not a new therapy or a new intervention

今天我要談談社會變革

or a new way of working with kids or something like that,

但並不是用什麼像新的醫療、干預、

but a new business model for social change,

或是與孩子接觸的新方式之類的

a new way of tackling the problem.

而是一個促進社會變革的嶄新企業模式

In Britain, 63 percent of all men

一個對付社會問題的新方法

who come out of short sentences from prison

在英國，百分之六十三

re-offend again within a year.

短期服刑的囚犯在釋放後

Now how many previous offenses

一年內就會回鍋

do you think they have on average

你想想看

managed to commit?

他們在這之前

Forty-three.

平均犯下多少案件?

And how many previous times do you think they've been in prison?

43件

Seven.

那你認為當中有幾位是累犯?

So we went to talk to the Ministry of Justice,

七位

and we said to the Ministry of Justice,

所以我們就跟司法行政部談

what's it worth to you

跟司法行政部說

if fewer of these guys re-offend?

若減少累犯

It's got to be worth something, right?

對你有多少價值?

I mean, there's prison costs,

總該要有價值的嘛! 對不對?

there's police costs, there's court costs,

我是說，會有監獄運行的費用

all these things that you're spending money on

出警的費用，法庭訴訟的費用等等。

to deal with these guys. What's it worth?

這一大堆你花的費用

Now, of course, we care about the social value.

應付這方面的人事，花得有價值嗎?

Social Finance, the organization I helped set up,

理所當然的，我們重視社會價值

cares about social stuff.

所以我幫忙設立了一個機構叫作社會理財

But we wanted to make the economic case,

來應對社會問題

because if we could make the economic case,

但我們也希望可以從經濟方面著手

then the value of doing this would be completely compelling.

若能行的話

And if we can agree on both a value

就可讓推動社會價值十分鼓舞人心

and a way of measuring whether we've been

若我們可以同意在價值觀

successful at reducing that re-offending,

和衡量是否真的有

then we can do something

成功減少累犯方式等方面取得共識

we think rather interesting.

我們就可以去做

The idea is called the social impact bond.

更大膽有趣的事情

Now, the social impact bond is simply saying,

稱為社會效益債券

if we can get the government to agree,

簡單的說

that we can create a contract where

就是在取得政府的同意下

they only pay if it worked.

我們可以簽署一張合約

So that means that they can try out new stuff

上面寫著只有在成功條件下，政府才付錢

without the embarrassment

這樣政府就可以大膽去嘗試新鮮事物

of having to pay if it didn't work,

而無後顧之憂

which for still quite a lot of bits of government,

不用擔心在失敗的情況下

that's a serious issue.

還要做可能超過政府能承擔費用的窘境

Now, many of you may have noticed

這是很嚴肅的議題

there's a problem at this point,

在座的各位可能也開始

and that is that it takes a long time to measure

注意到一些問題了

whether those outcomes have happened.

那就是這需要很長時間

So we have to raise some money.

去衡量效果

We use the contract to raise money

所以我們得去籌錢

from socially motivated investors.

我們就使用這些契約

Socially motivated investors:

去跟希望投資於社會的人籌錢

there's an interesting idea, right?

積極想要投資於社會的人

But actually, there's a lot of people who,

很有意思，對吧!

if they're given the chance,

但其實，有許多人

would love to invest in something

一旦有機會

that does social good.

他們十分願意投資

And here's the opportunity.

對社會有益的事

Do you want to also help government find

他們的機會來了

whether there's a better economic model,

您想要幫助政府

not just leaving these guys to come out of prison

找出是否有更好的經濟模式

and waiting till they re-offend and putting them back in again,

而不是等到這些從監獄出來的人

but actually working with them

重新再犯，然後再關回去

to move to a different path

而是實際上幫他們

to end up with fewer crimes

找出新的路途

and fewer victims?

真的達到減少犯罪

So we find some investors,

和受害人的目的

and they pay for a set of services,

所以我們找到了一些投資者

and if those services are successful,

他們承擔了服務的費用

then they improve outcomes,

若這些服務成功的話

and with those measured reductions in re-offending,

他們可以繼而改善結果

government saves money,

藉由這些可衡量的方式減少累犯

and with those savings,

政府也可以在這方面省下一筆錢

they can pay outcomes.

省下的這筆錢

And the investors do not just get their money back,

就可繼而花在結果上

but they make a return.

這樣一來，投資者不只得到原本投資的錢

So in March 2010, we signed

也得到了回報

the first social impact bond

所以在2010年的3月

with the Ministry of Justice

我們在彼得伯勒監獄

around Peterborough Prison.

首次跟司法行政部

It was to work with 3,000 offenders

簽署了社會效益債券

split into three cohorts of 1,000 each.

共有3000位罪犯

Now, each of those cohorts

分成3批，各批1000人

would get measured over the two years

每批都會

that they were coming out of prison.

用超過2年的時間衡量

They've got to have a year to commit their crimes,

在他們出獄後

six months to get through the court system,

他們有一年是否犯罪的衡量時間

and then they would be compared to a group

半年走司法程序的時間

taken from the police national computer,

然後跟一組

as similar as possible,

從警察局的數據挑來的做比較

and we would get paid

挑越相近的組別越好

providing we achieved a hurdle rate of 10-percent reduction,

我們的報酬

for every conviction event that didn't happen.

只有在成功達到

So we get paid for crimes saved.

降低犯罪率百分之十，才能獲得支付

Now if we achieved that 10-percent reduction

所以我們是在減少犯罪 的情況下才能得到支付

across all three cohorts,

假設這三批罪犯

then the investors get a seven and a half percent

都全面性減少百分之十

annualized return on their investment,

我們的投資人就可以得到

and if we do better than that,

年利率7.5%的回報

they can get up to 13 percent

若我們做得比這個還要好

annualized return on their investment,

投資人就可以獲得

which is okay.

年利率13%的回報

So everyone wins here, right?

這樣也不錯

The Ministry of Justice can try out a new program

這樣一來，大家都是贏家了，對吧!

and they only pay if it works.

司法行政部可以大膽嘗試新的方案

Investors get two opportunities:

只有在成功的條件下才支付費用

for the first time, they can invest in social change.

投資人得到兩種機會

Also, they make a reasonable return,

首先，他們可以投資於社會變革

and they also know that

並得到合理的回報

first investors in these kinds of things,

他們也知道

they're going to have to believers.

在這方面做為首批的投資人

They're going to have to care in the social program,

他們也必須相信這方法可行

but if this builds a track record

他們也必須去在乎社會方案

over five or 10 years,

若建立這記錄

then you can widen that investor community

可長達五年或十年

as more people have confidence in the product.

就可以因為越來越多人

The service providers, well, for the first time,

對此產品充滿信心 進而擴展投資者的人數

they've got an opportunity to provide services

提供這些服務的人也頭一次

and grow the evidence for what they're doing

有機會可以在提供服務之餘

in a really constructive way and learn

證明他們所做的工作

and demonstrate the value of what they're doing

是有貢獻意義的

over five or six years, not just one or two

而且證明了他們的社會價值

as often happens at the moment.

在未來五或六年

Society wins: fewer crimes, fewer victims.

而非一兩年的曇花一現

Now, the offenders, they also benefit.

社會也是個贏家: 罪犯降低，受害者也減少了

Instead of just coming out of the prison

再來就是對罪犯也是有益的

with 46 pounds in their pocket,

他們得到釋放時

half of them not knowing where they're spending

除了口袋裡的46英鎊

their first night out of jail,

一半以上的罪犯根本都不知道

actually, someone meets them in prison,

他們出獄的第一晚住哪?

learns about their issues,

其實，某人與他們在監獄裡見面

meets them at the gate,

了解他們深陷的情況

takes them through to somewhere to stay,

在大門口與他們見面

connects them to benefits, connects them to employment,

帶領他們到某處待一晚

drug rehabilitation, mental health,

幫他們聯絡上救濟金，勞工局

whatever's needed.

戒毒所，精神院等

So let's think of another example:

任何他們需要的東西

working with children in care.

那我們在想想另一個範例:

Social impact bonds work great

跟托育中心合作

for any area where there is at the moment

社會效益債券

very expensive provision that produces

不管在哪一方面

poor outcomes for people.

都很適合設備昂貴

So children in the state care

但對人類貢獻貧乏的地方

tend to do very badly.

小孩受到國家托育中心

Only 13 percent achieve a reasonable level

的照顧都不太好

of five GCSEs at 16,

比起 58% 的人口

against 58 percent of the wider population.

只有 13% 在16歲時

More troublingly, 27 percent of offenders in prison

得到英國普通中等教育證書的第五級

have spent some time in care.

更糟的是，罪犯當中有27%

And even more worryingly,

待過托育中心

and this is a Home Office statistic,

令人更擔憂的是

70 percent of prostitutes

根據內政部的統計

have spent some time in care.

70%的娼妓

The state is not a great parent.

都待過托育中心

But there are great programs

顯然國家托育中心並不是個很棒的父母

for adolescents who are on the edge of care,

但是我們有很棒的方案

and 30 percent of kids going into care

針對極需照顧青少年

are adolescents.

有30%進入托育中心的孩子

So we set up a program with Essex County Council

都是青少年

to test out intensive family therapeutic support

所以我們和艾塞克斯郡議會簽署了一個方案

for those families with adolescents

提供加強家庭療法

on the edge of the care system.

為那些

Essex only pays in the event

將送去托育中心的青少年

that it's saving them care costs.

艾塞克斯郡議會

Investors have put in 3.1 million pounds.

只有在成功救了這些青少年的情況下才需做支付

That program started last month.

目前投資人已經投資了310萬英鎊

Others, around homelessness in London,

這方案已在上個月開始執行了

around youth and employment and education

其他問題，像在倫敦無家可歸的人

elsewhere in the country.

或是小孩或就業和教育問題

There are now 13 social impact bonds in Britain,

在倫敦以外其它地區

and amazing levels of interest in this idea

在英國目前已有13個社會效益債券

all over the world.

而且全世界

So David Cameron's put 20 million pounds

對這樣的想法也有濃厚的興趣。

into a social outcomes fund to support this idea.

大衛卡梅倫

Obama has suggested 300 million dollars

已經在社會方面投資了2000萬英鎊。

in the U.S. budget for these kinds of ideas

歐巴馬建議

and structures to move it forward,

投資3憶美元的預算

and a lot of other countries

幫這類的想法和結構推一把，往前邁進

are demonstrating considerable interest.

還有其他許多的國家對這些表示深度興趣

So what's caused this excitement?

對這些表示深度興趣

Why is this so different for people?

究竟是什麼挑起這股興奮?

Well, the first piece, which we've talked about,

為何異於別人的呢?

is innovation.

首先，我們剛剛在談的

It enables testing of new ideas

就是創新

in a way that's less difficult for everybody.

它能夠較毫不費力的方式

The second piece it brings is rigor.

讓大家嘗試新的主意

By working to outcomes, people really have to test

其二，它為人們帶來精確的數據

and bring data into the situation that one's dealing with.

為了得到理想中的結果，人們就真的得去嘗試

So taking Peterborough as an example,

然後把數據帶到處理中的事件

we add case management

就拿彼得伯勒監獄做為一例

across all of the different organizations that we're working with

我們與不同合作機構

so they know

加入專案管理

what actually has been done with different prisoners,

這樣它們才知道

and at the same time they learn

實際上有與哪些犯人做過什麼樣的處理

from the Ministry of Justice, and we learn,

他們第一時間跟司法行政部學到一些東西時

because we pushed for the data,

我們也會同時學到

what actually happens, whether they get re-arrested or not.

因為我們要管理數據

And we learn and adapt the program accordingly.

像真正發生了什麼事，他們是否有再犯等

And this leads to the third element, which is new,

然後根據此數據做出因應之道

and that's flexibility.

而這就帶領我們到第三點，新的領域

Because normal contracting for things,

而且充滿彈性

when you're spending government money,

就普遍的契約就是

you're spending our money, tax money,

當你花政府的錢時

and the people who are in charge of that are very aware of it

你就是在花我們的錢 － 我們繳的稅

so the temptation is to control exactly how you spend it.

負責這批錢的人十分了解這點

Now any entrepreneur in the room knows

所以要抗拒的誘點是控制你花費的方式

that version 1.0, the business plan,

在座的企業家都知道

is not the one that generally works.

企業計劃書的第一個版本

So when you're trying to do something like this,

普通都沒有派上場

you need the flexibility to adapt the program.

所以當你想嘗試像這樣的計畫時

And again, in Peterborough, we started off

你需要有彈性去修改計畫

with a program, but we also collected data,

所以在彼得伯勒監獄開始此方案時

and over the period of time,

我們也開始收集數據

we nuanced and changed that program

所以每過了一段時間

to add a range of other elements,

我們就會為方案做一點修補－

so that the service adapts

加入一些其它的元素

and we meet the needs of the long term

讓我們的方案變得更好

as well as the short term:

以便取得長期

greater engagement from the prisoners,

和短期的目標－

longer-term engagement as well.

與牢犯有更深的互動

The last element is partnership.

且還是長期的互動

There is, at the moment, a stale debate going on very often:

最後一點就是合夥關係

state's better, public sector's better,

目前有個常吵得熱烘烘，停滯不前的辯論題

private sector's better, social sector's better,

不是辯論著這些方案由國家提供的較好

for a lot of these programs.

就是辯論著由國營部門，私營企業

Actually, for creating social change,

或社會福利組織等較好

we need to bring in the expertise

坦白說，為了創造社會變革

from all of those parties

我們都需要

in order to make this work.

所有部門的幫助

And this creates a structure

才能達到目標

through which they can combine.

在他們互相合作下

So where does this leave us?

創造出新的社會結構

This leaves us with a way

這可為我們帶來什麼呢?

that people can invest in social change.

這為我們帶來一種

We've met thousands, possibly millions of people,

讓人們可以投資社會變革的方式

who want the opportunity to invest in social change.

我們遇到好幾千，可能好幾百萬的人

We've met champions all over the public sector

都想要有機會去投資於社會變革

keen to make these kinds of differences.

我們在國營部門遇到出類拔萃的人

With this kind of model,

他們熱誠地想為社會帶來不同

we can help bring them together.

有了這個模式

Thank you.

我們就可以協助他們攜手

(Applause)

謝謝