about ethnic conflict

今天向各位演講的內容是

and civil war.

「種族衝突

These are not normally the most cheerful of topics,

以及內戰」

nor do they generally generate

一般說來，這種主題不會振奮人心

the kind of good news

通常也不會傳達

that this conference is about.

令人欣慰的好消息

Yet, not only is there at least some good news

這就是今天研討會的議題

to be told about fewer such conflicts now

然而，我們至少還有一些好消息：

than two decades ago,

比起二十年前的情況

but what is perhaps more important

這類衝突已經日趨減少

is that we also have come

也許更重要的是

to a much better understanding of what can be done

現在我們已經更加瞭解

to further reduce the number

必須採取什麼方法

of ethnic conflicts and civil wars

才能減少

and the suffering that they inflict.

種族衝突與內戰

Three things stand out:

以及隨之而來的苦難

leadership, diplomacy

其中包括三個顯著的因素：

and institutional design.

領導能力、外交手腕

What I will focus on in my talk

以及憲政設計

is why they matter, how they matter,

今天的演講，我會著重在：

and what we can all do

這三者為什麼重要、有多重要

to make sure that they continue to matter

以及我們能夠作些什麼

in the right ways,

以確保這三個重要的因素

that is, how all of us can contribute

繼續發揮正面的影響力

to developing and honing the skills

也就是，我們全人類如何貢獻心力

of local and global leaders

以培養、琢磨

to make peace

當地與國際領袖

and to make it last.

締結休戰

But let's start at the beginning.

並長久維護和平的技巧

Civil wars have made news headlines

現在，我們先回到原點

for many decades now,

幾十年來

and ethnic conflicts in particular

內戰一直是新聞標題的常客

have been a near constant presence

特別是種族衝突

as a major international security threat.

已經是持續不斷的

For nearly two decades now,

重大國際安全威脅

the news has been bad

過去二十年來

and the images have been haunting.

壞消息不斷

In Georgia, after years of stalemate,

境況也令人憂心

we saw a full-scale resurgence of violence

在喬治亞，經過多年的對峙

in August, 2008.

於 2008 年八月

This quickly escalated into a five-day war

再度爆發全面的暴力衝突

between Russia and Georgia,

迅速惡化為俄羅斯與喬治亞之間的

leaving Georgia ever more divided.

五日戰爭

In Kenya, contested presidential elections in 2007 --

導致喬治亞更為分崩離析

we just heard about them --

在肯亞，2007 年備受爭議的總統選舉

quickly led to high levels

——我們才剛聼到這件事的演講——

of inter-ethnic violence

立刻轉變為嚴重的

and the killing and displacement

種族之間的暴力衝突

of thousands of people.

成千上萬的人

In Sri Lanka,

遭受殺害、流離失所

a decades-long civil war

在斯里蘭卡

between the Tamil minority

少數族群泰米爾人

and the Sinhala majority

與多數族群僧伽羅人之間

led to a bloody climax in 2009,

數十年漫長的內戰

after perhaps as many as 100,000

於 2009 年演變為恐怖的血腥衝突

people had been killed

在此之前，自 1983 年以來

since 1983.

已經有將近

In Kyrgyzstan, just over the last few weeks,

十萬人死於內戰

unprecedented levels of violence occurred

在吉爾吉斯，僅在前幾個星期之中

between ethnic Kyrgyz

吉爾吉斯族人

and ethnic Uzbeks.

與烏茲別克族人之間

Hundreds have been killed,

爆發了史無前例的暴力衝突

and more than 100,000 displaced,

數百人遭到殺害

including many ethnic Uzbeks

超過十萬人無家可歸

who fled to neighboring Uzbekistan.

其中包括許多逃到鄰國烏茲別克的

In the Middle East,

烏茲別克族人

conflict between Israelis and Palestinians

在中東地區

continues unabated,

以色列人與巴勒斯坦人之間的衝突

and it becomes ever more difficult

持續不斷

to see how, just how

而我們愈來愈難以預見

a possible, sustainable solution

該如何達成

can be achieved.

可以令兩方接受、長久維持

Darfur may have slipped from the news headlines,

的和平方案

but the killing and displacement there

達佛地區也許沒有出現在新聞標題上

continues as well,

但是當地的殺戮與人民的流離失所

and the sheer human misery that it creates

從未間斷

is very hard to fathom.

該地所製造的人間悲劇

And in Iraq, finally,

遠超過你我的想像

violence is on the rise again,

在伊拉克

and the country has yet to form a government

終於再度面臨暴力衝突

four months after

而伊拉克於四個月前

its last parliamentary elections.

進行的國會選舉

But hang on, this talk is to be about the good news.

直到目前仍無法籌組政府

So are these now the images of the past?

但是，我的演講帶來的是好消息

Well, notwithstanding the gloomy pictures

所以剛提到的都是過去的境況了嗎？

from the Middle East, Darfur,

雖然我們看到了悲慘灰暗的現狀

Iraq, elsewhere,

存在於中東、達佛

there is a longer-term trend

伊拉克、以及其他地區。

that does represent some good news.

以長期的趨勢來看

Over the past two decades, since the end of the Cold War,

我們確實有好消息

there has been an overall decline

自從冷戰結束以來的二十年間

in the number of civil wars.

內戰的數量

Since the high in the early 1990s,

呈現下降的趨勢

with about 50 such civil wars ongoing,

從 1990 年代早期的高峰期

we now have 30 percent fewer

大約有 50 場內戰

such conflicts today.

而至今天，這種衝突的數量

The number of people killed in civil wars

減少了百分之三十

also is much lower today

今日在內戰之中遭到殺害的人數

than it was a decade ago or two.

也遠低於

But this trend is less unambiguous.

十年前或二十年前的數字

The highest level of deaths on the battlefield

但是，這個趨勢並不明顯

was recorded between 1998 and 2001,

戰場上最多的死亡人數

with about 80,000 soldiers, policemen and rebels

紀錄於 1998 年到 2001 年之間

killed every year.

大約是每年八萬名軍人、警察、叛軍

The lowest number of combatant casualties

死於戰場

occurred in 2003,

最低的戰鬥人員死亡人數

with just 20,000 killed.

紀錄於 2003 年

Despite the up and down since then,

只有兩萬人死亡

the overall trend --

雖然數字上下起伏不定

and this is the important bit --

總體的趨勢

clearly points downward

——也是最重要的關鍵——

for the past two decades.

明顯下降

The news about civilian casualties

過去二十年來

is also less bad than it used to be.

有關平民死亡的新聞

From over 12,000 civilians

與往昔比較亦相對減輕

deliberately killed in civil wars

在 1997 年與 1998 年間

in 1997 and 1998,

超過一萬兩千位平民

a decade later,

遭到蓄意屠殺

this figure stands at 4,000.

十年之後

This is a decrease by two-thirds.

遭到殺害的平民降低為四千人

This decline would be even more obvious

數字減少了三分之二

if we factored in the genocide in Rwanda

如果我們列入 1994 年

in 1994.

盧安達的種族屠殺

But then 800,000 civilians were slaughtered

下降的趨勢就更為明顯

in a matter of just a few months.

那時在短短的幾個月之內

This certainly is an accomplishment

就有八十萬平民遭到屠殺

that must never be surpassed.

這是我們後人永遠不可超越的

What is also important is to note

殘暴罪行

that these figures only tell part of the story.

我們也應該同樣謹記

They exclude people

這些數字只代表著冰山的一角

that died as a consequence of civil war,

這些數字沒有列入

from hunger or disease, for example.

因為內戰造成的飢荒、疾病

And they also do not properly account

種種惡果之下死亡的人數

for civilian suffering more generally.

這些數字也無法真實地反映

Torture, rape and ethnic cleansing

遭受各種苦難的平民百姓

have become highly effective,

酷刑、強暴、種族淨化

if often non-lethal, weapons in civil war.

已經成為內戰之中極為有效

To put it differently,

令人生不如死的非致命性武器

for the civilians that suffer the consequences

換句話說

of ethnic conflict and civil war,

對於遭受種族衝突、內戰苦果的

there is no good war

平民百姓來說

and there is no bad peace.

戰爭永遠是邪惡的

Thus, even though every civilian killed,

和平永遠是良善

maimed, raped, or tortured is one too many,

任何一位平民遭到殺害、傷殘、強暴、酷刑

the fact that the number

都不能輕視

of civilian casualties

然而平民死亡的數字

is clearly lower today

比起十年前

than it was a decade ago,

已經明顯降低

is good news.

這項事實

So, we have fewer conflicts today

確實是好消息

in which fewer people get killed.

今日的衝突數量減少

And the big question, of course,

遭受殺害的人數下降

is why?

我們當然要問一個核心問題：

In some cases,

「為什麼減少？」

there is a military victory of one side.

某些案例之中

This is a solution of sorts,

是一方獲得了軍事勝利

but rarely is it one

這是一種解決方法

that comes without human costs

但是這種解決方法

or humanitarian consequences.

很少是在沒有人員傷亡

The defeat of the Tamil Tigers in Sri Lanka

或是沒有人道代價之下達成的

is perhaps the most recent example of this,

斯里蘭卡的塔米爾之虎的戰敗

but we have seen similar

我想是最近的一個血腥例子

so-called military solutions

但是我們也在巴爾幹半島、南高加索

in the Balkans, in the South Caucasus

以及非洲的大部分區域

and across most of Africa.

見過類似的

At times, they are complimented

所謂的血腥「軍事手段」

by negotiated settlements,

在其他的情況之中

or at least cease-fire agreements,

衝突者因為談判解決而接受讚揚

and peacekeepers are deployed.

或是至少達成停火協議

But hardly ever do they represent

接受和平部隊派駐

a resounding success --

但是這些情況並不表示

Bosnia and Herzegovina

成功獲得的和平

perhaps more so than Georgia.

波士尼亞與黑塞哥維那

But for many parts of Africa,

與喬治亞相比，更接近此種狀況

a colleague of mine once put it this way,

但對於非洲的多數區域

"The cease-fire on Tuesday night

我的同事曾經如此形容：

was reached just in time

「星期二晚上的停火協議

for the genocide to start on Wednesday morning."

及時阻止了

But let's look at the good news again.

星期三早上正要開始的種族屠殺」

If there's no solution on the battlefield,

我們回頭再看看好的消息

three factors can account

如果戰場之上無法獲得解決方案

for the prevention of ethnic conflict and civil war,

有三個因素

or for sustainable peace afterwards:

可以阻止種族衝突與內戰

leadership, diplomacy

或取得日後足以令人接受的和平

and institutional design.

領導能力、外交手腕

Take the example of Northern Ireland.

以及憲政設計

Despite centuries of animosity,

以北愛爾蘭為例

decades of violence

即使有著橫跨幾個世紀的仇恨

and thousands of people killed,

數十年的暴力衝突

1998 saw the conclusion

數千人遭受殺害

of an historic agreement.

仍於 1998 年達成了

Its initial version was skillfully mediated

歷史性的協議

by Senator George Mitchell.

喬治．米切爾參議員十分有技巧地中介了

Crucially, for the long-term success

雙方最初的協議版本

of the peace process in Northern Ireland,

讓北愛爾蘭的和平進程

he imposed very clear conditions

能夠長久維持的關鍵

for the participation and negotiations.

是他為了雙方參與和談判

Central among them,

加上了十分明確的條件

a commitment

在這些條件之中

to exclusively peaceful means.

最重要的是只能使用

Subsequent revisions of the agreement

和平手段的承諾

were facilitated by the British and Irish governments,

隨後的修訂協議

who never wavered in their determination

因為英國與愛爾蘭政府

to bring peace and stability to Northern Ireland.

從未動搖的和平決心

The core institutions

迅速帶來了北愛爾蘭的和平與穩定

that were put in place in 1998

於 1998 年起草的

and their modifications

核心憲法

in 2006 and 2008

以及 2006 與 2008 年

were highly innovative

對憲法的修訂

and allowed all conflict parties

具有十足創新的精神

to see their core concerns and demands addressed.

並讓所有互相衝突的黨派

The agreement combines a power-sharing arrangement

見到他們所關注的核心問題、需求獲得處理

in Northern Ireland

此份協議結合了北愛爾蘭

with cross-border institutions

分享權力的安排

that link Belfast and Dublin

與超越國境的憲法

and thus recognizes

連接了貝爾法斯特與都柏林

the so-called Irish dimension of the conflict.

以此承認了

And significantly,

所謂的愛爾蘭地區的衝突

there's also a clear focus

顯而易見

on both the rights of individuals

這份憲法同時明確地保障了

and the rights of communities.

個人的權利

The provisions in the agreement may be complex,

與當地社群的權利

but so is the underlying conflict.

也許這份協議的條款非常複雜

Perhaps most importantly,

但是在它背後的衝突也是同樣複雜

local leaders repeatedly rose to the challenge of compromise,

最重要的是

not always fast

當地領袖不斷地回應對於妥協讓步的反對意見

and not always enthusiastically,

不見得每次都迅速反應

but rise in the end they did.

也不見得每次都充滿熱情

Who ever could have imagined

但是最終證明他們締造了和平

Ian Paisley and Martin McGuinness

又有誰想像得到

jointly governing Northern Ireland

依安．佩斯利與馬丁．麥吉尼斯

as First and Deputy First Minister?

以首相與副首相的身份

But then, is Northern Ireland a unique example,

攜手共同領導北愛爾蘭政府

or does this kind of explanation

然而，北愛爾蘭究竟是個特例？

only hold more generally

還是這種解釋

in democratic and developed countries?

一般只能套用在

By no means.

民主與已發展國家上？

The ending of Liberia's long-lasting civil war

絕非如此

in 2003

2003 年所結束

illustrates the importance

利比亞漫長的內戰

of leadership, diplomacy

描繪了

and institutional design

領導能力、外交手腕

as much as the successful prevention

以及憲法設計的重要性

of a full-scale civil war

這三個因素也成功阻止了

in Macedonia in 2001,

2001 年馬其頓

or the successful ending

即將爆發的全面內戰

of the conflict in Aceh in Indonesia in 2005.

以及成功結束了

In all three cases,

2005 年發生於印尼亞齊地區的衝突

local leaders were willing and able

在這三個案例之中

to make peace,

當地領袖皆願意、亦有能力

the international community stood ready

締造和平

to help them negotiate and implement an agreement,

國際社會也準備好

and the institutions have lived up

協助他們談判與制定協議

to the promise that they held

憲法制度則實踐了

on the day they were agreed.

自從點頭同意那天開始

Focusing on leadership, diplomacy

各方黨派所許下的承諾

and institutional design

注重領導能力、外交手腕

also helps explain failures to achieve peace,

與憲法設計

or to make it last.

也解釋了無法得到和平或是

The hopes that were vested in the Oslo Accords

和平無法長久維持的原因

did not lead to an end

人們對於奧斯陸協定所賦予的希望

of the Israeli/Palestinian conflict.

並沒有終結

Not all the issues that needed to be resolved

以色列人與巴勒斯坦人的衝突

were actually covered in the agreements.

雙方需要解決的問題

Rather, local leaders committed

並沒有全部達成協議

to revisiting them later on.

結果，當地領袖承諾

Yet instead of grasping this opportunity,

稍後重審協議

local and international leaders

他們並沒有抓住和平的機會

soon disengaged

當地與國際領袖

and became distracted

不久之後即分崩離析

by the second Intifada, the events of 9/11

並且因為隨後的

and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.

第二次巴勒斯坦大起義、9/11 事件

The comprehensive peace agreement for Sudan

阿富汗與伊拉克的戰爭而分心

signed in 2005

蘇丹於 2005 年所簽署