A couple years ago, my friend sent me this photo from Ürümqi,

幾年前，我朋友從烏魯木齊 傳了這張照片給我，

which is the capital of Xinjiang province in northwest China.

烏魯木齊是中國西北部 新疆省的首都。

On this particular day, she couldn't believe her eyes.

在這一天，她無法 相信她所看見的。

Checking the quality of the air outside using this app on her iPad,

她用 iPad 上的這個應用程式 來確認外面的空氣品質，

the numbers were telling her the air quality was good,

數字告訴她，空氣品質很好，

one on a scale of 500.

最高值是 500，此時只有 1。

But when she looked outside, she saw something much different.

但當她向外看， 她看到的景象完全不同。

Yes, those are buildings in the background.

是的，背景中的那些是建築物。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

But the data were simply not telling the truth

但資料呈現的，就跟大家

of what people were seeing and breathing,

看到和呼吸到的不一樣，

and it's because they were failing to measure PM2.5,

那是因為他們沒有測量 PM2.5，

or fine particulate pollution.

或稱為懸浮微粒污染。

When PM2.5 levels went off the charts in 2012,

在 2012 年， PM2.5 的值高到破表，

or "crazy bad," as the US Embassy once described it in a tweet,

美國大使館在推特上曾用 「糟到不可思議」來形容，

Chinese denizens took to social media

中國居民開始在社交媒體談論，

and they started to question why it was that they were seeing this disconnect

他們質疑為什麼 會有這種落差出現，

between official air quality statistics

官方的空氣品質統計數字 和他們親眼見到、

and what they were seeing and breathing for themselves.

親自呼吸到的實際狀況不同。

Now, this questioning has led

這些質疑導致了

to an environmental awakening of sorts in China,

中國出現環境覺醒之類的現象，

forcing China's government to tackle its pollution problems.

強迫中國政府去處理污染問題。

Now China has the opportunity to become a global environmental leader.

現在，中國有機會 成為全球的環境領袖。

But the picture that I'll paint for you today

但，我今天要跟各位分享的狀況

is one that's mixed.

是很複雜的狀況。

There are some signs that are very promising,

有一些徵兆顯示前景很好，

and there are other trends that are more troubling

也有其它的趨勢是比較堪憂的，

that warrant closer attention.

需要更密切注意。

But now let's go back to the story at hand.

但，我們現在先回到手邊的故事。

I started to witness the beginnings of China's green evolution

2011 年，我是個博士生， 在中國進行實地研究，

when I was a PhD student conducting fieldwork in China in 2011.

那時，我開始目擊了 中國綠色進化的開端。

I traveled all across the country seeking answers to the question

我造訪中國各地， 尋求一些問題的答案，

that I often got myself from the skeptical outsider:

抱持懷疑的局外人常常會問我：

What, you mean China is doing something on the environment?

你說中國有些關於環境的作為， 那是什麼意思？

They have environmental policies?

他們有環境政策了？

What policies?

什麼政策？

At that time, PM2.5 data was considered too politically sensitive

在那時，PM2.5 資料 被認為政治敏感性太高，

and so the government was keeping it secret,

所以政府把這些資料完全保密，

but citizens were becoming aware of its harmful human health effects,

但人民開始意識到它對 人類健康具有有害的影響，

and they were demanding greater transparency

他們要求政府這一邊要有

on the part of the government.

更高的透明度，

I actually started to see some of this growing evolution and awareness myself

我自己真的有看到 在中國各地都出現了進化

cropping up all over China.

且越來越多人意識到這個議題。

Department stores, for example, started to market these air purifiers

比如，百貨公司開始 行銷各種空氣淨化機，

that could filter out harmful PM2.5.

來過濾有害的 PM2.5。

Citizens were also adopting PM2.5 as the title of musical festivals.

人民也採用 PM2.5 當作音樂節的標題。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

And then I went to a golf course in Shenzhen, which is in southern China,

接著，我去深圳上一堂高爾夫 課程，深圳在中國南部，

and you can see from this banner, they're advertising a retreat from PM2.5.

各位可以看這個告示牌 宣稱此區是 PM2.5 的避難所。

Golf sub-par, but don't breathe sub-par air.

高爾夫要低於標準桿， 但呼吸的空氣不能低於標準。

And then Shanghai's Environmental Protection Bureau

接著，上海的環境保護局

decided to create a mascot named after the air quality index

決定要創造出一隻吉祥物， 以空氣品質指標（AQI）命名，

to better communicate the air quality data to its people.

才能針對空氣品質資料 和人民做更好的溝通。

I call her AQI Girl,

我叫她 AQI 女孩，

and her expression and hair color changes depending on the quality of air outside.

她的表情和髮色會跟著 外面的空氣品質而改變。

Five years later and she's still the mostly smiling face

五年後，她仍然 大部分時候都是笑臉，

of Shanghai's air quality.

代表上海的空氣品質還不錯。

And then in 2015,

接著，2015 年，

former CCTV reporter Chai Jing

前中國中央電視台記者柴靜

created this documentary called "Under the Dome."

製作了一部紀錄片《穹頂之下》。

It would be likened to Rachel Carson's "Silent Spring."

它可以被比作瑞秋卡森的 《寂靜的春天》。

And much like Rachel Carson

且就像瑞秋卡森

brought to attention the fact that pesticides were harming human health,

讓大家注意到殺蟲劑 在傷害人類健康的事實，

"Under the Dome" stamped into the popular consciousness

《穹頂之下》讓大眾能夠意識到

that air pollution was leading to one million premature deaths

每年光是在中國的空氣污染

every year in China alone.

就造成了一百萬人過早死亡。

This video garnered

僅僅一個週末

more than a hundred million views in a single weekend

這支影片的點閱率 就超過一億人次，

before China's government,

後來，中國政府

fearing that it might incite some type of social unrest,

害怕它可能會造成某種社會動盪，

pulled it from the internet.

把它從網路上撤掉。

But the damage had already been done.

但損害已經造成。

Public outcry over air pollution

大眾對於空氣污染做出強烈抗議，

galvanized China's government,

促使中國政府採取行動，

perhaps in an act of self-preservation,

也許是為了保護自我，

to think big and decisively about how it could tackle

大膽而果斷地思考

the root of its air pollution

如何解決空氣污染的根源，

and many of its other environmental problems:

並解決其它環境問題 :

its energy system.

能源系統等。

For you see, in China,

因為，在中國，

about two thirds of its electricity comes from coal.

大約三分之二的電力是來自燃煤。

China has more coal-fired power plants than any other country in the world,

中國的燃煤發電廠數量 比世界上任何國家都多，

about 40 percent of the global total,

約佔了全球的 40%，

and it's because of this fact that China's government

因為這一點，中國政府

has decided since 2014 to wage a war on coal,

決定從 2014 年開始對煤宣戰，

shutting down small coal mines,

關閉小型的煤礦坑，

setting limits on coal consumption,

設定煤的消耗限制，

even canceling an Australia's worth of coal-fired power plants.

甚至關閉了一座相當能產出 澳洲整體發電量的燃煤發電廠。

They've also been making enormous investments

他們也一直針對乾淨的

when it comes to clean and renewable energy,

可再生能源做大量的投資，

like hydropower, wind and solar,

像是水力、風力，和太陽能發電，

and the pace and the scale of this transformation

這項轉變的步調以及規模

has been absolutely mind-blowing.

十分讓人興奮。

Let me give you a couple of statistics to show you what I mean.

讓我用一些統計數字 來說明我的意思。

China leads the world when it comes to hydropower,

在水力發電上，中國領先全世界，

with a third of total capacity.

佔總發電量的三分之一。

There's enough for every Chinese citizen

那足夠讓每一位中國公民

to power two homes in a single year from hydropower alone.

光用水力發電就能供應 兩個家庭一年份的電力。

You may have heard of the Three Gorges Dam,

你們可能有聽過三峽大壩，

pictured here,

這是它的照片，

which is the largest power station in the world,

它是世界上最大的發電站，

and it's powered by water.

且是由水力來發電的。

In terms of wind power,

在風力發電方面，

China has a third of the global capacity.

中國佔了全世界總量的三分之一。

This makes it the number one leader by far.

目前為止中國是世界第一。

When we look at solar, China's also leading.

至於太陽能，中國也領先全球。

In fact, they crushed their 2020 target

事實上，他們已經 達到了 2020 年的目標，

of installing 105 gigawatts of solar power.

1050 億瓦的太陽能。

This is after the government already revised upwards

且在這之前，政府就已經數次

several times its solar energy target

於 2009 到 2015 年間 向上修正其太陽能目標。

between 2009 and 2015.

去年，僅在七個月份內，

Last year, in seven months alone,

中國就產生了驚人的 350 億瓦太陽能電力。

China was able to install a whopping 35 gigawatts of solar power.

超過美國總量的一半，

This is more than half of what the US has combined in total

且中國只用了七個月就達到。

and China did this in just seven months alone.

我們可以從太空來驗證 中國在太陽能上的驚人成長，

We can verify this remarkable growth in solar power from space,

像這張投影片上的， 是新公司 SpaceKnow 所做的。

like the startup SpaceKnow has done in this slide.

到 2020 年時，中國將能夠 光靠風力和太陽能發電，

By 2020, China is on track to generate Germany's entire electricity consumption

就能產生出德國的全國電力消耗量。

from just wind and solar power alone.

這是相當了不起的。

It's pretty darn remarkable.

現在已有證據顯示，

And we see some evidence now

中國在乾淨能量上所做的努力

that China's efforts on clean energy

是真的有影響，

is actually having an effect,

不只是讓空氣污染減少，

not just on air pollution reduction,

也改善全球的氣候變遷，

but also on global climate change,

因為中國有世界上最大的碳足跡。

where China has the world's largest carbon footprint.

從資料來看，我們可以 發現中國的煤消耗量

If we look at some of the data, we can see that China's coal consumption

可能早在 2013 年 就已經達到高峰。

may have already reached a peak as early as 2013.

主要是因為這個原因， 讓中國政府宣佈

This is a major reason why China's government announced

他們已經達成了 2020 年的碳減量誓言，

that actually they've already achieved their 2020 carbon reduction pledge

超前進度。

ahead of schedule.

煤消耗量的減少

This reduction in coal consumption

也會直接促成全國各地

is also directly driving improvements in air quality

空氣品質的改善，

across the country,

在這裡我用藍色標示。

as I've shown here in blue.

在中國大部分的大城市，

In most major Chinese cities,

空氣污染已經下降 30% 之多。

air pollution has fallen by as much as 30 percent.

而空氣污染的減少，

And this reduction in air pollution is actually leading people

讓中國人民能夠更長壽，

to live longer lives in China,

平均來說，比 2013 年 多出 2.4 年的壽命。

on average two and a half years more than they would have in 2013.

標示黃色的城市是空氣品質

In yellow, we can see the cities that have experienced

改善最多的城市。

the greatest improvements in air quality.

但，當然，就像 我在演講一開頭說的，

But of course, as I mentioned at the beginning of this talk,

我們也不能樂觀過頭，

we have to temper some of this optimism

還是要有適量的留心，

with a healthy dose of caution,

因為大部分的資料還在判讀中。

and that's largely because the data are still being determined.

去年年底，

At the end of last year,

在全球碳排放很穩定地 維持了大約三年之後，

after roughly three years of pretty steady global carbon emissions,

科學預測指出

scientific projections suggest

全球排放量可能又會再次上升，

that global emissions may be on the rise again

原因可能是因為中國 對化石燃料的消耗增加，

and that could be due to increases in China's fossil fuel consumptions,

所以，中國可能還沒有達到 我先前所呈現的高峰。

so they may not have reached that peak that I showed earlier.

但，當然，統計數字 和資料都仍然很模糊，

But of course, the statistics and the data are still murky

那是因為中國常常在看到事實後， 修正它對煤的相關統計數字。

and that's because China regularly revises its coal statistics after the fact.

其實，挺好笑的，

Actually, it's funny,

在我來這裡之前，我還一直在推特上

since I've been here I've been having a debate on Twitter

和其他的氣候建模者辯論，

with other climate modelers,

試圖想要了解中國的碳排放

trying to figure out whether China's carbon emissions

是攀升或下降， 或一直維持相對的穩定。

have gone up, gone down or whether they're staying relatively stable.

當然，中國是個仍然在 快速發展中的國家。

And of course, China is still a rapidly developing country.

它還在經歷各種政策，

It's still experimenting with a range of policies,

比如無固定停車點的共享單車，

like dockless bike sharing,

這政策被讚譽為永續交通的 一個可能解決方案。

which has been hailed as a possible sustainable transport solution.

但接著我們看到的是 這種自行車墳場的景像，

But then we have images of this bicycle graveyard

訴說一個更謹慎的故事。

that tell a more cautionary tale.

有時，解決方案可能會跑太快，

Sometimes, solutions can move too fast

趕過了需求。

and outpace demand.

當然，煤在中國仍然居王位，

And of course, coal is still king in China,

至少目前是如此。

at least for now.

所以，我們為什麼應該要在乎 中國對環境做了什麼？

So why should we care about what China is doing on the environment?

中國在國內對環境所做的事，

Well, what China does at home on the environment

對我們其他人來說， 可能會有全球性的意涵。

can have global implications for the rest of us.

借用柴靜的話，

To borrow a line from Chai Jing,

我們都在同一個穹頂之下，

we're all under the same dome,

而發源自中國的空氣污染

and air pollution that originates in China

可能會移動到國界之外的地方，

can travel beyond its borders

影響範圍可能遠至北美人口。

and affect populations as far away as those in North America.

中國不只是在出口空氣污染，

China's not only exporting air pollution,

他們也把援助、基礎設施、 技術出口到國外。

but they're also exporting aid, infrastructure, technology abroad.

2013 年，領導人習近平 宣佈了「一帶一路」計畫，

President Xi Jinping in 2013 announced the One Belt, One Road Initiative,

它是一個大規模、一兆美元的 基礎設施投資專案，

a massive, one-trillion-US-dollar infrastructure investment project

投資超過六十個國家。

in more than 60 other countries.

根據歷史，

And historically, when we've seen

當中國對國外進行 這類基礎設施投資，

that China has made these infrastructure investments abroad,

不見得都是乾淨的。

they haven't always been clean.

全球環境研究所是一個 中國的公民社會團體，

The Global Environment Institute, a Chinese civil society group,

他們在過去十五年間發現

found that in the last 15 years,

中國已經投資了 超過 240 座燃煤發電廠，

China has invested in more than 240 coal-fired power plants

位在超過 68 個國家中，

in more than 68 countries

都是和一帶一路專案有關的國家。

affiliated with the One Belt, One Road Initiative.

也就是說，中國國內的 燃煤發電量有四分之一

That's more than a quarter of China's own domestic coal-fired capacity

被出口到國外去。

that is exported abroad.

所以，雖然中國把自家清理乾淨了，

So we can see that even though China is cleaning up at home,

卻是把其中一些污染出口

it's exporting some of that pollution

到其他國家，

to other countries,

因為溫室氣體的排放是不需要護照的。

and greenhouse gas emissions simply don't have a passport.

所以，當我們還在評價 中國是否有確實地

So when we're trying to evaluate this question

在帶頭處理這些問題時，

of whether or not China is actually leading,

可以發現，這還有得辯論 沒有確定的答案。

we can see it's still very much an open debate.

但時間快用完了。

But time is running out.

我一直在研究氣候模型， 前景並不樂觀。

I've studied the climate models, and the outlook is not good.

若想要避免危險的氣候變遷

We still have a gap between current policies

目前的政策仍不足以應付。

and what needs to happen if we want to avoid dangerous climate change.

地球迫切需要的是領導力，

Leadership is what we desperately need,

但它不會來自美國，舉例來說。

but it's not coming from the US, for example.

去年六月，美國政府宣佈美國打算

The US administration last June announced its intent

退出巴黎氣候協議，

to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement,

所以現在大家都期望中國 來補上這個領導的空缺。

so now people are looking towards China to fill that leadership void.

所以中國可說是坐在駕駛座上，

So China is very much in the driver's seat

決定我們全球環境的未來。

determining our global environmental future.

他們在碳交易、乾淨能源，

What they do on carbon trading,

及空氣污染上所採取的行動，

on clean energy, on air pollution,

有很多可以讓我們學的。

we can learn many lessons.

能學到的其中一點就是 乾淨能源不只是對環境很好，

One of those lessons is that clean energy is not just good for the environment,

還因減少空氣污染而拯救生命。

it can save lives by reducing air pollution.

它也對經濟有益。

It's also good for the economy.

我們知道在去年，

We can see that last year,

全球綠色工作成長中

China was responsible for 30 percent of the global growth

有 30% 是中國的貢獻。

in green jobs.

美國的貢獻？僅 6%。

The US? Only six.

所以，我剛剛向各位描述的情況，

So the picture that I just painted for you

希望和那些模糊、朦朧的

hopefully seems much different

空氣品質統計數字有所不同，

from those murky, foggy air quality statistics

希望我有更清楚地闡述了 中國的乾淨能源狀況。

to a much clearer picture of China's clean energy.

雖然中國在朝著正確的方向前進，

And even though China is headed in the right direction,

我們知道還有很長的路要走。

we know that there's still a very long road ahead.

所以，讓我再問各位一次： 眼見就為實嗎？

So let me ask you once more: Is seeing believing?

我們能否相信 資料和統計數字所顯示的

Can we trust the data and the statistics

中國不好的空氣品質正在緩和中，

that show that China's air quality is coming down

中國對抗燃煤的戰爭真的有成？

and that its war on coal is actually having an effect?

咱們來看一些最新的衛星影像，

Well, let's take a look at some of the latest satellite images

了解中國的太陽能設施。

of China's solar power installations.

請各位非常仔細地看這張影像。

I want you to look very closely at this image.