You're going to see some other speakers today, I already know,

據我所知，今天會有其他講師

who are going to talk about breaking-bones stuff,

談一些傷筋動骨的東西

and, of course, with technology it never is.

不過這在科技界是不會發生的。

So it's very easy, comparatively speaking, to be resilient.

所以相對來說，科技是很容易具有復原能力的。

I think that, if we look at what happened on the Internet,

如果回顧網際網路上發生的事 --

with such an incredible last half a dozen years,

以過去六年來的驚人發展

that it's hard to even get the right analogy for it.

的確很難去找到可以對比的例子。

A lot of how we decide, how we're supposed to react to things

我們如何做決定，如何對事情做出適當的反應

and what we're supposed to expect about the future

跟我們對未來的展望，很多時候

depends on how we bucket things

取決於我們對事物

and how we categorize them.

分門別類的方式。

And so I think the tempting analogy for the boom-bust

所以從我們剛剛經歷這大起大落的網際網路中

that we just went through with the Internet is a gold rush.

我想到一個不盡相同的比喻：淘金熱。

It's easy to think of this analogy as very different

相較其他可能的選擇

from some of the other things you might pick.

這個比喻是與眾不同的。

For one thing, both were very real.

其一，兩者都是真實發生的。

In 1849, in that Gold Rush, they took over $700 million

在1849年的淘金熱中，人們從加州取走了

worth of gold out of California. It was very real.

總值七億美元的黃金，這是實在的事。

The Internet was also very real. This is a real way for humans to

網際網路也是實實在在的變成了人們溝通的方式

communicate with each other. It's a big deal.

這是一件重大的事。

Huge boom. Huge boom. Huge bust. Huge bust.

大起、大起、大落、大落

You keep going, and both things are lots of hype.

再比較下去，兩者都是狂熱

I don't have to remind you of all the hype

不需要我再提醒你有多狂熱吧

that was involved with the Internet -- like GetRich.com.

這是網路上的 -- 像是 GetRich.com(致富網)

But you had the same thing with the Gold Rush. "Gold. Gold. Gold."

淘金狂熱裡也找得到 "黃金！黃金！黃金！"

Sixty-eight rich men on the Steamer Portland. Stacks of yellow metal.

波特蘭的小城出了68位富人！一堆堆的黃色金屬！

Some have 5,000. Many have more.

有人淘到五千美元，更多的還比比皆是...

A few bring out 100,000 dollars each.

有人賺到十萬美金。

People would get very excited about this when they read these articles.

當人們讀到這些文章時馬上熱血沸騰。

"The Eldorado of the United States of America:

美國的黃金城。

the discovery of inexhaustible gold mines in California."

在加州發現採之不盡的金礦？

And the parallels between the Gold Rush and the Internet Rush continue very strongly.

淘金熱跟網路熱兩者可相提併論。

So many people left what they were doing.

接著人們離開現有的工作

And what would happen is -- and the Gold Rush went on for years.

淘金熱持續了幾年，接著

People on the East Coast in 1849, when they first started to get the news,

1849年美國東岸的人一開始聽到這消息時

they thought, "Ah, this isn't real."

他們想 "啊，這是騙人的啦。"

But they keep hearing about people getting rich,

可是陸續傳來有人一夜致富的消息

and then in 1850 they still hear that. And they think it's not real.

到一年後1850，他們還是不相信

By about 1852, they're thinking, "Am I the stupidest person on Earth

直到1852年，他們想 "難道我是最蠢的人嗎？

by not rushing to California?" And they start to decide they are.

為何不去加州淘金？" 接著他們動了起來

These are community affairs, by the way.

順便提一下，這些是社區事務

Local communities on the East Coast would get together and whole teams

東岸的地方社區們聚在一起，然後

of 10, 20 people would caravan across the United States,

一、二十個人一起組團搭車橫跨美國

and they would form companies.

而且他們也會組成公司。

These were typically not solitary efforts. But no matter what,

這些都不是單獨行動，而且不管你之前

if you were a lawyer or a banker, people dropped what they were doing,

是律師或銀行家，人們放棄原有工作

no matter what skill set they had, to go pan for gold.

不論他們原有的技能為何，全部都淘金去了。

This guy on the left, Dr. Richard Beverley Cole,

左邊這傢伙是可爾醫師

he lived in Philadelphia and he took the Panama route.

當時他住在費城，搭船下到巴拿馬

They would take a ship down to Panama, across the isthmus,

橫越過巴拿馬地峽

and then take another ship north.

然後再搭船往北。

This guy, Dr. Toland, went by covered wagon to California.

這位是圖蘭醫師，他搭貨運馬車到加州。

This has its parallels, too. Doctors leaving their practices.

醫師們相繼離開他們的病人

These are both very successful -- a physician in one case,

這兩個當時都是非常成功的 -- 一位是內科

a surgeon in the other.

另一位是外科醫師。

Same thing happened on the Internet. You get DrKoop.com.

同樣的事情也發生在網路上，DrKoop.com (醫酷網)

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

In the Gold Rush, people literally jumped ship.

在淘金熱裡，人們常 "跳船"

The San Francisco harbor was clogged with 600 ships at the peak

在舊金山港那時曾擠滿了600條船

because the ships would get there and the crews would abandon

因為人們把船開到那裡以後

to go search for gold.

所有船員都棄船淘金去了。

So there were literally 600 captains and 600 ships.

所以六百條船上只剩六百個船長。

They turned the ships into hotels, because they couldn't sail them anywhere.

他們把船變成了旅館，因為沒船員也開不了船。

You had dotcom fever. And you had gold fever.

"網路熱" 相對於 "淘金熱"

And you saw some of the excesses

更有甚者

that the dotcom fever created and the same thing happened.

網路熱創造了同樣的事蹟

The fort in San Francisco at the time had about 1,300 soldiers.

當時舊金山防區有1300位士兵

Half of them deserted to go look for gold.

有半數跑去找金子了

And they wouldn't let the other half out to go look for the first half

當局不讓剩下的一半去找失蹤的士兵

because they were afraid they wouldn't come back.

因為怕像肉包子打狗(一去不回)

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

And one of the soldiers wrote home, and this is the sentence that he put:

其中有個士兵在家書裡寫道:

"The struggle between right and six dollars a month

"一個月賺6塊錢的「對」

and wrong and 75 dollars a day is a rather severe one."

相較於一天進帳75塊的「錯」，真是很大的掙扎啊"

They had bad burn rate in the Gold Rush. A very bad burn rate.

淘金熱那時燒錢也很快

This is actually from the Klondike Gold Rush. This is the White Pass Trail.

這相片是當時克朗岱克淘金熱裡的懷特通道

They loaded up their mules and their horses.

他們的馬和驢載滿了東西

And they didn't plan right.

不過他們並沒有計劃好

And they didn't know how far they would really have to go,

而且不曉得路途有多遠

and they overloaded the horses with hundreds and hundreds of pounds of stuff.

所以馬上面超載了上百公斤的東西

In fact it was so bad that most of the horses died

以至於大部份的馬在沒到目的地

before they could get where they were going.

就都過勞死了

It got renamed the "Dead Horse Trail."

因此後來這路也被叫做 "死馬通道"

And the Canadian Minister of the Interior wrote this at the time:

當時加拿大的內政部記載：

"Thousands of pack horses lie dead along the way,

"數以千計的馬在途中死去，

sometimes in bunches under the cliffs,

有時成堆的在懸崖下，

with pack saddles and packs where they've fallen from the rock above,

身旁可見馬鞍與跟它們一起從山上掉落的包裹，

sometimes in tangled masses, filling the mud holes

有時扭曲的屍身，填補了泥坑

and furnishing the only footing for our poor pack animals on the march,

為路上同樣可憐的貨運動物們鋪路，

often, I regret to say, exhausted, but still alive,

經常，我不情願說，很累，但是還活著，

a fact we were unaware of, until after the miserable wretches

直到這些可憐的馬蹄倒下

turned beneath the hooves of our cavalcade.

我們才意識到的一個事實

The eyeless sockets of the pack animals everywhere

一路上數不清

account for the myriads of ravens along the road.

無眼白骨的動物屍骸

The inhumanity which this trail has been witness to,

這路上見證到的人性泯滅

the heartbreak and suffering which so many have undergone,

心碎和痛苦到讓很多人無法想像

cannot be imagined. They certainly cannot be described."

也無法用言語來形容。"

And you know, without the smell that would have accompanied that,

同樣的除了難聞的氣味之外

we had the same thing on the Internet: very bad burn rate calculations.

網路熱裡有同樣的：超高的燒錢率。

I'll just play one of these and you'll remember it.

我接下來要播放其中一個所以你們會有印象

This is a commercial that was played on the Super Bowl in the year 2000.

這是2000年超級盃中的一個廣告片

(Video): Bride #1: You said you had a large selection of invitations. Clerk: But we do.

(影片):新娘#1: 你不是說你們有很多不同種的邀請卡嗎？ 店員: 是啊

Bride #2: Then why does she have my invitation?

新娘#2: 那為什麼她的跟我一樣?

Announcer: What may be a little thing to some ... Bride #3: You are mine, little man.

旁白: 別人看起來的一件小事... 新娘#3: 你給我看好了.

Announcer: Could be a really big deal to you. Husband #1: Is that your wife?

旁白: 對你來說可能是件大事。新郎#1: 那是你太太嗎？

Husband #2: Not for another 15 minutes. Announcer: After all, it's your special day.

新郎#2: 15分鐘以後才是. 旁白: 重要的是, 今天是你特別的日子。

OurBeginning.com. Life's an event. Announce it to the world.

OurBeginning.com (我們的開始.com) 結婚比命重, 向世界公佈吧.

Jeff Bezos: It's very difficult to figure out what that ad is for.

傑夫：很難看出來這在廣告些什麼？

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

But they spent three and a half million dollars

但是他們花了三百五十萬美金

in the 2000 Super Bowl to air that ad,

在2000年的超級盃播放這廣告片

even though, at the time, they only had a million dollars in annual revenue.

即使他們當時一年只有一百萬的營收

Now, here's where our analogy with the Gold Rush starts to diverge,

我們開始來談與淘金熱這個類比不同的地方

and I think rather severely.

我認為是很大的分別

And that is, in a gold rush, when it's over, it's over.

就是在淘金熱裡，結束就結束了。

Here's this guy: "There are many men in Dawson

這是一個傢伙寫的: "在達森這個地方，有很多人

at the present time who feel keenly disappointed.

感到失望與落空

They've come thousands of miles on a perilous trip, risked life, health and property,

他們冒了生命、健康與財產的風險行了數千里路

spent months of the most arduous labor a man can perform

辛辛苦苦的花了幾個月的勞力

and at length with expectations raised to the highest pitch

與很高很高的期待

have reached the coveted goal only to discover

結果到頭來發現

the fact that there is nothing here for them."

這裡什麼都沒有。"

And that was, of course, the very common story.

當然這種故事在那時候很普遍

Because when you take out that last piece of gold --

因為當你把最後一塊金子取走時...

and they did incredibly quickly. I mean, if you look at the 1849 Gold Rush --

如果你回顧1849年的淘金熱，這事發生得很快

the entire American river region, within two years --

整個美國河流區在兩年之內每塊石頭都被翻過了

every stone had been turned. And after that, only big companies

而在那之後只有一些大公司

who used more sophisticated mining technologies

使用了比較複雜的開採技術

started to take gold out of there.

才開始採到黃金。

So there's a much better analogy that allows you to be incredibly optimistic

接著另一個對比會讓我們感到無比樂觀

and that analogy is the electric industry.

就是電力產業

And there are a lot of similarities between the Internet and the electric industry.

網際網路與電力產業之間

With the electric industry you actually have to --

有很多相似的地方

one of them is that they're both sort of thin,

其中之一是兩者都算是薄的、

horizontal, enabling layers that go across lots of different industries.

水平的、可以啟動跨越不同產業的層面。

It's not a specific thing.

它不只是單一個東西。

But electricity is also very, very broad, so you have to sort of narrow it down.

但是電力也是非常非常廣義的，所以你要把範圍縮小。

You know, it can be used as an incredible means of transmitting power.

它可以指轉移電力

It's an incredible means of coordinating,

它也是代表一種協調

in a very fine-grained way, information flows.

以一種非常精細的資訊流方式。

There's a bunch of things that are interesting about electricity.

電有很多有趣的事情

And the part of the electric revolution that I want to focus on

我特別要大家注意的是

is sort of the golden age of appliances.

家電的黄金時代

The killer app that got the world ready for appliances was the light bulb.

讓世界進入家電時代的殺手級應用是燈泡

So the light bulb is what wired the world.

所以說是燈炮連接了世界

And they weren't thinking about appliances when they wired the world.

當時的人拉線連世界並沒有想到家電

They were really thinking about --

他們真正想的

they weren't putting electricity into the home;

並不是讓每個家裡有電

they were putting lighting into the home.

他們想的是讓家裡有燈光

And, but it really -- it got the electricity. It took a long time.

到後來花了很長的時間才轉移焦點到電。

This was a huge -- as you would expect -- a huge capital build out.

你可以想像當時這是件大事，巨大的資金投入

All the streets had to be torn up.

所有的路都被翻了起來

This is work going on down in lower Manhattan

這相片是當時曼哈頓下城區的施工情況

where they built some of the first electric power generating stations.

他們在蓋第一個發電站

And they're tearing up all the streets.

他們把所有的街道拆了

The Edison Electric Company, which became Edison General Electric,

愛廸生電力公司，後來變成愛廸生通用電力，

which became General Electric,

然後變成通用電力(GE)公司

paid for all of this digging up of the streets. It was incredibly expensive.

他們支付所有挖路的費用，那時是非常昴貴的。

But that is not the -- and that's not the part that's really most similar to the Web.

但這不是與網站最像的地方

Because, remember, the Web got to stand

請記住，網站已經站在

on top of all this heavy infrastructure

所有長途電話網站所建立的

that had been put in place because of the long-distance phone network.

厚實的基礎之上了。

So all of the cabling and all of the heavy infrastructure --

因此所有拉線跟重大的基礎建設

I'm going back now to, sort of, the explosive part of the Web in 1994,

我要回到1994年的網路暴發

when it was growing 2,300 percent a year.

當它一年成長 2300%

How could it grow at 2,300 percent a year in 1994

它怎麼可能在1994年人們都還沒有

when people weren't really investing in the Web?

真正投資在網路時成長2300%？

Well, it was because that heavy infrastructure had already been laid down.

那是因為重大基礎建設所已經投下的。

So the light bulb laid down the heavy infrastructure,

所以燈泡打下了重大的基礎建設

and then home appliances started coming into being.

然後家電開始變成主流。

And this was huge. The first one was the electric fan --

那是很大的事，首先是電扇 --

this was the 1890 electric fan.

這是 1890 年的電扇

And the appliances, the golden age of appliances really lasted --

而家電的黄金時期持續了 --

it depends how you want to measure it --

要看你怎麼去估算它 --

but it's anywhere from 40 to 60 years. It goes on a long time.

大概是 40 到 60 年，這持續了一段很長的時間。

It starts about 1890. And the electric fan was a big success.

從 1890 年開始，電扇是個大成功。

The electric iron, also very big.

電熨斗也是大成功。

By the way, this is the beginning of the asbestos lawsuit.

順道一提，這是石棉訴訟的開始。

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

There's asbestos under that handle there.

這手把下面有塊石棉。

This is the first vacuum cleaner, the 1905 Skinner Vacuum,

這是第一個吸塵器，1905年胡佛公司出產的

from the Hoover Company. And this one weighed 92 pounds

這個吸塵器重達41.73公斤

and took two people to operate and cost a quarter of a car.

要兩個人才能運作，而且價錢是一台車的四分之一

So it wasn't a big seller.

所以那時賣得不好

This was truly, truly an early-adopter product --

這是真的早期試用者的產品

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

the 1905 Skinner Vacuum.

這 1905 "使金美" 吸塵器

But three years later, by 1908, it weighed 40 pounds.

但是三年後，1908年，它的重量下到18公斤。

Now, not all these things were highly successful.

這些東西並不是每一樣都很成功。

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

This is the electric tie press, which never really did catch on.

這是領帶電熨斗，它也是失敗的產品。

People, I guess, decided that they would not wrinkle their ties.

我猜大部份的人覺得領帶應該不會皺吧。

These never really caught on either:

這些也都失敗了:

the electric shoe warmer and drier. Never a big seller.

這是烘鞋電把，也是沒有大賣

This came in, like, six different colors.

它有六種不同顏色的款式

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

I don't know why. But I thought, you know,

我也不知道為什麼，不過

sometimes it's just not the right time for an invention;

有時候可能發明的時間不對

maybe it's time to give this one another shot.

再試一下也許會成也說不定。

So I thought we could build a Super Bowl ad for this.

如果我們來做個超級盃廣告

We'd need the right partner. And I thought that really --

再找個贊助商 --

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

I thought that would really work, to give that another shot.

這次成功的機率就大不同了吧。

Now, the toaster was huge

烤吐司機當時是大發明

because they used to make toast on open fires,

因為在那之前要用火來烤

and it took a lot of time and attention.

要花很多時間去顧

I want to point out one thing. This is -- you guys know what this is.

我要給你們看這個東西，你們知道這是什麼吧。

They hadn't invented the electric socket yet.

那時還沒發明電插座

So this was -- remember, they didn't wire the houses for electricity.

記得嗎，他們那時拉線到房子不是為了電

They wired them for lighting. So your -- your appliances would plug in.

而是為了燈，所以你的電器要接到

They would -- each room typically had a light bulb socket at the top.

每個房間天花板上的燈泡插座

And you'd plug it in there.

你就把電器插到那插座上。