and it's going to be a bit of a varied talk.

接下來的幾分鐘，我們來談談能源。

I'll try to spin a story about energy,

這是一個不太一樣的演說，

and oil's a convenient starting place.

我會告訴你們一些有關能源的事，

The talk will be broadly about energy,

就從石油開始好了。

but oil's a good place to start.

我的演說涵蓋了能源的多個面向，

And one of the reasons is this is remarkable stuff.

但從石油開始講起是個不錯的選擇。

You take about eight or so carbon atoms,

其中一個原因是，這是很了不起的東西。

about 20 hydrogen atoms,

你拿八個碳原子，

you put them together in exactly the right way

加上二十個氫原子，

and you get this marvelous liquid:

用正確的方式組合，

very energy-dense and very easy to refine

就可以得到這瓶神奇的液體。

into a number of very useful products and fuels.

很有用的能源，

It's great stuff.

很容易就可以從中提煉出許多有用的產品與燃料，

Now, as far as it goes,

真的很棒。

there's a lot of oil out there in the world.

現在，就我們所知，

Here's my little pocket map

世界上還有許多石油的存量。

of where it's all located.

這是我的石油小地圖，

A bigger one for you to look at.

上面標示了所有的石油蘊藏地點。

But this is it, this is the oil in the world.

你們可以看大一點的地圖，

Geologists have a pretty good idea of where the oil is.

就是這樣。這些是世界上所有的石油。

This is about 100 trillion gallons

地質學家們都知道石油蘊藏的地點，

of crude oil

世界上大約還有一兆加侖

still to be developed and produced in the world today.

的原油，

Now, that's just one story about oil,

等待我們去開採及提煉。

and we could end it there and say,

這只是關於石油的一部分事實，

"Well, oil's going to last forever

我們大可以先談到這裡，然後說

because, well, there's just a lot of it."

「石油的供給量不成問題嘛，

But there's actually more to the story than that.

還有這麼多...」

Oh, by the way, if you think you're very far from some of this oil,

但事實不只如此。

1000 meters below where you're all sitting

對了，如果你覺得你離油田很遠，

is one of the largest producing oil fields in the world.

各位現在座位下方一千公尺的地方，

Come talk to me about it, I'll fill in some of the details if you want.

就是世界上石油蘊藏量最多的地點之一。

So, that's one of the stories of oil; there's just a lot of it.

如果你想深入瞭解更多細節，可以私下再找我討論。

But what about oil? Where is it in the energy system?

這是關於石油的一部分事實，石油存量其實還很多。

Here's a little snapshot of 150 years of oil,

石油到底有什麼用？石油在能源體系裡扮演什麼角色？

and it's been a dominant part of our energy system

這是150年來石油在能源體系的比重，

for most of those 150 years.

在這150年來，

Now, here's another little secret I'm going to tell you about:

石油一直扮演很吃重的角色。

For the last 25 years,

現在，我要告訴各位一個小祕密，

oil has been playing less and less of a role

在過去的25年裡，

in global energy systems.

石油在全球能源體系裡所佔的比重

There was one kind of peak oil in 1985,

正在持續下降。

when oil represented 50 percent of global energy supply.

在1985年石油的比重達到高峰，

Now, it's about 35 percent.

那時的比重高達全球能源的百分之50。

It's been declining

現在大約只有百分之35，

and I believe it will continue to decline.

比以前下降了，

Gasoline consumption in the U.S. probably peaked in 2007

我相信還會持續下降。

and is declining.

在美國，汽油的比重在2007年達到高峰，

So oil is playing a less significant role

現在也開始下降。

every year.

石油的重要性

And so, 25 years ago,

正在逐年下降，

there was a peak oil;

在25年以前，

just like, in the 1920s,

石油的比重達到高峰，

there was a peak coal;

就像在1920年代，

and a hundred years before that,

煤炭的比重達到高峰，

there was a peak wood.

而在100年之前，

This is a very important picture of the evolution of energy systems.

木柴的比重也曾達到高峰。

And what's been taking up the slack in the last few decades?

這張圖清楚地刻劃出能源系統演進的過程。

Well, a lot of natural gas

在過去數十年裡，究竟是什麼取代了石油呢？

and a little bit of nuclear, for starters.

嗯，天然氣和一些核能，

And what goes on in the future?

這些能源剛開始起步。

Well, I think out ahead of us a few decades

未來會用什麼能源呢？

is peak gas,

嗯，我想在未來的數十年裡，

and beyond that,

天然氣的比重會達到高峰，

peak renewables.

再過來可能是些

Now, I'll tell you another little, very important

可重複使用的能源。

story about this picture.

就這張圖片，

Now, I'm not pretending that energy use in total

我想再告訴各位一件重要的事。

isn't increasing, it is --

我不是說全球的能源耗用量沒有增加，

that's another part of the story. Come talk to me about it,

事實上是在增加的。

we'll fill in some of the details --

那又是另外一回事，想知道的人可以來找我談，

but there's a very important message here:

我會再補充給你細節資料。

This is 200 years of history,

有一個很重要的訊息隱藏在裡面，

and for 200 years we've been systematically decarbonizing

這是200年來的能源史，

our energy system.

在這200年來，我們在能源體系上

Energy systems of the world

不斷地降低碳排放量。

becoming progressively -- year on year,

全世界的能源體系，

decade on decade, century on century --

一年又一年、

becoming less carbon intense.

數十年又數十年、幾百年又幾百年，

And that continues into the future

逐漸地在降低對碳的依賴程度。

with the renewables that we're developing today,

未來也會持續降低，

reaching maybe 30 percent of primary energy

因為我們現在所在開發的可重複使用的能源，

by mid century.

在本世紀中可能就會佔所有能源的

Now that might be the end of the story --

百分之30。

Okay, we just replace it all with conventional renewables --

你以為演說到這裡就可以結束了吧？

but I think, actually, there's more to the story than that.

我們把所有能源都用可重複使用的能源來代替不就得了？

And to tell the next part of the story --

我覺得事情沒那麼簡單。

and this is looking out say 2100 and beyond.

接下來的部分，

What is the future

就要往前看，看看2100年之後的情形。

of truly sustainable, carbon-free energy?

未來真正能持久

Well, we have to take a little excursion,

又沒有碳排放的能源到底是什麼？

and we'll start in central Texas.

嗯，我們得先安排一段小小的旅行。

Here's a piece of limestone.

我們先從德州中部開始，

I picked it up outside of Marble Falls, Texas.

這是一塊石灰石，

It's about 400 million years old.

我在德州的馬波佛市市郊撿到的，

And it's just limestone, nothing really special about it.

這大約有四億年的歷史了，

Now, here's a piece of chalk.

而這只是一塊石灰石，沒有什麼特別的。

I picked this up at MIT. It's a little younger.

這裡還有一截粉筆，

And it's different than this limestone, you can see that.

我在麻省理工學院拿來的，這個就年輕多了，

You wouldn't build a building out of this stuff,

也和石灰石不同，從外表就看得出來。

and you wouldn't try to give a lecture and write on the chalkboard with this.

你不會用這玩意兒來蓋房子，

Yeah, it's very different -- no, it's not different.

你也不會在課堂上用這個在黑板上書寫。

It's not different, it's the same stuff:

對，這二個是很不一樣。但不對哦，他們沒什麼不同，

calcium carbonate, calcium carbonate.

就是沒有不同，他們基本上一樣，

What's different is how the molecules are put together.

都是碳酸鈣，這也是碳酸鈣。

Now, if you think that's kind of neat,

唯一不同的，就只是分子排列的方式不同而已。

the story gets really neat right now.

如果你覺得這很神奇，

Off the coast of California comes this:

真正神奇的還在後頭。

It's an abalone shell.

在加州的海岸邊，有這個東西，

Now, millions of abalone every year

這是鮑魚的殼。

make this shell.

每年有數百萬的鮑魚

Oh, by the way, just in case you weren't already guessing,

在製造這些殼。

it's calcium carbonate.

對了，你猜的沒錯，

It's the same stuff as this

這也是碳酸鈣。

and the same stuff as this.

這和這個一樣，

But it's not the same stuff; it's different.

也和這個一樣；

It's thousands of times,

但又不完全相同，還是有點不同，

maybe 3,000 times tougher than this.

這個硬度大約是幾千倍，

And why? Because the lowly abalone

大約是這個的三千倍硬。

is able to lay down

為什麼？因為這些不起眼的鮑魚，

the calcium carbonate crystals in layers,

只能夠一層一層地

making this beautiful, iridescent

產生這些碳酸鈣結晶，

mother of pearl.

製作出這些美麗、

Very specialized material

璀燦的珍珠母。

that the abalone self-assembles,

這是很特殊的材料，

millions of abalone,

由鮑魚自行生成，

all the time, every day, every year.

許多鮑魚一直製造，

This is pretty incredible stuff.

每天每年製造。

All the same, what's different?

很了不起的東西。

How the molecules are put together.

這些都一樣，有什麼不同？

Now, what does this have to do with energy?

分子排列的方式不同。

Here's a piece of coal.

這和能源有什麼關係？

And I'll suggest that this coal

這是一塊煤炭，

is about as exciting

我猜這塊煤炭

as this chalk.

就和這支粉筆

Now, whether we're talking about fuels

一樣有趣。

or energy carriers,

當我們在談論燃料、

or perhaps novel materials for batteries

或是能源的媒介、

or fuel cells,

或是電池和燃料電池

nature hasn't ever built those perfect materials yet

的新型材料時，

because nature didn't need to.

大自然界裡不一定有這些材料，

Nature didn't need to because, unlike the abalone shell,

因為大自然不需要這些材料。

the survival of a species didn't depend

大自然之所以不需要這些材料，

on building those materials,

因為物種的生存

until maybe now when it might just matter.

並不需要倚賴這些材料，

So, when we think about the future of energy,

不像鮑魚剛好需要殼來保護自己。

imagine

所以，當我們在思考未來的能源時，

what would it be like

想像一下，

if instead of this,

未來的能源會像什麼？

we could build the energy equivalent of this

除了煤炭之外，

just by rearranging the molecules differently.

我們是否能製造出替代能源，

And so that is my story.

就只要把分子重新排列一下就好？

The oil will never run out.

這就是我要講的。

It's not because we have a lot of it.

石油永遠沒有用完的一天，

It's not because we're going to build a bajillion windmills.

並不是因為存量還很多，

It's because, well,

也不是因為我們會建造很多風車，

thousands of years ago,

那是因為

people invented ideas --

數千年以前，

they had ideas, innovations, technology --

人們就有了想法，

and the Stone Age ended,

想法激發發明，進而產生科技。

not because we ran out of stones.

石器時代會結束，

(Laughter)

並不是因為石頭被用光了。

It's ideas, it's innovation, it's technology

(笑聲)

that will end the age of oil, long before we run out of oil.

人們的想法、發明和科技，

Thank you very much.

會在我們把石油用光之前，替我們終結石油時代。

(Applause)

謝謝各位。