of trying to explain to people

由於我經常

how wonderful the new technologies

向人們解釋

that are coming along are going to be,

即將到來的新科技

and I thought that, since I was among friends here,

將會多麼的美妙

I would tell you what I really think

我想既然我跟各位朋友們一起在這

and try to look back and try to understand

就讓我來說說我真正的想法

what is really going on here

並試著回顧和理解

with these amazing jumps in technology

這到底是如何發生的

that seem so fast that we can barely keep on top of it.

有了這些科技上的驚人進步。

So I'm going to start out

科技的進步似乎快到我們根本無法趕上它的腳步。

by showing just one very boring technology slide.

讓我先從這開始

And then, so if you can just turn on the slide that's on.

一頁很無趣的科技幻燈片。

This is just a random slide

然後現在可以放幻燈片了。（對工作人員說）

that I picked out of my file.

這只是我從我的文件中

What I want to show you is not so much the details of the slide,

隨機挑選出的一張。

but the general form of it.

我想要你們看的並不是它的細節，

This happens to be a slide of some analysis that we were doing

而是它的總體形式。

about the power of RISC microprocessors

這個是我們做的

versus the power of local area networks.

關於RISC微處理器功率

And the interesting thing about it

與本地網路功率分析的幻燈片。

is that this slide,

有趣的是

like so many technology slides that we're used to,

這頁幻燈片

is a sort of a straight line

就像很多我們所熟悉的幻燈片一樣，

on a semi-log curve.

是半對數曲線圖

In other words, every step here

上的一條直線。

represents an order of magnitude

也就是這裡的每一層，

in performance scale.

代表了性能程度

And this is a new thing

大小的一級。

that we talk about technology

在半對數曲線圖上

on semi-log curves.

討論科技，

Something really weird is going on here.

這很新鮮。

And that's basically what I'm going to be talking about.

這其中有點奇特。

So, if you could bring up the lights.

這基本上是我接下來要說的。

If you could bring up the lights higher,

（對工作人員）麻煩開一下燈。

because I'm just going to use a piece of paper here.

請把燈開亮點，

Now why do we draw technology curves

因為我要用張紙。

in semi-log curves?

為什麼我們要用對數曲線

Well the answer is, if I drew it on a normal curve

描繪科技曲線呢？

where, let's say, this is years,

嗯，答案是，如果我用普通曲線畫，

this is time of some sort,

我們說，這是年份，

and this is whatever measure of the technology

這是某個時間，

that I'm trying to graph,

這是我準備畫的

the graphs look sort of silly.

科技的某種測量值，

They sort of go like this.

這圖看起來有點傻。

And they don't tell us much.

就有點像是這樣。

Now if I graph, for instance,

而且並沒有提供什麼資訊。

some other technology, say transportation technology,

現在，如果我畫，比如說，

on a semi-log curve,

另一種技術，像是交通運輸，

it would look very stupid, it would look like a flat line.

在半對數曲線上，

But when something like this happens,

它看起來很蠢，會像條很平的線。

things are qualitatively changing.

但是如果出現像這種

So if transportation technology

質變的情況。

was moving along as fast as microprocessor technology,

如果交通運輸技術

then the day after tomorrow,

進步地像微處理器業一樣快的話，

I would be able to get in a taxi cab

那，後天

and be in Tokyo in 30 seconds.

我就能搭量計程車

It's not moving like that.

然後在30秒內到東京。

And there's nothing precedented

但它並沒有進步得那麼快。

in the history of technology development

在科技發展歷史中

of this kind of self-feeding growth

也沒有任何

where you go by orders of magnitude every few years.

這種自給自足，

Now the question that I'd like to ask is,

每幾年程度翻倍增長的先例。

if you look at these exponential curves,

現在我想要問的是，

they don't go on forever.

如果你觀察這些指數曲線，

Things just can't possibly keep changing

他們並非永遠的持續下去。

as fast as they are.

事物不可能一直

One of two things is going to happen.

改變得那麼快。

Either it's going to turn into a sort of classical S-curve like this,

兩件事會發生，

until something totally different comes along,

要麼它會變成像這樣典型的S曲線

or maybe it's going to do this.

直到完全不同的情況出現。

That's about all it can do.

或是會變成這樣。

Now I'm an optimist,

這就是所有可能。

so I sort of think it's probably going to do something like that.

現在我是個樂觀主義者，

If so, that means that what we're in the middle of right now

所以我覺得它很有可能就會變成這樣。

is a transition.

如果是這樣，意味著我們目前所在的

We're sort of on this line

是過渡階段。

in a transition from the way the world used to be

我們似乎在這條線上，

to some new way that the world is.

在世界從過去

And so what I'm trying to ask, what I've been asking myself,

到將來的轉變中。

is what's this new way that the world is?

所有我要問的，我一直在問自己的，

What's that new state that the world is heading toward?

就是這世界未來道路在哪？

Because the transition seems very, very confusing

它趨向的新時代是什麼樣的？

when we're right in the middle of it.

由於這個變化似乎非常，非常迷惑人，

Now when I was a kid growing up,

當我們正處在其中時。

the future was kind of the year 2000,

我小時候，長大過程中

and people used to talk about what would happen in the year 2000.

未來就像是2000年，

Now here's a conference

人們都在討論2000年將會發生什麼。

in which people talk about the future,

現在這個會議上，

and you notice that the future is still at about the year 2000.

大家在談論未來，

It's about as far as we go out.

而且你能發現這未來指的還是那個"2000年"。

So in other words, the future has kind of been shrinking

這就是我們能達到的程度。

one year per year

換句話說，未來正在縮水，

for my whole lifetime.

一生中

Now I think that the reason

每年縮短一年。

is because we all feel

我想原因是

that something's happening there.

我們都感覺到

That transition is happening. We can all sense it.

正在發生些什麼。

And we know that it just doesn't make too much sense

變化正在發生。我們都能查覺到。

to think out 30, 50 years

我們知道去考慮那未來的三,五十年

because everything's going to be so different

已經沒什麼意義了，

that a simple extrapolation of what we're doing

因為每件事都將如此不同

just doesn't make any sense at all.

以至於推測將來

So what I would like to talk about

不再有意義。

is what that could be,

所以我要聊聊

what that transition could be that we're going through.

那會是怎樣，

Now in order to do that

我們正在經歷的轉變會是怎樣。

I'm going to have to talk about a bunch of stuff

為達到這個目的，

that really has nothing to do

我得介紹一堆東西

with technology and computers.

它們與

Because I think the only way to understand this

科技和電腦完全無關。

is to really step back

因為我決定理解這個的唯一方法

and take a long time scale look at things.

就是回顧過去

So the time scale that I would like to look at this on

拉長時間軸去看。

is the time scale of life on Earth.

而我所要看的時間軸

So I think this picture makes sense

是以地球上生命的時間尺來看。

if you look at it a few billion years at a time.

我想這幅圖合理了

So if you go back

如果你一次從幾十億年來看。

about two and a half billion years,

如果回溯/所以如果你回溯個

the Earth was this big, sterile hunk of rock

大概25億年，

with a lot of chemicals floating around on it.

地球這麼大，貧瘠的大塊石頭

And if you look at the way

上面浮著些化學物質。

that the chemicals got organized,

要是觀察

we begin to get a pretty good idea of how they do it.

這些化學物質怎樣組合的，

And I think that there's theories that are beginning to understand

我們開始弄明白它們怎麼形成的。

about how it started with RNA,

我想有些理論是從理解

but I'm going to tell a sort of simple story of it,

生命怎樣從核糖核酸演變開始，

which is that, at that time,

但是我想講一個生命簡單的故事，

there were little drops of oil floating around

就是，在那個時候，

with all kinds of different recipes of chemicals in them.

有一滴滴的油四處浮動，

And some of those drops of oil

裡面有各種不同化學成分組合。

had a particular combination of chemicals in them

有些油滴

which caused them to incorporate chemicals from the outside

裡面含有特殊的化學構成

and grow the drops of oil.

這導致它們可以從外界聚集化學物質

And those that were like that

並慢慢變大。

started to split and divide.

像這樣的油滴

And those were the most primitive forms of cells in a sense,

又開始分化，分離。

those little drops of oil.

最原始的那些在某種程度上形成了細胞，

But now those drops of oil weren't really alive, as we say it now,

這些小小的油滴。

because every one of them

但目前為止這些油滴不是真的活的，在我們現在看來，

was a little random recipe of chemicals.

因為每一個

And every time it divided,

都是化學物質的隨機合成。

they got sort of unequal division

每分裂一次，

of the chemicals within them.

都不是平均分佈

And so every drop was a little bit different.

內部的化學物。

In fact, the drops that were different in a way

所以每個油滴都有點不同。

that caused them to be better

實際上，油滴不同的方式

at incorporating chemicals around them,

是讓它們能更好地

grew more and incorporated more chemicals and divided more.

集成周圍的化合物，

So those tended to live longer,

長的更大，吸收更多，分裂更多。

get expressed more.

所以它們會活的更長，

Now that's sort of just a very simple

表現的更多。

chemical form of life,

這就有點像個很簡單的

but when things got interesting

生命的化學形式，

was when these drops

但過程變得有趣

learned a trick about abstraction.

是當這些油滴

Somehow by ways that we don't quite understand,

學會了一個提取資訊的技巧時。

these little drops learned to write down information.

不知怎麼用我們不能完全理解的方式，

They learned to record the information

這些小油滴學會了記錄資訊。

that was the recipe of the cell

它們學會把

onto a particular kind of chemical

細胞形成的秘訣

called DNA.

記錄到一種特殊物質上，

So in other words, they worked out,

叫做去氧核糖核酸。

in this mindless sort of evolutionary way,

也就是說，它們想出了，

a form of writing that let them write down what they were,

以這種隨性的進化方式，

so that that way of writing it down could get copied.

可以寫下它們是什麼的記錄方式，

The amazing thing is that that way of writing

以便這種記錄方式能被複製。

seems to have stayed steady

驚奇的是這種記錄方式

since it evolved two and a half billion years ago.

似乎可以保持穩定

In fact the recipe for us, our genes,

由於它25億年前演化出來的。

is exactly that same code and that same way of writing.

實際上我們，我們的基因的組成

In fact, every living creature is written

就是完全一樣的代碼，一樣的記錄方式。

in exactly the same set of letters and the same code.

事實上，任何生物都是

In fact, one of the things that I did

用完全一樣的字母和代碼記錄下來的。

just for amusement purposes

實際上，我所做的

is we can now write things in this code.

僅是為了娛樂效果的一件事

And I've got here a little 100 micrograms of white powder,

就是我們能用這個代碼記錄事件。

which I try not to let the security people see at airports.

我這有100微克的白粉，

(Laughter)

我盡力不讓機場安檢人員發現它們。

But this has in it --

（笑聲）

what I did is I took this code --

不過這裡面有代碼

the code has standard letters that we use for symbolizing it --

我所做的是我拿著這代碼

and I wrote my business card onto a piece of DNA

它裡面有我們用來標記它的標準字母，

and amplified it 10 to the 22 times.

然後我把我的名片寫到一條去氧核糖核酸上

So if anyone would like a hundred million copies of my business card,

再放大10到22倍。

I have plenty for everyone in the room,

所以如果有人需要數百萬我的名片，

and, in fact, everyone in the world,

我有足夠多分給在座每個人，

and it's right here.

甚至是全世界每個人，

(Laughter)

就在這。

If I had really been a egotist,

（笑聲）

I would have put it into a virus and released it in the room.

要是我是個自大的人，

(Laughter)

我就會把它放大病毒裡散步到屋子中。

So what was the next step?

（笑聲）

Writing down the DNA was an interesting step.

所以下一步是什麼？

And that caused these cells --

記錄去氧核糖核酸是有趣的一步。

that kept them happy for another billion years.

它導致了細胞的形成——

But then there was another really interesting step

讓它們又高興了幾十億年。

where things became completely different,

不過還有個很有趣的環節

which is these cells started exchanging and communicating information,

事情開始變得完全不同，

so that they began to get communities of cells.

那就是這些細胞開始交換和交流資訊，

I don't know if you know this,

從而形成細胞團體。

but bacteria can actually exchange DNA.

我不知道你們是否知道這個，

Now that's why, for instance,

細菌實際上就可以交換去氧核糖核酸。

antibiotic resistance has evolved.

這就是為什麼，比如，

Some bacteria figured out how to stay away from penicillin,

演變出抗菌免疫。

and it went around sort of creating its little DNA information

有些細菌知道怎麼遠離青黴素，

with other bacteria,

然後它創造它這點去氧核糖核酸資訊，

and now we have a lot of bacteria that are resistant to penicillin,

並在別的細菌中到處遊走，

because bacteria communicate.

現在我們有很多對青黴素免疫的細菌了，

Now what this communication allowed

因為細菌會交流資訊。

was communities to form

這樣，這些交流致使

that, in some sense, were in the same boat together;

群落的形成，

they were synergistic.

在某種意義上，它們在同一條船上了；

So they survived

它們是協作的。

or they failed together,

因此它們一起倖存下來

which means that if a community was very successful,

或者一起死去，

all the individuals in that community

也就是說如果一個群落成功了，

were repeated more

所有群落裡的個體

and they were favored by evolution.

都能複製更多，

Now the transition point happened

在進化更有利。

when these communities got so close

於是，轉捩點到了，

that, in fact, they got together

當這些族群很親近時，

and decided to write down the whole recipe for the community

事實上，它們聚集到一起

together on one string of DNA.

並決定一起在一條去氧核糖核酸上

And so the next stage that's interesting in life

寫下整個族群的成分譜。

took about another billion years.

生命中下一個有趣的階段

And at that stage,

又要幾十億年。

we have multi-cellular communities,

在這個時期，

communities of lots of different types of cells,

有多細胞族群，

working together as a single organism.

就是有很多種不同細胞的群落，

And in fact, we're such a multi-cellular community.

作為有機體一起合作。

We have lots of cells

實際上，我們就是這樣的多細胞族群。

that are not out for themselves anymore.

我們有很多細胞，

Your skin cell is really useless

它們不再是是只為自己存活。

without a heart cell, muscle cell,

皮膚細胞根本沒用，

a brain cell and so on.

要是沒有心臟細胞，肌肉細胞，

So these communities began to evolve

腦細胞等等。

so that the interesting level on which evolution was taking place

所以這些族群開始進化

was no longer a cell,

這樣發生有趣的進化的

but a community which we call an organism.

不再僅僅是單一細胞。

Now the next step that happened

而是我們稱為機體的族群。

is within these communities.

接下來發生

These communities of cells,

就是在這些族群中。

again, began to abstract information.

這些細胞群落，

And they began building very special structures

再次，開始提取資訊。