Subtitles section Play video
Once every 12 months,
譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Yanyan Hong
the world's largest human migration happens in China.
每 12 個月,
Over the 40-day travel period of Chinese New Year,
中國就會發生一次 世界最大規模的人類遷徙。
three billion trips are taken,
在中國新年的 40 天旅行期當中,
as families reunite and celebrate.
會有 30 億人次的旅行產生,
Now, the most strenuous of these trips are taken
為了回家相聚和慶祝。
by the country's 290 million migrant workers,
這些旅行當中最艱苦的
for many of whom this is the one chance a year
是中國 2 億 9 千萬移民工人的旅行,
to go home and see parents and their left-behind children.
因為對許多移民工人而言, 一年就只有這次機會
But the travel options are very limited;
可以回家看父母 和被他們留在家鄉的孩子。
plane tickets cost nearly half of their monthly salary.
但旅行的選擇非常有限;
So most of them, they choose the train.
機票票價幾乎是他們月薪的一半。
Their average journey is 700 kilometers.
所以他們大部分會選擇火車。
The average travel time is 15 and a half hours.
他們的平均旅程是 700 公里。
And the country's tracks now have to handle 390 million travelers
平均旅行時間是 15.5 小時。
every Spring Festival.
每年的中國新年, 中國的鐵路就要處理
Until recently,
3 億 9 千萬名乘客。
migrant workers would have to queue for long hours -- sometimes days --
直到近期,
just to buy tickets,
移工得要排隊數小時,甚至數天,
often only to be fleeced by scalpers.
只為了買到車票,
And they still had to deal with near-stampede conditions
常常還被黃牛給剝削。
when travel day finally arrived.
等到出發日終於到了, 他們仍然得要面對
But technology has started to ease this experience.
幾乎是人潮蜂湧的狀況。
Mobile and digital tickets now account for 70 percent of sales,
但科技開始緩和像這樣子的經歷。
greatly reducing the lines at train stations.
行動和數位票券現在佔了業績的 70%,
Digital ID scanners have replaced manual checks,
大大減少了在火車站排隊的人潮。
expediting the boarding process,
數位 ID 掃瞄器取代了人工驗票,
and artificial intelligence is deployed across the network
加速了上車的流程,
to optimize travel routes.
網路上還採用了人工智慧,
New solutions have been invented.
讓旅行路線能最佳化。
China's largest taxi-hailing platform, called Didi Chuxing,
現在已經發明出了解決方案。
launched a new service called Hitch,
中國最大的計程車招呼平台 叫做「滴滴出行」,
which matches car owners who are driving home
他們推出了新服務「順風車」,
with passengers looking for long-distance routes.
將開車回家的汽車駕駛
In just its third year,
和找車的長途旅客做配對。
Hitch served 30 million trips in this past holiday season,
「順風車」才推出第三年,
the longest of which was further than 1,500 miles.
在最近一次的長假期間 就服務了三千萬趟旅行,
That's about the distance from Miami to Boston.
當中最長的旅途超過 1,500 英哩。
This enormous need of migrant workers has powered fast upgrade and innovation
那大約是邁阿密到波士頓的距離。
across the country's transport systems.
移民工人的需求量非常大,
Now, the Chinese internet has developed in both familiar and unfamiliar ways.
促成了全國各地 運輸系統的升級和創新。
Just like in Silicon Valley,
現在,中國網路的發展, 有我們熟悉與不熟悉的方式。
some of the seismic shifts in technology and consumer behavior
就像在矽谷一樣,
have been driven by academic research,
有一些科技和消費行為的轉變,
have been driven by enterprise desires,
是由學術研究所帶動的,
with the whims of privilege and youth sprinkled in every once in a while.
是由企業的慾望所帶動的,
I am a product of the American tech industry,
偶爾,還會因一些當權者的一時興起, 或是年輕人的突發奇想而發生轉變。
both as a consumer and a corporate leader.
我是美國科技產業的產物,
So I am well acquainted with this type of fuel.
是消費者,同時也是企業領導者。
But about a year and a half ago,
我非常清楚這種推動力量。
I moved from my home in New York City to Hong Kong
可是,大約一年半之前,
to become the CEO of the South China Morning Post.
我從紐約搬家搬到香港,
And from this new vantage point,
去擔任南華早報的執行長。
I've observed something that is far less familiar to me,
從這個新的有利位置,
propelling so much of China's innovation and many of its entrepreneurs.
我觀察到了一種我很不熟悉的狀況,
It is an overwhelming need economy
它驅動了中國大量的創新, 激勵了許多中國的創業家。
that is serving an underprivileged populous,
它是一種強大的需求經濟,
which has been separated for 30 years from China's economic boom.
對象是下層的眾多人口,
The stark gaps that exist between the rich and the poor,
30 年來,中國的 經濟景氣與他們無關。
between urban and rural
這個非常明顯的差距, 存在於富人和窮人之間,
or the academic and the unschooled --
城市和鄉村之間,
these gaps, they form a soil
或是受教育和未受教育的人之間——
that's ready for some incredible empowerment.
這些差距形成了一種沃土,
So when capital and investment become focused on the needs of people
準備好要成就大事,協助賦權。
who are hanging to the bottom rungs of an economic ladder,
當資本和投資的重點都放在
that's when we start to see the internet truly become a job creator,
位於經濟階梯下層者的需要時,
an education enabler
我們就會看見網際網路 真正變成了工作創造者、
and in many other ways, a path forward.
教育實現者,
Of course, China is not the only place where this alternative fuel exists,
在許多層面上, 也變成是條向前行的路。
nor the only place where it is possible.
當然,不只中國, 其他地方也有這種替代的推動力,
But because of the country's sheer scale and status as a rising superpower,
在其他地方也有可能實現。
the needs of its population have created an opportunity
但因為中國身為一種新興 超級力量的規模和狀況,
for truly compelling impact.
其人民的需求已經創造出了
When explaining the rapid growth of the Chinese tech industry,
一個有著極大影響力的機會。
many observers will cite two reasons.
許多觀察家在解釋中國 科技產業的快速成長時,
The first is the 1.4 billion people that call China home.
會引用兩個理由。
The second is the government's active participation --
第一個理由是中國有 14 億居住人口。
or pervasive intervention, depending on how you view it.
第二個理由是政府的積極參與——
Now, the central authorities have spent heavily on network infrastructure
或普遍的干預,看你怎麼去看它。
over the years,
這些年來,中央當權機關投入很多
creating an attractive environment for investment.
在做網路的基礎建設,
At the same time, they've insisted on standards and regulation,
創造出一個很吸引投資的環境。
which has led to fast consensus and therefore, fast adoption.
同時,他們對於標準 和規制十分堅持,
The world's largest pool of tech talent exists
導致了快速的共識, 因而能快速上路。
because of the abundance of educational incentives.
世界上最大的科技人才庫 之所以會存在,
And local, domestic companies, in the past, have been protected
是因為教育獎勵很充足。
from international competition
過去,地區性、國內的 公司一直受到保護,
by market controls.
不受國際競爭影響,
Of course, you cannot observe the Chinese internet
保護方式就是市場控制。
without finding widespread censorship
當然,如果你觀察中國網路,
and very serious concerns about dystopian monitoring.
就一定會發現有很廣泛的審查制度,
As an example:
並且會嚴重關切反烏托邦的監視。
China is in the process of rolling out a social credit rating
舉例來說:
that will cover its entire population,
中國正在推行一項社會信用評分,
rewarding and restricting citizens,
會涵蓋到中國的所有人口,
based on highly qualitative characteristics
給公民獎勵或是限制,
like honesty and integrity.
依據則是高度質性的特性,
At the same time,
比如誠實和廉正。
China is deploying facial recognition
同時,
across many of its 170 million closed-circuit cameras.
中國也在展開臉孔辨識,
Artificial intelligence is being used to predict crime and terrorism
中國有 1 億 7 千萬台閉路攝影機, 大多都會套用。
in Xinjiang province,
人工智慧被用來預測
where the Muslim minority is already under constant surveillance.
新疆省的犯罪和恐怖主義,
Yet, the internet has continued to grow, and it is so big --
在該省份中,穆斯林少數 已經受到經常的監視。
much bigger than I think most of us realize.
然而,網際網路持續成長, 它是如此龐大——
By the end of 2017,
比我們大部分人所知道的還要大很多。
the Chinese internet population had reached 772 million users.
截至 2017 年年底,
That's larger than the populations of the United States, Russia,
中國網路已經達到 七億七千兩百萬名使用者。
of Germany, of the United Kingdom, of France and Canada combined.
這個數量比美國、俄國、德國、
Ninety-eight percent of them are active on mobile.
英國、法國,和加拿大 所有人口加起來還多。
Ninety-two percent of them use messaging apps.
其中 98% 的使用者都是用手機上網。
There are now 650 million digital news consumers,
其中 92% 會用訊息應用程式。
580 million digital video consumers,
現在有六億五千萬個 數位新聞的消費者,
and the country's largest e-commerce platform, Taobao,
五億八千萬個數位影片消費者,
now boasts 580 million monthly active users.
中國最大的電子商務平台淘寶網
It's about 80 percent larger than Amazon.
自稱現在每個月有 五億八千萬名活躍的使用者。
On-demand travel, between bikes and cars,
大約比亞馬遜還要大 80%。
now accounts for 10 billion trips a year in China.
腳踏車和汽車的按需旅行,
That's two-thirds of all trips taken around the world.
現在在中國一年有 100 億趟。
So it's a very mixed bag.
那是全世界旅行趟數的三分之二。
The internet exists in a restricted, arguably manipulated form within China,
所以,這個袋子的內容很雜。
yet it is massive and has vastly improved the lives of its citizens.
在中國,網際網路存在的形式是個 受限制且可說是被操控的形式,
So even in its imperfection,
然而,它非常巨大, 且大大改善了中國公民的生活。
the growth of the Chinese internet should not be dismissed,
所以即便它不完美,
and it's worthy of our closer examination.
中國網際網路的成長不該被忽視,
Let me tell you two other stories today.
很值得我們更深入探究。
Luo Zhaoliu is a 34-year-old engineer from Jiangxi province.
今天,讓我再跟各位說兩個故事。
Now, his home region used to be extremely important to the Communist party
羅昭劉(Luo Zhaoliu) 是江西省的 34 歲工程師。
because this was the birthplace of the Red Army.
對共產黨來說,他的家鄉 曾是極度重要的區域,
But over the decades, because of its separation
因為這是紅軍的誕生地。
from the economic and manufacturing centers of the country,
但經過數十年,因為它
it has slid into irrelevance.
與中國的經濟和製造中心分離,
Luo, like so many in his generation, left home at a young age
它也漸漸變得不重要了。
to look for work in a major city.
羅和他同輩的許多人一樣, 年輕時就離鄉背井,
He ended up in Shenzhen, which is one of China's tech hubs.
到大城市去找工作。
As the young migrate,
他最後到了深圳, 中國的科技中心之一。
these rural villages are left with only elderly,
當年輕人外移,
who are really struggling to elevate themselves above abject poverty.
這些鄉村村子就只剩下老年人,
After nine years, Luo decided to return to Jiangxi in 2017,
他們很辛苦才能維持在 比淒苦貧困稍好一點的水平。
because he believed that the booming e-commerce marketplace in China
2017 年,即 9 年後, 羅決定要回到江西,
could help him revive his village.
因為他相信, 中國的電子商務市場景氣
Like many rural communities,
能夠協助復甦他的村子。
Luo's home specialized in a very specific provincial craft --
和許多鄉村社區一樣,
making fermented bean curd, in this case.
羅的家鄉也特別擅長 一種很明確的地方性手工藝,
So he started a small factory
在這個例子中, 這項手工藝是做臭豆腐。
and started selling his locally made goods online.
所以他開了一間小工廠,
There have been many years of consumption growth
開始在線上銷售他的 當地製造的商品。
across China's major cities.
整個中國主要城市的消費成長
But recently, technology has been driving an explosion in craft goods sales
已經持續了很多年。
among China's middle and upper classes.
但近期,科技開始帶動了 手工藝商品的業績,
WeChat and other e-commerce platforms allow rural producers
銷售對象是中國的中高階層人士。
to market and sell their goods
微信和其他電子商務平台 讓鄉村的製造者
far beyond their original distribution areas.
能行銷和出售他們的商品,
Research companies actually track this impact
所及範圍遠超過 他們原本的銷售區域。
by counting what is called "Taobao villages."
研究公司真去追蹤這項影響,
This is any rural village where at least 10 percent of its households
做法是去計算所謂的「淘寶村」。
are selling goods online and making a certain amount of revenue.
任何一個鄉村只要有 一成以上的家庭上網賣商品,
And the growth has been significant in the last few years.
且達到一定的營收額, 該村就稱為是淘寶村。
There were just 20 Taobao villages in 2013,
在過去短短幾年,成長非常顯著。
212 in 2014,
2013 年只有 20 個淘寶村,
780 in 2015,
2014 年 212 個,
1,300 in 2016
2015 年有 780 個,
and over 2,100 at the end of 2017.
2016 年有 1,300 個,
They now account for nearly half a million active online stores,
2017 年年底有超過 2,100 個。
19 billion dollars in annual sales
現在總共有將近 50 萬間活躍的網上商店,
and 1.3 million new jobs created.
年銷售額達 190 億,
In Luo's first year back home, he was able to employ 15 villagers.
還創造出了 130 萬個新工作。
And he sold about 60,000 units of fermented bean curd.
羅在返鄉的頭一年 僱用了十五位村民,
He expects to hire 30 more people in the next year,
賣出了六萬塊臭豆腐。
as his demand rapidly rises.
他預計隔年隨著需求快速攀升,
There are 60 million left-behind children scattered across China's rural landscape.
會需要再僱用三十人。
And they grow up with at least one parent far away from home,
在中國各個鄉村地區 有六千萬留守兒童。
as a migrant worker.
在他們成長的過程中, 至少有一位家長遠離家鄉
Alongside all the general hardships of rural life,
去當移工。
they often have to travel vast and dangerous distances
鄉村生活一般來說都非常困苦,
just to get to school.
這些孩子還得要行經 危險且長遠的路途
They account for 30 percent
才能到達學校。
of the country's primary and high school students.
他們就佔了中國
Ten-year-old Chang Wenxuan is one of these students.
小學和中學學生的 30%。
He walks an hour each way every single day to school,
10 歲的常文軒(Chang Wenxuan) 就是這樣的學生。
across these deep ravines, in an isolated landscape.
他每天上學與返家各要花一小時,
But when he arrives at the small farming village in Gansu province,
要穿過一片孤立地區中的深谷。
he will find just two other students in this entire school.
但當他抵達甘肅省的這個農村時,
Now, Chang's school is one of 1,000 in Gansu alone
整所學校中只有他和另外兩個學生。
that has less than five registered students.
光是在甘肅省, 像小常的這間學校一樣
So with limited student interaction,
只有不到 5 名註冊學生的 學校就有 1 千間。
with underqualified teachers
因為學生互動很有限,
and schoolhouses that are barely furnished and not insulated,
老師又資格不符,
rural students have long been disadvantaged,
學校建築幾乎沒有什麼配備, 也沒有隔熱,
with almost no path to higher education.
鄉村學生長年來一直都是弱勢,
But Chang's future has been dramatically shifted
幾乎不可能進入高等教育。
with the installation of a “Sunshine Classroom.”
但小常的未來出現了劇大的轉變,
He's now part of a digital classroom of 100 students
因為「陽光教室」的裝設完成了。
across 28 different schools,
他現在參與了一個數位教室,
taught by qualified and certified teachers
成員是來自 28 所 不同學校的 100 名學生,
live-streaming from hundreds of miles away.
他們的老師是合格的,也有證照,
He has access to new subjects like music and art,
以直播的方式從數百英哩外教導他們。
to new friends
他能夠接觸到新的科目, 如音樂和藝術,
and to experiences that extend far beyond his home.
能交新朋友,
Recently, Chang even got to visit the Frederiksborg Castle museum
能學到經驗遠遠超出 他家鄉能夠提供的。
in Denmark --
最近,小常甚至造訪了 腓特烈堡城堡博物館,
virtually, of course.
它位于丹麥——
Now, online education has existed for many years outside of China.
當然,是虛擬的造訪。
But it has never reached truly transformative scale,
在中國以外的地方, 線上教學已經存在很多年。
likely because traditional education systems
但它從來沒有達到能夠 真正造成改變的規模,
in other tech centers of the world
很可能是因為世界上其他 教學中心裡的傳統教育體制
are far more advanced and far more stable.
實在先進太多,也穩定太多。
But China's extreme terrain and size
但中國廣大和極端的地形,
have created an enormous and immediate need for innovation.
導致對創新有著立即且極大的需求。
There's a tech start-up in Shenzhen that grew to 300,000 students
在深圳有間新創科技公司的 學生人數成長到 30 萬,
in just one year.
只花了一年。
And by our best estimation at the Post,
根據我們南華早報的最佳估計,
there are now 55 million rural students across China
全中國現在有 5,500 萬鄉村學生
that are addressable and accessible by live-streaming classes.
直播班可以找到他們、接觸他們。
This market of need is larger than the entire US student population
這個需求市場比全美國幼稚園
between kindergarten and grade 12.
到 12 年級的學生總數還要大。
So I'm extremely encouraged to find out
有件事讓我感到非常受鼓舞,
that private investment in ed-tech in China
我發現,針對中國教育科技的私人投資
now exceeds one billion dollars a year,
現在超過了每年 10 億元,
with another 30 billion dollars in public funding
另外還有 300 億元的公共資金,
that is committed between now and 2020.
會在現在到 2020 年之間提供。
As the Chinese internet continues to grow,
隨著中國網際網路持續成長,
even in its imperfection and restrictions and controls,
即使它不完美,
the lives of its once-forgotten populations
對於那些以前曾經被遺忘的人,
have been irrevocably elevated.
他們的生活已經被確實地提升。
There is a focus on populations of need, not of want,
當把焦點放在有需求的人口, 而非有慾望的人口時,
that has driven a lot of the curiosity, the creativity
它能夠驅動許多的好奇心、創意,
and the development that we see.
以及我們所見的發展。
And there's still more to come.
將來還有更多會出現。
In America, internet population, or penetration,
在美國,上網人口,或說滲透率,
has now reached 88 percent.
現在達到 88%。
In China, the internet has still only reached 56 percent of the populous.
在中國,只有 56% 的人 在使用網際網路。
That means there are over 600 million people
那意味著,還有超過 6 億人
who are still offline and disconnected.
還沒有上線,還沒有被連結。
That's nearly twice the US population.
那幾乎是美國人口數的 2 倍。
An enormous opportunity.
一個極大的機會。
Wherever this alternative fuel exists,
不論這種替代的推動力在哪裡,
be it in China or Africa, Southeast Asia or the American heartland,
不論是中國或非洲, 東南亞或美國心臟地區,
we should endeavor to follow it with capital and with effort,
我們應該要用資本 和努力來盡力追隨它,
driving both economic and societal impact all over the world.
帶動全世界各地的經濟和社會影響。
Just imagine for a minute what more could be possible
花一分鐘想想看, 如果我們在發明時,
if the global needs of the underserved become the primary focus
能把焦點放到全球各地 服務缺乏的人口的需求上,
of our inventions.
那我們會創造怎樣多的可能性?
Thank you.
謝謝。
(Applause)
(掌聲)