that represents the economic history of human civilization.

這是一張圖，

[World GDP per capita over the last 200,000 years]

圖上的是人類文明的經濟歷史。

There's not much going on, is there.

【過去二十萬年的 世界人均國內生產總額】

For the vast majority of human history,

圖上沒多少東西。

pretty much everyone lived on the equivalent of one dollar per day,

人類歷史大部分的時期，

and not much changed.

幾乎人人都是一天 用一塊美金在過日子，

But then, something extraordinary happened:

沒有很大的改變。

the Scientific and Industrial Revolutions.

接著，不凡的事發生了：

And the basically flat graph you just saw

科學和工業革命。

transforms into this.

各位剛剛看到幾乎是平坦的圖形

What this graph means is that, in terms of power to change the world,

轉變成這樣。

we live in an unprecedented time in human history,

這張圖的意義是， 就改變世界的力量來說，

and I believe our ethical understanding hasn't yet caught up with this fact.

我們處在人類歷史上 前所未見的時代，

The Scientific and Industrial Revolutions

且我認為我們的倫理領會 還沒有趕上這些發展。

transformed both our understanding of the world

科學和工業革命

and our ability to alter it.

轉變了我們對世界的了解

What we need is an ethical revolution

及我們改變世界的能力。

so that we can work out

我們需要的是倫理革命，

how do we use this tremendous bounty of resources

這樣我們才能想出

to improve the world.

我們要如何使用這麼豐富的資源

For the last 10 years,

來改善世界。

my colleagues and I have developed a philosophy and research program

在過去十年間，

that we call effective altruism.

我和我同事在開發 一個哲學和研究的計畫，

It tries to respond to these radical changes in our world,

我們稱它為「有效利他主義」。

uses evidence and careful reasoning to try to answer this question:

這個計畫是在嘗試對世界上的 這些極端改變做出應變，

How can we do the most good?

使用證據和謹慎的推論 來試著回答這個問題：

Now, there are many issues you've got to address

我們要如何做至善的善事？

if you want to tackle this problem:

你需要處理許多議題，

whether to do good through your charity

才能解決這個問題：

or your career or your political engagement,

是否透過慈善事業、

what programs to focus on, who to work with.

職業或參與政治來行善，

But what I want to talk about

要投入什麼計畫，要和誰合作。

is what I think is the most fundamental problem.

但我想要談的

Of all the many problems that the world faces,

是我認為最基本的問題。

which should we be focused on trying to solve first?

世界所面臨的這麼多問題當中，

Now, I'm going to give you a framework for thinking about this question,

我們應該聚焦優先解決哪一個？

and the framework is very simple.

我要提供各位一個架構， 用來思考這個問題，

A problem's higher priority,

且這個架構很簡單。

the bigger, the more easily solvable and the more neglected it is.

優先順序高的迫切問題是

Bigger is better,

大的、容易解決的，和被忽視的。

because we've got more to gain if we do solve the problem.

越大越好，

More easily solvable is better

因為若能解決這個問題， 我們就能得到比較多。

because I can solve the problem with less time or money.

比較容易解決比較好，

And most subtly,

因為我可以花費較少的時間 和金錢來解決這個問題。

more neglected is better, because of diminishing returns.

最微妙的一點是，

The more resources that have already been invested into solving a problem,

越被忽視越好，理由是報酬遞減。

the harder it will be to make additional progress.

已經投入來解決 這個問題的資源越多，

Now, the key thing that I want to leave with you is this framework,

就越難再做出額外的進展。

so that you can think for yourself

我想要留給各位的關鍵， 就是這個架構，

what are the highest global priorities.

這樣各位就可以自己想想，

But I and others in the effective altruism community

全球最高優先順序的事是哪些。

have converged on three moral issues that we believe are unusually important,

但我和有效利他主義社區中的其他人

score unusually well in this framework.

已經有共識，我們認為 有三項道德議題是特別重要的，

First is global health.

在這個架構中得到的分數特別高。

This is supersolvable.

第一是全球健康。

We have an amazing track record in global health.

這個議題是超級可以解決的。

Rates of death from measles, malaria, diarrheal disease

關於全球健康，我們有 很驚人的過去記錄資料。

are down by over 70 percent.

麻疹、霍亂、痢疾的死亡率

And in 1980, we eradicated smallpox.

下降了超過 70%。

I estimate we thereby saved over 60 million lives.

1980 年，我們根絕了天花。

That's more lives saved than if we'd achieved world peace

依我估計，這就拯救了 超過六千萬條性命。

in that same time period.

就算能在那個時期達成世界和平，

On our current best estimates,

也救不了這麼多人。

we can save a life by distributing long-lasting insecticide-treated bed nets

依我們目前最佳的估計，

for just a few thousand dollars.

只要能發放用殺蟲劑處理過的 持久性蚊帳就能拯救一條性命，

This is an amazing opportunity.

成本不過幾千美元。

The second big priority is factory farming.

這是一個很棒的機會。

This is superneglected.

第二個優先議題，是工廠化養殖。

There are 50 billion land animals used every year for food,

這個議題被嚴重忽略了。

and the vast majority of them are factory farmed,

每年，有五百億隻陸地動物被食用，

living in conditions of horrific suffering.

牠們絕大多數都是工廠化養殖的，

They're probably among the worst-off creatures on this planet,

生活條件非常惡劣、痛苦。

and in many cases, we could significantly improve their lives

牠們可能是地球上最不幸的生物，

for just pennies per animal.

在許多案例中，我們都可以 大幅改善牠們的生活，

Yet this is hugely neglected.

每隻動物只要幾分錢即可。

There are 3,000 times more animals in factory farms

但這個議題卻被嚴重忽視。

than there are stray pets,

工廠化養殖的動物數量

but yet, factory farming gets one fiftieth of the philanthropic funding.

比街頭流浪的寵物要多三千倍，

That means additional resources in this area

但工廠化養殖得到的慈善資金 卻只有五十分之一。

could have a truly transformative impact.

這就意味著，在這個領域 若有額外的資源，

Now the third area is the one that I want to focus on the most,

就能產生真正帶來改變的影響。

and that's the category of existential risks:

第三個領域是我最想要拿來談的，

events like a nuclear war or a global pandemic

就是生存風險這個類別：

that could permanently derail civilization

像核武戰爭或全球流行病這類事件，

or even lead to the extinction of the human race.

能夠讓文明永久脫軌，

Let me explain why I think this is such a big priority

或甚至導致人類的滅絕。

in terms of this framework.

讓我用這個架構 來解釋為什麼我認為

First, size.

這是個高優先的議題。

How bad would it be if there were a truly existential catastrophe?

首先，大小。

Well, it would involve the deaths of all seven billion people on this planet

如果真的發生了 攸關生死存亡的大災難會多糟？

and that means you and everyone you know and love.

嗯，

That's just a tragedy of unimaginable size.

它會牽涉到地球上 全部七十億人的存亡，

But then, what's more,

包括你和你認識、你愛的所有人。

it would also mean the curtailment of humanity's future potential,

這個悲劇大到無法想像。

and I believe that humanity's potential is vast.

但，還不只如此，

The human race has been around for about 200,000 years,

它也意味著人類未來的 潛能會被限制，

and if she lives as long as a typical mammalian species,

而我相信人類的潛能很大。

she would last for about two million years.

人類已經存在有大約二十萬年了，

If the human race were a single individual,

如果人類能活得跟典型的 哺乳動物物種一樣久，

she would be just 10 years old today.

就能活大約兩百萬年。

And what's more, the human race isn't a typical mammalian species.

如果把整體人類看成是單一個體，

There's no reason why, if we're careful,

人類現在才只有十歲而已。

we should die off after only two million years.

此外，人類並不是 典型的哺乳動物物種。

The earth will remain habitable for 500 million years to come.

如果我們夠小心，

And if someday, we took to the stars,

我們不可能只存在 兩百萬年就絕種。

the civilization could continue for billions more.

在接下來的五億年， 地球都仍然會是適合居住的。

So I think the future is going to be really big,

若有一天，我們能到其他星球，

but is it going to be good?

文明就還可以再延續數十億年。

Is the human race even really worth preserving?

所以我認為未來將會非常大，

Well, we hear all the time about how things have been getting worse,

但未來會很好嗎？

but I think that when we take the long run,

人類真的值得保護嗎？

things have been getting radically better.

嗯，我們總是聽到有人說 事物變得更糟糕，

Here, for example, is life expectancy over time.

但我認為，從長期來看，

Here's the proportion of people not living in extreme poverty.

一切都徹底地變好了。

Here's the number of countries over time that have decriminalized homosexuality.

比如，這是各時期的預期壽命。

Here's the number of countries over time that have become democratic.

這是非處於極度貧窮 生活條件的人口比例。

Then, when we look to the future, there could be so much more to gain again.

這是各時期讓同性戀 合法化的國家數目。

We'll be so much richer,

這是各時期民主國家的數目。

we can solve so many problems that are intractable today.

當我們看向未來，會發現 還有好多可以獲得的。

So if this is kind of a graph of how humanity has progressed

我們會富有許多，

in terms of total human flourishing over time,

我們能夠解決許多現今的棘手問題。

well, this is what we would expect future progress to look like.

如果就全人類隨時間 而過得更好的層面上來看，

It's vast.

這張圖算是某種人類進步圖，

Here, for example,

那麼我們預期未來進步 會是像這樣子的。

is where we would expect no one to live in extreme poverty.

它很廣大。

Here is where we would expect everyone to be better off

以這一點為例，

than the richest person alive today.

我們預期到這時候就沒有人 會過著極度貧窮的生活。

Perhaps here is where we would discover the fundamental natural laws

在這裡，我們預期人人都會

that govern our world.

比現今最富有的人過得更好。

Perhaps here is where we discover an entirely new form of art,

也許在這裡，我們會 發現管理我們世界的

a form of music we currently lack the ears to hear.

基本自然法則。

And this is just the next few thousand years.

也許在這裡，我們會 發現全新的藝術形式，

Once we think past that,

我們目前沒有辦法聽見的音樂形式。

well, we can't even imagine the heights that human accomplishment might reach.

這只是接下來的幾千年。

So the future could be very big and it could be very good,

一旦我們想到更遠的時間，

but are there ways we could lose this value?

我們甚至無法想像 人類的成就能夠有多高。

And sadly, I think there are.

所以，未來可能是非常大， 也可能是非常好的，

The last two centuries brought tremendous technological progress,

但我們會不會 以某些方式失去這價值？

but they also brought the global risks of nuclear war

很不幸，我認為有可能。

and the possibility of extreme climate change.

過去兩個世紀， 發生了很巨大的技術進步，

When we look to the coming centuries,

但也帶來了核武戰爭的全球風險，

we should expect to see the same pattern again.

以及極端氣候改變的可能性。

And we can see some radically powerful technologies on the horizon.

當我們看向接下來的幾世紀，

Synthetic biology might give us the power to create viruses

我們應該會預期 再次看到同樣的模式。

of unprecedented contagiousness and lethality.

我們能看到一些 極強大的技術即將問世。

Geoengineering might give us the power to dramatically alter the earth's climate.

合成生物學可能讓我們能創造出

Artificial intelligence might give us the power to create intelligent agents

具有前所未見感染力 和致命度的病毒。

with abilities greater than our own.

地球工程可能讓我們 能大大改變地球的氣候。

Now, I'm not saying that any of these risks are particularly likely,

人工智慧可能讓我們能創造出

but when there's so much at stake,

才能比我們更好的智慧代理人。

even small probabilities matter a great deal.

我並不是說上述這些風險 特別有可能發生，

Imagine if you're getting on a plane and you're kind of nervous,

但當賭注有這麼高的時候，

and the pilot reassures you by saying,

即使很低的機率也是非常要緊的。

"There's only a one-in-a-thousand chance of crashing. Don't worry."

想像一下，如果你要 上飛機，且你蠻緊張的，

Would you feel reassured?

而駕駛員說了 這樣的話來向你保證：

For these reasons, I think that preserving the future of humanity

「墜機的機會只有 一千分之一。別擔心。」

is among the most important problems that we currently face.

你會覺得安心嗎？

But let's keep using this framework.

基於這些理由， 我認為保護人類的未來

Is this problem neglected?

是我們目前所面臨 最重要的問題之一。

And I think the answer is yes,

但，咱們繼續用這個架構吧。

and that's because problems that affect future generations

這個問題有被忽視嗎？

are often hugely neglected.

我認為答案是「有」，

Why?

那是因為會影響未來世代的問題

Because future people don't participate in markets today.

通常被嚴重忽視。

They don't have a vote.

為什麼？

It's not like there's a lobby representing the interests

因為未來的人並沒有 參與現今的市場。

of those born in 2300 AD.

他們沒有投票權。

They don't get to influence the decisions we make today.

並沒有一個遊說團會代表

They're voiceless.

2300 年出生者的利益。

And that means we still spend a paltry amount on these issues:

他們無法影響我們現今所做的決策。

nuclear nonproliferation,

他們無法發聲。

geoengineering, biorisk,

那就表示，我們在 這些議題上投入非常少：

artificial intelligence safety.

防止核武器擴散、

All of these receive only a few tens of millions of dollars

地球工程、生物危險、

of philanthropic funding every year.

人工智慧安全性。

That's tiny compared to the 390 billion dollars

所有這些議題每年都只得到

that's spent on US philanthropy in total.

幾千萬美元的慈善資金。

The final aspect of our framework then:

這個數字相對很小， 因為美國的總慈善金額

Is this solvable?

為三千九百億美元。

I believe it is.

接著，架構的最後一個面向：

You can contribute with your money,

它是可解決的嗎？

your career or your political engagement.

我相信是的。

With your money, you can support organizations

你可以貢獻你的金錢、

that focus on these risks,

你的職業，或你的政治參與。

like the Nuclear Threat Initiative,

若你投入金錢，你可以資助組織，

which campaigns to take nuclear weapons off hair-trigger alert,

讓它們著重這些風險，

or the Blue Ribbon Panel, which develops policy to minimize the damage

比如「核威脅倡議」，

from natural and man-made pandemics,

它在做的是不要讓核武 處在一觸即發的警戒狀態，

or the Center for Human-Compatible AI, which does technical research

或「藍絲帶小組」， 它在做的是開發政策，

to ensure that AI systems are safe and reliable.

把自然發生和人為造成的流行病 所造成的影響給最小化，

With your political engagement,

或「人類相容人工智慧中心」， 它是在做技術研究，

you can vote for candidates that care about these risks,

確保人工智慧系統的安全可靠。

and you can support greater international cooperation.

若你投入的是政治參與，

And then with your career, there is so much that you can do.

你可以投票給在乎 這些風險的候選人，

Of course, we need scientists and policymakers and organization leaders,

你也可以支持更大的國際合作。

but just as importantly,

若你投入的是職業， 你能做的非常多。

we also need accountants and managers and assistants

當然，我們需要科學家、 政策制訂者，和組織領導人，

to work in these organizations that are tackling these problems.

但，同樣重要的，

Now, the research program of effective altruism

我們也需要會計師、經理人和助理，

is still in its infancy,

在這些能夠處理 這些問題的組織中工作。

and there's still a huge amount that we don't know.

有效利他主義的研究專案

But even with what we've learned so far,

還在初期階段，

we can see that by thinking carefully

還有很多我們不知道的。

and by focusing on those problems that are big, solvable and neglected,

但，就我們目前所知道的來說，

we can make a truly tremendous difference to the world

我們可以看到，若能謹慎思考，

for thousands of years to come.

並把焦點放在那些可解決、 被忽視的大問題上，

Thank you.

我們就能在接下來的數千年，

(Applause)

真正造成很大的不同，改變世界。