about a tiny, little idea.

我將要談論

And this is about shifting baseline.

一個極細微的想法

And because the idea can be explained in one minute,

也就是關於海洋基準線的改變

I will tell you three stories before

因為這個想法可在一分鐘就講完

to fill in the time.

所以我會先講三個故事

And the first story

來拖延時間

is about Charles Darwin, one of my heroes.

第一個故事

And he was here, as you well know, in '35.

與我心目中的英雄達爾文有關

And you'd think he was chasing finches,

如你們所知，1835年他在加拉帕戈斯群島進行研究

but he wasn't.

你們以為他在追蹤雀類

He was actually collecting fish.

但事實並非如此

And he described one of them

其實他是在收集魚類

as very "common."

有一個他紀錄為

This was the sailfin grouper.

「常見」的物種

A big fishery was run on it

帆鰭石斑（sailfin grouper）

until the '80s.

這種魚一直都是漁獲量大宗

Now the fish is on the IUCN Red List.

至少在 1980 年代以前

Now this story,

現在，這種魚已被列在世界自然保護聯盟的瀕危物種紅色名單

we have heard it lots of times

這個故事

on Galapagos and other places,

我們已經在加拉帕戈斯群島和其他地方

so there is nothing particular about it.

聽過很多次

But the point is, we still come to Galapagos.

所以沒什麼特別的

We still think it is pristine.

但重點是，我們仍前往加拉帕戈斯群島

The brochures still say

我們仍然認為它是原始的

it is untouched.

旅遊折頁也說

So what happens here?

這裡的生態未曾改變

The second story, also to illustrate another concept,

所以到底發生什麼事了？

is called shifting waistline.

第二個故事，也可以用來說明另一個概念

(Laughter)

叫做腰圍變化

Because I was there in '71,

（大笑）

studying a lagoon in West Africa.

我在 1971 年前往西非

I was there because I grew up in Europe

研究一個潟湖

and I wanted later to work in Africa.

我會到那裡去是因為我在歐洲長大

And I thought I could blend in.

希望之後能到非洲工作

And I got a big sunburn,

我想我可以融入那個地方

and I was convinced that I was really not from there.

但我遭受嚴重的曬傷

This was my first sunburn.

才明白原來自己並非來自那裡

And the lagoon

這是我第一次被曬傷

was surrounded by palm trees,

至於那個潟湖

as you can see, and a few mangrove.

四周被棕櫚樹圍繞

And it had tilapia

就像你們看到的，還有一些紅樹林

about 20 centimeters,

潟湖裡有吳郭魚（非洲鯽魚）

a species of tilapia called blackchin tilapia.

體長大約二十公分

And the fisheries for this tilapia

其中一種稱為黑頰非鯽

sustained lots of fish and they had a good time

這種非洲鯽魚漁業

and they earned more than average

有段時期能維持大量捕撈，人們日子過的不錯

in Ghana.

他們收入高於

When I went there 27 years later,

迦納平均所得

the fish had shrunk to half of their size.

27 年後，我重訪當地

They were maturing at five centimeters.

卻發現這種魚的體型縮減了一半

They had been pushed genetically.

成魚的長度只有五公分

There were still fishes.

牠們已受基因演化的推動而改變

They were still kind of happy.

潟湖中仍有魚類

And the fish also were happy to be there.

人們仍快樂地捕魚

So nothing has changed,

魚也快樂地生活在那裡

but everything has changed.

什麼也沒變

My third little story

但其實一切都不同了

is that I was an accomplice

第三個小故事

in the introduction of trawling

是關於我如何變成

in Southeast Asia.

將拖網引進

In the '70s -- well, beginning in the '60s --

東南亞的共犯

Europe did lots of development projects.

在 70 年代，不，60 年代開始

Fish development

歐洲進行許多開發計畫

meant imposing on countries

例如漁業開發

that had already 100,000 fishers

其實就是對於

to impose on them industrial fishing.

已有十萬漁民的國家施壓

And this boat, quite ugly,

強迫他們進行工業化的捕漁方式

is called the Mutiara 4.

這艘醜醜的船

And I went sailing on it,

名為「慕蒂亞拉4號」

and we did surveys

我搭乘這艘船出海

throughout the southern South China sea

進行調查

and especially the Java Sea.

範圍涵蓋南中國海的南部

And what we caught,

特別是爪哇海

we didn't have words for it.

我們對於當時所捕獲到的

What we caught, I know now,

毫無概念

is the bottom of the sea.

而我現在知道

And 90 percent of our catch

我們所捕獲的其實是海洋底層

were sponges,

我們撈到的東西

other animals that are fixed on the bottom.

有九成是海綿

And actually most of the fish,

及其他附著於海底的動物

they are a little spot on the debris,

事實上大多數魚類

the piles of debris, were coral reef fish.

只佔這些殘渣的極小部份

Essentially the bottom of the sea came onto the deck

堆積如山的殘骸中有一些珊瑚礁魚類

and then was thrown down.

基本上這等於將海底搬上甲板

And these pictures are extraordinary

然後隨意丟棄

because this transition is very rapid.

這些圖片相當驚人

Within a year, you do a survey

因為轉變非常快

and then commercial fishing begins.

你在一年內做了一項調查

The bottom is transformed

然後開始進行商業性捕魚

from, in this case, a hard bottom or soft coral

海底開始發生改變

into a muddy mess.

以這裡來說，一片堅硬的海底或軟質珊瑚

This is a dead turtle.

變成一灘爛泥

They were not eaten, they were thrown away because they were dead.

這是一隻死去的海龜

And one time we caught a live one.

不是被捕食，而是因為已經死去便被丟棄

It was not drowned yet.

有一次我們抓到一隻活的

And then they wanted to kill it because it was good to eat.

牠還沒被淹死

This mountain of debris

人們想把美味的海龜殺來吃

is actually collected by fishers

這些堆積如山的殘骸

every time they go

是由漁民收集的

into an area that's never been fished.

每次出海

But it's not documented.

到尚未捕撈過的區域帶回來

We transform the world,

但從未被記錄下來

but we don't remember it.

我們改變了世界

We adjust our baseline

但卻不記得這些事

to the new level,

我們調整基準線

and we don't recall what was there.

到新的水平

If you generalize this,

但我們不記得過去曾經存在什麼

something like this happens.

如果你將這些做個總結

You have on the y axis some good thing:

就會像這樣

biodiversity, numbers of orca,

Y軸是一些正面的事情

the greenness of your country, the water supply.

生物多樣性、虎鯨個數

And over time it changes --

國家的綠化程度、水資源供給

it changes

隨著時間推移

because people do things, or naturally.

情況發生改變

Every generation

因為人們理所當然的行為而改變

will use the images

每一代的人們

that they got at the beginning of their conscious lives

會用那些

as a standard

他們有感知的生命初始時的印象

and will extrapolate forward.

作為基準

And the difference then,

然後向前推論

they perceive as a loss.

將其中差異

But they don't perceive what happened before as a loss.

視為一項損失

You can have a succession of changes.

但人們並沒有意識到在損失以前發生什麼事

At the end you want to sustain

你可以看到一個持續的變化

miserable leftovers.

到了最後你希望能保存

And that, to a large extent, is what we want to do now.

那些所剩無幾的剩餘物種

We want to sustain things that are gone

就大方向來說，這就是我們正想做的

or things that are not the way they were.

我們想保存已消失

Now one should think

或不復原貌的事物

this problem affected people

我們應該思考

certainly when in predatory societies,

這個問題如何影響那些

they killed animals

在獵食性社會的人

and they didn't know they had done so

他們捕獵動物

after a few generations.

而沒有意識到他們做了什麼

Because, obviously,

對後幾個世代造成了什麼改變

an animal that is very abundant,

因為，很明顯的

before it gets extinct,

每個物種的數量總是相當龐大

it becomes rare.

在牠們遭到滅絕

So you don't lose abundant animals.

變得稀有以前

You always lose rare animals.

所以數量豐富的動物不會消失

And therefore they're not perceived

會消失的總是稀有動物

as a big loss.

所以人們也不會意識到

Over time,

這個巨大損失

we concentrate on large animals,

某一段時期

and in a sea that means the big fish.

我們將注意力放在大型動物

They become rarer because we fish them.

在海洋中這意味著大型魚類

Over time we have a few fish left

大魚因我們的捕撈而越來越稀少

and we think this is the baseline.

不久後，海裡只剩一點點魚

And the question is,

然後我們會以這個數量重訂基準線

why do people accept this?

但問題是

Well because they don't know that it was different.

為什麼人們可以接受這種觀點

And in fact, lots of people, scientists,

那是因為人們無法區分其中的差異

will contest that it was really different.

事實上，很多人，尤其是科學家

And they will contest this

會爭論那差異是很大的

because the evidence

他們會如此爭論

presented in an earlier mode

是因為以早期模式

is not in the way

提出的證據

they would like the evidence presented.

並不是他們希望的

For example,

證據呈現方式

the anecdote that some present,

例如

as Captain so-and-so

有些軼事說

observed lots of fish in this area

船長某某人

cannot be used

曾在這個區域觀察到大量魚類

or is usually not utilized by fishery scientists,

這樣的訊息無法被採用

because it's not "scientific."

或通常不會被魚類科學家採用

So you have a situation

因為那並不「科學」

where people don't know the past,

所以現在的狀況是

even though we live in literate societies,

人們對過去毫無所知

because they don't trust

即使是生活在有文化的社會

the sources of the past.

因為他們不信任

And hence, the enormous role

過去的訊息來源

that a marine protected area can play.

因此，在這裡

Because with marine protected areas,

海洋保護區的角色就顯得很重要

we actually recreate the past.

一但有了海洋保護區

We recreate the past that people cannot conceive

我們可以重現過去

because the baseline has shifted

重現人們無法想像的過去

and is extremely low.

因為現在的基準線已經改變

That is for people

轉移到極低的標準

who can see a marine protected area

這是為了讓可以

and who can benefit

看見海洋保護區的人們

from the insight that it provides,

及藉由它提供的見識

which enables them to reset their baseline.

而獲益的人們

How about the people who can't do that

使他們能重設他們的基準線

because they have no access --

對於那些沒有機會

the people in the Midwest for example?

接近保護區的人們

There I think

例如住在美國中西部的人們呢？

that the arts and film

我認為

can perhaps fill the gap,

透過藝術和電影

and simulation.

或許可以彌補空缺

This is a simulation of Chesapeake Bay.

甚至是模擬技術

There were gray whales in Chesapeake Bay a long time ago --

這是柴斯比克灣的模擬圖

500 years ago.

顯示灰鯨在很久很久以前曾經生活在那裡

And you will have noticed that the hues and tones

大約五百年前

are like "Avatar."

然後你會發現這個色彩與色調

(Laughter)

跟「阿凡達」的世界很像

And if you think about "Avatar,"

（大笑）

if you think of why people were so touched by it --

讓我們想想「阿凡達」

never mind the Pocahontas story --

思考為何大家會對它深受感動

why so touched by the imagery?

即使故事像風中奇緣一樣

Because it evokes something

為何人們看到這些景象還是如此感動

that in a sense has been lost.

因為那喚起了人們

And so my recommendation,

對已經失去的事物的感受

it's the only one I will provide,

所以我建議

is for Cameron to do "Avatar II" underwater.

我唯一要提供的建議是

Thank you very much.

請卡麥隆在水底拍阿凡達第二集

(Applause)

謝謝各位