of our species' existence,

我很確定，在人類這種物種存活的

and even before,

數十萬年間，

our ancestors looked up at the night sky,

甚至在更早以前，

and wondered what stars are.

我們的祖先仰望夜空，

Wondering, therefore,

想知道星星到底是什麼。

how to explain what they saw

因此，也很想知道

in terms of things unseen.

如何以那些看不到的東西

Okay, so, most people

解釋他們所看到的一切

only wondered that occasionally, like today,

好吧，當時的大多數的人

in breaks from whatever

就像現在一樣，只是偶而會想知道

normally preoccupied them.

在閒暇時，那些

But what normally preoccupied them

使他們著迷的東西

also involved yearning to know.

不過那些他們專注的東西

They wished they knew

也跟求知的慾望有關。

how to prevent their food supply

他們盼望知道

from sometimes failing,

如何讓食物供給

and how they could rest when they were tired

不致偶有匱乏，

without risking starvation,

還有他們疲累時該如何歇息

be warmer, cooler, safer,

且不會挨餓，

in less pain.

住得更加溫暖，更加涼爽，更加安全

I bet those prehistoric cave artists

以及讓生活少點的痛苦。

would have loved to know

我敢說那些史前洞穴的畫家

how to draw better.

一定很想知道

In every aspect of their lives,

怎麼樣畫得更好。

they wished for progress, just as we do.

在生活上的各個方面，

But they failed, almost completely, to make any.

他們渴望進步，就跟我們一樣。

They didn't know how to.

不過，他們幾乎是一敗塗地，沒有獲得任何進展。

Discoveries like fire

他們不知道如何進步。

happened so rarely, that from an individual's point of view,

像火這類的發現

the world never improved.

極少發生，所以從人的觀點而言，

Nothing new was learned.

整個世界沒有進步過。

The first clue to the origin of starlight

也沒有學過什麼新事物。

happened as recently as 1899: radioactivity.

最早研究星光的起源

Within 40 years,

發生在約1899年：放射性。

physicists discovered the whole explanation,

在四十年之內，

expressed, as usual, in elegant symbols.

物理學家發現了全部的解釋，

But never mind the symbols.

如同往常，這些解釋以優雅的符號表現出來。

Think how many discoveries

不過別管這些符號。

they represent.

想想看這些符號

Nuclei and nuclear reactions, of course.

代表多少發現。

But isotopes, particles of electricity,

當然，有原子核反應。

antimatter,

同位素、正負電粒子

neutrinos,

反物質

the conversion of mass to energy -- that's E=mc^2 --

微中子，

gamma rays,

質能變換，就是E=mc平方

transmutation.

伽馬射線

That ancient dream that had always eluded the alchemists

核嬗變 （一種元素通過核反應轉化成另外一種元素）

was achieved through these same theories

這些連古代鍊金術士也無能為力的夢想

that explained starlight

被以上這些理論實現了

and other ancient mysteries,

這些方程式解釋了星光

and new, unexpected phenomena.

和其他的古代神話

That all that, discovered in 40 years,

和那些新的，預料不到的現象

had not been in the previous hundred thousand,

所有的這些都在這40年中發現

was not for lack of thinking

但卻都沒有在過去的千百年中發現

about stars, and all those other urgent problems they had.

這不是因為他們缺乏思考

They even arrived at answers,

關於星星，或者那些很緊迫的問題

such as myths,

他們其實是有一套答案的

that dominated their lives,

例如說用神話來解釋現象

yet bore almost no resemblance

這些主宰了他們的生活

to the truth.

雖然這些對於事實

The tragedy of that protracted stagnation

幾乎沒任何關聯性

isn't sufficiently recognized, I think.

這種知識停滯所帶來的悲劇

These were people with brains of

我認為並沒有被充分的意識到

essentially the same design

人類的大腦

that eventually did discover all those things.

本質上都是一樣的構造

But that ability to make progress

這樣的構造發現了這些現象

remained almost unused,

但是那種進步的能力

until the event that

並沒有充分地被發揮

revolutionized the human condition

直到有些事件

and changed the universe.

徹底地改變了人類的現況

Or so we should hope.

和改變了整個宇宙

Because that event was the

或者我們希望透過它大幅改變人類的生活

Scientific Revolution,

因為這個事件是

ever since which our knowledge

科學革命

of the physical world,

從我們有了

and of how to adapt it to our wishes,

對現實世界的知識以來

has been growing relentlessly.

怎麼樣利用科學技術來實現我們的願望

Now, what had changed?

這樣的發展就從來沒有停止過

What were people now doing for the first time

現在，什麽改變了？

that made that difference

人們現在要做什麽

between stagnation

才能區別開

and rapid, open-ended discovery?

對於知識追求的停滯

How to make that difference

和不斷地、開放地探索？

is surely the most important universal truth

如何區分兩者

that it is possible to know.

無疑地是重要且普遍的真理

Worryingly, there is no consensus about what it is.

這是非常好了解的

So, I'll tell you.

麻煩的是，這沒有一個公認的方法

But I'll have to backtrack a little first.

所以，我將告訴你

Before the Scientific Revolution,

但是在這之前我要回溯一點點時間

they believed that everything important, knowable,

到科學革命之前

was already known,

人們認為任何事情都是重要的，可以認知的

enshrined in ancient writings, institutions,

而且都已經被知道了

and in some genuinely useful rules of thumb --

這些蘊藏在古代著作中、習俗中

which were, however, entrenched as dogmas,

和一些十分有效的經驗法則中

along with many falsehoods.

那些被認為是不可憾動的教義與信條

So they believed that knowledge came from authorities

事實上伴隨著很多漏洞

that actually knew very little.

所以他們認為知識來源於權威

And therefore progress

但是其實權威知道的很少

depended on learning how to reject

所以知識進步為

the authority of learned men,

學習著去抵抗權威

priests, traditions and rulers.

包括學識淵博的人

Which is why the Scientific Revolution

神父，習俗傳統和統治者

had to have a wider context.

這就是爲什麽科學革命

The Enlightenment, a revolution in how

擁有更寬廣的背景：

people sought knowledge,

我們稱之的啓蒙運動，就是一場

trying not to rely on authority.

人們怎樣去獲取知識的革命

"Take no one's word for it."

他們試圖不依靠權威

But that can't be what made the difference.

"不要把一個人的話當做理所當然的"

Authorities had been rejected before, many times.

但是這些都不能徹底的改變

And that rarely, if ever,

以前權威也被挑戰過很多次

caused anything like the Scientific Revolution.

但是很少

At the time, what they thought

可以引起像科學革命這樣的事件

distinguished science

當時，他們認為

was a radical idea about things unseen,

現代科學這種

known as empiricism.

對無法觀察到的事物進行解釋是頗為激進的想法

All knowledge derives from the senses.

這些方法被稱為經驗主義

Well, we've seen that that can't be true.

所有的知道都來自感覺、感官

It did help by promoting

好了，我們現在知道那不是正確的

observation and experiment.

但這確實對理解有所幫助

But, from the outset, it was obvious

透過觀察和實驗

that there was something horribly wrong with it.

但是，一開始這就很明顯

Knowledge comes from the senses.

這種想法存在著錯誤

In what language? Certainly not the language of mathematics,

知識來自於感覺

in which, Galileo rightly said,

透過什麽語言？肯定不是數學語言

the book of nature is written.

伽利略提出正確的聲明

Look at the world. You don't see equations

說大自然的著作早已寫成

carved on to the mountainsides.

看看這個世界。你沒有看見任何數學方程式

If you did, it would be because people

刻在任何一座山上

had carved them.

如果你看見了，那只是因為人類

By the way, why don't we do that?

刻上去的

What's wrong with us?

順便說一句，爲什麽我們不那樣做呢?

(Laughter)

我們怎麼了?

Empiricism is inadequate

(笑)

because, well,

經驗主義是不夠的

scientific theories explain the seen in terms of the unseen.

因為

And the unseen, you have to admit,

科學理論是通過觀察不到的事物解釋觀察到的現象

doesn't come to us through the senses.

那些看不到的，你必須承認

We don't see those nuclear reactions in stars.

不是通過我們的感覺就能理解的

We don't see the origin of species.

我們看不到星星上的核子反應

We don't see the curvature of space-time,

我們看不到物種的起源

and other universes.

我們看不到時空彎曲

But we know about those things.

和其他宇宙

How?

但是我們知道這些

Well, the classic empiricist answer is induction.

透過什麽呢？

The unseen resembles the seen.

呃，傳統的經驗主義者的回答是"透過歸納法"

But it doesn't.

看不到的跟能看到的必定有相似之處

You know what the clinching evidence was

但是事實並不是如此

that space-time is curved?

你知道確鑿的證據表明

It was a photograph, not of space-time,

如果時空的彎曲

but of an eclipse, with a dot there rather than there.

的證據是一張照片，而不是時空本身

And the evidence for evolution?

有可能是一次日蝕，上面有小點而不是其他地方

Some rocks and some finches.

再比如說演化的證據

And parallel universes? Again: dots there,

是一些石頭和一些雀科鳥類

rather than there, on a screen.

平行的宇宙？同樣地：這有小點，

What we see, in all these cases,

而不是別的地方，顯示在營幕上

bears no resemblance to the reality

我們看到的，在這些例子中

that we conclude is responsible --

其實跟現實沒什麼太大的關係

only a long chain of theoretical reasoning

我們的結論是非常合理的

and interpretation connects them.

只有進行一連串理論上的推理和解釋

"Ah!" say creationists.

才能把事實和現象做連結

"So you admit it's all interpretation.

哈！創造論者(相信萬物由上帝一次造成的人)說

No one has ever seen evolution.

你承認這都是解釋了

We see rocks.

沒有人看見過演化

You have your interpretation. We have ours.

我們只看過石頭標本

Yours comes from guesswork,

你有你的解釋。我們有我們的

ours from the Bible."

你的從推測中來

But what creationist and empiricists both ignore

而我們的是從聖經來

is that, in that sense,

但是創造論者和經驗主義者都忽略了

no one has ever seen a bible either,

在某種意義上

that the eye only detects light, which we don't perceive.

沒有人看過聖經是如何被創造的

Brains only detect nerve impulses.

眼睛只感覺光亮，而我們並沒有察覺

And they don't perceive even those as what they really are,

大腦只接受神經脈衝

namely electrical crackles.

他們並沒有意識到組成脈衝的

So we perceive nothing as what it really is.

其實是電子訊號

Our connection to reality

所以我們常常不了解現實本身為何物

is never just perception.

感官知覺

It's always, as Karl Popper put it,

絕對不是我們用來與現實產生連繫的唯一方法

theory-laden.

如同卡爾‧波普爾所說的，

Scientific knowledge isn't derived from anything.

科學理論和人類所掌握到的一切知識，都只不過是推測和假想

It's like all knowledge. It's conjectural, guesswork,

科學知識無從根據

tested by observation,

就像其他知識一樣。是一種推斷，猜測，

not derived from it.

經過觀察的考驗，

So, were testable conjectures

而不是發源於知識本身。

the great innovation that opened the intellectual prison gates?

所以，這些禁得起測試的推論

No. Contrary to what's usually said,

是巨大的創新嗎？並且打開了智慧的大門嗎？

testability is common,

不。跟一般說法相反，

in myths and all sorts of other irrational modes of thinking.

可測試性是共通的特點

Any crank claiming the sun will go out next Tuesday

在神話中和各種其他非理性的想法中。

has got a testable prediction.

任何一個怪人都可以聲稱太陽會在下個星期二升起

Consider the ancient Greek myth

這就是一個可測試的預測。

explaining seasons.

想想古希臘的神話

Hades, God of the Underworld,

解釋季節。

kidnaps Persephone, the Goddess of Spring,

黑帝斯，冥界之神，

and negotiates a forced marriage contract,

綁架了普西芬妮，春天之神，

requiring her to return regularly, and lets her go.

逼迫她簽下婚姻契約

And each year,

並且要求她定時回去，然後才能放她走。

she is magically compelled to return.

每年

And her mother, Demeter,

她就神奇的歸去

Goddess of the Earth,

她的母親，迪米特，

is sad, and makes it cold and barren.

大地女神，

That myth is testable.

十分地傷心，所以便讓土地冰冷和荒蕪。

If winter is caused by Demeter's sadness,

這個神話可以驗證。

then it must happen everywhere on Earth simultaneously.

如果冬天是因為迪米特的悲傷，

So if the ancient Greeks had only known that Australia

那一定會同時發生在世界上每一個角落

is at its warmest when Demeter is at her saddest,

所以如果古希臘人知道澳洲

they'd have known that their theory is false.

在迪米特最傷心的時候是最熱的時段，

So what was wrong with that myth,

那他們就知道他們理論的錯誤了

and with all pre-scientific thinking,

那些神話

and what, then, made that momentous difference?

和那些科學的想法有什麽問題嗎？

I think there is one thing you have to care about.

到底是什麽能引起這麼大的不同呢？

And that implies

我認為你們只需要關心一件事情

testability, the scientific method,

那就是

the Enlightenment, and everything.

是否有驗證性，用科學的方法

And here is the crucial thing.

啓蒙運動，和之前說的一切

There is such a thing as a defect in a story.

這都是非常重要的

I don't just mean a logical defect. I mean a bad explanation.

常常在故事裡會有所缺陷

What does that mean? Well, explanation

我不是指邏輯缺陷。我說的是錯誤的解釋。

is an assertion about what's there, unseen,

這意味這什麽呢？好了，解釋

that accounts for what's seen.

是一種用看不見的事物

Because the explanatory role

來解釋看的見的東西

of Persephone's marriage contract

所以有關普西芬妮的

could be played equally well

婚約導致四季的變化

by infinitely many other

用其他各種理由

ad hoc entities.

來解釋的話

Why a marriage contract and not any other reason

應該也說的通

for regular annual action?

爲什麽是婚約而不是其他原因

Here is one. Persephone wasn't released.

導致每年四季規律的行為？

She escaped, and returns every spring

這裡有一個原因。普西芬妮並沒有被釋放。

to take revenge on Hades,

她只是逃跑，然後每年春天回來

with her Spring powers.

向哈德斯報仇

She cools his domain with Spring air,

用她的春天的能量。

venting heat up to the surface, creating summer.

她用春風給她的領地降溫

That accounts for the same phenomena as the original myth.

讓熱氣到達表面，形成夏天。

It's equally testable.

這裡用原始的神話解釋了每年同樣的現象。

Yet what it asserts about reality

我們可以測試其正確與否

is, in many ways, the opposite.

但是神話聲稱的內容

And that is possible because

在真實世界中很多方面都是相反的。

the details of the original myth

那是因為

are unrelated to seasons,

神話的細節

except via the myth itself.

跟季節無關

This easy variability

除了透過神話讓兩者產生聯繫以外

is the sign of a bad explanation,

這種明顯與現實有差異的

because, without a functional reason to prefer

就是一個不良的解釋

one of countless variants,

因為，沒有一個合理的推理過程

advocating one of them, in preference to the others,

在這些版本中，

is irrational.

支持某一個理由，只因為它比其他的好

So, for the essence of what

是不理性的。

makes the difference to enable progress,

因此，什麽舉動

seek good explanations,

能引起科學的大步進展

the ones that can't be easily varied,

就是尋找一個好的解釋，

while still explaining the phenomena.

這個解釋不是很容易就改變的，

Now, our current explanation of seasons

在解釋各種現象的同時。

is that the Earth's axis is tilted like that,

現在，我們當今對季節的解釋

so each hemisphere tilts toward the sun for half the year,

是地軸像這樣偏轉，

and away for the other half.

兩個半球輪流在半年中傾斜面向太陽

Better put that up.

並且輪流遠離太陽

(Laughter)

最好提一下。

That's a good explanation: hard to vary,

（笑聲）

because every detail plays a functional role.

這就是一個好的解釋：與現實相符，很難改變，

For instance, we know, independently of seasons,

因為每一個細節都扮演了有效的角色。

that surfaces tilted away

比如，我們知道，季節分明，

from radiant heat are heated less,

地球表面遠離

and that a spinning sphere, in space,

輻射熱導致熱量減少，

points in a constant direction.

地球在空間中旋轉，

And the tilt also explains

向著不變的方向。

the sun's angle of elevation at different times of year,

而傾斜也能解釋

and predicts that the seasons