Name: FT記者對2019年的預測 (FT correspondents' predictions for 2019)
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T08:02:34.000Z
Duration: 3 min 20 s

Here in India, people are on tenterhooks as the country gears up for next year's general elections when Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be seeking a second five-year term.

在印度，即將來臨的大選讓人民如坐針氈，現任總理莫迪將爭取第二任的五年任期。

Predicting the outcome of Indian elections is notoriously difficult, given the country's diversity.

由於這個國家豐富的多樣性，大家都明白印度選舉結果一向很難預測。

But Indians are united in the hope that they will retain their place as the world's fastest growing large economy, and create more of the millions of jobs so desperately needed.

不過全體人民都盼望著印度能持續扮演龐大經濟體中成長最快速的角色，並能創造出數百萬份工作來滿足迫切需求。

What is likely to happen in Italy in 2019?

2019 年義大利可能會發生什麼事呢？

Well, at the moment, all eyes are on the spat between the Italian government and Brussels over Rome's spending plans, which have also alarmed financial markets.

布魯塞爾與羅馬之間關於政府支出規劃的爭論是目前的關注焦點，且造成金融市場的不安。

I think these concerns are likely to fade somewhat going into the start of 2019 and then potentially reemerge in the build up to the campaign for the European elections.

我認為在今年初這些疑慮會暫時消退，直到後續歐盟選舉活動時，可能還會再度延燒。

These elections are being targeted by Matthias Albany, the Interior Minister and leader of the league party, as a way of boosting his political momentum on a national level.

義大利內政部長、聯盟黨領袖 Matthias Albany 已鎖定歐盟選舉，打算用來提高國內政治聲量。

Mexico kicks off 2019 with a brand new president: Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.

新的一年墨西哥有了新總統：Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador。

The big hope is that he actually delivers, especially on reducing corruption and impunity.

人們期盼他確實執行，尤其是在打擊貪腐以及縱放犯人方面。

Turkey is home to a million school-age Syrian refugee children.

土耳其收容了一百萬名敘利亞籍難民學童，

And the country hopes to get a long way next year towards its aim of getting all of them into the mainstream Turkish education system.

儘管有很長的路要走，政府想將這些孩童送進土耳其主流教育體制，希望今年能更靠近此目標。

Here in Moscow, the big hope for 2019 would be some kind of easing of tensions between Russia and the West that have led to four and a half years worth of sanctions against Moscow.

莫斯科政府今年希望能緩和與西方的衝突情勢；兩方的緊張關係已讓對莫斯科的制裁持續了四年半。

In a perfect world, that would involve the conclusion of investigations in Washington, proving there was no collusion between President Donald Trump's campaign and the Russians.

最理想的情況是華盛頓方面終結調查，證實俄方在大選中並未與川普總統勾結。

If sanctions were eased, that could mean foreign investors come back to Russia and trade increases, helping prop up the ruble and increasing the Russian stock market.

假設制裁中止以後，外資可能回流、撐起貨幣盧布與俄羅斯股市。

In a region that's always busy with news, 2019 is expected to be even more so.

在這個新聞多到眼花撩亂的地區，2019 年八成會更加熱烈。

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has found himself embroiled in a series of overlapping investigations.

以色列首相 Benjamin Netanyahu 身陷一系列的檢調風波。

Now, both he and the country are waiting to see if Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit will accept police recommendations.

現在整個國家都等著看司法部長 Avichai Mandelblit 是否會依警方建議啟動調查。

Secondly, both Israelis and Palestinians are waiting to see whether or not US President Donald Trump will finally unveil his long promised deal of the century.

除此之外，以巴兩方都在等著看川普總統究竟會不會實現他的世紀諾言。

It was a promise by the White House to bring Israelis and Palestinians to the negotiating table.

白宮承諾會促使以色列與巴勒斯坦重回談判桌。

Here in the Nordic-Baltic region, 2019 will be a year of elections.

在北歐—波羅的海地區，2019 是選舉之年。

There are votes in Estonia, Finland, and Denmark with the possibility of new elections in Sweden.

在愛沙尼亞、芬蘭、丹麥都有選舉，瑞典也可能會有。

The hope will be that forming a viable government is possible.

人民希望能夠打造有作為的新政府，

And for that, it will be crucial to see how much populist parties gain.

而民粹政黨之得票多寡將是關鍵。

Hong Kong sits on the front line of a nascent political and economic battle between Xi Jinping's China and the West.

習近平統治下的中國與西方針鋒相對，而香港正處於這新衝突的前線。

My greatest hope is that the US and China eventually learn to live with the profound differences between them and that perhaps the Communist Party learns that by taking a softer line, it might also give itself more breathing space.

我的期望是中、美雙方最終都能接受彼此深刻的差異；又或許中國共產黨能體認到適時的讓步，反而能為自己保留生存空間。