they obviously found this amazing tropical forest.

當葡萄牙人 500 年前 到達美洲大陸時，

And among all this biodiversity that they had never seen before,

很顯然，他們發現了 這神奇的熱帶雨林。

they found one species that caught their attention very quickly.

他們從未經歷的生物多樣性中，

This species, when you cut the bark, you find a very dark red resin

有一種植物很快的引起了他們的注意力。

that was very good to paint and dye fabric to make clothes.

當你切開它的樹皮， 會得到一種暗紅色的樹脂

The indigenous people called this species pau brasil,

它是製作布料染色劑的上佳原料。

and that's the reason why this land became "land of Brasil," and later on, Brazil.

土著叫它“巴西木”，

That's the only country in the world that has the name of a tree.

這也是為何這個國家成為“巴西之地”， 也就是後來的“巴西”。

So you can imagine that it's very cool to be a forester in Brazil,

“巴西”成為了世界上 唯一以樹為名的國家。

among other reasons.

你可以想像，在巴西， 做一個護林員是很酷的，

Forest products are all around us.

這只是眾多原因中的一個。

Apart from all those products,

林產品在我們周圍隨處可見。

the forest is very important for climate regulation.

除了這些產品，森林對氣候調節 起到非常重要作用。

In Brazil, almost 70 percent of the evaporation that makes rain

在巴西，構成雨的70%的水蒸氣

actually comes from the forest.

實際上來自於森林。

Just the Amazon pumps to the atmosphere 20 billion tons of water every day.

僅亞馬遜雨林每天 就向大氣蒸發 200 億噸水。

This is more than what the Amazon River, which is the largest river in the world,

這比亞馬遜河，世界上最大的河，

puts in the sea per day, which is 17 billion tons.

每天注入大海的水 170 億噸還要多，

If we had to boil water to get the same effect as evapotranspiration,

如果我們需要通過燒水 來達到同樣的蒸發量，

we would need six months of the entire power generation capacity of the world.

我們需要六個月的全球發電總量。

So it's a hell of a service for all of us.

所以森林對我們來說立下汗馬功勞。

We have in the world about four billion hectares of forests.

全世界大概有四十億公頃森林。

This is more or less China, U.S., Canada and Brazil all together,

這大概是中國、美國、 加拿大和巴西的總和，

in terms of size, to have an idea.

面積上的話，基本是這麼個概念。

Three quarters of that is in the temperate zone,

其中四分之三是在溫帶，

and just one quarter is in the tropics,

僅僅四分之一在熱帶。

but this one quarter, one billion hectares, holds most of the biodiversity,

但就是這四分之一，十億公頃， 擁有最豐富的生物多樣性，

and very importantly, 50 percent of the living biomass, the carbon.

非常重要的是，其中包括了 構成活生物質 50％ 的碳。

Now, we used to have six billion hectares of forest --

我們曾有 60 億公頃的森林，

50 percent more than what we have -- 2,000 years ago.

比我們現在多 50％ ﹣ 在 2000 年以前。

We've actually lost two billion hectares in the last 2,000 years.

在過去的 2000 年裡， 我們總共失去了 20 億公頃。

But in the last 100 years, we lost half of that.

但是在最近的 100 年裡， 我們失去了其中的一半。

That was when we shifted from deforestation of temperate forests

與此同時當我們把森林砍伐 從溫帶轉向為熱帶。

to deforestation of tropical forests.

大家想一想：在 100 年裡，

So think of this: In 100 years,

我們失去的熱帶森林

we lost the same amount of forest in the tropics

和我們在 2000 年裡 失去的溫帶森林一樣多。

that we lost in 2,000 years in temperate forests.

這就是我們破壞的速度。

That's the speed of the destruction that we are having.

現在，巴西是解決 這個問題關鍵的一環。

Now, Brazil is an important piece of this puzzle.

我們有僅次於俄羅斯的 第二大森林覆蓋率，

We have the second largest forest in the world, just after Russia.

這意味著全世界 12％ 的森林在巴西，

It means 12 percent of all the world's forests are in Brazil,

這些絕大部分在亞馬遜。

most of that in the Amazon.

這是非常大的一塊森林， 非常廣闊的範圍。

It's the largest piece of forest we have. It's a very big, large area.

你可以把很多歐洲國家放到這裡面。

You can see that you could fit many of the European countries there.

我們仍有 80％ 的森林覆蓋率。

We still have 80 percent of the forest cover.

這是好消息。

That's the good news.

但是我們在 30 年裡失去了 15％。

But we lost 15 percent in just 30 years.

按照個速度，用不了不久，

So if you go with that speed,

我們就會失去亞馬遜 這個氣候調節的天然泵。

very soon, we will loose this powerful pump that we have in the Amazon

從 90 年代末，2000 年初， 森林破壞的速度很快而且在加速

that regulates our climate.

（鋸子聲）

Deforestation was growing fast and accelerating

（樹倒下的聲音）

at the end of the '90s and the beginning of the 2000s.

每年 27000 平方公里，

(Chainsaw sound)

也就是 270 萬公頃。

(Sound of falling tree)

相當於每年失去半個 哥斯大黎加這麼大的森林。

Twenty-seven thousand square kilometers in one year.

在這個時候 ﹣ 這是 2003，2004 ﹣

This is 2.7 million hectares.

我碰巧在政府就職。

It's almost like half of Costa Rica every year.

和其他國家林業部的隊友，

So at this moment -- this is 2003, 2004 --

我們被分配到一個小組 去探究森林破壞的原因，

I happened to be coming to work in the government.

並且制定一個全國性戰略改革計劃，

And together with other teammates in the National Forest Department,

在當地政，民間組織，

we were assigned a task to join a team and find out the causes of deforestation,

商業團體，地方社區的

and make a plan to combat that at a national level,

共同努力解決這些問題。

involving the local governments, the civil society,

我們在不同層面上 提出了144條方案。

business, local communities,

現在我逐一講解 ﹣

in an effort that could tackle those causes.

開玩笑，只是舉例說說 我們接下來幾年的一些舉措。

So we came up with this plan with 144 actions in different areas.

首先，我們和國家航天局 共同建立了一個系統，

Now I will go through all of them one by one --

可以監測到哪裡的森林正在破壞，

no, just giving some examples of what we had done in the next few years.

幾乎是即時的。

So the first thing, we set up a system with the national space agency

現在在巴西，我們有 DETER 系統，

that could actually see where deforestation is happening,

每個月，或者每兩個月，

almost in real time.

我們得到森林破壞情況的數據

So now in Brazil, we have this system, DETER,

從而在破壞發生時做出反應。

where every month, or every two months,

這些信息全部是公開透明的

we get information on where deforestation is happening

所以其他人可以複製到其他獨立系統。

so we can actually act when it's happening.

這讓我們得以扣押通過非法途徑 採伐的 140 萬立方米木料。

And all the information is fully transparent

其中的一部分我們鋸開售賣， 全部收入歸入一個基金，

so others can replicate that in independent systems.

用於資助當地保護項目。

This allows us, among other things,

這使得我們有更大的行動力，

to apprehend 1.4 million cubic meters of logs that were illegally taken.

來緝獲腐敗和違法行為，

Part of that we saw and sell, and all the revenue becomes a fund

直接導致 700 人入獄， 甚至包括不少公職人員。

that now funds conservation projects of local communities as an endowment fund.

接下來，通過連帶關係 我們使非法開採的地區

This also allows us to make a big operation

無法得到信貸和財政資助，

to seize corruption and illegal activities

通過銀行系統，把它與終端用戶相連。

that ended up having 700 people in prison, including a lot of public servants.

超市，屠宰場，等等。

Then we made the connection that areas that have been doing

只要向保護區購買林產品，

illegal deforestation should not get any kind of credit or finance.

他們也會被追責。

So we cut this through the bank system and then linked this to the end users.

所以連帶追責對問題的改善 起到了一定效果。

So supermarkets, the slaughterhouses, and so on

同時我們在土地使用權的問題上 採取了很多工作。

that buy products from illegal clear-cut areas,

這對解決爭端意義重大。

they also can be liable for the deforestation.

我們創造了 5000 萬公頃的保護用地，

So making all these connections to help to push the problem down.

大約是一個西班牙的面積。

And also we work a lot on land tenure issues.

其中 800 萬公頃是土著土地。

It's very important for conflicts.

我們看到一些成效。

Fifty million hectares of protected areas were created,

過去的十年裡，

which is an area the size of Spain.

巴西的森林退化減低了 75％。

And of those, eight million were indigenous lands.

（掌聲）

Now we start to see results.

如果把平均退化率的數值進行比較

So in the last 10 years,

跟過去十年的話，

deforestation came down in Brazil 75 percent.

我們拯救了 870 萬公頃的森林， 相當於奧地利的面積。

(Applause)

更重要的是，這減少了大氣中

So if we compare it with the average deforestation

30 億噸二氧化碳排放量。

that we had in the last decade,

這是至今為止對於溫室氣體減排

we saved 8.7 million hectares, which is the size of Austria.

起到積極效應的一個最重要的舉措。

But more importantly, it avoided the emission

有人擔憂，當我們採取這些 減少和遏制採伐的措施時，

of three billion tons of CO2 in the atmosphere.

經濟會受到影響。

This is by far the largest contribution to reduce greenhouse gas emissions,

因為你將無法開展一些經濟活動。

until today, as a positive action.

但有趣的是，事實恰恰相反。

One may think that when you do these kinds of actions

事實上，在森林破壞最迅速的那段時期，

to decrease, to push down deforestation,

經濟增長平均達到了過去十年的一倍。

you will have an economic impact

這給我們上了一課。

because you will not have economic activity or something like that.

或許它們毫無關聯，

But it's interesting to know that it's quite the opposite.

恰巧發生在採伐量下降的時期。

In fact, in the period when we have the deepest decline of deforestation,

目前全都是好消息，大成就，

the economy grew, on average, double from the previous decade,

我們顯然應該為此感到驕傲。

when deforestation was actually going up.

但是這遠不夠。

So it's a good lesson for us.

事實上，當你想想亞馬遜 2013 年的砍伐量，

Maybe this is completely disconnected,

超過 50 萬公頃，

as we just learned by having deforestation come down.

這意味著每一分鐘，

Now this is all good news, and it's quite an achievement,

就有兩片足球場大小的森林遭到破壞，

and we obviously should be very proud about that.

去年，就在去年。

But it's not even close to sufficient.

如果把巴西其他 生態群落的砍伐量相加

In fact, if you think about the deforestation in the Amazon in 2013,

我們得到的依舊是全世界 最大的森林破壞率。

that was over half a million hectares,

這大概是說，我們既是森林的守護神，

which means that every minute,

同時又是森林的劊子手。

an area the size of two soccer fields

所以我們不敢自滿，遠不能自滿。

is being cut in the Amazon last year, just last year.

所以下一步，我認為，

If we sum up the deforestation we have in the other biomes in Brazil,

是爭取在2020年， 目標達到巴西境內森林零砍伐。

we are talking about still the largest deforestation rate in the world.

這是我們下一步計劃。

It's more or less like we are forest heroes,

現在我著迷於這種 氣候改變與森林間的關係。

but still deforestation champions.

首先，因為 15％ 的溫室 氣體排放來源於森林砍伐，

So we can't be satisfied, not even close to satisfied.

所以這是問題的一個重要部分。

So the next step, I think,

但同時，森林也是解決方案的 一個重要部分，

is to fight to have zero loss of forest cover in Brazil

正因我們所知的最有效解決方案 就是沉積，捕捉，儲存碳。

and to have that as a goal for 2020.

現在，氣候和森林有了另一關係

That's our next step.

在 2008 年引起我深思， 並因此讓我的職業跑道

Now I've always been interested in the relationship

從森林轉向為氣候變化。

between climate change and forests.

我去訪問了加拿大，在英屬哥倫比亞，

First, because 15 percent of greenhouse gas emissions come from deforestation,

同其他同盟國的林業部門長官，

so it's a big part of the problem.

比如加拿大，俄羅斯，印度，中國，美國。

But also, forests can be a big part of the solution

在那我們認識了 啃噬森林的松樹甲蟲。

since that's the best way we know to sink, capture and store carbon.

我們在這看到的，這些棕黃色的， 都是枯死的樹。

Now, there is another relationship of climate and forests

就因為這些甲蟲幼蟲。

that really stuck me in 2008 and made me change my career

事實是這些甲蟲 受冬季寒冷的天氣控制。

from forests to working with climate change.

但在多年裡，我們都沒有夠多的寒冬

I went to visit Canada, in British Columbia,

來控制甲蟲的數量。

together with the chiefs of the forest services of other countries

然而這衍生為一種病害， 數億植株遭到滅頂之災。

that we have a kind of alliance of them, like Canada, Russia, India, China, U.S.

所以回來以後我產生了一個概念：

And when we were there we learned about this pine beetle

森林事實上是氣候改變的 最初受害者之一。

that is literally eating the forests in Canada.

我想，即使我能與同僚們 成功地抑制森林退化，

What we see here, those brown trees, these are really dead trees.

或許今後我們也將 在氣候改變的PK中，

They are standing dead trees because of the larvae of the beetle.

也將成為洪水，炎熱，烈火等 其他災害的手下敗將。

What happens is that this beetle

所以我決定離開林業局

is controlled by the cold weather in the winter.

直接致力於氣候改變的工作，

For many years now, they don't have the sufficient cold weather

找到一種方式來思考和理解 所面臨的挑戰，並從此出發。

to actually control the population of this beetle.

現在，氣候改變的挑戰非常明瞭。

And it became a disease that is really killing billions of trees.

目標也很明確。

So I came back with this notion that the forest is actually

我們希望全球平均氣溫的升高

one of the earliest and most affected victims of climate change.

控制在 2℃ 之內。

So I was thinking,

這有很多原因，

if I succeed in working with all my colleagues

我現在先不詳談。

to actually help to stop deforestation,

但為了爭取這 2℃ 的限制 ﹣

maybe we will lose the battle later on for climate change

也就為我們贏得了生存空間，

by floods, heat, fires and so on.

IPCC ﹣ 政府間氣候變化專門委員會，

So I decided to leave the forest service

限定說到本世紀末， 二氧化碳排放量配額在 10000 億噸。

and start to work directly on climate change,

分配到每年，

find a way to think and understand the challenge, and go from there.

我們可以平均排放 110 億的二氧化碳。

Now, the challenge of climate change is pretty straightforward.

那麼一噸的二氧化碳有多少呢？

The goal is very clear.

大概是一輛小車每天跑 20 千米，

We want to limit the increase of the average temperature

一年的排放量。

of the planet to two degrees.

或者是一趟航班，

There are several reasons for that.

從聖保羅到約翰內斯堡， 或者倫敦，單程的排放量。

I will not get into that now.

往返，兩噸。

But in order to get to this limit of two degrees,

所以說 110 億是 我們當下年排放量的兩倍，

which is possible for us to survive,

我們當今的排放量 500 億噸， 還在持續增長。

the IPCC, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,

可能在 2020 年達到 610 億噸。

defines that we have a budget of emissions of 1,000 billion tons of CO2

我們需要在 2050 年前 把它降低到 100 億。

from now until the end of the century.

與此同時，

So if we divide this by the number of years,

全球人口將從現在的 70 億 增長到 90 億，

what we have is an average budget of 11 billion tons of CO2 per year.

經濟將從 2010 年的 60 兆 增長到 200 兆。

Now what is one ton of CO2?

所以我們需要更有效率地

It's more or less what one small car, running 20 kilometers a day,

把人均二氧化碳排放量從 7 噸 降低到每人、每年差不多 1 噸。

will emit in one year.

我們必須做出選擇。 你是搭乘飛機呢，還是擁有汽車。

Or it's one flight, one way,

問題是，我們做的到嗎？

from São Paulo to Johannesburg or to London, one way.

這也是當我制定反森林破壞計劃時 碰到的一個同樣的問題。

Two ways, two tons.

問題如此龐大，如此複雜。 我們可以做到嗎？

So 11 billion tons is twice that.

我認為可以。

Now the emissions today are 50 billion tons, and it's growing.

試想：森林退化造成了過去十年裡 巴西 60％ 的溫室氣體排放。

It's growing and maybe it will be 61 by 2020.

這個數字現在不到 30％。

Now we need to go down to 10 by 2050.

而當今，60％ 多的排放源自能源。

And while this happens,

如果我們直接從能源入手，

the population will grow from seven to nine billion people,

以同樣方式對付森林破壞的方式，

the economy will grow from 60 trillion dollars in 2010

我們可能會有希望。

to 200 trillion dollars.

所以我們可以做的有五點：

And so what we need to do is to be much more efficient

首先，我們應該把發展 和二氧化碳的聯繫斷開。

in a way that we can go from seven tons of carbon per capita

我們並不需要通過砍伐森林

per person, per year, into something like one.

來創造工作，農業或者商業利益。

You have to choose. You take the airplane or you have a car.

我們在降低森林砍伐率的同時 就已經證明了經濟可以持續增長。

So the question is, can we make it?

能源方面也是如此。

And that's the exactly the same question

第二，我們必須把激勵給正確的地方。

I got when I was developing a plan to combat deforestation.

今天，一年有 5 千億元被用於 對化石燃料的補貼。

It's such a big problem, so complex. Can we really do it?

為什麼不在碳上漲價， 貼補給可再生能源？

I think so. Think of this:

第三，我們需要監測並發布

Deforestation means 60 percent of the greenhouse gas emissions

誰在哪裡，什麼時間，排放了溫室氣體，

in Brazil in the last decade.

我們得以有針對性地 對每一次行為作出反應。

Now it's a little bit less than 30 percent.

第四，我們需要跳躍式發展前進，

In the world, 60 percent is energy.

這意味著，我們不必在得到手機前 一定先裝個固定電話。

So if we can tackle directly the energy,

同樣，尚未使用能源的10億人口 也不需要先經過化石燃料

the same way we could tackle deforestation,

才能享用清潔能源。

maybe we can have a chance.

第五點，也是最後一點，

So there are five things that I think we should do.

我們需要和不同的政府， 商業，民政組織分擔責任。

First, we need to disconnect development from carbon emissions.

每個人都肩負使命， 我們需要大家攜手前行。

We don't need to clear-cut all the forests to actually get more jobs

最後，我相信未來並非一場宿命，

and agriculture and have more economy.

一場商業世界你不得不遵循的宿命。

That's what we proved when we decreased deforestation

我們需要勇氣打破常規， 擁抱新的理念，

and the economy continued to grow.

我們需要認識到 我們有能力改變常規。

Same thing could happen in the energy sector.

解決巴西森林退化的問題， 我們已經做到了。

Second, we have to move the incentives to the right place.

我希望，應對全球氣候變化的挑戰， 我們也能辦到。

Today, 500 billion dollars a year goes into subsidies for fossil fuels.

謝謝大家。