which was this very implausible technology

去年我花了7分鐘和你們講了“獵戶座計劃”的故事，

that technically could have worked,

那是種令人難以置信的科學技術

but it had this one-year political window where it could have happened.

理論上是可行的

So it didn't happen. It was a dream that did not happen.

但由於只有一年的政治窗口期

This year I'm going to tell you the story of the birth of digital computing.

所以它成了一個從未實現的夢。

This was a perfect introduction.

今年我將和你們談一談數位計算的誕生

And it's a story that did work. It did happen,

這是一個完美的介紹，

and the machines are all around us.

並且這是真實發生的故事，

And it was a technology that was inevitable.

類似的機器在我們身邊無處不在。

If the people I'm going to tell you the story about,

這一技術是歷史的必然產物。

if they hadn't done it, somebody else would have.

今天我在演講裡提到的這群人

So, it was sort of the right idea at the right time.

就算他們沒有研發這一技術，一定會有別的人來研發。

This is Barricelli's universe. This is the universe we live in now.

所以數位計算算是種順應當時的時代的理念。

It's the universe in which these machines

這是Barricelli世界。這也是今天我們所生活的世界。

are now doing all these things, including changing biology.

正是在這樣的世界裡，

I'm starting the story with the first atomic bomb at Trinity,

這些機器現在正做著各種各樣的工作，比如改變我們的生物學研究。

which was the Manhattan Project. It was a little bit like TED:

首先我想談一談在Trinity進行的第一次原子彈試驗

it brought a whole lot of very smart people together.

也就是曼哈頓計劃，這有點像我們TED

And three of the smartest people were

都是把很多絕頂聰明的人匯集在一起。

Stan Ulam, Richard Feynman and John von Neumann.

其中3個最聰明的人是

And it was Von Neumann who said, after the bomb,

斯塔尼斯拉夫·烏拉姆，理查德·費曼和約翰·馮·紐曼

he was working on something much more important than bombs:

在研究完原子彈以後，馮紐曼說

he's thinking about computers.

他正研究一件比原子彈更重要的事

So, he wasn't only thinking about them; he built one. This is the machine he built.

那就是電腦。

(Laughter)

他不僅僅是空想而已，他還造了一台。這就是他造的機器。

He built this machine,

（笑聲）

and we had a beautiful demonstration of how this thing really works,

他造了這台機器

with these little bits. And it's an idea that goes way back.

並且他漂亮的演示了這台機器如何以位元為單位運轉

The first person to really explain that

位元這一概念其實很早就有了

was Thomas Hobbes, who, in 1651,

第一個真正解釋這一概念的人

explained how arithmetic and logic are the same thing,

叫湯馬斯·霍布斯

and if you want to do artificial thinking and artificial logic,

1651年，他解釋了算數和邏輯從某種意義上說其實是一回事

you can do it all with arithmetic.

如果你想實現人工思考和人工邏輯，

He said you needed addition and subtraction.

你都可以用算數的方法來實現。

Leibniz, who came a little bit later -- this is 1679 --

他說你只需要做加法和減法就行了。

showed that you didn't even need subtraction.

在他之後的萊布尼茨

You could do the whole thing with addition.

在1679年證明你甚至都不需要做減法

Here, we have all the binary arithmetic and logic

只需要做加法就行了。

that drove the computer revolution.

我們有了所有的二進制運算和邏輯

And Leibniz was the first person to really talk about building such a machine.

這些帶來了電腦革命

He talked about doing it with marbles,

萊布尼茨是第一個真正討論建造這一機器的人

having gates and what we now call shift registers,

他想利用大理石讓機器實現這樣的運算和邏輯

where you shift the gates, drop the marbles down the tracks.

這樣的機器有一種“門”，我們今天稱之為移位寄存器

And that's what all these machines are doing,

當你打開“門”時，大理石就會從門裡穿過掉在軌道上

except, instead of doing it with marbles,

其實這就是今天我們所有類似機器的運作原理

they're doing it with electrons.

但是用的不是大理石

And then we jump to Von Neumann, 1945,

而是電子。

when he sort of reinvents the whole same thing.

接著我們跳到1945年

And 1945, after the war, the electronics existed

馮諾曼發明了一個幾乎一樣的東西。

to actually try and build such a machine.

1945年，二戰之後

So June 1945 -- actually, the bomb hasn't even been dropped yet --

當時的電子工業真正的開始嘗試建造這麼一種機器

and Von Neumann is putting together all the theory to actually build this thing,

所以在1945年的六月，實際上那時候原子彈還沒投下

which also goes back to Turing,

馮諾曼已經把實際生產這種機器所需的一切理論準備好了

who, before that, gave the idea that you could do all this

再來看看Turing (圖靈)

with a very brainless, little, finite state machine,

他在之前已經有了一個想法，那就是

just reading a tape in and reading a tape out.

你可以用一種非常簡單，有限狀態的機器完成所有的工作

The other sort of genesis of what Von Neumann did

就好比讀取一盤磁帶

was the difficulty of how you would predict the weather.

另一個馮諾曼的天才之處

Lewis Richardson saw how you could do this with a cellular array of people,

就是克服預測天氣的困難

giving them each a little chunk, and putting it together.

Lewis Richardson發現可以利用單元陣列的人

Here, we have an electrical model illustrating a mind having a will,

給他們每人一小塊，然後拼在一起

but capable of only two ideas.

這兒我們有一個電子模型，演示了一個有思維的“頭腦”

(Laughter)

但只有兩個想法

And that's really the simplest computer.

（笑聲）

It's basically why you need the qubit,

這真的要算是最簡單的電腦

because it only has two ideas.

這基本上解釋了我們為什麼需要量子位元

And you put lots of those together,

一個位元只有兩種狀態

you get the essentials of the modern computer:

一旦你把很多這樣的量子位元組織起來

the arithmetic unit, the central control, the memory,

就成了我們今天電腦的核心部分

the recording medium, the input and the output.

運算單元、中央控制器、記憶體

But, there's one catch. This is the fatal -- you know,

儲存媒介，輸入和輸出

we saw it in starting these programs up.

但是有個很致命的一點

The instructions which govern this operation

我們在開始這個程序時會發現

must be given in absolutely exhaustive detail.

指導這一操作的指令

So, the programming has to be perfect, or it won't work.

必須做到非常非常的詳細

If you look at the origins of this,

所以程式必須設計得非常完美，否則它就無法執行

the classic history sort of takes it all back to the ENIAC here.

如果你回過頭看，

But actually, the machine I'm going to tell you about,

這一切的起因都可以追溯到ENIAC計算機。

the Institute for Advanced Study machine, which is way up there,

但是實際上，今天我將要介紹的機器

really should be down there. So, I'm trying to revise history,

高等研究所的機器，正是擺在那邊的那台

and give some of these guys more credit than they've had.

真的位置應該在這裡。所以，我正在試圖修改歷史。

Such a computer would open up universes,

給這些傢伙更多褒獎。

which are, at the present, outside the range of any instruments.

這樣一台電腦開創了一個新的領域

So it opens up a whole new world, and these people saw it.

這是到目前為止其它任何一台工具所不能比的

The guy who was supposed to build this machine

它開啟了一個嶄新的世界，這樣一群人預見到了。

was the guy in the middle, Vladimir Zworykin, from RCA.

被認為是製造這台機器的人

RCA, in probably one of the lousiest business decisions

就站在中間，他名叫弗拉迪米爾 佐利金，來自美國廣播公司

of all time, decided not to go into computers.

美國廣播公司，當時可能做了有史以來最糟糕的決定

But the first meetings, November 1945, were at RCA's offices.

那就是放棄研發電腦。

RCA started this whole thing off, and said, you know,

在1945年11月，在美國廣播公司的辦公室召開了第一次會議

televisions are the future, not computers.

經過了一番研究，說

The essentials were all there --

電視才是未來發展的趨勢，不是電腦。

all the things that make these machines run.

所有的必要元件都在這裡

Von Neumann, and a logician, and a mathematician from the army

所有可以使這些機器運行的元件。

put this together. Then, they needed a place to build it.

馮諾曼，和一位邏輯學家以及一位軍人數學家

When RCA said no, that's when they decided to build it in Princeton,

把這些元件組裝在一起。接下來他們需要一個地方來建造

where Freeman works at the Institute.

美國廣告公司拒絕了以後，他們才決定把機器建在

That's where I grew up as a kid.

弗里曼工作的普林斯頓研究所。

That's me, that's my sister Esther, who's talked to you before,

我從小在那長大

so we both go back to the birth of this thing.

這是我和我姐姐Esther，她之前在這裡演講過

That's Freeman, a long time ago,

所以我們都追溯了這一機器的誕生

and that was me.

這是弗里曼很久以前的樣子

And this is Von Neumann and Morgenstern,

這是我

who wrote the "Theory of Games."

這是馮諾曼和Morgenstern

All these forces came together there, in Princeton.

他們是博弈理論的創始人

Oppenheimer, who had built the bomb.

各方的力量都匯集在普林斯頓

The machine was actually used mainly for doing bomb calculations.

奧本哈默，製造原子彈的人

And Julian Bigelow, who took

這台機器主要用來進行原子彈相關的運算

Zworkykin's place as the engineer, to actually figure out, using electronics,

比戈洛（John Bigelow）

how you would build this thing. The whole gang of people who came to work on this,

他是工程師，他用電子元件，

and women in front, who actually did most of the coding, were the first programmers.

找出了製造這一機器的真正方法。這一幫人，

These were the prototype geeks, the nerds.

包括那個站在前面的女士們，他們編寫了大部分的代碼。所有的這一幫人是歷史上第一批程式設計師。

They didn't fit in at the Institute.

他們也是那些網路怪人，技術狂人的老祖宗

This is a letter from the director, concerned about --

研究所不適合他們

"especially unfair on the matter of sugar."

這是一封來自主任的信，主題為

(Laughter)

“關於實驗室裏砂糖分配不平均的問題”

You can read the text.

（笑聲）

(Laughter)

你們可以自己讀讀原文

This is hackers getting in trouble for the first time.

（笑聲）

(Laughter).

這是黑客們第一次遇到麻煩

These were not theoretical physicists.

（笑聲）

They were real soldering-gun type guys, and they actually built this thing.

這些不是理論物理學家

And we take it for granted now, that each of these machines

他們是真正的實踐者，是他們親手製造了這一機器。

has billions of transistors, doing billions of cycles per second without failing.

現在我們想當然而地認為

They were using vacuum tubes, very narrow, sloppy techniques

這些含有幾十億個電晶體，每秒進行幾十億次計算的機器不會出現差錯。

to get actually binary behavior out of these radio vacuum tubes.

他們當時用真空管，非常不成熟的技術

They actually used 6J6, the common radio tube,

運用無線電真空管實現了二進制運算

because they found they were more reliable than the more expensive tubes.

他們用的是6J6，也就是通用電子管

And what they did at the Institute was publish every step of the way.

因為他們發現這比那些價錢更貴的電子管更可靠。

Reports were issued, so that this machine was cloned

他們把研究結果的每一步都巨細糜遺地發表

at 15 other places around the world.

隨著研究報告的發布，

And it really was. It was the original microprocessor.

使得世界其他15個地方也可以製造出相同的機器

All the computers now are copies of that machine.

這台機器真的是微處理器的鼻祖

The memory was in cathode ray tubes --

現在所有的電腦都是仿照這台機器。

a whole bunch of spots on the face of the tube --

存儲器用的是陰極射線管

very, very sensitive to electromagnetic disturbances.

陰極射線管表面的一簇點

So, there's 40 of these tubes,

對電磁干擾十分敏感

like a V-40 engine running the memory.

所以就有了40個這樣的陰極射線管

(Laughter)

就好像一個用V-40發動機來跑的存儲器

The input and the output was by teletype tape at first.

（笑聲）

This is a wire drive, using bicycle wheels.

起初的輸入和輸出是靠電傳打字帶

This is the archetype of the hard disk that's in your machine now.

使用腳踏車輪，有線驅動

Then they switched to a magnetic drum.

這就是我們今天電腦裡硬碟的原型。

This is modifying IBM equipment,

後來他們改用磁鼓

which is the origins of the whole data-processing industry, later at IBM.

這是一種改良的IBM的設備

And this is the beginning of computer graphics.

也是後來IBM整個數據處理行業的起源。

The "Graph'g-Beam Turn On." This next slide,

這也是電腦圖學的開端

that's the -- as far as I know -- the first digital bitmap display, 1954.

下一張幻燈片

So, Von Neumann was already off in a theoretical cloud,

這是我所知道的最早的數字位圖，誕生於1954年

doing abstract sorts of studies of how you could build

所以馮諾曼那時已經不再是純理論研究

reliable machines out of unreliable components.

而是進行一種抽象性的研究

Those guys drinking all the tea with sugar in it

希望利用不穩定的部件製造出可靠的機器。

were writing in their logbooks, trying to get this thing to work, with all

這些喝著摻了糖的茶的人

these 2,600 vacuum tubes that failed half the time.

正在他們的記錄本上記錄，試圖讓這一想法實現

And that's what I've been doing, this last six months, is going through the logs.

他們試驗的2600個真空管，有一半時間都是閒置的

"Running time: two minutes. Input, output: 90 minutes."

我過去6個月就一直在看這些記錄

This includes a large amount of human error.

“執行時間：2分鐘。輸入，輸出：90分鐘。”

So they are always trying to figure out, what's machine error? What's human error?

這包含了大量的人為錯誤

What's code, what's hardware?

所以他們一直試著辨別到底哪些是機器故障，哪些是人為錯誤

That's an engineer gazing at tube number 36,

是程式碼問題 還是硬體的問題

trying to figure out why the memory's not in focus.

這是一位工程師正盯著36號電子管

He had to focus the memory -- seems OK.

試圖找出內存位置不對的原因

So, he had to focus each tube just to get the memory up and running,

他不得不親自對位 —— 看上去還行

let alone having, you know, software problems.

所以他必須對位每一個電子管，僅僅為了使內存能恢復執行

"No use, went home." (Laughter)

更不用說遇到軟體問題時他會有多麼手忙腳亂了

"Impossible to follow the damn thing, where's a directory?"

“沒用，回家。”（笑聲）

So, already, they're complaining about the manuals:

“完全不可能搞定這該死的東西，電話薄在那？“

"before closing down in disgust ... "

他們那時已經在抱怨（沒人看得懂的）使用說明書了

"The General Arithmetic: Operating Logs."

”這（説明書）實在是讀不下去"

Burning lots of midnight oil.

“通用算法 —— 運行日誌”

"MANIAC," which became the acronym for the machine,

開了很多夜車

Mathematical and Numerical Integrator and Calculator, "lost its memory."

MANIAC，成了這台機器的縮寫

"MANIAC regained its memory, when the power went off." "Machine or human?"

數學和數值整合器與計算器，“內存記憶遺失。”

"Aha!" So, they figured out it's a code problem.

“MANIAC在斷電後重新找回內存記憶” “機器故障還是人為錯誤？”

"Found trouble in code, I hope."

“啊哈！” 結果是程式碼的問題

"Code error, machine not guilty."

“程式碼有問題，但願是如此。”

"Damn it, I can be just as stubborn as this thing."

“程式碼錯誤，機器是無辜的。”

(Laughter)

“該死，我竟變得和這機器一樣難纏”

"And the dawn came." So they ran all night.

（笑聲）

Twenty-four hours a day, this thing was running, mainly running bomb calculations.

“黎明來了。” 看來他們熬了一整夜。

"Everything up to this point is wasted time." "What's the use? Good night."

這台機器一天24小時不停的運轉，主要是進行核彈相關的運算

"Master control off. The hell with it. Way off." (Laughter)

“到目前為止所有的工作都是在浪費時間。” “這有什麼用？晚安。”

"Something's wrong with the air conditioner --

“主控關閉。搞什麼鬼。太離譜了。”

smell of burning V-belts in the air."

“空調出問題了——

"A short -- do not turn the machine on."

聞到空氣中皮帶燒焦的味道”

"IBM machine putting a tar-like substance on the cards. The tar is from the roof."

“不要開機”

So they really were working under tough conditions.

“IBM機器的卡片上有了像焦油一樣的油漬，從屋頂掉下來的。”

(Laughter)

看來他們的工作環境真的很艱苦

Here, "A mouse has climbed into the blower

（笑聲）

behind the regulator rack, set blower to vibrating. Result: no more mouse."

看這個，“一隻老鼠爬進了鼓風機

(Laughter)

使得鼓風機震動。結果：老鼠不見了。”

"Here lies mouse. Born: ?. Died: 4:50 a.m., May 1953."

（笑聲）

(Laughter)

“老鼠躺在這裡。出生年月：未知。死於：4:50am, 1953年5月。”

There's an inside joke someone has penciled in:

（笑聲）

"Here lies Marston Mouse."

有人在這寫了個內部人才能理解的玩笑：

If you're a mathematician, you get that,

“Marston老鼠在此安息。”

because Marston was a mathematician who

如果你是個數學家，你就會明白

objected to the computer being there.

因為Marston是一位

"Picked a lightning bug off the drum." "Running at two kilocycles."

反對電腦的數學家

That's two thousand cycles per second --

“把一只螢火蟲從磁鼓上拿開。” “以兩千赫茲的頻率運行。”

"yes, I'm chicken" -- so two kilocycles was slow speed.

那是一秒鐘兩千次的循環

The high speed was 16 kilocycles.

“是的，我很膽小" -- 所以兩千次是很慢的速度

I don't know if you remember a Mac that was 16 Megahertz,

1萬6千次每秒才是高速

that's slow speed.

我不知道你們是否還記得過去Mac的主頻是16兆赫茲

"I have now duplicated both results.

那是很慢的速度

How will I know which is right, assuming one result is correct?

”我現在有了兩種結果。

This now is the third different output.

假設其中一個結果是正確的，我怎麼才能知道哪一個是正確的呢？

I know when I'm licked."

現在有了第三種不同的結果

(Laughter)

我知道我失敗了“

"We've duplicated errors before."

（笑聲）

"Machine run, fine. Code isn't."

”我們之前犯過錯誤“

"Only happens when the machine is running."

”機器運行正常，程式碼有誤。“

And sometimes things are okay.

”只在機器運行時發生。“

"Machine a thing of beauty, and a joy forever." "Perfect running."

有時一切正常。

"Parting thought: when there's bigger and better errors, we'll have them."

“機器是件美好的事物，是永恆的快樂。” “完美運行。”

So, nobody was supposed to know they were actually designing bombs.

“臨別思考：當出現更大的錯誤時，我們會解決的。”

They're designing hydrogen bombs. But someone in the logbook,

所以沒有人知道他們在設計核彈。

late one night, finally drew a bomb.

他們在設計氫彈。但是有人在日誌本上，

So, that was the result. It was Mike,

有一天晚上最終畫了一個炸彈。

the first thermonuclear bomb, in 1952.

那就是成果。氫彈Mike

That was designed on that machine,

1952年，第一顆熱核彈

in the woods behind the Institute.

正是在那台電腦上被設計出來的。

So Von Neumann invited a whole gang of weirdos

在研究所後面的樹林中

from all over the world to work on all these problems.