but I've really learned to appreciate them.

我並不是一直很喜歡始料未及的後果，

I've learned that they're really the essence

但我已經學著欣賞他們了。

of what makes for progress,

我已經學到這是

even when they seem to be terrible.

我們進步的原動力，

And I'd like to review

就算這些後果可能是很可怕的

just how unintended consequences

所以我想要談談

play the part that they do.

這些始料未及的後果

Let's go to 40,000 years before the present,

是如何扮演它們的角色的。

to the time of the cultural explosion,

讓我們回到四萬年前，

when music, art, technology,

一段文明爆炸的時間，

so many of the things that we're enjoying today,

一段音樂、藝術、科技，

so many of the things that are being demonstrated at TED

這些我們現在所享受的東西，

were born.

很多在TED被展示的東西

And the anthropologist Randall White

開始的時代。

has made a very interesting observation:

人類學家Randall White

that if our ancestors

觀察到一個很有趣的現象：

40,000 years ago

就是就算我們的祖先

had been able to see

在四萬年前

what they had done,

已經可以看到

they wouldn't have really understood it.

他們做了什麼，

They were responding

他們仍然沒有辦法完全瞭解。

to immediate concerns.

他們只是對著

They were making it possible for us

當下的問題做反應。

to do what they do,

他們只是想要讓我們

and yet, they didn't really understand

可以做到他們所做的，

how they did it.

但他們不完全瞭解

Now let's advance to 10,000 years before the present.

他們是如何辦到的。

And this is when it really gets interesting.

現在，讓我們來到一萬年前。

What about the domestication of grains?

而這會變得很有趣。

What about the origins of agriculture?

穀類是如何被馴化的？

What would our ancestors 10,000 years ago

農業是如何開始的？

have said

一萬年前的人

if they really had technology assessment?

如果有科技評估報告的話

And I could just imagine the committees

他們會怎麼說？

reporting back to them

我可以想像

on where agriculture was going to take humanity,

委員會向他們報告

at least in the next few hundred years.

至少在接下來的幾百年間，

It was really bad news.

農業如何影響人類

First of all, worse nutrition,

這真的是壞消息。

maybe shorter life spans.

第一，較差的營養，

It was simply awful for women.

有可能會造成較短的生命。

The skeletal remains from that period

對女人來說更是糟糕。

have shown that they were grinding grain morning, noon and night.

從那段時間留下的骨骸

And politically, it was awful.

告訴我們他們從早到晚都在磨穀子。

It was the beginning of a much higher degree

政治上也很糟糕。

of inequality among people.

那是人群間更加不平等

If there had been rational technology assessment then,

的開始。

I think they very well might have said,

如果當時有很理性的科技評估報告，

"Let's call the whole thing off."

我認為他們很有可能說：

Even now, our choices are having unintended effects.

「讓我們中止這個案子吧。」

Historically, for example,

就算是現在，我們的選擇仍然有很始料未及的後果。

chopsticks -- according to one Japanese anthropologist

歷史上，舉例來說，

who wrote a dissertation about it

筷子--根據日本人類學家

at the University of Michigan --

在密西根大學

resulted in long-term changes

寫的研究報告--

in the dentition, in the teeth,

已長期性地造成

of the Japanese public.

日本大眾牙齒中牙列

And we are also changing our teeth right now.

的改變。

There is evidence

而且我們現在也正在改變我們的牙齒。

that the human mouth and teeth

這是人類

are growing smaller all the time.

嘴巴和牙齒正在

That's not necessarily a bad unintended consequence.

越長越小的證據。

But I think from the point of view of a Neanderthal,

那並不表示這個始料未及的後果一定是不好的。

there would have been a lot of disapproval

但我認為以尼安德塔人的觀點來看，

of the wimpish choppers that we now have.

他們對於我們現在擁有的切菜器

So these things are kind of relative

會有很多不贊成的聲音。

to where you or your ancestors happen to stand.

所以這些事其實是相對的，

In the ancient world

與你和你的祖先間的關係有關。

there was a lot of respect for unintended consequences,

在古早時代，

and there was a very healthy sense of caution,

大家很尊重這些始料未及的後果，

reflected in the Tree of Knowledge,

且也有很健康的謹慎感，

in Pandora's Box,

像是智慧樹，

and especially in the myth of Prometheus

像是潘朵拉的盒子；

that's been so important

尤其體現在普羅米修斯的神話中，

in recent metaphors about technology.

亦是近幾年來

And that's all very true.

常被用在科技的隱喻。

The physicians of the ancient world --

而這些都是真的。

especially the Egyptians,

遠古時代的醫生--

who started medicine as we know it --

尤其是埃及人--

were very conscious

近代醫學的開創者--

of what they could and couldn't treat.

是非常謹慎地對待

And the translations of the surviving texts say,

可以治及不可以治的課題。

"This I will not treat. This I cannot treat."

而在現存的文本上說到：

They were very conscious.

「這個我可以治。這個我不能治。」

So were the followers of Hippocrates.

他們是非常謹慎的。

The Hippocratic manuscripts also --

希波克拉底斯的跟隨者也是如此。

repeatedly, according to recent studies --

根據現今的研究，

show how important it is not to do harm.

希波克拉底斯的手稿一再地提到

More recently,

不造成傷害是多麼重要的。

Harvey Cushing,

更近一點，

who really developed neurosurgery as we know it,

哈維庫欣，

who changed it from a field of medicine

也就是讓神經外科手術發展成現今樣子的人，

that had a majority of deaths resulting from surgery

一個完全改寫此一醫學領域的人，

to one in which there was a hopeful outlook,

亦是一個從一開始大部份手術失敗

he was very conscious

到後來成為執行手術最有希望成功的人，

that he was not always going to do the right thing.

他是非常謹慎的，

But he did his best,

但他不見得每一次都做對了。

and he kept meticulous records

但他已經盡力了，

that let him transform that branch of medicine.

他做了非常精細的紀錄，

Now if we look forward a bit

讓他改寫了醫學中的這個領域。

to the 19th century,

讓我們再往前看一點

we find a new style of technology.

來到十九世紀，

What we find is,

我們找到科技的新面貌。

no longer simple tools,

我們找到的是，

but systems.

不再使用簡單的器具，

We find more and more

而改使用系統。

complex arrangements of machines

我們找到愈來愈多

that make it harder and harder

以複雜的組合而成的機器，

to diagnose what's going on.

讓我們愈來愈難察覺

And the first people who saw that

到底發生了什麼事情。

were the telegraphers of the mid-19th century,

第一個發現這個問題的人是

who were the original hackers.

是十九世紀中葉的電報員，

Thomas Edison would have been very, very comfortable

也是最早的駭客。

in the atmosphere of a software firm today.

愛迪生在現今的軟體公司

And these hackers had a word

應該會過得非常非常好。

for those mysterious bugs in telegraph systems

而這些駭客

that they called bugs.

給那些電報系統中的錯誤取了名字，

That was the origin of the word "bug."

就叫作蟲子。

This consciousness, though,

這就是為什麼現在叫這些錯誤「蟲子」。

was a little slow to seep through the general population,

這樣的想法

even people who were very, very well informed.

並沒有很快的滲入大眾，

Samuel Clemens, Mark Twain,

就算是那些很有知識的人也沒有特別瞭解到這點。

was a big investor

Samuel Clemens也就是馬克吐溫

in the most complex machine of all times --

是至少到1918年

at least until 1918 --

是美國專利局當中

registered with the U.S. Patent Office.

最複雜的機器

That was the Paige typesetter.

的大投資者。

The Paige typesetter

那就是派及打字機。

had 18,000 parts.

派及打字機

The patent had 64 pages of text

總共有一萬八千個零件。

and 271 figures.

專利總共有64頁文字

It was such a beautiful machine

和271張圖。

because it did everything that a human being did

那是個非常棒的機器，

in setting type --

因為它做到一個人在準備模板時做的

including returning the type to its place,

所有事情，

which was a very difficult thing.

包括把模板回覆原樣，

And Mark Twain, who knew all about typesetting,

這是件非常難的事。

really was smitten by this machine.

馬克吐溫，這個瞭解所有關於字體模板的人，

Unfortunately, he was smitten in more ways than one,

非常迷戀這部機器。

because it made him bankrupt,

不幸的，他不止在一方面的痴戀著這部機器，

and he had to tour the world speaking

因為這讓他破產了，

to recoup his money.

所以他需要到處去演講

And this was an important thing

才能賺回些錢。

about 19th century technology,

這對十九世紀的科技來說，

that all these relationships among parts

是件重要的事，

could make the most brilliant idea fall apart,

這些不同零件間的關係

even when judged by the most expert people.

可以讓最傑出的想法崩壞，

Now there is something else, though, in the early 20th century

就算是最專業的人士來看亦是如此。

that made things even more complicated.

在二十世紀有件事發生了，

And that was that safety technology itself

讓整件事變得更複雜了。

could be a source of danger.

就算是在安全技術上

The lesson of the Titanic, for a lot of the contemporaries,

都有可能有危險。

was that you must have enough lifeboats

鐵達尼號的教訓是

for everyone on the ship.

你一定要有足夠載

And this was the result

全船所有人的救生艇。

of the tragic loss of lives

而這是透過

of people who could not get into them.

犧牲那些無法做到救生艇的人

However, there was another case, the Eastland,

才得到的結果。

a ship that capsized in Chicago Harbor in 1915,

但是，也有另外一個例子。在Eastland，

and it killed 841 people --

1915年在芝加哥海灣有個滿載的船

that was 14 more

犧牲了841條人命，

than the passenger toll of the Titanic.

比鐵達尼號

The reason for it, in part, was

的總人數還多14人。

the extra life boats that were added

這個意外的部份原因是

that made this already unstable ship

船上載了太多救生艇，

even more unstable.

讓這艘不穩定的船

And that again proves

更加的不穩定。

that when you're talking about unintended consequences,

這再次證明了

it's not that easy to know

在討論始料未及的後果時，

the right lessons to draw.

很難確切知道

It's really a question of the system, how the ship was loaded,

到底應該要學到什麼。

the ballast and many other things.

在這個案例上最重要的是船如何裝載貨物的，

So the 20th century, then,

壓載量和其他東西的配合。

saw how much more complex reality was,

所以在二十世紀，

but it also saw a positive side.

我們看到現實是多麼複雜的，

It saw that invention

但是以一個好的方面來看的。

could actually benefit from emergencies.

我們看到許多發明

It could benefit

可以在災難中受益。

from tragedies.

也可以在

And my favorite example of that --

悲劇事件中受益。

which is not really widely known

而我最喜歡的例子是--

as a technological miracle,

並不是大眾所認為的

but it may be one of the greatest of all times,

科技奇蹟，

was the scaling up of penicillin in the Second World War.

但有可能是古今最棒的發明之一，

Penicillin was discovered in 1928,

就是在第二次世界大戰盤尼西林的大量生產。

but even by 1940,

盤尼西林在1928年被發現，

no commercially and medically useful quantities of it

但一直到1940年

were being produced.

仍然沒有達成任何商業上或是醫學上

A number of pharmaceutical companies were working on it.

的實用量產階段。

They were working on it independently,

有一些藥廠正在研究這個。

and they weren't getting anywhere.

他們各自對它做研究，

And the Government Research Bureau

但他們並沒有發現什麼。

brought representatives together

然後國家研究組織

and told them that this is something

將這些藥廠的代表們集合起來

that has to be done.

跟他們說他們

And not only did they do it,

必須做些什麼。

but within two years,

他們不但做到了，

they scaled up penicillin

且在兩年內，

from preparation in one-liter flasks

將盤尼西林從

to 10,000-gallon vats.

一公升燒瓶製備的規模

That was how quickly penicillin was produced

量產成一萬加侖大桶子的量。

and became one of the greatest medical advances of all time.

盤尼西林可以這麼快地被生產，

In the Second World War, too,

而且成為醫學上一個無法取代的進展。

the existence

同樣在第二次世界大戰，

of solar radiation

英國輻射測量中心

was demonstrated by studies of interference

測量到

that was detected by the radar stations of Great Britain.

輻射干擾而證明了

So there were benefits in calamities --

太陽輻射的存在。

benefits to pure science,

這對災害研究是有益的--

as well as to applied science

對純科學有益，

and medicine.

對應用科學有益，

Now when we come to the period after the Second World War,

對醫學有益。

unintended consequences get even more interesting.

現在當我們來到第二次世界大戰之後的時代，

And my favorite example of that

無心的後果變得越來越有趣了。

occurred beginning in 1976,

而我最喜歡的例子是

when it was discovered

在1976年初發生的事情。

that the bacteria causing Legionnaires disease

在那年初

had always been present in natural waters,

造成發現退伍軍人病的細菌

but it was the precise temperature of the water

一直都存在於自然水中，

in heating, ventilating and air conditioning systems

但在通風、空調系統中，

that raised the right temperature

水溫剛好被

for the maximum reproduction

加熱至

of Legionella bacillus.

適合讓退伍軍人病菌

Well, technology to the rescue.

可以大量繁殖的溫度。

So chemists got to work,

當然，科技來解決問題。

and they developed a bactericide

所以化學家研究了一下，

that became widely used in those systems.

他們發明了一種殺菌劑，

But something else happened in the early 1980s,

後來在空調系統中被廣泛使用。

and that was that there was a mysterious epidemic

但在1980年代也發生了一些事情，

of failures of tape drives

就是全美國的磁帶播放器

all over the United States.

都莫名其妙地

And IBM, which made them,

突然不能用了。

just didn't know what to do.

製造廠商ＩＢＭ

They commissioned a group of their best scientists

完全不知道該怎麼辦。

to investigate,

他們帶來了一組最好的科學家

and what they found was

來研究這個問題，

that all these tape drives

然後發現

were located near ventilation ducts.

這些磁帶播放器

What happened was the bactericide was formulated

都放在通風口附近。

with minute traces of tin.

事實上是上述殺菌劑

And these tin particles were deposited on the tape heads

會製造微量的錫。

and were crashing the tape heads.

而且這些錫粒子會附著在播放器的磁頭上

So they reformulated the bactericide.

讓整個磁頭壞掉。

But what's interesting to me

所以他們更改了殺菌劑的配方。

is that this was the first case

但我覺得這個例子有趣的是

of a mechanical device

這大概是第一次

suffering, at least indirectly, from a human disease.

機械儀器

So it shows that we're really all in this together.

因為人類疾病而受到損壞。

(Laughter)

所以這告訴我們我們跟這一切都有關。

In fact, it also shows something interesting,

（笑聲）

that although our capabilities and technology

事實上，這也告訴我們另一件有趣的事，

have been expanding geometrically,

就是雖然我們的科技

unfortunately, our ability to model their long-term behavior,

正在以指數成長，

which has also been increasing,

但不幸的，我們預測長期結果的能力

has been increasing only arithmetically.

卻僅僅以

So one of the characteristic problems of our time

線性成長罷了。

is how to close this gap

所以我們現今面臨的大問題是

between capabilities and foresight.

要如何縮小

One other very positive consequence

這兩者中間的差距。

of 20th century technology, though,

另外一個二十世紀科技

was the way in which other kinds of calamities

的重要正面結果是

could lead to positive advances.