Unless we do something to prevent it,

除非我們有預防的辦法，

over the next 40 years we're facing an epidemic

否則在未來的 40 年後我們將會面對

of neurologic diseases on a global scale.

神經性疾病全球化的漫延。

A cheery thought.

你們還真樂觀啊!

On this map, every country that's colored blue

在這個地圖上，每一個藍色的國家

has more than 20 percent of its population over the age of 65.

其 65 歲以上的國民超過全國人口數的 20% 。

This is the world we live in.

這就是我們居住的世界。

And this is the world your children will live in.

而這是你的下一代將會面臨的世界。

For 12,000 years, the distribution of ages in the human population

過去的一萬兩千年來，人類族群年齡的分佈

has looked like a pyramid, with the oldest on top.

看起來像個金字塔，最老的人在最上層。

It's already flattening out.

這個趨勢已經漸趨平緩了。

By 2050, it's going to be a column and will start to invert.

到了 2050 年它將會變成長柱狀， 然後開始反轉變成倒金字塔。

This is why it's happening.

原因是

The average lifespan's more than doubled since 1840,

從 1840 年到現在，平均壽命變成了原來的兩倍，

and it's increasing currently at the rate of about five hours every day.

而且它還在以大約每天五小時的速度持續增加中。

And this is why that's not entirely a good thing:

為什麼平均壽命增加不全然是好事呢？

because over the age of 65, your risk of getting Alzheimer's

因為一旦超過 65 歲，你罹患阿茲海默症

or Parkinson's disease will increase exponentially.

或帕金森氏症的機率將以指數增加。

By 2050, there'll be about 32 million people in the United States

到了 2050 年，美國約會有 3200 萬超過 80 歲的人，

over the age of 80, and unless we do something about it,

除非我們有因應措施，

half of them will have Alzheimer's disease

他們其中一半會罹患阿茲海默症

and three million more will have Parkinson's disease.

而罹患帕金森氏症的人會比 阿茲海默症患者人數多出三百萬。

Right now, those and other neurologic diseases --

現今，對於這些和其他神經性疾病 --

for which we have no cure or prevention --

我們既不能治癒也無法預防 --

cost about a third of a trillion dollars a year.

一年約消耗三千億美元的社會成本。

It will be well over a trillion dollars by 2050.

到了 2050 年這個數字將會超過一兆美元。

Alzheimer's disease starts when a protein

阿茲海默症是因為

that should be folded up properly

腦部內的蛋白質沒有正確摺疊

misfolds into a kind of demented origami.

形成錯誤的結構而導致癡呆。

So one approach we're taking is to try to design drugs

因此我們嘗試設計一種藥物

that function like molecular Scotch tape,

它的功用如同分子膠帶一般，

to hold the protein into its proper shape.

能夠使蛋白質維持正確的結構。

That would keep it from forming the tangles

這將會避免這種蛋白質彼此間糾結在一起

that seem to kill large sections of the brain when they do.

因為蛋白質糾結似乎會造成一大片腦細胞壞死。

Interestingly enough, other neurologic diseases

有趣的是，其他神經性疾病

which affect very different parts of the brain

儘管它們影響的腦部區域非常的不同

also show tangles of misfolded protein,

但是同樣造成錯誤摺疊的蛋白質互相糾結，

which suggests that the approach might be a general one,

因此這個藥物設計方法或許是一種通則，

and might be used to cure many neurologic diseases,

可以用來治療多種神經性疾病，

not just Alzheimer's disease.

而不是只針對阿茲海默症。

There's also a fascinating connection to cancer here,

神經性疾病與癌症間還有個有趣的關聯性

because people with neurologic diseases

因為患有神經性疾病的人

have a very low incidence of most cancers.

罹患癌症的機率非常的低。

And this is a connection that most people aren't pursuing right now,

雖然現在對它們之間關聯性的研究不多，

but which we're fascinated by.

但我們對它非常感興趣。

Most of the important and all of the creative work in this area

這個領域許多重要又有獨創性的研究

is being funded by private philanthropies.

都是私人慈善事業所資助的。

And there's tremendous scope for additional private help here,

但是我們還需要更多私人機構的贊助幫忙，

because the government has dropped the ball on much of this, I'm afraid.

因為遺憾的是，來自政府單位的支持非常有限。

In the meantime, while we're waiting for all these things to happen,

但在我們等待經費資助的同時，

here's what you can do for yourself.

這裡是一些你自己可以做到的事情。

If you want to lower your risk of Parkinson's disease,

如果你想要降低你罹患帕金森氏症的機率，

caffeine is protective to some extent; nobody knows why.

咖啡因有某種程度的保護作用; 原因還未知

Head injuries are bad for you. They lead to Parkinson's disease.

避免頭部創傷。它們會導致帕金森氏症。

And the Avian Flu is also not a good idea.

避免感染禽流感，我想原因不需要我說明。

As far as protecting yourself against Alzheimer's disease,

至於如何避免你罹患阿茲海默症？

well, it turns out that fish oil has the effect

這個嘛…魚油有預防的功效。

of reducing your risk for Alzheimer's disease.

可以降低阿茲海默症發生。

You should also keep your blood pressure down,

你同時應該保持正常的血壓，

because chronic high blood pressure

因為慢性高血壓

is the biggest single risk factor for Alzheimer's disease.

是罹患阿茲海默症最主要的一個因素。

It's also the biggest risk factor for glaucoma,

同時也是罹患青光眼的主因，

which is just Alzheimer's disease of the eye.

青光眼其實就是眼睛的阿茲海默症。

And of course, when it comes to cognitive effects,

當然，談到對認知能力的影響時，

"use it or lose it" applies,

「用進廢退」的觀念變得很重要，

so you want to stay mentally stimulated.

因此你希望保持思想活躍。

But hey, you're listening to me.

但是嘿…你不是正在聽我演講嗎？

So you've got that covered.

那麼這部分你就不用擔心了。

And one final thing. Wish people like me luck, okay?

最後，祝我們這群科學家研究順利吧?

Because the clock is ticking for all of us.

因為歲月可是不饒人的。

Thank you.

謝謝大家。