with trepidation and dread.

許多人每天早上起床看新聞時，

Every day, we read of shootings,

總帶著不安和恐懼的心情。

inequality, pollution, dictatorship,

每天，我們都會獲悉關於槍擊、

war and the spread of nuclear weapons.

不平等、污染、獨裁、

These are some of the reasons

戰爭，以及核武散布的資訊。

that 2016 was called the "Worst. Year. Ever."

2016 年之所以被稱為

Until 2017 claimed that record --

「史上最糟的一年」背後是有原因的。

(Laughter)

直到 2017 年又更勝一籌 搶下這頭銜──

and left many people longing for earlier decades,

（笑聲）

when the world seemed safer, cleaner and more equal.

讓許多人渴望能回到早期的年代，

But is this a sensible way to understand the human condition

回到世界似乎比較安全、 比較乾淨，且比較平等的年代。

in the 21st century?

但在 21 世紀，用這樣的方式

As Franklin Pierce Adams pointed out,

來了解人類的條件，合理嗎？

"Nothing is more responsible for the good old days

如富蘭克林·皮爾斯·亞當斯所言：

than a bad memory."

「對於過去的好日子， 最需要負起責任的，

(Laughter)

就是不好的記憶。」

You can always fool yourself into seeing a decline

（笑聲）

if you compare bleeding headlines of the present

你總是可以自欺欺人地看到衰落，

with rose-tinted images of the past.

如果你把當前流血的頭條

What does the trajectory of the world look like

拿來和過去染上玫瑰色的影像相比。

when we measure well-being over time using a constant yardstick?

世界的軌道看起來會是什麼模樣，

Let's compare the most recent data on the present

如果我們用衡常不變的標準 來測量不同時間的幸福指數？

with the same measures 30 years ago.

讓我們拿最近的現代資料

Last year, Americans killed each other at a rate of 5.3 per hundred thousand,

和 30 年前同樣的測量值做比較。

had seven percent of their citizens in poverty

去年，美國人自相殘殺的比率 是每十萬人就有 5.3 人，

and emitted 21 million tons of particulate matter

貧窮公民的比率是 7%，

and four million tons of sulfur dioxide.

排放了 2100 萬噸的微粒狀物質，

But 30 years ago, the homicide rate was 8.5 per hundred thousand,

以及 400 萬噸的二氧化硫。

poverty rate was 12 percent

但 30 年前，謀殺案的比率 為每十萬人有 8.5 人，

and we emitted 35 million tons of particulate matter

貧窮比率則是 12%，

and 20 million tons of sulfur dioxide.

我們排放了 3500 萬噸 微粒狀物質，

What about the world as a whole?

以及 2000 萬噸的二氧化硫。

Last year, the world had 12 ongoing wars,

整個世界的狀況又如何？

60 autocracies,

去年世上有 12 場戰事未歇，

10 percent of the world population in extreme poverty

60 個獨裁政體，

and more than 10,000 nuclear weapons.

世界有 10% 的赤貧人口，

But 30 years ago, there were 23 wars,

和超過一萬件核武。

85 autocracies,

但 30 年前，有 23 場戰爭，

37 percent of the world population in extreme poverty

85 個獨裁政體，

and more than 60,000 nuclear weapons.

37% 的赤貧人口，

True, last year was a terrible year for terrorism in Western Europe,

和超過六萬件核武。

with 238 deaths,

的確，就西歐的恐怖主義來說， 去年是很糟的一年，

but 1988 was worse with 440 deaths.

造成 238 人死亡，

What's going on?

但 1988 年更糟，有 440 人死亡。

Was 1988 a particularly bad year?

怎麼回事？

Or are these improvements a sign that the world, for all its struggles,

1988 年是特別不好的一年嗎？

gets better over time?

或者，這些改善其實是個徵兆， 顯示在所有的困難議題上，

Might we even invoke the admittedly old-fashioned notion of progress?

世界隨時間變得更好？

To do so is to court a certain amount of derision,

是不是甚至能承認，我們符合了 「進步」這個老式觀念呢？

because I have found that intellectuals hate progress.

這麼做，其實會受到相當的嘲笑，

(Laughter)

因為我發現，知識分子討厭進步。

(Applause)

（笑聲）

And intellectuals who call themselves progressive really hate progress.

（掌聲）

(Laughter)

自稱進步分子的知識分子 其實很討厭進步。

Now, it's not that they hate the fruits of progress, mind you.

（笑聲）

Most academics and pundits

請注意，這並不是說 他們討厭進步的果實。

would rather have their surgery with anesthesia than without it.

大部分的學者和權威者在手術時

It's the idea of progress that rankles the chattering class.

偏好用麻醉的還是多於不用麻醉的。

If you believe that humans can improve their lot, I have been told,

是「進步」這個想法 讓這個喋喋不休的階層感到痛苦。

that means that you have a blind faith

有人告訴我，如果相信 人類可以改善命運，

and a quasi-religious belief in the outmoded superstition

那就表示你的信念盲目，

and the false promise of the myth of the onward march

你對過時的迷信有宗教般的信仰，

of inexorable progress.

而且你對未來的進展神話

You are a cheerleader for vulgar American can-doism,

懷抱著虛假的希望。

with the rah-rah spirit of boardroom ideology,

你盲從地喝采 美國通俗的「做得到主義」、

Silicon Valley and the Chamber of Commerce.

會議室的意識形態、

You are a practitioner of Whig history,

矽谷和商會。 （註：對資本主義信仰者的侮辱說法）

a naive optimist, a Pollyanna and, of course, a Pangloss,

你是輝格黨歷史的實踐者、 （註：英國歷史上的一個政黨）

alluding to the Voltaire character who declared,

天真的樂觀者、樂天派， 當然，也是班格羅斯博士，

"All is for the best in the best of all possible worlds."

指的是伏爾泰筆下的角色，他宣稱：

Well, Professor Pangloss, as it happens, was a pessimist.

「在最好的世界中，一切的發生 都是為了最好的結果。」

A true optimist believes there can be much better worlds

好巧不巧，班格羅斯博士 是位悲觀主義者。

than the one we have today.

真正的樂觀主義者相信

But all of this is irrelevant,

有比現今世界好得多的世界存在。

because the question of whether progress has taken place

但這些都不相干，

is not a matter of faith

因為，是否有進步

or having an optimistic temperament or seeing the glass as half full.

並不是信念的問題，

It's a testable hypothesis.

也不是有樂觀性情 或是看到半滿杯子的問題。

For all their differences,

它是個可試驗的假設。

people largely agree on what goes into human well-being:

雖然人的差異很大，

life, health, sustenance, prosperity, peace, freedom, safety, knowledge,

大多數人都同意人類的幸福包括

leisure, happiness.

生命、健康、食物、繁榮、和平、

All of these things can be measured.

自由、安全、知識、休閒、快樂。

If they have improved over time, that, I submit, is progress.

上述這些都是可測量的。

Let's go to the data,

如果它們都隨著時間改善了， 我認為那就是進步。

beginning with the most precious thing of all, life.

讓我們看資料，

For most of human history, life expectancy at birth was around 30.

從當中最珍貴的一項開始：生命。

Today, worldwide, it is more than 70,

人類史上大部分時期 出生時預期的壽命是 30 歲。

and in the developed parts of the world,

今天全世界超過 70 歲，

more than 80.

在世界上已開發的區域，

250 years ago, in the richest countries of the world,

還會超過 80 歲。

a third of the children did not live to see their fifth birthday,

250 年前，在世界上最有錢的國家中，

before the risk was brought down a hundredfold.

三分之一的孩子 沒辦法活到 5 歲生日，

Today, that fate befalls less than six percent of children

後來這個風險數字下降了百倍之多。

in the poorest countries of the world.

現今世界最貧窮的國家

Famine is one of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse.

有這種命運的孩子不到 6%。

It could bring devastation to any part of the world.

饑荒是啟示錄中的四騎士之一。

Today, famine has been banished

它能蹂躪世界上的任何一個區域。

to the most remote and war-ravaged regions.

現今，饑荒已經被流放到

200 years ago, 90 percent of the world's population

最偏遠、被戰爭破壞的地區。

subsisted in extreme poverty.

200 年前，世界人口有 90%

Today, fewer than 10 percent of people do.

過著極度貧窮的生活。

For most of human history,

現今，這樣的人剩下不到 10%。

the powerful states and empires

在人類歷史上大部分時期，

were pretty much always at war with each other,

強大的國家和帝王

and peace was a mere interlude between wars.

總是在彼此交戰，

Today, they are never at war with each other.

和平僅是戰爭間的插曲。

The last great power war

現今，他們都不再打仗了。

pitted the United States against China 65 years ago.

最後一次大型的權力戰爭

More recently, wars of all kinds have become fewer and less deadly.

是 65 年前美國與中國的戰爭。

The annual rate of war has fallen from about 22 per hundred thousand per year

更近期，各種戰爭都變少了， 也不那麼致命。

in the early '50s to 1.2 today.

年戰爭率已經從 50 年代初期的十萬分之 22

Democracy has suffered obvious setbacks

下降到今天的十萬分之 1.2。

in Venezuela, in Russia, in Turkey

民主碰到了很明顯的挫敗，

and is threatened by the rise of authoritarian populism

在委內瑞拉、俄國和土耳其，

in Eastern Europe and the United States.

且受到東歐及美國

Yet the world has never been more democratic

專制民粹主義興起的威脅。

than it has been in the past decade,

然而以前的世界未曾像

with two-thirds of the world's people living in democracies.

過去十年間這麼民主過，

Homicide rates plunge whenever anarchy and the code of vendetta

三分之二的世人活在民主中。

are replaced by the rule of law.

只要無政府狀態和仇殺法 被法治所取代，

It happened when feudal Europe was brought under the control of centralized kingdoms,

謀殺率就會驟降。

so that today a Western European

在封建的歐洲被 中央集權王國控制時發生過，

has 1/35th the chance of being murdered

所以，現今在西歐

compared to his medieval ancestors.

被謀殺的機率，只有中世紀祖先

It happened again in colonial New England,

被謀殺之機率的三十五分之一。

in the American Wild West when the sheriffs moved to town,

同樣的情形在新英格蘭殖民時期、

and in Mexico.

警長進駐小鎮的美國大西部，

Indeed, we've become safer in just about every way.

和墨西哥，也都發生過。

Over the last century, we've become 96 percent less likely

的確，幾乎在每個層面上 我們都比以前更安全。

to be killed in a car crash,

在過去一百年，

88 percent less likely to be mowed down on the sidewalk,

我們因車禍死亡的機率減少了 96%，

99 percent less likely to die in a plane crash,

在人行道上慘死的機率減少了 88%，

95 percent less likely to be killed on the job,

因為墜機而死的機率減少了 99%，

89 percent less likely to be killed by an act of God,

工作時送命的機率減少了 95%，

such as a drought, flood, wildfire, storm, volcano,

因天災而死的機率減少了 89%，

landslide, earthquake or meteor strike,

天災包括旱災、洪水、 野火、暴風、火山、

presumably not because God has become less angry with us

土石流、地震，或隕石墜落，

but because of improvements in the resilience of our infrastructure.

這應該不是因為 上帝對我們不那麼生氣了，

And what about the quintessential act of God,

而是因為改善了基礎建設的韌性。

the projectile hurled by Zeus himself?

那麼，典型的上帝作為呢？

Yes, we are 97 percent less likely to be killed by a bolt of lightning.

宙斯自己猛力投射的攻擊呢？

Before the 17th century,

是的，我們被閃電打中而死的 機率也一樣減少了 97%。

no more than 15 percent of Europeans could read or write.

在 17 世紀之前，

Europe and the United States achieved universal literacy

能讀能寫的歐洲人不到 15%。

by the middle of the 20th century,

歐洲和美國在 20 世紀中期

and the rest of the world is catching up.

達成了全體識字的目標，

Today, more than 90 percent of the world's population

世界其他國家也陸續追了上來。

under the age of 25 can read and write.

現今，世界上 25 歲以下的人口，

In the 19th century, Westerners worked more than 60 hours per week.

超過 90% 都能讀和寫。

Today, they work fewer than 40.

在 19 世紀，西方人每週 要工作超過 60 小時，

Thanks to the universal penetration of running water and electricity

現今則不到 40 小時。

in the developed world

多虧了在已開發世界中

and the widespread adoption of washing machines, vacuum cleaners,

普及的自來水和電力，

refrigerators, dishwashers, stoves and microwaves,

以及被廣泛使用的洗衣機、吸塵器、

the amount of our lives that we forfeit to housework

電冰箱、洗碗機、爐子，和微波爐，

has fallen from 60 hours a week

我們人生中耗費在家事上的時間，

to fewer than 15 hours a week.

從每週 60 小時，

Do all of these gains in health, wealth, safety, knowledge and leisure

落至不到每週 15 小時。

make us any happier?

在健康、財富、安全、 知識，和休閒上的收穫，

The answer is yes.

有讓我們更快樂嗎？

In 86 percent of the world's countries,

答案是，有。

happiness has increased in recent decades.

世界上有 86% 的國家

Well, I hope to have convinced you

在近數十年間，快樂程度都有增加。

that progress is not a matter of faith or optimism,

我希望我已經說服了各位，

but is a fact of human history,

進步並不是信念或樂觀主義的問題，

indeed the greatest fact in human history.

而是人類歷史上的一件事實，

And how has this fact been covered in the news?

可說是人類歷史上最偉大的事實。

(Laughter)

而新聞是怎麼報導這件事實的？

A tabulation of positive and negative emotion words in news stories

（笑聲）

has shown that during the decades in which humanity has gotten healthier,

把新聞報導中用到的正面 和負面情緒用字製成表格，

wealthier, wiser, safer and happier,

就能看出，在人類變得 更健康、更有錢、更聰明、

the "New York Times" has become increasingly morose

更安全，且更快樂的這數十年間，

and the world's broadcasts too have gotten steadily glummer.

《紐約時報》變得越來越陰鬱，

Why don't people appreciate progress?

世界的廣播也都很穩定地 變得越來越悶悶不樂。

Part of the answer comes from our cognitive psychology.

為什麼大家不賞識進步？

We estimate risk using a mental shortcut called the "availability heuristic."

部分答案來自我們的認知心理學。

The easier it is to recall something from memory,

我們用一種叫做「易得性法則」的 心理捷徑來估計風險。

the more probable we judge it to be.

當我們越容易喚起 記憶中的一樣事物時，

The other part of the answer comes from the nature of journalism,

我們就越可能判斷它容易發生。

captured in this satirical headline from "The Onion,"

另一部分答案來自新聞業的天性，

"CNN Holds Morning Meeting to Decide

在這來自《洋蔥報》的 諷刺頭條中就可以看出來：

What Viewers Should Panic About For Rest of Day."

「CNN 開晨間會議來決定

(Laughter)

今天讀者應該要對什麼感到慌張。」

(Applause)

（笑聲）

News is about stuff that happens, not stuff that doesn't happen.

（掌聲）

You never see a journalist who says,

新聞的重點是已發生的事情， 而非沒發生的事情。

"I'm reporting live from a country that has been at peace for 40 years,"

你永遠不會看到一個新聞記者說：

or a city that has not been attacked by terrorists.

「我正在一個已經和平了 40 年的國家做實況報導。」

Also, bad things can happen quickly,

也不會去報導沒有 被恐怖分子攻擊的城市。

but good things aren't built in a day.

此外，壞事的發生可能很快速，

The papers could have run the headline,

但好事不是一天就能建造起來的。

"137,000 people escaped from extreme poverty yesterday"

如果報紙用了這頭條：

every day for the last 25 years.

「昨天 137,000 人脫離赤貧」，

That's one and a quarter billion people leaving poverty behind,

不可能在接下來 25 年 天天都用這頭條。

but you never read about it.

那相當於 12.5 億人脫離貧窮，

Also, the news capitalizes on our morbid interest

但你從來沒有讀過這種報導。

in what can go wrong,

此外，新聞要利用我們想看 事情能怎麼出錯的病態心理，

captured in the programming policy, "If it bleeds, it leads."

「見到血，才能見頭條」 這條節目製作政策很一針見血。

Well, if you combine our cognitive biases with the nature of news,

如果把我們的認知偏見 和新聞的天性結合起來，

you can see why the world has been coming to an end

你就能了解為什麼 長年以來都一直在說

for a very long time indeed.

好像世界末日即將來臨一樣了。

Let me address some questions about progress

無疑地，許多人應該都有一些

that no doubt have occurred to many of you.

關於進步的問題想問， 就讓我來談談。

First, isn't it good to be pessimistic

首先，用悲觀的方式

to safeguard against complacency,

來避免自滿，來揭發不當行為，

to rake the muck, to speak truth to power?

來向當權著說出真相，不好嗎？

Well, not exactly.

嗯，不見得。

It's good to be accurate.

精確是好事。

Of course we should be aware of suffering and danger

當然，我們應該要在 苦難和危險發生時

wherever they occur,

意識到它們的存在，

but we should also be aware of how they can be reduced,

但我們也應該要意識到 如何能減低它們，

because there are dangers to indiscriminate pessimism.

因為不分皂白的悲觀主義是危險的。

One of them is fatalism.

其中一種危險就是宿命論。

If all our efforts at improving the world

若我們投入改善世界的所有努力

have been in vain,

都是白費的，

why throw good money after bad?

為何要再砸錢填補無底洞？

The poor will always be with you.

貧窮永遠會與你同在。

And since the world will end soon --

既然世界末日很快就會來臨──

if climate change doesn't kill us all,

若我們沒有都死於氣候變遷，

then runaway artificial intelligence will --

我們還是會死於失控的人工智能──

a natural response is to enjoy life while we can,

自然的反應就是， 趁還可以時盡量享受人生，

eat, drink and be merry, for tomorrow we die.

去吃喝玩樂，因為我們活不過明天。

The other danger of thoughtless pessimism is radicalism.

輕率的悲觀主義會帶來的 另一種危險就是激進主義。

If our institutions are all failing and beyond hope for reform,

如果我們的制度全都沒有用， 且也沒有改革的希望，

a natural response is to seek to smash the machine,

自然的反應就是要 想辦法砸爛這台機器，

drain the swamp,

把不好的給根除，

burn the empire to the ground,

把整個帝國燒毀，

on the hope that whatever rises out of the ashes

希望不論從灰燼中重生的是什麼，

is bound to be better than what we have now.

都能夠比我們的現況更好。

Well, if there is such a thing as progress,

嗯，如果有「進步」這回事，

what causes it?

是什麼造成進步的？

Progress is not some mystical force or dialectic lifting us ever higher.

進步不是能把我們抬得更高的 神秘力量或辯證法；

It's not a mysterious arc of history bending toward justice.

進步不是歷史的神秘弧形， 朝向正義的方向彎曲；

It's the result of human efforts governed by an idea,

而是由想法支配人類努力的結果，

an idea that we associate with the 18th century Enlightenment,

這想法和 18 世紀啟蒙運動有關，