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  • Just a few minutes ago, I took this picture

  • about 10 blocks from here.

  • This is the Grand Cafe here in Oxford.

  • I took this picture because this turns out to be

  • the first coffeehouse to open

  • in England in 1650.

  • That's its great claim to fame,

  • and I wanted to show it to you,

  • not because I want to give you the kind of Starbucks tour

  • of historic England,

  • but rather because

  • the English coffeehouse was crucial

  • to the development and spread

  • of one of the great intellectual flowerings of the last 500 years,

  • what we now call the Enlightenment.

  • And the coffeehouse played such a big role

  • in the birth of the Enlightenment,

  • in part, because of what people were drinking there.

  • Because, before the spread

  • of coffee and tea through British culture,

  • what people drank -- both elite and mass folks drank --

  • day-in and day-out, from dawn until dusk

  • was alcohol.

  • Alcohol was the daytime beverage of choice.

  • You would drink a little beer with breakfast and have a little wine at lunch,

  • a little gin -- particularly around 1650 --

  • and top it off with a little beer and wine at the end of the day.

  • That was the healthy choice -- right --

  • because the water wasn't safe to drink.

  • And so, effectively until the rise of the coffeehouse,

  • you had an entire population

  • that was effectively drunk all day.

  • And you can imagine what that would be like, right, in your own life --

  • and I know this is true of some of you --

  • if you were drinking all day,

  • and then you switched from a depressant to a stimulant in your life,

  • you would have better ideas.

  • You would be sharper and more alert.

  • And so it's not an accident that a great flowering of innovation happened

  • as England switched to tea and coffee.

  • But the other thing that makes the coffeehouse important

  • is the architecture of the space.

  • It was a space where people would get together

  • from different backgrounds,

  • different fields of expertise, and share.

  • It was a space, as Matt Ridley talked about, where ideas could have sex.

  • This was their conjugal bed, in a sense --

  • ideas would get together there.

  • And an astonishing number of innovations from this period

  • have a coffeehouse somewhere in their story.

  • I've been spending a lot of time thinking about coffeehouses

  • for the last five years,

  • because I've been kind of on this quest

  • to investigate this question

  • of where good ideas come from.

  • What are the environments

  • that lead to unusual levels of innovation,

  • unusual levels of creativity?

  • What's the kind of environmental --

  • what is the space of creativity?

  • And what I've done is

  • I've looked at both environments like the coffeehouse;

  • I've looked at media environments, like the world wide web,

  • that have been extraordinarily innovative;

  • I've gone back to the history of the first cities;

  • I've even gone to biological environments,

  • like coral reefs and rainforests,

  • that involve unusual levels of biological innovation;

  • and what I've been looking for is shared patterns,

  • kind of signature behavior that shows up

  • again and again in all of these environments.

  • Are there recurring patterns that we can learn from,

  • that we can take and kind of apply to our own lives,

  • or our own organizations,

  • or our own environments to make them more creative and innovative?

  • And I think I've found a few.

  • But what you have to do to make sense of this

  • and to really understand these principles

  • is you have to do away

  • with a lot of the way in which our conventional metaphors and language

  • steers us towards

  • certain concepts of idea-creation.

  • We have this very rich vocabulary

  • to describe moments of inspiration.

  • We have the kind of the flash of insight,

  • the stroke of insight,

  • we have epiphanies, we have "eureka!" moments,

  • we have the lightbulb moments, right?

  • All of these concepts,

  • as kind of rhetorically florid as they are,

  • share this basic assumption,

  • which is that an idea is a single thing,

  • it's something that happens often

  • in a wonderful illuminating moment.

  • But in fact, what I would argue and what you really need to kind of begin with

  • is this idea that an idea is a network

  • on the most elemental level.

  • I mean, this is what is happening inside your brain.

  • An idea -- a new idea -- is a new network of neurons

  • firing in sync with each other inside your brain.

  • It's a new configuration that has never formed before.

  • And the question is: how do you get your brain into environments

  • where these new networks are going to be more likely to form?

  • And it turns out that, in fact, the kind of network patterns of the outside world

  • mimic a lot of the network patterns

  • of the internal world of the human brain.

  • So the metaphor I'd like the use

  • I can take

  • from a story of a great idea that's quite recent --

  • a lot more recent than the 1650s.

  • A wonderful guy named Timothy Prestero,

  • who has a company called ... an organization called Design That Matters.

  • They decided to tackle this really pressing problem

  • of, you know, the terrible problems we have with infant mortality rates

  • in the developing world.

  • One of the things that's very frustrating about this is that we know,

  • by getting modern neonatal incubators

  • into any context,

  • if we can keep premature babies warm, basically -- it's very simple --

  • we can halve infant mortality rates in those environments.

  • So, the technology is there.

  • These are standard in all the industrialized worlds.

  • The problem is, if you buy a $40,000 incubator,

  • and you send it off

  • to a mid-sized village in Africa,

  • it will work great for a year or two years,

  • and then something will go wrong and it will break,

  • and it will remain broken forever,

  • because you don't have a whole system of spare parts,

  • and you don't have the on-the-ground expertise

  • to fix this $40,000 piece of equipment.

  • And so you end up having this problem where you spend all this money

  • getting aid and all these advanced electronics to these countries,

  • and then it ends up being useless.

  • So what Prestero and his team decided to do

  • is to look around and see: what are the abundant resources

  • in these developing world contexts?

  • And what they noticed was they don't have a lot of DVRs,

  • they don't have a lot of microwaves,

  • but they seem to do a pretty good job of keeping their cars on the road.

  • There's a Toyota Forerunner

  • on the street in all these places.

  • They seem to have the expertise to keep cars working.

  • So they started to think,

  • "Could we build a neonatal incubator

  • that's built entirely out of automobile parts?"

  • And this is what they ended up coming with.

  • It's called a "neonurture device."

  • From the outside, it looks like a normal little thing

  • you'd find in a modern, Western hospital.

  • In the inside, it's all car parts.

  • It's got a fan, it's got headlights for warmth,

  • it's got door chimes for alarm --

  • it runs off a car battery.

  • And so all you need is the spare parts from your Toyota

  • and the ability to fix a headlight,

  • and you can repair this thing.

  • Now, that's a great idea, but what I'd like to say is that, in fact,

  • this is a great metaphor for the way that ideas happen.

  • We like to think our breakthrough ideas, you know,

  • are like that $40,000, brand new incubator,

  • state-of-the-art technology,

  • but more often than not, they're cobbled together

  • from whatever parts that happen to be around nearby.

  • We take ideas from other people,

  • from people we've learned from, from people we run into in the coffee shop,

  • and we stitch them together into new forms and we create something new.

  • That's really where innovation happens.

  • And that means that we have to change some of our models

  • of what innovation and deep thinking really looks like, right.

  • I mean, this is one vision of it.

  • Another is Newton and the apple, when Newton was at Cambridge.

  • This is a statue from Oxford.

  • You know, you're sitting there thinking a deep thought,

  • and the apple falls from the tree, and you have the theory of gravity.

  • In fact, the spaces that have historically led to innovation

  • tend to look like this, right.

  • This is Hogarth's famous painting of a kind of political dinner at a tavern,

  • but this is what the coffee shops looked like back then.

  • This is the kind of chaotic environment

  • where ideas were likely to come together,

  • where people were likely to have

  • new, interesting, unpredictable collisions -- people from different backgrounds.

  • So, if we're trying to build organizations that are more innovative,

  • we have to build spaces that -- strangely enough -- look a little bit more like this.

  • This is what your office should look like,

  • is part of my message here.

  • And one of the problems with this is that

  • people are actually -- when you research this field --

  • people are notoriously unreliable,

  • when they actually kind of self-report

  • on where they have their own good ideas,

  • or their history of their best ideas.

  • And a few years ago, a wonderful researcher named Kevin Dunbar

  • decided to go around

  • and basically do the Big Brother approach

  • to figuring out where good ideas come from.

  • He went to a bunch of science labs around the world

  • and videotaped everyone

  • as they were doing every little bit of their job.

  • So when they were sitting in front of the microscope,

  • when they were talking to their colleague at the water cooler, and all these things.

  • And he recorded all of these conversations

  • and tried to figure out where the most important ideas,

  • where they happened.

  • And when we think about the classic image of the scientist in the lab,

  • we have this image -- you know, they're pouring over the microscope,

  • and they see something in the tissue sample.

  • And "oh, eureka," they've got the idea.

  • What happened actually when Dunbar kind of looked at the tape

  • is that, in fact, almost all of the important breakthrough ideas

  • did not happen alone in the lab, in front of the microscope.

  • They happened at the conference table

  • at the weekly lab meeting,

  • when everybody got together and shared their kind of latest data and findings,

  • oftentimes when people shared the mistakes they were having,

  • the error, the noise in the signal they were discovering.

  • And something about that environment --

  • and I've started calling it the "liquid network,"

  • where you have lots of different ideas that are together,

  • different backgrounds, different interests,

  • jostling with each other, bouncing off each other --

  • that environment is, in fact,

  • the environment that leads to innovation.

  • The other problem that people have

  • is they like to condense their stories of innovation down

  • to kind of shorter time frames.

  • So they want to tell the story of the "eureka!" moment.

  • They want to say, "There I was, I was standing there

  • and I had it all suddenly clear in my head."

  • But in fact, if you go back and look at the historical record,

  • it turns out that a lot of important ideas

  • have very long incubation periods --

  • I call this the "slow hunch."

  • We've heard a lot recently

  • about hunch and instinct

  • and blink-like sudden moments of clarity,

  • but in fact, a lot of great ideas

  • linger on, sometimes for decades,

  • in the back of people's minds.

  • They have a feeling that there's an interesting problem,

  • but they don't quite have the tools yet to discover them.

  • They spend all this time working on certain problems,

  • but there's another thing lingering there

  • that they're interested in, but they can't quite solve.

  • Darwin is a great example of this.

  • Darwin himself, in his autobiography,

  • tells the story of coming up with the idea

  • for natural selection

  • as a classic "eureka!" moment.

  • He's in his study,

  • it's October of 1838,

  • and he's reading Malthus, actually, on population.

  • And all of a sudden,

  • the basic algorithm of natural selection kind of pops into his head

  • and he says, "Ah, at last, I had a theory with which to work."

  • That's in his autobiography.

  • About a decade or two ago,

  • a wonderful scholar named Howard Gruber went back

  • and looked at Darwin's notebooks from this period.

  • And Darwin kept these copious notebooks

  • where he wrote down every little idea he had, every little hunch.

  • And what Gruber found was

  • that Darwin had the full theory of natural selection

  • for months and months and months

  • before he had his alleged epiphany,

  • reading Malthus in October of 1838.

  • There are passages where you can read it,

  • and you think you're reading from a Darwin textbook,

  • from the period before he has this epiphany.

  • And so what you realize is that Darwin, in a sense,

  • had the idea, he had the concept,

  • but was unable of fully thinking it yet.

  • And that is actually how great ideas often happen;

  • they fade into view over long periods of time.

  • Now the challenge for all of us is:

  • how do you create environments

  • that allow these ideas to have this kind of long half-life, right?

  • It's hard to go to your boss and say,

  • "I have an excellent idea for our organization.

  • It will be useful in 2020.

  • Could you just give me some time to do that?"

  • Now a couple of companies -- like Google --

  • they have innovation time off, 20 percent time,

  • where, in a sense, those are hunch-cultivating mechanisms in an organization.

  • But that's a key thing.

  • And the other thing is to allow those hunches

  • to connect with other people's hunches; that's what often happens.

  • You have half of an idea, somebody else has the other half,

  • and if you're in the right environment,

  • they turn into something larger than the sum of their parts.

  • So, in a sense,

  • we often talk about the value

  • of protecting intellectual property,

  • you know, building barricades,

  • having secretive R&D labs, patenting everything that we have,

  • so that those ideas will remain valuable,

  • and people will be incentivized to come up with more ideas,

  • and the culture will be more innovative.

  • But I think there's a case to be made

  • that we should spend at least as much time, if not more,

  • valuing the premise of connecting ideas

  • and not just protecting them.

  • And I'll leave you with this story,

  • which I think captures a lot of these values,

  • and it's just wonderful kind of tale of innovation

  • and how it happens in unlikely ways.

  • It's October of 1957,

  • and Sputnik has just launched,

  • and we're in Laurel Maryland,

  • at the applied physics lab

  • associated with Johns Hopkins University.

  • And it's Monday morning,

  • and the news has just broken about this satellite

  • that's now orbiting the planet.

  • And of course, this is nerd heaven, right?

  • There are all these physics geeks who are there thinking,

  • "Oh my gosh! This is incredible. I can't believe this has happened."

  • And two of them,

  • two 20-something researchers at the APL

  • are there at the cafeteria table

  • having an informal conversation with a bunch of their colleagues.

  • And these two guys are named Guier and Weiffenbach.

  • And they start talking, and one of them says,

  • "Hey, has anybody tried to listen for this thing?

  • There's this, you know, man-made satellite up there in outer space

  • that's obviously broadcasting some kind of signal.

  • We could probably hear it, if we tune in."

  • And so they ask around to a couple of their colleagues,

  • and everybody's like, "No, I hadn't thought of doing that.

  • That's an interesting idea."

  • And it turns out Weiffenbach is kind of an expert

  • in microwave reception,

  • and he's got a little antennae set up

  • with an amplifier in his office.

  • And so Guier and Weiffenbach go back to Weiffenbach's office,

  • and they start kind of noodling around -- hacking, as we might call it now.

  • And after a couple of hours, they actually start picking up the signal,

  • because the Soviets made Sputnik

  • very easy to track.

  • It was right at 20 MHz, so you could pick it up really easily,

  • because they were afraid that people would think it was a hoax, basically.

  • So they made it really easy to find it.

  • So these two guys are sitting there listening to this signal,

  • and people start kind of coming into the office and saying,

  • "Wow, that's pretty cool. Can I hear? Wow, that's great."

  • And before long, they think, "Well jeez, this is kind of historic.

  • We may be the first people in the United States to be listening to this.

  • We should record it."

  • And so they bring in this big, clunky analog tape recorder

  • and they start recording these little bleep, bleeps.

  • And they start writing the kind of date stamp, time stamps

  • for each little bleep that they record.

  • And they they start thinking, "Well gosh, you know, we're noticing

  • small little frequency variations here.

  • We could probably calculate the speed

  • that the satellite is traveling,

  • if we do a little basic math here

  • using the Doppler effect."

  • And then they played around with it a little bit more,

  • and they talked to a couple of their colleagues

  • who had other kind of specialties.

  • And they said, "Jeez, you know,

  • we think we could actually take a look at the slope of the Doppler effect

  • to figure out the points at which

  • the satellite is closest to our antennae

  • and the points at which it's farthest away.

  • That's pretty cool."

  • And eventually, they get permission --

  • this is all a little side project that hadn't been officially part of their job description.

  • They get permission to use the new, you know, UNIVAC computer

  • that takes up an entire room that they'd just gotten at the APL.

  • They run some more of the numbers, and at the end of about three or four weeks,

  • turns out they have mapped the exact trajectory

  • of this satellite around the Earth,

  • just from listening to this one little signal,

  • going off on this little side hunch that they'd been inspired to do

  • over lunch one morning.

  • A couple weeks later their boss, Frank McClure,

  • pulls them into the room and says,

  • "Hey, you guys, I have to ask you something

  • about that project you were working on.

  • You've figured out an unknown location

  • of a satellite orbiting the planet

  • from a known location on the ground.

  • Could you go the other way?

  • Could you figure out an unknown location on the ground,

  • if you knew the location of the satellite?"

  • And they thought about it and they said,

  • "Well, I guess maybe you could. Let's run the numbers here."

  • So they went back, and they thought about it.

  • And they came back and said, "Actually, it'll be easier."

  • And he said, "Oh, that's great.

  • Because see, I have these new nuclear submarines

  • that I'm building.

  • And it's really hard to figure out how to get your missile

  • so that it will land right on top of Moscow,

  • if you don't know where the submarine is in the middle of the Pacific Ocean.

  • So we're thinking, we could throw up a bunch of satellites

  • and use it to track our submarines

  • and figure out their location in the middle of the ocean.

  • Could you work on that problem?"

  • And that's how GPS was born.

  • 30 years later,

  • Ronald Reagan actually opened it up and made it an open platform

  • that anybody could kind of build upon

  • and anybody could come along and build new technology

  • that would create and innovate

  • on top of this open platform,

  • left it open for anyone to do

  • pretty much anything they wanted with it.

  • And now, I guarantee you

  • certainly half of this room, if not more,

  • has a device sitting in their pocket right now

  • that is talking to one of these satellites in outer space.

  • And I bet you one of you, if not more,

  • has used said device and said satellite system

  • to locate a nearby coffeehouse somewhere in the last --

  • (Laughter)

  • in the last day or last week, right?

  • (Applause)

  • And that, I think,

  • is a great case study, a great lesson

  • in the power, the marvelous, kind of unplanned

  • emergent, unpredictable power

  • of open innovative systems.

  • When you build them right, they will be led to completely new directions

  • that the creators never even dreamed of.

  • I mean, here you have these guys

  • who basically thought they were just following this hunch,

  • this little passion that had developed,

  • then they thought they were fighting the Cold War,

  • and then it turns out they're just helping somebody

  • find a soy latte.

  • (Laughter)

  • That is how innovation happens.

  • Chance favors the connected mind.

  • Thank you very much.

  • (Applause)

Just a few minutes ago, I took this picture

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