I'm going to start by asking you a question:

我想以問大家一個問題為開場

Is anyone familiar with the blue algae problem?

在座各位有人熟悉藍藻問題嗎？

Okay, so most of you are.

好的，所以大部份的人都熟悉

I think we can all agree it's a serious issue.

我想我們都同意這是個嚴重的問題

Nobody wants to drink blue algae-contaminated water,

沒有人想飲用受藍藻汙染的水

or swim in a blue algae-infested lake.

也沒人想在被藍藻侵佔的湖裡游泳

Right?

對吧？

I hope you won't be disappointed,

我希望不要讓大家感到失望

but today, I won't be talking about blue algae.

但今天的演講中，我並不會談到藍藻問題

Instead, I'll be talking about the main cause

我要談的是這個問題的根源

at the root of this issue,

造成藍藻問題的主要原因

which I will be referring to as the phosphorus crisis.

亦即磷帶來的危機

Why have I chosen to talk to you about the phosphorus crisis today?

為什麼我選擇磷危機 做為今天的演講議題呢？

For the simple reason that nobody else is talking about it.

最直接的原因是，因為沒有人談論它

And by the end of my presentation, I hope that the general public

在這場演講結束後，我希望社會大眾

will be more aware of this crisis and this issue.

能對磷危機和這項議題 有更多的認識和警覺

Now, the problem is that if I ask,

現在我們要討論的問題是，如果我這樣問：

why do we find ourselves in this situation with blue algae?

為什麼我們會陷入藍藻問題中？

The answer is that it comes from how we farm.

我會得到這樣的答案： 是我們的農業耕作方式造成的

We use fertilizers in our farming, chemical fertilizers.

因為我們在耕作時使用肥料，化學肥料

Why do we use chemical fertilizers in agriculture?

那麼為什麼我們要在耕作時使用化學肥料？

Basically, to help plants grow and to produce a better yield.

最基本的原因，幫助作物生長，增加收成

The issue is that this is set to engender

而問題點在於這樣的過程卻產生了

an environmental problem that is without precedent.

史無前例的環境問題

Before going further, let me give you a crash course in plant biology.

在進一步探討之前， 讓我簡短介紹一下作物生物學的基本知識

So, what does a plant need in order to grow?

作物需要什麼來成長呢？

A plant, quite simply, needs light, it needs CO2,

所有的植物，簡單直接的回答， 需要光和二氧化碳來生長

but even more importantly, it needs nutrients,

但更重要的是，植物還需要養分

which it draws from the soil.

而這些養分它們從土壤吸收獲得

Several of these nutrients are essential chemical elements:

這些生長所需的養分中， 許多是重要的化學元素

phosphorus, nitrogen and calcium.

比如磷，氮和鈣

So, the plant's roots will extract these resources.

植物的根會從土壤中吸取這些化學元素

Today I'll be focusing on a major problem that is linked to phosphorus.

今天我要談的是當中最重要的問題，磷的問題

Why phosphorus in particular?

為什麼是磷呢？

Because it is the most problematic chemical element.

因為它是最容易造成問題的化學元素

By the end of my presentation, you will have seen

這場演講結束後，你會了解到

what these problems are, and where we are today.

這些問題是什麼， 和我們今天面臨什麼樣的狀況

Phosphorus is a chemical element

磷是我們生活中不可或缺的

that is essential to life. This is a very important point.

必要化學元素。這是很重要的一點。

I'd like everyone to understand precisely what the phosphorus issue is.

我希望讓大家精確的了解磷危機是什麼

Phosphorus is a key component in several molecules,

磷是組成許多分子的基本元素

in many of our molecules of life.

我們生活中常見的分子化合物都需要它

Experts in the field will know

相關領域的專家都知道

that cellular communication is phosphorus-based --

磷也是人體細胞之間溝通的基本元素

phosphorylation, dephosphorylation.

比如磷酸，比如去磷酸化

Cell membranes are phosphorus-based: These are called phospholipids.

磷是組成細胞膜的基本成份， 這個成份叫做磷脂

The energy in all living things, ATP, is phosphorus-based.

所有生物的能量來源，如三磷酸腺苷(ATP)， 都以磷為基本元素

And more importantly still, phosphorus is a key component of DNA,

更重要的一點，磷還是構成DNA的關鍵元素

something everyone is familiar with, and which is shown in this image.

這部分大家就比較熟悉了， 我們在這個圖中能看到

DNA is our genetic heritage.

DNA即為我們的基因遺傳分子

It is extremely important, and once again, phosphorus is a key player.

它是非常重要的存在，而讓我再強調一次 磷是當中的關鍵成份

Now, where do we find this phosphorus?

現在讓我們回到問題， 我們可以在從哪裡獲得磷？

As humans, where do we find it?

身為人類，我們如何取得磷？

As I explained earlier,

我之前說

plants extract phosphorus from the soil, through water.

植物從土壤和水當中獲得磷

So, we humans get it from the things we eat:

同樣的道理，我們人類也從食物裡獲得磷

plants, vegetables, fruits,

從作物、蔬菜、水果

and also from eggs, meat and milk.

以及蛋、肉和牛奶

It's true that some humans eat better than others.

那個「吃得比別人好的人，

Some are happier than others.

也比其他人快樂」的說法其實是正確的

And now, looking at this picture, which speaks for itself,

現在看看這張圖，我們很輕易能看到

we see modern agriculture,

現代的農業耕作方式

which I also refer to as intensive agriculture.

我稱它為集約的農耕方式

Intensive agriculture is based on the use of chemical fertilizers.

能施行集約農耕的前提，則是使用化學肥料

Without them, we would not manage to produce enough

不用化學肥料，我們就無法達到那麼高的生產

to feed the world's population.

以滿足世界人口的食物需求

Speaking of humans, there are currently 7 billion of us on Earth.

提到人類總數，目前地球總人口約七十億人

In less than 40 years, there will be 9 billion of us.

而在未來四十年內， 人類人口會增加到九十億人

And the question is a simple one: Do we have enough phosphorus

這裡我們面臨的問題是簡單直接的： 我們有足夠的磷嗎？

to feed our future generations?

能滿足未來的人口需求嗎？

So, in order to understand these issues, where do we find our phosphorus?

為了能更進一步了解這個議題 讓我們來看看，我們能從哪裡獲得磷？

Let me explain.

我將對大家說明

But first, let's just suppose

首先，我們假設

that we are using 100 percent of a given dose of phosphorus.

這裡有100%的磷肥料，我們將它投給作物

Only 15 percent of this 100 percent goes to the plant. Eighty-five percent is lost.

這100%的磷當中，只有15%會被作物吸收 其實85%會流失

It goes into the soil, ending its journey in the lakes,

這85%會殘留在土壤裡， 最後順著雨水流入湖中

resulting in lakes with extra phosphorus, which leads to the blue algae problem.

於是湖擁有過量的磷， 最後導致藍藻問題

So, you'll see there's a problem here, something that is illogical.

所以你可以看到問題在哪了， 這過程中有什麼不符邏輯

A hundred percent of the phosphorus is used, but only 15 percent goes to the plant.

我們用了100%的磷， 但作物只吸收了15%

You're going to tell me it's wasteful.

你會說，這樣好浪費啊

Yes, it is. What is worse is that it is very expensive.

是的，沒錯。 而更糟的是，這樣不但浪費，還很花錢

Nobody wants to throw their money out the window,

沒有人想把錢白白丟出窗外

but unfortunately that's what is happening here.

但很不幸的， 這就是我們使用磷的情況

Eighty percent of each dose of phosphorus is lost.

每一次的投劑中，80%的磷都被浪費掉了

Modern agriculture depends on phosphorus.

磷是決定現代農耕方式的關鍵元素

And because in order to get 15 percent of it to the plant, all the rest is lost,

但就因為一份投劑只能讓作物吸收15%， 其他的都浪費掉

we have to add more and more.

我們得不斷增加投劑的份量

Now, where will we get this phosphorus from?

那麼，我們又是從哪裡得到磷肥料的來源？

Basically, we get it out of mines.

基本上來自於礦產

This is the cover of an extraordinary article

這是一篇相得出色的論文的封面

published in Nature in 2009,

該論文發表於2009年

which really launched the discussion about the phosphorus crisis.

它認真提出了磷危機這個議題

Phosphorus, a nutrient essential to life, which is becoming increasingly scarce,

磷，我們生活中必要的養分 正變得越來越稀少

yet nobody is talking about it.

但沒有人注意到這個問題

And everyone agrees: Politicians and scientists are in agreement

但是所有人都認同它的確在發生 政治家和科學家都同意

that we are headed for a phosphorus crisis.

我們正面臨磷的危機

What you are seeing here is an open-pit mine in the U.S.,

這裡你看到的是 美國的一處露天壙坑

and to give you an idea of the dimensions of this mine,

這個礦坑有多大呢？

if you look in the top right-hand corner, the little crane you can see,

請看右上角，你能看到一個小小的起重機

that is a giant crane.

這起重機實際上是很巨大的

So that really puts it into perspective.

這樣我們能了解這個礦坑有多大了吧

So, we get phosphorus from mines.

現在我們知道我們的磷 是從礦脈開採獲得的

And if I make a comparison with oil,

如果跟石油做比較的話

there's an oil crisis, we talk about it, we talk about global warming,

我們也面臨石油危機，我們談論這個危機 我們也談論全球暖化的問題

yet we never mention the phosphorus crisis.

但目前為止沒人談論磷的危機

To come back to the oil problem, oil is something we can replace.

回到石油問題上， 我們可以找到石油的替代能源

We can use biofuels, or solar power,

比如生物燃料，或太陽能

or hydropower, but phosphorus is an essential element,

或水力發電， 但磷這個必要的元素

indispensable to life, and we can't replace it.

在我們生活中不可或缺的元素， 我們是找不到替代品的

What is the current state of the world's phosphorus reserves?

全球的磷存量現在剩下多少了呢？

This graph gives you a rough idea of where we are today.

從這張圖中你可以 大概看出來我們目前的情況

The black line represents predictions for phosphorus reserves.

黑線代表預測的未來磷存量

In 2030, we'll reach the peak.

2030年時存量會到達巔峰

By the end of this century, it will all be gone.

但在本世紀末，這些存量會全耗盡

The dotted line shows where we are today.

虛線表示我們目前擁有的存量

As you can see, they meet in 2030, I'll be retired by then.

你們可以看到，這兩條線會在2030年交集 那時候我應該就退休了

But we are indeed heading for a major crisis,

但我們現在的確面臨著重大的危機

and I'd like people to become aware of this problem.

我希望喚起大家的注意

Do we have a solution?

我們有解決方案嗎？

What are we to do? We are faced with a paradox.

我們該怎麼做？ 這是個矛盾的兩難題

Less and less phosphorus will be available.

我們可用的磷會變得越來越少

By 2050 there will be 9 billion of us,

到了2050年，世界總人口到達90億

and according to the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization,

而根據聯合國食物與農業組織的統計

we will need to produce twice as much food in 2050 than we do today.

2050年時，我們需要食物的量 會變成現在的兩倍

So, we will have less phosphorus, but we'll need to produce more food.

到時我們擁有比現在更少的磷 但卻需要生產更多的食物

What should we do?

我們該怎麼做？

It truly is a paradoxical situation.

這的確是個矛盾的兩難處境

Do we have a solution, or an alternative

我們有解決方案嗎？或其他的方式

which will allow us to optimize phosphorus use?

能讓我們更有效的使用目前的磷？

Remember that 80 percent is destined to be lost.

想想那80%一定會被浪費掉的磷

The solution I'm offering today is one that has existed for a very long time,

今天我在這場演講裡提出的解決方案 其實是個存在很久的方法

even before plants existed on Earth,

它甚至早在地球存在之前就存在了

and it's a microscopic mushroom that is very mysterious,

即使用微蕈生物，一種神祕的微生物

very simple, and yet also extremely complex.

它們的構造非常單純，但也非常複雜

I've been fascinated by this little mushroom for over 16 years now.

我著迷於這些微蕈生物的世界16年

It has led me to further my research

它讓我的研究能更進一步開展

and to use it as a model for my laboratory research.

並以它為模型基準， 應用在我的實驗室研究上

This mushroom exists in symbiosis with the roots.

這些微蕈是共生的，擁有相同的根

By symbiosis, I mean a bidirectional and mutually beneficial association

這裡的共生，然的是雙向互惠，並共同獲利的連結

which is also called mycorrhiza.

這個連結的部位我們稱為菌根

This slide illustrates the elements of a mycorrhiza.

側邊這張圖說明菌根的組成元素

You're looking at the root of wheat,

這是小麥的根

one of the world's most important plants.

小麥，世界最重要的作物之一

Normally, a root will find phosphorus all by itself.

一般的情況下，作物的根會自動尋找磷

It will go in search of phosphorus,

它會深入土中尋找磷

but only within the one millimeter which surrounds it.

但範圍只限於它周遭一毫米半徑的距離

Beyond one millimeter, the root is ineffective.

超過一毫米，根就搜尋不到了

It cannot go further in its search for phosphorus.

它沒辦法再延伸範圍去搜尋磷

Now, imagine this tiny, microscopic mushroom.

現在，想像一下這些微小的微蕈生物

It grows much faster,

它們比作物生長得快

and is much better designed to seek out phosphorus.

它們的構造也更適合搜尋磷

It can go beyond the root's one-millimeter scope

它可以超出作物根部的一毫米範圍

to seek out phosphorus.

去搜尋更多的磷

I haven't invented anything at all;

以上這些都不是我改良發明的

it's a biotechnology that has existed for 450 million years.

這是從45億年前就存在的優秀生物構造

And over time, this mushroom has evolved and adapted to seek out

經過時間演化，這些微蕈在搜尋磷上變得更精密

even the tiniest trace of phosphorus, and to put it to use,

任何一點細小的磷都能搜尋到， 並能吸收它為己用

to make it available to the plant.

也讓它能被作物所用

What you're seeing here, in the real world, is a carrot root,

你在這張圖裡看到的 是現實世界的情況，這是蘿蔔的根

and the mushroom with its very fine filaments.

根旁邊是這些微蕈和它們的蕈絲構造

Looking closer, we can see that this mushroom

再仔細一點觀察 我們可以看到這些微蕈

is very gentle in its penetration.

相當和緩的侵入植物根部

It will proliferate between the root's cells,

它在植物的根部細胞間增生

eventually penetrating a cell

最後會穿透周遭的細胞

and starting to form a typical arbuscular structure,

開始依標準的叢枝架構增殖

which will considerably increase the exchange interface

同時和作物間的接口也會跟著增加

between the plant and the mushroom.

作物和微蕈的連接會變多

And it is through this structure that mutual exchanges will occur.

透過彼此同的連接架構， 它們會建立起互利合作關係

It's a win-win trade:

這是雙贏的互利交換

I give you phosphorus, and you feed me.

我為你搜尋磷，而你餵養我

True symbiosis.

真正的互利共生

Now let's add a mycorrhiza plant

現在我們將這些和微蕈共生的作物

into the diagram I used earlier.

放到之前我們參考的圖表來看

And instead of using a 100 percent dose, I'm going to reduce it to 25 percent.

之前我們用100%的磷為投劑， 現在我將劑量減為25%

You'll see that of this 25 percent, most will benefit the plant,

你可以看到這25%的劑量多半被作物吸收

more than 90 percent.

超過90%以上都被吸收了

A very small amount of phosphorus will remain in the soil.

只會有極少部份殘留在土壤裡

That's completely natural.

這個解決方法完全符合自然生態

What's more is that in certain cases, we don't even need to add phosphorus.

更棒的是，在某些環境下 我們甚至不需要再施化肥

If you recall the graphs I showed you earlier,

如果你們還記得之前我展示的圖表

85 percent of phosphorus is lost in the soil,

85%的磷流失，殘留在土壤裡

and the plants are unable to access it.

作物沒有辦法吸收它

Even though it is present in the soil, it is in insoluble form.

就算這些土壤富含磷， 但這些磷是不可溶性的

The plant is only able to seek out soluble forms.

作物只能吸收可溶性的磷

The mushroom is capable of dissolving this insoluble form

而微蕈能夠溶去這些磷不可溶的部份

and making it available for the plant to use.

讓它們能被作物吸收

To further support my argument, here is a picture that speaks for itself.

為了更進一步證明我的觀點，請看這張圖

These are trials in a field of sorghum.

這是一片試驗田地 種植的作物是高梁

On the left side, you see the yield produced using conventional agriculture,

左方是以一般農業方式種植出來的作物產量

with a 100 percent phosphorus dose.

施以100%的磷肥料

On the other side, the dose was reduced to 50 percent,

另一邊，將磷肥料減為50%

and just look at the yield.

請看照片中的作物產量

With only a half-dose, we achieved a better yield.

我們只用了一半的磷，但卻得到更多的收穫

This is to show you that this method works.

這告訴我們，這樣的方法是可行的

And in some cases, in Cuba, Mexico and India,

在我們於古巴、墨西哥和印度的實驗案例中

the dose can be reduced to 25 percent, and in several other cases,

磷肥料可以減到25% 在其他案例裡，

there's no need to add any phosphorus at all,

甚至能完全不施磷肥料

because the mushrooms are so well adapted

因為微蕈演進得非常好

to finding phosphorus and drawing it from the soil.

很有效率的從土壤中吸取磷

This is an example of soy production in Canada.

這是在加拿大的案例，種植作物是黃豆

Mycorrhiza was used in one field but not in the other.

只有其中一座田用了微蕈，其他沒有

And here, where blue indicates a better yield, and yellow a weaker yield.

圖中藍色部分代表較高的產量， 黃色部分代表較低的產量

The black rectangle is the plot

黑色三角形則標出

from which the mycorrhiza was added.

施加微蕈的田地

In other words, as I already said, I have invented nothing.

換句話說，就像我之前說過的， 我沒有發明任何新的生物科技

Mycorrhiza has existed for 450 million years,

45億年前這些微蕈就存在了

and it has even helped modern-day plant species to diversify.

而它依舊能幫助現代的植物適應環境

So, this it isn't something that is still undergoing lab tests.

這並不是什麼還在實驗測試階段的研究

Mycorrhiza exists, it works,

這些微蕈早就存在於自然界中，並且很有幫助

it's produced at an industrial scale and commercialized worldwide.

它能提供全球性的大規模生產和商業機能

The problem is that people are not aware of it.

問題在於人們不注重它

People like food producers and farmers are still not aware of this problem.

食品生產者和農夫還沒意識到磷的問題

We have a technology that works,

我們擁有能解決問題的技術

and one that, if used correctly, will alleviate some of the pressure

在這前提下，如果能正確的使用這技術

we are putting on the world's phosphorus reserves.

我們能舒緩世界磷存量不足的帶來的壓力

In conclusion, I am a scientist and a dreamer.

總而言之，我是名科學家，也是個夢想家

I'm passionate about this topic.

我對這個議題充滿熱情

So if you were to ask me what my retirement dream is,

如果你要問我的退休夢想是什麼

which will be at the moment we reach that phosphorus peak,

那時正好也是我們面臨磷產量高峰的時候

it would be that we use one label, "Made with mycorrhiza,"

我的夢想是，那個時候這個標語 會被我們大量使用：「真蕈種植」

and that my children and grandchildren

而我的孩子和孫子們

buy products bearing that label too.

會去購買貼有「真蕈種植」標語的食品

Thank you for your attention.

感謝大家的聆聽

(Applause)

(掌聲)