they only do more of the same,

公司失敗有兩個原因：

or they only do what's new.

他們老做同樣的事情

To me the real, real solution to quality growth

或者他們只做最新的事情。

is figuring out the balance between two activities:

對我來說，真正高品質的企業成長方案

exploration and exploitation.

是找出以下兩種活動之間的平衡：

Both are necessary,

探索與開發。

but it can be too much of a good thing.

這兩者都是必要的，

Consider Facit.

但太多又不一定是好事。

I'm actually old enough to remember them.

想想辦公室產品 製造商 Facit 公司，

Facit was a fantastic company.

其實我算老了，所以還記得他們。

They were born deep in the Swedish forest,

Facit 是一間很棒的公司。

and they made the best mechanical calculators in the world.

他們在瑞典的森林深處誕生，

Everybody used them.

他們曾生產全世界 最好的機械式計算機。

And what did Facit do when the electronic calculator came along?

大家都用他們的計算機。

They continued doing exactly the same.

但當電子式計算機來臨時， Facit 做了什麼改變？

In six months, they went from maximum revenue ...

他們繼續做一樣的事。

and they were gone.

在半年內，他們從 最高營業額一路下滑，

Gone.

直到公司倒了。

To me, the irony about the Facit story

消失了。

is hearing about the Facit engineers,

對我來說，Facit 故事最諷刺的

who had bought cheap, small electronic calculators in Japan

是聽說 Facit 工程師

that they used to double-check their calculators.

在日本買便宜的小型電子計算機

(Laughter)

來驗算他們自己的計算機。

Facit did too much exploitation.

（笑聲）

But exploration can go wild, too.

Facit 太注重產品開發了。

A few years back,

但探索過多偶爾也會失控。

I worked closely alongside a European biotech company.

幾年前，

Let's call them OncoSearch.

我與一家歐洲的生物科技公司合作。

The company was brilliant.

讓我們暫且稱呼它為 OncoSearch 吧。

They had applications that promised to diagnose, even cure,

這家公司非常卓越。

certain forms of blood cancer.

他們有保證能診斷出、甚至治療好

Every day was about creating something new.

幾種血癌的方法。

They were extremely innovative,

他們每天都在創造新的東西，

and the mantra was, "When we only get it right,"

相當有創新的能力。

or even, "We want it perfect."

公司的宗旨是： 「我們不只要把事情做對，

The sad thing is,

我們甚至要做到完美。」

before they became perfect --

然而不幸的是，

even good enough --

在他們成為完美之前──

they became obsolete.

甚至還不算好時──

OncoSearch did too much exploration.

他們已經被淘汰了。

I first heard about exploration and exploitation about 15 years ago,

OncoSearch 太過於注重探索了。

when I worked as a visiting scholar at Stanford University.

我第一次聽到「探索」和「開發」 這兩種不同的概念，

The founder of the idea is Jim March.

是在大概15年前，我在史丹佛大學 擔任客座學者時。

And to me the power of the idea is its practicality.

吉姆．瑪馳首先提出了這個想法。

Exploration.

對我來說，這個想法 最厲害的地方是，它相當實用。

Exploration is about coming up with what's new.

探索。

It's about search,

探索是一個想出新東西的過程。

it's about discovery,

它和搜索有關，

it's about new products,

和發現有關，

it's about new innovations.

和新產品有關，

It's about changing our frontiers.

和新發明有關，

Our heroes are people who have done exploration:

和改變我們所知的領域有關。

Madame Curie,

我們的英雄都是那些探索：

Picasso,

居禮夫人、

Neil Armstrong,

畢卡索、

Sir Edmund Hillary, etc.

尼爾．阿姆斯壯、

I come from Norway;

艾德蒙．希拉里爵士等等。

all our heroes are explorers, and they deserve to be.

我來自挪威；

We all know that exploration is risky.

我們所有的英雄都是探索者， 而且他們夠資格被稱為探索者。

We don't know the answers,

我們都知道探索是存在風險的。

we don't know if we're going to find them,

我們不知道答案，

and we know that the risks are high.

我們不清楚是否可以找到答案，

Exploitation is the opposite.

所以我們知道風險很大。

Exploitation is taking the knowledge we have

開發則正好相反，

and making good, better.

開發是利用我們現有的知識

Exploitation is about making our trains run on time.

然後把東西變得更好。

It's about making good products faster and cheaper.

開發就像如何讓火車準點出發，

Exploitation is not risky --

或是產出更快、更便宜的優良產品。

in the short term.

短時間內，開發的風險並不大，

But if we only exploit,

但是如果我們只著重在開發，

it's very risky in the long term.

長期來說風險就很大了。

And I think we all have memories of the famous pop groups

我想我們都認識一些知名流行樂團，

who keep singing the same songs again and again,

他們一直唱著一樣的歌， 周而復始地唱，

until they become obsolete or even pathetic.

直到他們過時甚至有點悲慘為止。

That's the risk of exploitation.

這就是過度開發的風險。

So if we take a long-term perspective, we explore.

所以，以長遠的角度來看， 我們要探索，

If we take a short-term perspective, we exploit.

以短時間而言，我們要開發。

Small children, they explore all day.

小孩天天都在探索新的事物，

All day it's about exploration.

整天都在探索，

As we grow older,

而當我們漸漸長大，

we explore less because we have more knowledge to exploit on.

學到了更多開發的知識， 就越來越少探索了。

The same goes for companies.

對於公司來說也一樣。

Companies become, by nature, less innovative

當公司變得越來越有競爭力時，

as they become more competent.

自然就會減少了探索。

And this is, of course, a big worry to CEOs.

當然，這對執行長來說 是令他們相當擔心的事情。

And I hear very often questions phrased in different ways.

我常常聽到各式各樣的類似問題。

For example,

舉個例子，

"How can I both effectively run and reinvent my company?"

「我要如何同時有效地經營 並重新改造我的公司？」

Or, "How can I make sure

或者，「我怎樣才能確保

that our company changes before we become obsolete

我的公司在被淘汰或危機來臨之前， 已做好了改變呢？」

or are hit by a crisis?"

所以，做好其中一項已經很困難了，

So, doing one well is difficult.

要同時推動探索和開發， 並把兩項都做好根本就是一門藝術。

Doing both well as the same time is art --

我們觀察到，

pushing both exploration and exploitation.

大約只有 2% 的公司， 有能力同時進行有效的探索和開發。

So one thing we've found

但他們一旦達到，

is only about two percent of companies are able to effectively explore

就可以收到豐厚的回報。

and exploit at the same time, in parallel.

我們有很多這樣的例子。

But when they do,

例如雀巢公司創造了 Nespresso 膠囊咖啡機，

the payoffs are huge.

樂高公司進入動畫電影領域，

So we have lots of great examples.

豐田公司生產油電混合車，

We have Nestlé creating Nespresso,

聯合利華推動永續生活計劃，

we have Lego going into animated films,

這樣的例子還有很多， 也都帶來很大的利益。

Toyota creating the hybrids,

但為什麼兩者之間的平衡這麼困難呢？

Unilever pushing into sustainability --

我認為原因是有很多陷阱，

there are lots of examples, and the benefits are huge.

讓我們一直故步自封。

Why is balancing so difficult?

我們等等會談到其中兩個， 但其實還有很多。

I think it's difficult because there are so many traps

所以，讓我們來談談 「不斷搜索」這個陷阱。

that keep us where we are.

我們發現了新東西，

So I'll talk about two, but there are many.

但我們沒有足夠的耐心或者毅力

So let's talk about the perpetual search trap.

去把事情做好、做對。

We discover something,

於是我們又去創造新東西， 而不是去深入研究它。

but we don't have the patience or the persistence

但周而復始，又做一樣的事情，

to get at it and make it work.

然後陷入一種

So instead of staying with it, we create something new.

「一直有新發現，卻很無力」 的惡性循環中。

But the same goes for that,

OncoSearch 就是個很好的例子。

then we're in the vicious circle

另一個很有名的例子， 當然，就是全錄公司了。

of actually coming up with ideas but being frustrated.

但是這現象不只出現在公司裡。

OncoSearch was a good example.

我們在公眾領域上也看到同樣的狀況。

A famous example is, of course, Xerox.

我們都知道，任何有效的改革方式，

But we don't only see this in companies.

無論在教育、研究、 醫療照顧、甚至國防上

We see this in the public sector as well.

都至少要10~15，甚至20年才能奏效。

We all know that any kind of effective reform of education,

但儘管如此，我們還是一變再變。

research, health care, even defense,

我們並沒有真正給它們機會。

takes 10, 15, maybe 20 years to work.

另外一個陷阱是「成功的陷阱」。

But still, we change much more often.

Facit 公司掉入了成功的陷阱，

We really don't give them the chance.

他們明明已經掌握了未來，卻看不到。

Another trap is the success trap.

他們對喜歡做的事情相當在行，

Facit fell into the success trap.

所以不願意改變。

They literally held the future in their hands,

我們也是這樣，

but they couldn't see it.

當我們對一件事相當在行時， 想改變就變困難了。

They were simply so good at making what they loved doing,

比爾蓋茲曾經說過：

that they wouldn't change.

「成功是個差勁的老師，

We are like that, too.

它誘使我們認為，我們不能失敗。」

When we know something well, it's difficult to change.

這就是成功帶來的挑戰。

Bill Gates has said:

所以我認為這其中有許多課題 可以讓我們學習

"Success is a lousy teacher.

並運用在公司上。

It seduces us into thinking we cannot fail."

第一課是：在危機到來前， 先做好打算。

That's the challenge with success.

公司如果有能力創新

So I think there are some lessons, and I think they apply to us.

其實就等於有能力幫自己的未來買保險。

And they apply to our companies.

Netflix 本可輕易滿足於 早期的通路經銷，

The first lesson is: get ahead of the crisis.

但他們總是──我想未來也會是──

And any company that's able to innovate

不斷地接受挑戰。

is actually able to also buy an insurance in the future.

我聽到一些其他公司說：

Netflix -- they could so easily have been content

「我將不計代價， 在下個週期的創新中贏得勝利」。

with earlier generations of distribution,

第二課：思考不同的時程表，

but they always -- and I think they will always --

我想分享一張圖表給各位，

keep pushing for the next battle.

我覺得這張圖表很棒。

I see other companies that say,

任何一家我們關注的公司，

"I'll win the next innovation cycle, whatever it takes."

從一年的角度

Second one: think in multiple time scales.

來評估公司價值時，

I'll share a chart with you,

創新能力通常只佔 30%，

and I think it's a wonderful one.

所以當我們只注重 「一個年度表現」的時候，

Any company we look at,

創新並不那麼重要。

taking a one-year perspective

接著看，同樣的公司， 拉長到「十年」來看，

and looking at the valuation of the company,

突然間，創新和改革能力就占了 70%。

innovation typically accounts for only about 30 percent.

但公司別無選擇，

So when we think one year,

他們必須投資在這趟旅程中， 才能長期領先。

innovation isn't really that important.

第三課：

Move ahead, take a 10-year perspective on the same company --

招募人才。

suddenly, innovation and ability to renew account for 70 percent.

我不認為

But companies can't choose.

我們之中任何一個人可以獨自 在探索和開發之間尋找到平衡。

They need to fund the journey and lead the long term.

我認為這是一項團隊運動，

Third:

我認為我們必須允許挑戰的到來。

invite talent.

我認為願意接受挑戰 就是一間卓越公司的標誌。

I don't think it's possible for any of us

而能夠提出建設性的挑戰， 則是優秀董事會成員的標誌。

to be able to balance exploration and exploitation by ourselves.

我認為就像好的父母親 該有的標準一樣。

I think it's a team sport.

最後一課：對成功心存懷疑。

I think we need to allow challenging.

回想古羅馬時代的勝利遊行也許有用，

I think the mark of a great company is being open to be challenged,

當將軍取得一場大勝，

and the mark of a good corporate board is to constructively challenge.

準備接受慶祝時，

I think that's also what good parenting is about.

他們坐在馬車上準備進入羅馬，

Last one: be skeptical of success.

身邊總會有人在耳邊小聲提醒他們：

Maybe it's useful to think back at the old triumph marches in Rome,

「別忘了，你只是個平常人而已。」

when the generals, after a big victory,

所以我希望我有說到重點：

were given their celebration.

取得探索和開發之間的平衡

Riding into Rome on the carriage,

會為你帶來巨大的回報。

they always had a companion whispering in their ear,

但我們也要了解這個過程並不容易。

"Remember, you're only human."

我想提出兩個我認為很有用的問題，

So I hope I made the point:

第一個問題是：看看你自己的公司。

balancing exploration and exploitation

在哪些方面你覺得公司可能有風險

has a huge payoff.

會掉入「滿足於既有成功」的陷阱裡，

But it's difficult, and we need to be conscious.

或者讓公司就這樣自然前進？

I want to just point out two questions that I think are useful.

你又可以做些什麼來挑戰這一切？

First question is, looking at your own company:

第二個問題是：

In which areas do you see that the company is at the risk

我上次探索新事物時，

of falling into success traps,

我得到了什麽啟發？

of just going on autopilot?

這是我該更加努力的事嗎？

And what can you do to challenge?

對我來說，答案是肯定的。

Second question is:

最後我想提醒各位，

When did I explore something new last,

無論你生來就是一位探索者，

and what kind of effect did it have on me?

還是傾向於專心開發 你所知道的事情，

Is that something I should do more of?

別忘了：美麗就在平衡中。

In my case, yes.

謝謝各位。

So let me leave you with this.

（掌聲）

Whether you're an explorer by nature

or whether you tend to exploit what you already know,

don't forget: the beauty is in the balance.

Thank you.

(Applause)