，同樣的內容我大概又講了2000次

that I'm giving for the very first time, so --

今天早上的投影片內容

well it's -- I don't want or need to raise the bar,

可是我頭一次講的

I'm actually trying to lower the bar.

我這樣說，並非想提高標準

Because I've cobbled this together

其實我是想降低標準。

to try to meet the challenge of this session.

因為，我東拼西湊了這些資料

And I was reminded by Karen Armstrong's fantastic presentation

來配合今天的演講場合。

that religion really properly understood

我不禁想起了凱倫‧阿姆斯壯( Karen Armstrong) 曾說過

is not about belief, but about behavior.

宗教，恰當地來說，其實非關人類的信仰

Perhaps we should say the same thing about optimism.

而是人類的行為。

How dare we be optimistic?

或許，我們也該如此看待「樂觀」這件事。

Optimism is sometimes characterized as a belief, an intellectual posture.

我們怎敢說自己是樂觀派呢？

As Mahatma Gandhi famously said,

樂觀，有時被當成一種信仰，一種理智的態度

"You must become the change you wish to see in the world."

誠如印度國父甘地所言，

And the outcome about which

「你希望世界變成什麼樣子，你自己要先成為那個樣子」

we wish to be optimistic is not going to be created

我們想要樂觀，可是樂觀

by the belief alone, except to the extent that the belief

並不會因為我們想要而自動產生

brings about new behavior. But the word "behavior"

除非我們的想法，某個程度上

is also, I think, sometimes misunderstood in this context.

可以帶來新的行為，但是「行為」這個字眼

I'm a big advocate of changing

我覺得，有時候在這種情況下會被誤解

the lightbulbs and buying hybrids,

我是大力贊成換省電燈泡

and Tipper and I put 33 solar panels on our house,

還有開油電車的人，

and dug the geothermal wells, and did all of that other stuff.

我和太太一同幫家裡裝了 33 片太陽能板，

But, as important as it is to change the lightbulbs,

也開挖地熱井，還有做了許多其他類似的事情。

it is more important to change the laws.

雖然，換省電燈泡很重要，

And when we change our behavior in our daily lives,

但是，修訂法條更重要。

we sometimes leave out the citizenship part

當我們在改變每天的行為模式時，

and the democracy part. In order to be optimistic about this,

卻忘了我們還有公民權利

we have to become incredibly active as citizens in our democracy.

還有民主制度，為了要可以真正樂觀，

In order to solve the climate crisis,

我們必須更積極扮演好我們的公民角色。

we have to solve the democracy crisis.

要解決地球的氣候危機，

And we have one.

我們要先解決我們的民主危機。

I have been trying to tell this story for a long time.

我們的民主真的有危機。

I was reminded of that recently, by a woman

這個故事我已經講過很多次了。

who walked past the table I was sitting at,

最近有位女士又讓我想起這個故事

just staring at me as she walked past. She was in her 70s,

我那時坐著，她走過我的旁邊

looked like she had a kind face. I thought nothing of it

她一直盯著我看，年紀大約七十來歲

until I saw from the corner of my eye

她看起來很和藹，我本來也不以為意

she was walking from the opposite direction,

後來我從眼睛的餘光看到她

also just staring at me. And so I said, "How do you do?"

她從對面方向朝我走來，

And she said, "You know, if you dyed your hair black,

她還是一直盯著我看，於是，我跟她說：「您好！」

you would look just like Al Gore." (Laughter)

然後，她就說：「你知道嗎？如果你把頭髮染黑

Many years ago, when I was a young congressman,

你看起來就像高爾副總統。」（哄堂大笑）

I spent an awful lot of time dealing with the challenge

多年前，我還是個年輕的國會議員

of nuclear arms control -- the nuclear arms race.

那時我花了好多時間

And the military historians taught me,

處理核武限制、核武競賽的問題。

during that quest, that military conflicts are typically

在那段期間，軍事專家告訴我

put into three categories: local battles,

軍事衝突基本上分為三大類

regional or theater wars, and the rare but all-important

局部戰事、區域戰爭

global, world war -- strategic conflicts.

以及罕見但嚴重的世界大戰

And each level of conflict requires a different allocation of resources,

戰略性衝突。

a different approach,

不同衝突階段需要不同的資源分配

a different organizational model.

不同的兵法

Environmental challenges fall into the same three categories,

以及不同的組織形態

and most of what we think about

環保的挑戰同樣也可以分成這三類

are local environmental problems: air pollution, water pollution,

目前大部分人的想法

hazardous waste dumps. But there are also

都停留在局部的環保問題：空氣污染、水污染

regional environmental problems, like acid rain

有害廢棄物棄置等。

from the Midwest to the Northeast, and from Western Europe

但是還有區域的環保問題，像是酸雨

to the Arctic, and from the Midwest

從中西部到東北部，從西歐到北極

out the Mississippi into the dead zone of the Gulf of Mexico.

從中西部密西西比以外

And there are lots of those. But the climate crisis

到墨西哥灣的死區。

is the rare but all-important

這類區域環保問題太多了，但是氣候危機

global, or strategic, conflict.

是屬於罕見而嚴重的全球性問題

Everything is affected. And we have to organize our response

是戰略性的衝突。

appropriately. We need a worldwide, global mobilization

全球無一倖免！大家必須組織動員起來

for renewable energy, conservation, efficiency

一起好好面對這個問題，我們需要全球動員

and a global transition to a low-carbon economy.

找尋再生能源，保護地球資源，提升效能

We have work to do. And we can mobilize resources

全世界一起轉型成「低碳經濟」。

and political will. But the political will

我們有好多事情要做，我們可以動員各種資源

has to be mobilized, in order to mobilize the resources.

包括政治力，但政治力要先動員起來

Let me show you these slides here.

才能有效動員其他資源

I thought I would start with the logo. What's missing here,

我來給大家看些投影片

of course, is the North Polar ice cap.

我想就從這個LOGO開始，這裡已經消失的

Greenland remains. Twenty-eight years ago, this is what the

當然，就是北極冰帽

polar ice cap -- the North Polar ice cap -- looked like

格林蘭還在，28年前，這裡還是極地冰帽

at the end of the summer, at the fall equinox.

北極冰帽

This last fall, I went to the Snow and Ice Data Center

看起來是夏末秋分的時節。

in Boulder, Colorado, and talked to the researchers

這是去年秋天，我去冰雪資料中心

here in Monterey at the Naval Postgraduate Laboratory.

在科羅拉多的博爾德市，向研究人員演講

This is what's happened in the last 28 years.

這是在蒙特雷的海軍研究所實驗室。

To put it in perspective, 2005 was the previous record.

這是過去 28 年的情形

Here's what happened last fall

正確來說，上次記錄是2005做的。

that has really unnerved the researchers.

這是去年秋天的情形

The North Polar ice cap is the same size geographically --

這讓研究人員相當緊張。

doesn't look quite the same size --

從地形上來看，北極冰帽大小非常像美國。

but it is exactly the same size as the United States,

雖然看起來沒有完全像，

minus an area roughly equal to the state of Arizona.

但它跟美國的大小一樣，

The amount that disappeared in 2005

扣掉大約一個亞利桑納州的面積。

was equivalent to everything east of the Mississippi.

2005 年冰帽消失的面積

The extra amount that disappeared last fall

等於密西西比以東的面積。

was equivalent to this much. It comes back in the winter,

去年秋天再消失的面積

but not as permanent ice, as thin ice --

等於這麼多，它在冬天又回來了

vulnerable. The amount remaining could be completely gone

但這並不是永久冰，而是薄冰。

in summer in as little as five years.

是會融化的，現在僅存的冰也是會完全消失的

That puts a lot of pressure on Greenland.

大約五年後的夏天就會消失。

Already, around the Arctic Circle --

這讓格林蘭面臨極大壓力。

this is a famous village in Alaska. This is a town

這是在北極圈附近

in Newfoundland. Antarctica. Latest studies from NASA.

這是阿拉斯加一個有名的村莊，這是個小鎮

The amount of a moderate-to-severe snow melting

在紐芬蘭，在南極洲，太空總署的最新研究。

of an area equivalent to the size of California.

中度到重度融冰的數量

"They were the best of times,

約等於一個加州。

they were the worst of times": the most famous opening sentence

這是最好的時代

in English literature. I want to share briefly

也是最壞的時代：這是英國文學

a tale of two planets. Earth and Venus

最有名的開場白，我想要簡短地

are exactly the same size. Earth's diameter

跟你們講兩個星球的故事

is about 400 kilometers larger, but essentially the same size.

地球和金星大小一樣

They have exactly the same amount of carbon.

地球直徑約多了 400 公里，但基本上，兩者大小一樣。

But the difference is, on Earth, most of the carbon

兩者含碳量也相同

has been leeched over time out of the atmosphere,

但不同的是，地球上大多數的碳

deposited in the ground as coal, oil,

經過長時間，都被從大氣層中吸了出去，

natural gas, etc. On Venus, most of it

藏在土壤中，像是煤炭、石油

is in the atmosphere. The difference is that our temperature

天然氣等等，而在金星，大部分的碳

is 59 degrees on average. On Venus,

都在大氣層中，結果我們的溫度

it's 855. This is relevant to our current strategy

平均 59 度，而金星的溫度是855 度

of taking as much carbon out of the ground as quickly as possible,

這跟我們現在的做法有相當的關係

and putting it into the atmosphere.

我們正在加速把土壤中的碳拿出來

It's not because Venus is slightly closer to the Sun.

放回大氣層裡頭去。

It's three times hotter than Mercury,

金星不是因為離太陽近一點

which is right next to the Sun. Now, briefly,

所以它比水星熱三倍，

here's an image you've seen, as one of the only old images,

水星就在太陽的旁邊，簡單來說

but I show it because I want to briefly give you CSI: Climate.

看看這張圖片，這是你看過的照片，

The global scientific community says:

我讓大家簡單看看氣候犯罪現場的照片。

man-made global warming pollution, put into the atmosphere,

全球科學界都說，

thickening this, is trapping more of the outgoing infrared.

人類造成全球溫室污染，排入大氣層中

You all know that. At the last

把這個加厚，更多紅外線無法輻射出去。

IPCC summary, the scientists wanted to say,

這些你都已經知道了

"How certain are you?" They wanted to answer that "99 percent."

根據 IPCC 最新的說法，科學家想告訴我們

The Chinese objected, and so the compromise was

「你有多確定呢？」科學家想回答：「百分之九十九」

"more than 90 percent."

中國代表反對這種說法，所以折衷的說法是

Now, the skeptics say, "Oh, wait a minute,

「百分之九十以上」

this could be variations in this energy

現在，懷疑論者說，「等一下」

coming in from the sun." If that were true,

這裡面有許多變數，來自太陽的能量。

the stratosphere would be heated as well as the

如果這是真的話

lower atmosphere, if it's more coming in.

同溫層的溫度會上升

If it's more being trapped on the way out, then you would

大氣層下層溫度也會上升，如果有更多熱量進來。

expect it to be warmer here and cooler here. Here is the lower atmosphere.

如果有更多紅外線出不去

Here's the stratosphere: cooler.

你可以預期這裡比較熱，這裡比較涼，這裡是大氣層的下層。

CSI: Climate.

這裡是同溫層，比較涼。

Now, here's the good news. Sixty-eight percent of Americans now believe

氣候犯罪現場的分析

that human activity is responsible

這裡有些好消息，現在有68%的美國人相信

for global warming. Sixty-nine percent believe that the Earth is heating up

人類要為全球暖化負責

in a significant way. There has been progress,

有69％相信地球的溫度正急遽升高

but here is the key: when given a list

觀念上的確是有些進步了

of challenges to confront, global warming is still listed at near the bottom.

但重點是：如果要開一張清單

What is missing is a sense of urgency.

列出我們要面對的挑戰，全球暖化還是被排在很下面。

If you agree with the factual analysis,

因為我們缺少了急迫感。

but you don't feel the sense of urgency,

如果你都同意這些事實分析，

where does that leave you?

但是你卻沒有急迫感，

Well, the Alliance for Climate Protection, which I head

你會怎麼做呢？

in conjunction with Current TV -- who did this pro bono --

我所領導的氣候保護聯盟

did a worldwide contest to do commercials on how to communicate this.

跟 CurrentTV 一起共同舉辦了

This is the winner.

一場全球廣告競賽，來宣傳這件事情。

NBC -- I'll show all of the networks here -- the top journalists

這是得獎作品。

for NBC asked 956 questions in 2007

我給大家看看所有的媒體 - NBC 電視台他們頂尖的記者群

of the presidential candidates: two of them were about

2007 年向總統候選人提了 956 個問題

the climate crisis. ABC: 844 questions, two about the climate crisis.

只有兩個是關於氣候危機的問題

Fox: two. CNN: two. CBS: zero.

ABC 電視台：844個問題，只有兩個關於氣候危機

From laughs to tears -- this is one of the older

Fox 電視台：兩個，CNN 新聞網：兩個，CBS 電視台：沒有

tobacco commercials.

樂極生悲，這是一個很老的

So here's what we're doing.

香煙廣告。

This is gasoline consumption in all of these countries. And us.

這是我們正在做的事情。

But it's not just the developed nations.

這是這些國家的石油消耗量，這是我們美國的消耗量。

The developing countries are now following us

不是只有已開發國家這樣而已。

and accelerating their pace. And actually,

開發中國家現在也步上了我們的後塵

their cumulative emissions this year are the equivalent

而且腳步更快。事實上，

to where we were in 1965. And they're catching up

他們今年的累積排放量已經等於

very dramatically. The total concentrations:

我們在 1965 年的水準了。

by 2025, they will be essentially where we were in 1985.

他們還在拼命急起直追

If the wealthy countries were completely missing

到 2025 年的總排放量，大概會到達我們在 1985 年的水準。

from the picture, we would still have this crisis.

就算有錢國家全都消失了

But we have given to the developing countries

從這圖上來看，我們還是得面臨危機。

the technologies and the ways of thinking

因為我們給了開發中國家

that are creating the crisis. This is in Bolivia --

跟我們一樣的科技、一樣的思惟模式

over thirty years.

因而產生一樣的危機，這是玻利維亞

This is peak fishing in a few seconds. The '60s.

過去三十年的情形

'70s. '80s. '90s. We have to stop this. And the good news is that we can.

接下來幾秒鐘是捕魚高峰期的圖，60年代

We have the technologies.

70年代、80年代、90年代，我們必須停止這種情形，好消息是我們做得到

We have to have a unified view of how to go about this:

我們有這方面的技術。

the struggle against poverty in the world

至於要怎麼做，我們必須要有一致的看法

and the challenge of cutting wealthy country emissions,

全世界都在對抗貧窮

all has a single, very simple solution.

同時還有降低富有國家碳排放量的挑戰，

People say, "What's the solution?" Here it is.

這些問題有個唯一的、簡單的解決之道。

Put a price on carbon. We need a CO2 tax, revenue neutral,

有人問：「什麼解決之道？」，就是這個。

to replace taxation on employment, which was invented by Bismarck --

給碳訂個價錢，我們需要徵收二氧化碳的稅，但不增加整體稅賦，

and some things have changed

來取代以聘雇課稅的方式，這是俾斯麥發明的

since the 19th century.

自從十九世紀開始

In the poor world, we have to integrate the responses

有些事情就已經變了。

to poverty with the solutions to the climate crisis.

對貧窮國家來說，貧窮問題

Plans to fight poverty in Uganda

要跟氣候危機一起解決。

are mooted, if we do not solve the climate crisis.

烏干達對抗貧窮的計畫會被不斷討論

But responses can actually make a huge difference

如果我們不一併解決氣候危機的問題。

in the poor countries. This is a proposal

但是貧窮國家對抗貧窮的方式

that has been talked about a lot in Europe.

可能會有極大的差異。

This was from Nature magazine. These are concentrating

在歐洲，這個提案已經被廣泛地討論過了。

solar, renewable energy plants, linked in a so-called "supergrid"

這是 Nature 雜誌寫的，這些是密集的

to supply all of the electrical power

太陽能再生能源電廠，串連成一個超級輸電網

to Europe, largely from developing countries -- high-voltage DC currents.

提供全歐洲所有的電力

This is not pie in the sky; this can be done.

這些多半來自開發中國家，高壓直流電。

We need to do it for our own economy.

這不是空話，這是可行的。

The latest figures show that the old model

為了我們的經濟，我們得這麼做

is not working. There are a lot of great investments

最新的數據顯示，過去的舊模式是行不通的

that you can make. If you are investing in tar sands

不過還是有很多你可以投資的東西

or shale oil, then you have a portfolio

如果你投資了瀝青砂，或頁岩油

that is crammed with sub-prime carbon assets.

那你的投資組合裡面

And it is based on an old model.

就有很多次級碳資產。

Junkies find veins in their toes when the ones

這是根據舊有的模式

in their arms and their legs collapse. Developing tar sands

當吸毒的人手臂跟腳的靜脈血管都萎縮了

and coal shale is the equivalent. Here are just a few of the investments

他們就會發現自己腳趾頭的靜脈了。

that I personally think make sense.

開發瀝青砂和煤炭頁岩結果都一樣

I have a stake in these, so I'll have a disclaimer there.

這是一些我個人認為值得的投資。

But geothermal, concentrating solar,

我自己也投資了一些，所以對此我會發表免責聲明

advanced photovoltaics, efficiency and conservation.

但是地熱，密集太陽能

You've seen this slide before, but there's a change.

高階太陽能發電，兼顧效能與節能。

The only two countries that didn't ratify

你以前有看過這張投影片，但現在有點不一樣了。

-- and now there's only one. Australia had an election.

那兩個不簽署的國家

And there was a campaign in Australia

現在只剩下一個了，澳洲經過了一場選舉。

that involved television and Internet and radio commercials

當時在澳洲有一系列宣傳活動

to lift the sense of urgency for the people there.

包括電視、網路、廣播廣告等

And we trained 250 people to give the slide show

為了加深人們的急迫感。

in every town and village and city in Australia.

我們訓練了250人來講這些投影片

Lot of other things contributed to it,

給澳洲每個小鎮、村子，還有城裡的人聽。

but the new Prime Minister announced that

很多其他的資源也都做了貢獻

his very first priority would be to change Australia's position

最後澳洲的新總理宣佈

on Kyoto, and he has. Now, they came to an awareness

他上任後的第一件事就是要改變澳洲對京都議定書的立場

partly because of the horrible drought that they have had.

他的承諾他真的做到了。

This is Lake Lanier. My friend Heidi Cullen

現在他們總算意識到問題了，有部份原因是因為澳洲的乾旱。