observing what makes people luckier than others

我花了將近二十年的時間

and trying to help people increase their luck.

觀察是什麼原因讓某些人特別幸運，

You see, I teach entrepreneurship,

並試著幫大家變得更幸運。

and we all know that most new ventures fail,

如各位所知，我教的是創業，

and innovators and entrepreneurs need all the luck they can get.

我們都知道大部分的 新創事業會失敗，

So what is luck?

對創新人士和創業家來說 好運永遠不嫌少。

Luck is defined as success or failure apparently caused by chance.

但什麼是運氣？

Apparently.

運氣的意思是：成敗顯然是巧合。

That's the operative word.

顯然。

It looks like it's chance

這是關鍵詞。

because we rarely see all the levers that come into play to make people lucky.

運氣看起來像巧合

But I've realized, by watching so long,

是因為我們很少會看到 所有會讓人好運的因素。

that luck is rarely a lightning strike,

但我在長期觀察後發現，

isolated and dramatic.

好運很少像一道閃電，

It's much more like the wind,

是單一或戲劇化的。

blowing constantly.

好運比較像是風勢，

Sometimes it's calm,

持續地吹。

and sometimes it blows in gusts,

有時候風平浪靜，

and sometimes it comes from directions that you didn't even imagine.

有時候陣陣強風，

So how do you catch the winds of luck?

有時候出乎意料之外 從四面八方吹來。

It's easy, but it's not obvious.

那要怎麼抓住好運的風勢？

So I'm going to share three things with you

要抓住好運不難， 但也沒那麼昭然若揭。

that you can do to build a sail to capture the winds of luck.

我要和大家分享三個要素，

The first thing you want to do

讓你們能打造一艘 可以抓住好運勢的風帆。

is to change your relationship with yourself.

第一件你可以做的事

Be willing to take small risks that get you out of your comfort zone.

是改變和自己的關係。

Now, when we're children, we do this all the time.

願意踏出舒適圈冒一點險。

We have to do this if we're going to learn how to walk or talk

我們小時候不斷在冒險。

or ride a bike

因為我們得這麼做， 才能學走路、說話、

or even quantum mechanics. Right?

騎單車

We need to go from someone one week who doesn't ride a bike

或是量子力學，對吧？

to, next week, someone who does.

我們要在一個星期內， 從一個不會騎單車的人

And this requires us to get out of our comfort zone

變成會騎單車的人。

and take some risks.

這得靠我們離開舒適圈

The problem is, as we get older,

和冒點險才行。

we rarely do this.

問題是我們年紀越大

We sort of lock down the sense of who we are

就越少冒險。

and don't stretch anymore.

我們就像是畫地自限，

Now, with my students,

不再踏出一步。

I spend a lot of time giving them encouragement

我帶學生的時候，

to get out of their comfort zone and take some risks.

花很多時間鼓勵他們

How do I do this?

踏出舒適圈去冒點險。

Well, I start out by having them fill out a risk-o-meter.

我怎麼做呢？

Now, it's basically a fun thing we developed in our class

我從讓他們填寫冒險指數開始。

where they map out what risks they're willing to take.

其實這是我們在課堂上 發明的小遊戲，

And it becomes clear very quickly to them

他們要寫出自己願意冒的險有哪些。

that risk-taking is not binary.

很快他們就會了解到，

There are intellectual risks and physical risks and financial risks

冒險不是只有要或不要兩種選擇。

and emotional risks and social risks and ethical risks and political risks.

有智力風險、肢體風險、財務風險、

And once they do this, they compare their risk profiles with others,

情感風險、社交風險、 倫理風險和政治風險。

and they quickly realize that they're all really different.

他們評估後和其他人比較自己的量表，

I then encourage them to stretch,

馬上就會發現大家都很不同。

to take some risks that get them out of their comfort zone.

之後我會鼓勵他們突破，

For example, I might ask them to do an intellectual risk

冒點讓他們可以踏出舒適圈的風險。

and try to tackle a problem they haven't tried before;

例如我會要他們嘗試智力風險，

or a social risk, talking to someone sitting next to them on the train;

解決一個以前沒研究過的問題；

or an emotional risk,

或是社交風險： 在火車上和鄰座乘客聊天；

maybe telling someone they really care about how they feel.

或是情感風險：

I do this myself all the time.

跟非常在乎的人說自己真正的感受。

About a dozen years ago, I was on an airplane,

我自己超常做這種事。

early, early morning flight on my way to Ecuador.

大概十年前我在飛機上，

And normally, I would just put on my headphones

那是飛往厄瓜多的特早航班。

and go to sleep, wake up, do some work,

通常我會戴上耳機，

but I decided to take a little risk,

睡一覺醒來做點工作，

and I started a conversation with the man sitting next to me.

但那次我決定冒點險，

I introduced myself, and I learned that he was a publisher.

和坐我隔壁的男士聊天。

Interesting.

我向他自我介紹之後， 他告訴我他是出版商。

We ended up having a fascinating conversation.

有意思。

I learned all about the future of the publishing industry.

我們聊得非常愉快。

So about three quarters of the way through the flight,

我學到關於出版業未來的一切。

I decided to take another risk,

過了大半航程後，

and I opened up my laptop and I shared with him a book proposal

我決定再冒一次險，

I put together for something I was doing in my class.

打開筆電跟他分享我的出書計畫，

And he was very polite, he read it,

那是我為了在課堂上用 而放在一起的資料。

and he said, "You know what, Tina, this isn't right for us,

他很有禮貌讀了一下，

but thank you so much for sharing."

然後說：「婷娜， 這書不適合我的出版社，

It's OK. That risk didn't work out.

但還是很感謝你分享。」

I shut my laptop.

沒關係，這個冒險失敗。

At the end of the flight, we exchanged contact information.

我關上筆電。

A couple of months later, I reached out to him,

最後我們交換了聯絡方式。

and I said, "Mark, would you like to come to my class?

幾個月之後，我和他聯絡，

I'm doing a project on reinventing the book,

我說：「馬克， 你有興趣來我班上分享嗎？

the future of publishing."

我在做的計畫是重新創造書，

And he said, "Great. I'd love to come."

和出版的未來。」

So he came to my class. We had a great experience.

他說：「當然好啊！」

A few months later, I wrote to him again.

他到我班上， 我們有了非常棒的經驗。

This time, I sent him a bunch of video clips

幾個月之後，我又寫了封信給他。

from another project my students had done.

這次我寄給他幾段影片，

He was so intrigued

是我另一門課的學生做的。

by one of the projects the students had done,

他非常著迷於

he thought there might be a book in it,

我學生做過的其中一個計畫，

and he wanted to meet those students.

他覺得有機會出書，

I have to tell you, I was a little bit hurt.

所以想和那些學生見面。

(Laughter)

我得老實說，我有點傷心。

I mean, he wanted to do a book with my students and not with me,

（笑聲）

but OK, it's all right.

我的意思是他想幫我學生出書， 而不是幫我出，

So I invited him to come down, and he and his colleagues came to Stanford

不過沒關係啦。

and met with the students, and afterwards, we had lunch together.

我邀請他來一趟， 他和他同事到史丹佛大學

And one of his editors said to me,

和學生見面，後來我們一起吃午餐。

"Hey, have you ever considered writing a book?"

他的一個編輯問我：

I said, "Funny you should ask."

「嘿，你有想過要出書嗎？」

And I pulled out the exact same proposal

我說：「好問題。」

that I had showed his boss a year earlier.

我給他看一年前那份

Within two weeks, I had a contract,

我給他老闆看過的同一份計畫。

and within two years, the book had sold over a million copies around the world.

不到兩星期，我簽了約，

(Applause)

不到兩年，這本書賣了 超過一百萬本。

Now, you might say,

（掌聲）

"Oh, you're so lucky."

現在你們可能會說：

But of course I was lucky,

「噢！你真幸運。」

but that luck resulted from a series of small risks I took,

我當然幸運，

starting with saying hello.

但是這個幸運全是來自 一連串我冒的險，

And anyone can do this,

從我的問候開始。

no matter where you are in your life,

每個人都能這樣做，

no matter where you are in the world --

不管你在生命中的哪個階段，

even if you think you're the most unlucky person,

不論你在世界上的哪個角落，

you can do this by taking little risks that get you out of your comfort zone.

即使你覺得自己是最不幸的人，

You start building a sail to capture luck.

你也可以冒點風險， 讓自己踏出舒適圈。

The second thing you want to do

就能開始建造抓住好運的風帆。

is to change your relationship with other people.

你可以做的第二件事，

You need to understand that everyone who helps you on your journey

是改變和別人的關係。

is playing a huge role in getting you to your goals.

你要了解，在旅途中幫助你的每個人

And if you don't show appreciation,

都扮演了很重要的角色， 讓你能夠抵達目標。

not only are you not closing the loop,

如果你不表達感謝，

but you're missing an opportunity.

你不只斷了互動，

When someone does something for you,

而且也錯失了良機。

they're taking that time

當有人幫你一個忙，

that they could be spending on themselves or someone else,

他們花的那個時間

and you need to acknowledge what they're doing.

可以拿來用在自己或其他人身上，

Now, I run three fellowship programs at Stanford,

你得針對這點表示感謝。

and they are very competitive to get into,

現在我在史丹佛有三個研究計畫，

and when I send out the letters to those students who don't get in,

要獲選參加很不容易，

I always know there are going to be people who are disappointed.

我寄信給那些沒有獲選的學生同時，

Some of the people who are disappointed send me notes, complaining.

我也知道有人會很失望。

Some of them send notes

有些人會很失望，寫信跟我抱怨。

saying what could I do to make myself more successful next time around?

有些人會問，

And every once in a while,

下次要怎麼做才可以讓自己獲選？

someone sends me a note thanking me for the opportunity.

三不五時，

This happened about seven years ago.

會有人感謝我提供的這個機會。

A young man named Brian sent me a beautiful note saying,

大約七年前發生了一件事。

"I know I've been rejected from this program twice,

有個叫布萊恩的年輕人 寫了封很美的信給我，

but I want to thank you for the opportunity.

「我知道我被這個計畫拒絕了兩次，

I learned so much through the process of applying."

但我還是很感謝你給的機會。

I was so taken by the graciousness of his message

我在申請過程中獲益良多。」

that I invited him to come and meet me.

他的信讓我大受感動，

And we spent some time chatting and cooked up an idea

所以我邀請他來和我見個面。

for an independent study project together.

我們聊了一段時間，

He was on the football team at Stanford,

一起找到可以做的獨立研究計畫。

and he decided to do a project on looking at leadership in that context.

他身為史丹佛足球隊的一員，

We got to know each other incredibly well through that quarter,

決定做一個計畫， 從足球隊中觀察領導力。

and he took the project that he started working on

我們在那十五分鐘內 對彼此了解甚多，

in the independent study

他做的那個獨立研究計畫

and turned it, ultimately, into a company called Play for Tomorrow,

後來讓他開了一間叫做 「為明天而戰」的公司，

where he teaches kids from disadvantaged backgrounds

他指導家庭經濟弱勢的小孩，

how to, essentially, craft the lives they dream to live.

如何從根本打造自己夢想中的生活。

Now, the important thing about this story

這個故事的重點

is that we both ended up catching the winds of luck

在於我們都抓住了好運勢，

as a result of his thank-you note.

一切都來自於他的感謝信。

But it was the winds that we didn't expect in the first place.

但一開始我們沒有料到 會有這個好運勢。

Over the course of the last couple of years,

過去幾年來，

I've come up with some tactics for my own life

我想出一些人生策略

to help me really foster appreciation.

來幫助自己真正地培養感激之情。

My favorite is that at the end of every single day,

我最愛做的， 是每天睡前看看行事曆，

I look at my calendar and I review all the people I met with,

回想當天見過的每個人，

and I send thank-you notes to every single person.

然後寄給每個人一封感謝信。

It only takes a few minutes,

花不到幾分鐘的時間，

but at the end of every day,

但是每天結束前，

I feel incredibly grateful and appreciative,

我都覺得無比的感恩與感謝，

and I promise you it has increased my luck.

我保證我的運氣因此變好了。

So first, you need to take some risks and get out of your comfort zone.

所以首先，你要冒點險，踏出舒適圈。

Second, you need to show appreciation.

第二，你要表達感謝。

And third, you want to change your relationship with ideas.

第三，你要改變自己和點子的關係。

Most people look at new ideas that come there way and they judge them.

很多人會評斷聽到的新點子。

"That's a great idea" or "That's a terrible idea."

「這點子不錯」或「這點子真爛」。

But it's actually much more nuanced.

但其實這之間沒什麼差別。

Ideas are neither good or bad.

點子要嘛好，要嘛不好。

And in fact, the seeds of terrible ideas are often something truly remarkable.

但其實壞點子 常會發展很了不起的東西。

One of my favorite exercises in my classes on creativity

我在創意課堂上最愛的練習

is to help students foster an attitude of looking at terrible ideas

是幫助學生培養一種態度，

through the lens of possibilities.

讓他們透過「機會透視鏡」 來檢視壞點子。

So I give them a challenge:

我會出考題：

to create an idea for a brand new restaurant.

請幫一家新餐廳提出一些點子。

They have to come up with the best ideas for a new restaurant

他們會想出對新餐廳 最好的一些點子，

and the worst ideas for a new restaurant.

和最差的一些點子。

So the best ideas are things like a restaurant on a mountaintop

最棒的像是在山頂上開餐廳，

with a beautiful sunset,

可以看到超美的夕陽；

or a restaurant on a boat with a gorgeous view.

或是在船上開餐廳， 可以看到很棒的海景。

And the terrible ideas are things like a restaurant in a garbage dump,

差的像是把餐廳開在垃圾場，

or a restaurant with terrible service that's really dirty,

或是餐廳服務很差、很髒，

or a restaurant that serves cockroach sushi.

或是賣蟑螂壽司的餐廳。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

So they hand all the ideas to me,

他們交出很多點子，

I read the great ideas out loud,

我大聲唸出好點子，

and then I rip them up and throw them away.

然後撕成碎片丟掉。

I then take the horrible ideas and redistribute them.

然後我把爛點子重新分給大家。

Each team now has an idea that another team thought was horrible,

每一組都有之前別組想的爛點子，

and their challenge is to turn it into something brilliant.

他們的任務是把這個點子 轉變成超棒的點子。

Here's what happens.

神奇的事發生了。

Within about 10 seconds, someone says, "This is a fabulous idea."

不到十秒，就會有人說： 「這點子太讚了。」

And they have about three minutes before they pitch the idea to the class.

他們會有三分鐘準備， 然後要在班上發表。

So the restaurant in the garbage dump? What does that turn into?

你們猜開在垃圾場的餐廳變怎樣？

Well, they collect all the extra food from Michelin star restaurants

他們把所有米其林星級餐廳

that was going to get thrown out,

打算要丟的那些 多做的餐點收集起來，

and they have another restaurant at a much lower price,

開間新餐廳，價格低一點，

with all the leftovers.

賣的都是多做的餐。

Pretty cool?

不錯吧？

Or the restaurant that's dirty with terrible service?

那間又髒、服務又差的 餐廳變得怎樣？

Well, that turns into a restaurant that's a training ground

這間餐廳變成訓練場，

for future restauranteurs to figure out how to avoid all the pitfalls.

讓未來要當餐廳經理的人 學習怎麼避免所有陷阱。

And the restaurant with cockroach sushi?

蟑螂壽司那間變成怎樣？

It turns into a sushi bar

這家餐廳販賣

with all sorts of really interesting and exotic ingredients.

各種有趣又奇異食材做的壽司。

If you look around at the companies,

看看你身邊那些公司，

the ventures that are really innovative around you,

那些真的很創新的事業，

the ones that we now take for granted that have changed our life,

那些我們現在視為理所當然、 改變我們生活的公司，

well, you know what?

你知道嗎？

They all started out as crazy ideas.

他們都是從瘋狂的點子開始的。

They started ideas that when they pitched to other people,

他們的點子讓其他人驚聲尖叫，

most people said, "That's crazy, it will never work."

大部分的人會說： 「太誇張了啦，一定做不成。」

So, yes, sometimes people were born into terrible circumstances,

沒錯，有時候結局很慘，

and sometimes, luck is a lightning bolt

但有時候好運就這樣出奇不意

that hits us with something wonderful or something terrible.

以某種好或壞的方式 降臨在我們身上。

But the winds of luck are always there,

但好運勢一直都在，

and if you're willing to take some risks,

如果你願意冒點險，

if you're willing to really go out and show appreciation

如果你願意真的走出去表達感謝，

and willing to really look at ideas, even if they're crazy,

願意真的去看一些點子， 即使那些點子很瘋狂，

through the lens of possibilities,

只要透過機會透視鏡，