and we do not intend to change our position

「伊朗是以色列最好的朋友，

in relation to Tehran."

我們並不打算因德黑蘭

Believe it or not, this is a quote

而改變態度。」

from an Israeli prime minister,

你們相信嗎

but it's not Ben-Gurion or Golda Meir

這句話出自一位以色列的總理

from the era of the Shah.

但並不是本-古里安或戈尔迪·梅厄

It's actually from Yitzhak Rabin.

在伊朗沙王治國時期的那些總理

The year is 1987.

而是伊札克·拉賓

Ayatollah Khomeini is still alive,

西元1987年

and much like Ahmadinejad today,

伊朗最高領袖何梅尼還在世

he's using the worst rhetoric against Israel.

而他就像現任總統艾馬丹加一樣

Yet, Rabin referred to Iran

針對以色列發表很糟的言論

as a geostrategic friend.

但拉賓還是將伊朗

Today, when we hear the threats of war

稱為地理上的戰略夥伴

and the high rhetoric,

今天當我們聽到那些

we're oftentimes led to believe

戰爭威脅以及情緒激昂的言論時

that this is yet another one of those unsolvable

我們常常因此相信

Middle Eastern conflicts

這又是另一個

with roots as old as the region itself.

中東地區難解的衝突

Nothing could be further from the truth,

就像當地的宗教淵源一樣古老

and I hope today to show you why that is.

但是這並不是對的

The relations between the Iranian and the Jewish people

我希望今天能告訴你們為何並非如此

throughout history has actually been quite positive,

伊朗人和猶太人的關係

starting in 539 B.C.,

從歷史上來看其實一直很正面

when King Cyrus the Great of Persia

西元前539年

liberated the Jewish people from their Babylonian captivity.

波斯國王賽羅斯

A third of the Jewish population

將猶太人民從巴別塔中釋放出來

stayed in Babylonia.

三分之一的猶太人

They're today's Iraqi Jews.

定居在巴比隆尼亞

A third migrated to Persia.

他們就是今天的伊拉克猶太人

They're today's Iranian Jews,

另外三分之一移民到波斯

still 25,000 of them living in Iran,

他們是今天的伊朗猶太人

making them the largest Jewish community

有2萬5千人還住在伊朗

in the Middle East outside of Israel itself.

是現今中東除了

And a third returned to historic Palestine,

以色列以外最大的猶太社群

did the second rebuilding of the Temple in Jerusalem,

最後三分之一 回到歷史淵遠的巴勒斯坦

financed, incidentally, by Persian tax money.

二次重建耶路撒冷聖殿

But even in modern times,

順帶一提，他們用的是波斯人的納稅錢

relations have been close at times.

但即使在今天

Rabin's statement was a reflection

他們的關係曾經緊密過

of decades of security and intelligence collaboration

拉賓的言論重新讓我們反思

between the two, which in turn

過去幾十年這兩個國家的國安協防

was born out of perception of common threats.

和情報合作

Both states feared the Soviet Union

其實是源於感到共同的威脅

and strong Arab states such as Egypt and Iraq.

兩個國家都害怕蘇聯

And, in addition, the Israeli doctrine of the periphery,

以及強大的阿拉伯國家如埃及和伊拉克

the idea that Israel's security was best achieved

而且以色列的國土安全

by creating alliances with the non-Arab states

是主張以色列的國家安全可以通過

in the periphery of the region

與周圍的非阿拉伯國家結盟得到保障

in order to balance the Arab states in its vicinity.

才能在這特殊地帶

Now, from the Shah's perspective, though,

與阿拉伯國家的勢力抗衡

he wanted to keep this as secret as possible,

但從伊朗沙王的角度來看

so when Yitzhak Rabin, for instance,

卻希望越少人知道這件事越好

traveled to Iran in the '70s,

所以舉例來說，當拉賓

he usually wore a wig

他在70年代到伊朗時

so that no one would recognize him.

通常會戴頂假髮

The Iranians built a special tarmac

這樣就沒有人認得出他來

at the airport in Tehran, far away from the central terminal,

伊朗還鋪了一道特殊的飛機跑道

so that no one would notice the large number

在德黑蘭機場，離中央航廈很遠

of Israeli planes shuttling between Tel Aviv and Tehran.

這樣就沒人會注意到

Now, did all of this end with the Islamic revolution

在特拉維夫和德黑蘭之間 往來的以色列班機

in 1979?

這些互動難道在1979年的伊斯蘭革命後

In spite of the very clear anti-Israeli ideology

就結束了嗎?

of the new regime, the geopolitical logic

即使新政權的反以意識很強烈

for their collaboration lived on,

地緣政治上應有的合作關係

because they still had common threats.

依然存在

And when Iraq invaded Iran in 1980,

因為他們仍擁有相同的威脅

Israel feared an Iraqi victory

當伊拉克在1980入侵伊朗

and actively helped Iran by selling it arms

以色列為阻止伊拉克勝利

and providing it with spare parts

還主動幫助伊朗

for Iran's American weaponry

販售武器給伊朗

at a moment when Iran was very vulnerable

及提供伊朗美軍武器的零件

because of an American arms embargo

在伊朗軍力不足

that Israel was more than happy to violate.

因為美國軍武禁運時

In fact, back in the 1980s,

以色列樂得置美國於不顧

it was Israel that lobbied Washington

其實在80年代

to talk to Iran, to sell arms to Iran,

是以色列遊說華府與伊朗溝通

and not pay attention to Iran's anti-Israeli ideology.

賣軍武給伊朗

And this, of course, climaxed

不要在意伊朗的反以情結

in the Iran-Contra scandal of the 1980s.

而當然，這是秘密行動

But with the end of the Cold War

隨著80年代的伊朗門事件達到高峰

came also the end of the Israeli-Iranian cold peace.

不過隨著冷戰結束

Suddenly, the two common threats

以色列與伊朗之間 表面的和平也結束了

that had pushed them closer together throughout decades,

兩國之間的共同威脅

more or less evaporated.

曾經迫使他們互助幾十年的威脅

The Soviet Union collapsed,

就這樣消失了

Iraq was defeated,

蘇聯解體

and a new environment was created in the region

伊拉克戰敗

in which both of them felt more secure,

新的秩序在這裡重新建立

but they were also now left unchecked.

他們都更有安全感

Without Iraq balancing Iran,

同時也更不受控制

Iran could now become a threat,

沒有伊拉克制衡伊朗

some in Israel argued.

伊朗就可能成為以色列的威脅

In fact, the current dynamic

有些以色列人這麼認為

that you see between Iran and Israel

其實目前

has its roots more so

伊朗和以色列間

in the geopolitical reconfiguration of the region

關係的變動

after the Cold War

是源自冷戰後

than in the events of 1979,

地理戰略上的重新佈局

because at this point, Iran and Israel

而不是1979年發生的一連串事件

emerge as two of the most powerful states in the region,

在那時伊朗和以色列

and rather than viewing each other

一躍成為中東地區最強大的兩個國家

as potential security partners,

他們不將對方視為國土安全上

they increasingly came to view each other

可能的合作夥伴

as rivals and competitors.

反倒漸漸視對方

So Israel, who in the 1980s

為敵人和競爭對象

lobbied for and improved U.S.-Iran relations

所以當以色列在80年代

now feared a U.S.-Iran rapprochement,

遊說並改善美國和伊朗的關係後

thinking that it would come

開始擔心美伊之間的友好

at Israel's security interests' expense,

認為這將

and instead sought to put Iran

影響以色列的國土安全利益

in increased isolation.

試著要置伊朗

Ironically, this was happening at a time

於逐漸孤立的境地

when Iran was more interested

諷刺的是，那時後的

in peacemaking with Washington

伊朗剛好更希望與

than to see to Israel's destruction.

華府和平共處

Iran had put itself in isolation

而不是想要搞垮以色列

because of its radicalism,

伊朗因為激進主義

and after having helped the United States indirectly

使自己處於孤立狀態

in the war against Iraq in 1991,

伊朗曾間接地幫助過美國

the Iranians were hoping

在1991年美國和伊拉克的戰爭中

that they would be rewarded by being included

伊朗人希望

in the post-war security architecture of the region.

他們能因為幫忙而被納入

But Washington chose to ignore Iran's outreach,

戰後該地區安全框架中

as it would a decade later in Afghanistan,

但是華府選擇忽略伊朗的示好

and instead moved to intensify Iran's isolation,

就像十年後對阿富汗那樣

and it is at this point, around 1993, '94,

就此更顯得伊朗的孤立無援

that Iran begins to translate

就在此時約1993，1994年時

its anti-Israeli ideology

伊朗開始將

into operational policy.

反以的意識形態

The Iranians believed that whatever they did,

成為國家方針政策的一部分

even if they moderated their policies,

伊朗人相信不論他們做什麼

the U.S. would continue to seek Iran's isolation,

即使改變政策

and the only way Iran could compel Washington

美國還是會繼續孤立他們

to change its position was by imposing a cost

伊朗唯一能迫使華府

on the U.S. if it didn't.

改變立場的方式

The easiest target was the peace process,

就是讓美國為此付出代價 如果華府還沒有付出代價

and now the Iranian ideological bark

最好的著手處就是和平進程

was to be accompanied by a nonconventional bite,

現在，伊朗意識形態的狂吠

and Iran began supporting extensively

不守成規地大咬了美國一口

Palestinian Islamist groups that it previously

伊朗開始大規模援助 巴勒斯坦的伊斯蘭教徒

had shunned.

而不像之前那樣

In some ways, this sounds paradoxical,

躲避他們

but according to Martin Indyk

就某方面來說，這聽起來很矛盾

of the Clinton administration,

但是柯林頓執政時期的

the Iranians had not gotten it entirely wrong,

駐以大使英迪克認為

because the more peace there would be

伊朗這樣做並不無道理

between Israel and Palestine,

因為以色列和巴勒斯坦之間的關係

the U.S. believed, the more Iran would get isolated.

越和平

The more Iran got isolated, the more peace there would be.

美國相信伊朗會越孤立

So according to Indyk, and these are his words,

伊朗越孤立，中東情勢就會越和平

the Iranians had an interest to do us in

所以根據英迪克，他是這樣說的

on the peace process

伊朗想要破壞

in order to defeat our policy of containment.

我們的和平計畫

To defeat our policy of containment,

為了打擊我們的遏制政策

not about ideology.

是為了打擊我們的遏制政策

But throughout even the worst times of their entanglement,

而非意識形態

all sides have reached out to each other.

即使在他們互相角力的最糟情勢

Netanyahu, when he got elected in 1996,

三方都嘗試向對方示好

reached out to the Iranians to see

內塔尼亞胡在1996年當選以色列總理時

if there were any ways that

曾試圖與伊朗溝通

the doctrine of the periphery could be resurrected.

看有沒有可能

Tehran was not interested.

重建過去守護領土的協議

A few years later, the Iranians sent

德黑蘭對此毫無興趣

a comprehensive negotiation proposal to the Bush administration,

幾年後，伊朗向

a proposal that revealed that there was some potential

布希政府送上全面的談判提議

of getting Iran and Israel back on terms again.

裡面提到

The Bush administration did not even respond.

伊朗和以色列再度和解的可能

All sides have never missed an opportunity

但是布希政府根本不回應

to miss an opportunity.

三方都有意地

But this is not an ancient conflict.

錯過談判機會

This is not even an ideological conflict.

但是這不是長久以來的衝突

The ebbs and flows of hostility

甚至不是意識形態的衝突

have not shifted with ideological zeal,

敵對關係

but rather with changes in the geopolitical landscape.

沒有隨意識形態的狂熱而消長

When Iran and Israel's security imperatives

而是地理上的政治版圖

dictated collaboration, they did so

當伊朗和以色列的 最高國安教條是合作

in spite of lethal ideological opposition to each other.

他們就合作過

When Iran's ideological impulses collided

即使在意識形態上水火不容

with its strategic interests,

當伊朗的意識本能

the strategic interests always prevailed.

與戰略利益衝突

This is good news, because it means

他們永遠以戰略上的利益為主

that neither war nor enmity

這是一件好事

is a foregone conclusion.

這意味著戰爭或敵意

But some want war.

並不是必然的結局

Some believe or say that it's 1938,

但是有些人想要戰爭

Iran is Germany,

有些人相信或是表示 現在就是1938年

and Ahmadinejad is Hitler.

伊朗是德國

If we accept this to be true,

而總統艾瑪加就是希特勒

that indeed it is 1938, Iran is Germany,

如果我們接受這個假設

Ahmadinejad is Hitler,

現在的確是1938年，伊朗是德國

then the question we have to ask ourself is,

艾瑪加是希特勒

who wishes to play the role of Neville Chamberlain?

那麼我們需要自問的是

Who will risk peace?

誰要來當張伯倫容忍納粹行徑?

This is an analogy that is deliberately aimed

誰會拿和平冒險?

at eliminating diplomacy,

這是一個比喻，是有意地

and when you eliminate diplomacy,

在摧毀外交關係

you make war inevitable.

當外交手段行不通時

In an ideological conflict, there can be no truce,

戰爭將無可避免地來臨

no draw, no compromise,

如果遇到意識形態上的衝突 那就不可能有停戰

only victory or defeat.

沒有平手，也沒有妥協

But rather than making war inevitable

只有勝利或戰敗

by viewing this as ideological,

但與其將戰爭視為 意識形態上的衝突

we would be wise to seek ways

無法避免

to make peace possible.

我們應該明智地尋找一個途徑

Iran and Israel's conflict is a new phenomenon,

使和平成為可能

only a few decades old

伊以衝突是一個新的現象

in a history of 2,500 years,

在兩千五百年的歷史長河裡

and precisely because its roots are geopolitical,

不過有幾十年的歷史

it means that solutions can be found,

而且由於它地理上的政治關係

compromises can be struck,

這意味著一定找得到解決的辦法

however difficult it yet may be.

妥協是可以達成的

After all, it was Yitzhak Rabin himself who said,

即使可能相當困難

"You don't make peace with your friends.

畢竟拉賓是這麼說的：

You make it with your enemies."

「人們不必和朋友維持和平關係，

Thank you.

而要跟敵人維持和平相處。」

(Applause)

謝謝大家