or actually Rockaway Park.

這是一張我和我父親的合照

I'm the one with the blond hair.

在Far Rockaway海灘上

My dad's the guy with the cigarette.

那裡叫做Rockaway公園。

It was the 60's.

我是金髮的那個。

A lot of people smoked back then.

我父親是拿著香菸的那個。

In the summer of 2009, my dad was diagnosed with lung cancer.

當時正值60年代， 那時候很多人抽煙。

Cancer is one of those things that actually touches everybody.

2009年夏天，

If you're a man in the US,

我父親被診斷出罹患肺癌。

you've got about a one in two chance

癌症是是和人人都有關係的東西。

of being diagnosed with cancer during your lifetime.

如果你是一個男性的美國人，

If you're a woman, you've got about a one in three chance

你這一生將會有一半的機會被診斷出癌症。

of being diagnosed with cancer.

你這一生將會有一半的機會被診斷出癌症。

Everybody knows somebody who's been diagnosed with cancer.

如果你是女性，

Now, my dad's doing better today,

你會有三分之一的機會被診斷出癌症。

and part of the reason for that is that he was able to participate in the trial

每個人都會認識一些被診斷出癌症的人。

of an experimental new drug that happened to be specially formulated

每個人都會認識一些被診斷出癌症的人。

and very good for his particular kind of cancer.

好，我父親現在好多了。

There are over 200 kinds of cancer.

有一部分的原因是他可以參與 一種實驗性新藥的測試

And what I want to talk about today

有一部分的原因是他可以參與 一種實驗性新藥的測試。

is how we can help more people like my dad,

有一部分的原因是他可以參與 一種實驗性新藥的測試。

because we have to change the way we think about raising money

這種藥對於他所得的特定癌症非常有效。

to fund cancer research.

這種藥對於他所得的特定癌症非常有效。

So a while after my dad was diagnosed,

癌症有超過200種。

I was having coffee with my friend Andrew Lo.

我今天所要說的是 我們如何能幫助更多像我父親一樣的人。

He's the head of the Laboratory for Financial Engineering at MIT,

我今天所要說的是 我們如何能幫助更多像我父親一樣的人。

where I also have a position,

因為我們必須要改變我們對於 癌症研究募款的想法。

and we were talking about cancer.

因為我們必須要改變我們對於 癌症研究募款的想法。

And Andrew had been doing his own bits of research,

我父親被診斷出後不久，

and one of the things that he had been told

我和我的朋友Andrew Lo一起喝了杯咖啡。

and that he'd learned from studying the literature

他是麻省理工學院財務工程實驗室的負責人

was that there's actually a big bottleneck.

而我也是這個實驗室的其中一員。

It's very difficult to develop new drugs,

我們談論著癌症，

and the reason it's difficult to develop new drugs

Andrew也做了他的研究：

is because in the early stages of drug development,

有人告訴他

the drugs are very risky, and they're very expensive.

並且他也從閱讀文獻得知，

So Andrew asked me if I'd want to maybe work with him a bit,

現在有個很大的瓶頸 --

work on some of the math and the analytics

新藥很難研發出來，

and see if we could figure out something we could do.

而此原因在於研發的早期階段

Now I'm not a scientist.

而此原因在於研發的早期階段

You know, I don't know how to build a drug.

研發的藥物風險很大，

And none of my coauthors, Andrew Lo or Jose-Maria Fernandez or David Fagnan --

也很昂貴。

none of those guys are scientists either.

所以Andrew問我是否有意願跟他合作，

We don't know the first thing about how to make a cancer drug.

所以Andrew問我是否有意願跟他合作，

But we know a little bit about risk mitigation

在數學以及分析上面著手

and a little bit about financial engineering,

看看我們能否找到我們能改變什麼。

and so we started thinking, what could we do?

我並不是一名科學家，

I'm going to tell you about some work

所以，我並不了解怎麼做出一種藥。

we've been doing over the last couple years

我的任何一位同事，Andrew Lo，

that we think could fundamentally change the way

Jose Maria Fernandez，或是David Fagnan--

research for cancer and lots of other things gets done.

沒有任何人--是科學家。

We want to let the research drive the funding,

我們不知道製造癌症藥物的第一步是什麼，

not the other way around.

但是我們知道些許和降低風險有關的事，

So in order to get started,

還有一點點財務工程。

let me tell you how you get a drug financed.

然後我們開始思考， 我們究竟能做些什麼？

Imagine that you're in your lab -- you're a scientist, you're not like me --

我將告訴你們我們過去數年在做的事 --

and you've developed a new compound

我將告訴你們我們過去數年在做的事 --

that you think might be therapeutic for somebody with cancer.

我們相信這會在根本上 改變癌症研究以及很多其他事情的做法。

Well, what you do is, you test in animals, you test in test tubes,

我們相信這會在根本上 改變癌症研究以及很多其他事情的做法。

but there's this notion of going from the bench to the bedside,

我們想讓研究主導資金，

and in order to get from the bench, the lab, to the bedside, to the patients,

而不是反過來。

you've got to get the drug tested.

首先，讓我告訴你們如何幫一種藥籌措資金。

And the way the drug gets tested

首先，讓我告訴你們如何幫一種藥籌措資金。

is through a series of, basically, experiments,

想像你在一間實驗室裡--

through these large, they're called trials,

跟我不一樣的是，你是一名科學家--

that they do to determine whether the drug is safe

你是科學家，而你研發出了

and whether it works and all these things.

一種你認為能夠治療癌症病患的新物質。

So the FDA has a very specific protocol.

一種你認為能夠治療癌症病患的新物質。

In the first phase of this testing,

嗯，你所要做的，就是在動物身上測試，

which is called testing for toxicity, it's called Phase I.

在試管裡測試，

In the first phase, you give the drug to healthy people

但是有個從實驗桌到臨床的概念：

and you see if it actually makes them sick.

但是有個從實驗桌到臨床的概念：

In other words, are the side effects just so severe

而為了從實驗桌、實驗室，到臨床、給病人使用，

that no matter how much good it does,

而為了從實驗桌、實驗室，到臨床、給病人使用，

it's not going to be worth it?

你必須要測試這種藥。

Does it cause heart attacks, kill people, liver failure?

藥物測試基本上就是一系列的實驗。

And it turns out, that's a pretty high hurdle.

藥物測試基本上就是一系列的實驗。

About a third of all drugs drop out at that point.

透過這些被稱之為臨床證驗的大型實驗，

In the next phase, you test to see if the drug's effective,

來決定這種藥是否安全或有效等等。

and you give it to people with cancer

來決定這種藥是否安全或有效等等。

and you see if it makes them better.

因此美國食品藥物管理局有一套特定的準則。

And that's also a higher hurdle. People drop out.

在這個測試的第一階段，

And in the third phase, you test it on a very large sample,

稱為毒性測試，

and you're trying to determine what the right dose is,

叫做第一期。

is it better than what's available today? If not, then why build it?

在第一期中，會給健康的人用這些藥，

When you're done with all that,

看是否會讓他們不適。

what you have is a very small percentage of drugs

換句話說，不論藥物帶來多少好處

that start the process actually come out the other side.

副作用都可能讓這種藥物要失去它的價值。

So those blue bottles -- those blue bottles save lives,

副作用都可能讓這種藥物要失去它的價值。

and they're also worth billions, sometimes billions a year.

它會引發心臟病嗎？會致命嗎？

So now here's a question:

會引發肝衰竭嗎？會引發類似問題嗎？

if I were to ask you, for example,

事實證明，這是個頗高的障礙。

to make a one-time investment of, say, 200 million dollars

大約有三分之一的藥跨不過這道障礙。

to buy one of those bottles,

在下一期， 測試的是這種藥的效能。

so 200 million dollars up front, one time, to buy one of those bottles,

你要做的是讓癌症病患使用這種藥，

I won't tell you which one it is,

看是否能讓他們好些。

and in 10 years, I'll tell you whether you have one of the blue ones.

這又是另一道更高的牆， 很多會被淘汰

Does that sound like a good deal for anybody?

第三期你將會在很多的樣本上做測試，

No. No, right?

目的是確認正確的劑量。 同時

And of course, it's a very, very risky trial position,

同時確認它是否比現存的藥物好。

and that's why it's very hard to get funding,

如果沒有，那為什麼要生產它呢？

but to a first approximation, that's actually the proposal.

當這些事情都做完了以後，

You have to fund these things from the early stages on.

只有一小部分的藥物能通過整個程序。

It takes a long time.

只有一小部分的藥物能通過整個程序。

So Andrew said to me, he said,

這些藍色小瓶子能夠救人一命

"What if we stop thinking about these as drugs?

同時，它們價值數十億，

What if we start thinking about them as financial assets?"

有時候一年就能賺進數十億。

They've got really weird payoff structures and all that,

問題來了：

but let's throw everything we know about financial engineering at them.

例如我問你是否願意做個一次性的投資，

Let's see if we can use all the tricks of the trade

例如我問你是否願意做個一次性的投資，

to figure out how to make these drugs work as financial assets.

例如說，兩億

Let's create a giant fund.

來買這些瓶子的其中之一，

In finance, we know what to do with assets that are risky.

先一次性的付兩億，

You put them in a portfolio and you try to smooth out the returns.

來買某個瓶子，

So we did some math, and it turned out you could make this work,

我不會告訴你你買的是哪一個--

but in order to make it work, you need about 80 to 150 drugs.

十年之後，我再告訴你是哪一個。

Now the good news is, there's plenty of drugs

對你們來說是筆好生意嗎？

that are waiting to be tested.

不是。不是，對嗎？

We've been told that there's a backlog of about 20 years of drugs

這當然是個風險非常、非常大的情況，

that are waiting to be tested but can't be funded.

而這也就是為什麼融資如此困難。

In fact, that early stage of the funding process,

但是大致上來說，

that Phase I and preclinical stuff,

提案就是這樣子。

that's actually, in the industry, called the Valley of Death

在一開始你就得為這些事情籌錢， 這會花很多時間。

because it's where drugs go to die.

在一開始你就得為這些事情籌錢， 這會花很多時間。

It's very hard to for them to get through there,

所以Andrew對我說：

and of course, if you can't get through there,

「如果我們別把它們看作藥呢？

you can't get to the later stages.

如果我們把他們當做資產呢？」

So we did this math, and we figured out, OK,

它們有著很詭異的報酬結構，

well, you need about 80 to, say, 150, or something like that, drugs.

但就把它們放進我們所知的財務工程裡吧！

And then we did a little more math, and we said, OK,

但就把它們放進我們所知的財務工程裡吧！

well, that's a fund of about three to 15 billion dollars.

來瞧瞧我們是否能用交易的把戲 來把這些藥物變成資產？

So we kind of created a new problem by solving the old one.

來瞧瞧我們是否能用交易的把戲 來把這些藥物變成資產？

We got rid of the risk, but now we need a lot of capital,

來瞧瞧我們是否能用交易的把戲 來把這些藥物變成資產？

and you can only get that kind of capital in the capital markets.

讓我們創造一筆巨額資金，

Venture capitalists and philanthropies don't have it.

在金融界，我們知道要如何處理高風險資產：

But we have to figure out how to get people in the capital markets,

在金融界，我們知道要如何處理高風險資產：

who traditionally don't invest in this, to want to invest in this stuff.

把他們當做投資組合，

So again, financial engineering was helpful here.

然後試著讓所得趨於平緩。

Imagine the megafund starts empty,

因此我們做了點運算，結果是可行的。

and what it does is it issues some debt and some equity,

但是為了讓它可行，

and that generates cash flow.

你需要80到150種藥。

That cash flow is used, then, to buy that big portfolio of drugs that you need,

好消息是，有很多的藥正等著被測試。

and those drugs start working their way through that approval process,

好消息是，有很多的藥正等著被測試。

and each time they go through a phase of approval,

有人告訴我們有積壓了20年的藥等著被測試， 但是卻找不到資金。

they gain value.

有人告訴我們有積壓了20年的藥等著被測試， 但是卻找不到資金。

Most of them don't make it, but a few of them do,

有人告訴我們有累積了20年的藥等著被測試， 但是卻找不到資金。

and with the ones that gain value, you can sell some,

事實上，融資的早期階段

and when you sell them,

也就是第一期測試還有臨床前測試，

you have money to pay the interest on those bonds,

在業界被稱之為死亡幽谷。

but also to fund the next round of trials.

因為這是許多藥物的葬身之地。

It's almost self-funding.

要跨過這道障礙非常困難，

You do that for the course of the transaction,

當然，跨不過這道障礙也就無法前進到下一階段。

and when you're done, you liquidate the portfolio,

我們做了運算，找出了，好

pay back the bonds, and you can give the equity holders a nice return.

嗯，你知道的，你需要大約80到150種藥，

That was the theory, and we talked about it,

嗯，你知道的，你需要大約80到150種藥，

we did a bunch of experiments,

然後我們再做了其它運算，

and then we said, let's really try to test it.

好，那大約需要30到150億的資金。

We spent the next two years doing research.

好，那大約需要30到150億的資金。

We talked to hundreds of experts in drug financing and venture capital.

所以我們為了解決舊的問題， 似乎製造了另外一個問題：

We talked to people who have developed drugs.

所以我們為了解決舊的問題， 似乎製造了另外一個問題：

We talked to pharmaceutical companies.

我們可以降低風險，但現在我們需要很大一筆資金。

We actually looked at the data for drugs,

只有一個地方能拿的到那麼多資金，

over 2,000 drugs that had been approved or denied or withdrawn,

就是資本市場。

and we also ran millions of simulations.

風險投資者沒有那麼多錢， 慈善家沒那麼多錢，

And all that actually took a lot of time.

但是我們得想出辦法讓平常不投資 這類玩意的人們進入資本市場，

But when we were done, we found something that was sort of surprising.

但是我們得想出辦法讓平常不投資 這類玩意的人們並進入資本市場，

It was feasible to structure that fund

並願意投資。

such that when you were done structuring it,

財務工程又再度派上用場了。

you could actually produce low-risk bonds that would be attractive to bond holders,

想像巨額資金從零開始，

that would give you yields of about five to eight percent,

它發出了一些債務以及一些產權，

and you could produce equity

它發出了一些債務以及一些產權，

that would give equity holders about a 12 percent return.

而它們會讓現金流入。

Now those returns aren't going to be attractive to a venture capitalist.

流入的現金會被用來購買你所需要的巨型投資組合，

They want to make those big bets

流入的現金會被用來購買 你所需要的巨型投資組合，

and get those billion dollar payoffs.

藥物也開始進行核准程序

But it turns out there are lots of other folks that would be interested.

藥物也開始進行核准程序

That's right in the investment sweet spot of pension funds and 401(k) plans

每次進到核准的下一階段，

and all this other stuff.

藥物都會增值。

So we published some articles in the academic press,

它們大部分撐不到最後，

in medical journals, in finance journals.

但是有一些會，

But it wasn't until we actually got the popular press interested in this

而你可以賣掉一些增值的藥物，

that we began to get some traction.

你賣掉它們的同時，

We wanted to do more than just make people aware of it.

就可以用這些錢來償還債券利息，

We wanted people to get involved.

而且還有錢可以支付下一輪的試驗。

So we took all of our computer code and made that available online

完全的自給自足。

under an open-source license to anybody that wanted it.

你會在交易的過程中這麼做，

And you guys can download it today

完成了之後你就可以清算這個投資組合，

if you want to run your own experiments to see if this would work.

清償債券，而你可以

And that was really effective,

給股東們一筆大回報。

because people that didn't believe our assumptions

以上就是這個理論，我們為此進行過一些討論，

could try their own and see how it would work.

我們做了一堆的實驗，

Now there's an obvious problem, which is,

我們的結論是，實際測試看看吧。

is there enough money in the world to fund this?

我們花了接下來的兩年做研究。

I've told you there's enough drugs, but is there enough money?

我們和數百位藥物財務以及風險投資專家談過。

There's 100 trillion dollars of capital

我們和數百位藥物財務以及風險投資專家談過。

currently invested in fixed-income securities.

我們和藥物研發人員談過。

That's a hundred thousand billion.

我們和藥廠談過。

There's plenty of money.

我們親自看過藥物的資料，

(Laughter)

超過2000種被核准、拒絕或中途退出的藥，

But we realized it's more than just money that's required.

超過2000種被核准、拒絕或中途退出的藥，

We had to get people motivated, involved,

我們也跑過數百萬次的模擬。

and get them to understand this.

這些全都要花很多時間。

And we started thinking about all the different things that could go wrong.

但當我們完成的時候，發現了相當令人驚訝的事。

What are all the challenges that might get in the way?

如此建構資金是可行的 --

And we had a long list.

當你完成建構的同時，

We assigned a bunch of people, including ourselves,

你也就製造了會吸引持有人的低風險債券。

different pieces of this problem.

你也就製造了會吸引持有人的低風險債券。

And we said, could you start a work stream on credit risk?

你會得到5％到8％的收益，

Could you start a work stream on the regulatory aspects?

你也會製造能夠給予股東大約12%回報的產權。

Could you start a work stream on how you would manage so many projects?

你也會製造能夠給予股東大約12%回報的產權。

And we had all these experts get together and do these different work streams,

這些回報不足以吸引風險投資人，

and then we held a conference.

這些回報不足以吸引風險投資人，

The conference was held over this past summer.

風險投資人喜歡砸重本來獲取數十億的利潤。

It was an invitation-only conference.

風險投資人喜歡砸重本來獲取數十億的利潤。

It was sponsored by the American Cancer Society

但事實證明，還是有很多人很有興趣，

and done in collaboration with the National Cancer Institute.

這完全命中養老基金、401(k)退休福利計劃 還有其他東西的甜蜜點。

We had experts from every field we thought would be important,

這完全命中養老基金、401(k)退休福利計劃 還有其他東西的甜蜜點。

including the government, and people that run research centers,