week by week, as it unfolded 100 years later. From today until November 2018,

全面的介紹一次世界大戰。 由即日起至2018年11月止。

so you can really get a sense of just what happened as it happened. The active weeks, the passive weeks,

所以你更能隨著各事件的發生去了解它們(事件)。 (戰事)動態的星期、(戰事)被動的星期、

the weeks of carnage and the weeks of hope – we'll follow them all one by one.

死傷慘重的星期和充滿希望的星期 我們將一個接一個跟隨各週進行介紹。

And we've made a couple of special episodes about the prelude to war so you can get some

我們已經做了幾個有關大戰的序幕的特輯， 所以你可以了解

idea of all of the forces in motion. We've also made an episode about the assassination

有關各勢力的動態。 我們也已經做了一個有關大公和他的妻子

of the archduke and his wife as it was one of the pivotal

暗殺事件的特別節目， 因為它是歷史的關鍵時刻之一

moments in our history. All three of these episodes will come out in the next few days.

這三集皆將於未來幾天撥出。

100 years ago today, on July 28th, 1914, the empire of Austria-Hungary declared

在100年前的今天也就是1914年7月28日 奧匈帝國對

war on the Kingdom of Serbia. Now, as you are probably aware, this snowballed within days into the

塞爾維亞王國宣戰。 正如你所知，這事件將於幾天內越滾越大

First World War.

導致第一次世界大戰的發生。

Now people often talk of the “blank check” – when Kaiser Wilhelm said on July 5th, 1914

如同現在人們經常談論的「空頭支票」— 威廉皇帝於1914年7月5日表示

that he would unconditionally support Austria in whatever actions she took against Serbia,

會無條件支持奧地利對塞爾維亞的任何敵對行為，

and this is seen as the main argument for Germany's responsibility for the war, but

這被看作是德國得為一戰負責的主要論點，

this is a little too simple.

雖然這論點有點太簡化了。

In the days following the assassination of the Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo

在奧地利的斐迪南大公在塞拉耶佛 被塞爾維亞人加夫里洛·普林西普

by the Serb Gavrilo Princip, there were anti-Serbian riots and demonstrations in much of Bosnia

暗殺事件後的幾天， 波士尼亞出現了很多的反塞爾維亞的暴動和示威

and official dispatches to Vienna that there was Serbian complicity in the plot, but general

而官方給維也納的資料是 「有塞爾維亞人同謀犯案」，但一般

European reactions to the killings were quite mild. Austria, however, had big ideas, many

歐洲人對於該事件的的反應是相當平靜。 然而奧地利卻有個更大的想法，

of them coming from Army Chief of Staff Conrad von Hötzendorf. And I love that name.

這些(想法)來自於陸軍參謀長康拉德·馮·赫岑多夫。而且我喜歡這個名字。

Conrad was a vehement imperialist for Austria and Austrian greatness. He's also

康拉德是強烈支持奧地利及其偉大事蹟的帝國主義者。

been described as being “the most dangerous kind of officer...both stupid and intensely energetic."

他也被形容為 「最危險的將官...既愚蠢又強烈精力充沛」

There you have it.

這樣你應該了解了。

In fact, in the year and a half before today, 1914, he asked his government

事實上1914年的今日的一年半前之內， 他要求政府

to go to war no less than 26 times. And it's very important to note here that his main

打仗超過26次。 而政治上平衡他的主要人物

counterweight, the man who repeatedly urged emperor Franz Josef against war with Russia

也就是多次敦促皇帝法蘭茲·約瑟夫 反對與俄羅斯的戰爭

or war with Serbia, not to listen to Conrad, was Archduke Franz Ferdinand, now deceased.

或與塞爾維亞的戰爭 並且不要聽從康拉德的人是斐迪南大公，現已去世。

The assassination was, to Conrad, a heaven sent means to curb Serbian power and ambition.

而該暗殺對康拉德來說是個上天派來 遏制塞爾維亞的實力和雄心的手段。

Now to understand the next few weeks we really need to look a bit at both Germany and Russia

為了理解接下來幾週發生的事件， 我們需要來看一下德國和俄羅斯

In 1912, the Kaiser had told army chief of staff von Moltke and Grand Admiral

1912年德皇曾告訴 陸軍參謀長馮·毛奇和海軍元帥

von Tirpitz that “Austria had to act vigorously against the foreign Slavs... If Russia were

馮·鐵必制說：「奧地利要積極的對抗 國外的斯拉夫人...如果俄羅斯人

to support the Serbs war would be inevitable for us.”

支持塞爾維亞人， 對我們來說戰爭將是不可避免的。」

Although we think of pre-war Russia today as a backwater,

雖然現在很多人認為 戰前的俄羅斯沒有啥動靜，

this was not really the case. Russia had become the world's fourth largest economy by 1914.

但其實並非如此。 1914年俄羅斯已成為世界第四大的經濟體。

Okay! Shortage of money had always meant before that she had never been able to build and

之前的資金短缺一直 讓她從來沒有能像德國一樣

equip her army like the Germans could, but more importantly, her railways. By 1914, though,

組織和裝備自己的軍隊， 更不用說很重要的鐵路。1914年

Russian currency was on the gold standard and the railroads were booming and Russia

俄羅斯貨幣在黃金本位，鐵路也有蓬勃發展

would be able to easily and quickly defend her borders in only a few years.

僅僅幾年俄羅斯將能夠便捷地捍衛她的邊界。

Now this was a big fear in the German high command – since Russia obviously had the manpower advantage,

這對德國的最高統帥部是個極大的恐懼 - 因為俄羅斯顯然有人力優勢，

once her railways were a match for Germany, well... German Chancellor von Bethman Hollweg's

等到她的鐵路足以匹敵德國時， 嗯…德國總理馮·貝特曼·霍爾維格

diary from July 7th tells us these thoughts: that Russia had become a nightmare, and that

7月7日的日記寫出了這些想法： 俄羅斯已成為一個夢魘，

the German generals say there must be a war before it was too late. By 1917, Germany

而德國將軍們說戰爭必須在那之前發生。 1917年德國是沒有希望的，

has no hope, so better 1914.

所以1914年是更好的選擇。

As an aside here – this was the opinion of the generals and some government

順帶一提 - 這是將軍和一些政府領導階層

leaders but it was not the opinion of the German people at large.

的意見而非多數德國平民的想法。

You see Germany had the largest population of socialists in Europe and they and others comprised

德國有人口中大部分是歐洲社會主義者， 他們和其他人組成

a big anti-war segment of society.

了一個巨大的反戰群體。

So the Kaiser wrote on June 30, “the Serbs must

所以德皇於6月30日寫道「必須處理

be disposed of, and right soon!” and he did pledge German support for Austria, and

塞爾維亞人，而且要快！」 他並承諾德國對奧地利的支持，

he did tell the Austrian ambassador on July 5th that should war between Austria-Hungary

7月5日時他也告訴奧地利大使 假使奧匈帝國與俄羅斯之間的

and Russia prove unavoidable, Germany would be at Austria's side. HOWEVER, and this

戰爭確信無可避免， 則德國將站在奧地利的那邊。

is really important, he also told his chancellor that he did not think there was a real prospect

但另一方面他竟然告訴他的首相 他不認為戰爭會立即發生

of war – that Russia was not close to being ready.

—俄羅斯還沒準備好。這是一個重大事件。

The next day, he went on his annual three-week vacation cruise to Norway, which is kind of

隔天他就出發進行每年為期三週 挪威巡航假期

not what you'd do if you were basically the most powerful man in the world and you

而這並不像手握大權者在重大戰事前

were about to go to a major war, so in spite of it all, a world war was not on the Kaiser's mind.

會做的事，所以這表示 德皇從沒想過世界大戰的可能。

So on July 7th, the Austro-Hungarian cabinet met to discuss Serbia, and they were

7月7日時奧匈帝國 內閣開會討論塞爾維亞相關議題，

for a war to reduce Serbia's size and make her dependent on Austria.

而他們支持戰爭以減少塞爾維亞的領土， 並使其更依賴奧地利。

On July 13th, a secret report reached Vienna from Sarajevo that there was zero evidence

7月13日維也納從塞拉耶佛得到一個密報， 提到並無證據表明

the Serbian government had anything to do with the assassination. Now, this didn't really

塞爾維亞政府與暗殺事件有任何關聯。 但這並沒有造成

change anything, but THIS did:

什麼改變。 但另一事件則相反：

Franz Josef finally became convinced that Austria could take action against Serbia

法蘭茲·約瑟夫終於開始相信 奧地利可以在不受到其他權力的干擾下

without other powers interfering, so he agreed to issue an ultimatum. The terms of the ultimatum

對塞爾維亞採取行動， 所以他同意發出最後通牒。這最後通牒的條款

were finalized on July 19th. It had a total of 15 demands and it linked the Belgrade government

於7月19日定稿。 其包含15要求並將在無證據的情況下將

with the assassination, even without evidence.

貝爾格勒（塞爾維亞）政府 與暗殺事件連在一起。

Now, you can look up the demands yourself, but here are a couple that really stick out:

你可以自己去查那些要求的詳細條文， 但其中有幾個特別顯眼的：

the Serbian government must condemn anti-Austrian propaganda and punish anyone who made or distributed it,

塞爾維亞政府必須譴責反奧宣傳 和懲罰任何製作或分發者

and the big one – Austrian officials would participate in the judicial process.

而最重大的一個是- 奧地利官員會參與該司法程序。

In Serbia. Yep, they would be in charge of justice in another country.

是的，他們要取得在另一國也就是塞爾維亞的司法權。

Now, as you may guess, this ultimatum was designed to be rejected. It was sent on July

正如你可能想，這最後通牒 是以被拒絕為前提設計的。

23rd, with 48 hours for Serbia to agree to it. 6 PM on

它於7月23日發派且要求塞爾維亞於48小時內通過

July 25th, Serbia answered the ultimatum. She agreed that anti-Austrian propagandists

7月25日下午6點，塞爾維亞對最後通牒進行回覆。 該國同意懲罰反奧宣傳者

would be punished and subversive movement suppressed, and actually agreed to almost

並壓制破壞行為， 塞爾維亞居然同意將近全部的要求，

everything else, but as to Austria participating in the judicial process within Serbia, Serbia

但對於奧地利參於塞爾維亞境內參與司法程序這條，

simply asked that this demand be submitted to the tribunal in The Hague.

塞爾維亞要求將此要求提交 至海牙國際法庭。

Now, everybody except Austria thought this response was just fine, but Austria was determined

除奧地利以外大家都認為這反應就很好， 但奧地利決心開戰。

to go to war. Actually, Russia suggested two days later that negotiations between

事實上兩天後俄羅斯提出

her and Vienna should be opened to try and sort things out. This was refused. A British attempt that same

塞爾維亞和維也納的談判應該是公開的， 和並以理清事理為目標。這遭到了拒絕。

day to talk Germany into having a four-power conference to also try to sort things out

同天英國嘗試說服德國舉辦四大勢力 會議以試圖理清事理

was rejected as well.

也被被拒絕。

And you know what? Here's something that happened then that remained secret until after the war:

你知道嗎？ 有些事情在一戰發生那麼後仍是秘密：

on July 28th, 100 years ago today, Kaiser Wilhelm finally read the full

100多年前的今天也就是7月28日， 德皇威廉才讀到奧地利的

text of the Austrian ultimatum and Serbia's response. And he could see no reason at all

最終通牒全文和塞爾維亞的回覆。 他想不到任何理由

for Austria to declare war. Yep. After all this that had happened, The Kaiser wrote:

奧地利會宣戰。 是的！事情發生後德皇才寫了

“a great moral victory for Vienna, but with it every reason for war is removed...”

「這是維也納在道義上的重大勝利， 但所有可戰的理由也隨之消彌。」

And just about an hour after the Kaiser scribbled that in the margins, Emperor Franz Josef signed

大約在德皇潦草在空白處加註的一小時後， 自信德國會支持的皇帝法蘭茲·約瑟夫

a declaration of war on Serbia, confident of German support. And that declaration would

簽署了對塞爾維亞的交戰宣言。

turn out to be the death warrant of his own empire.

這份聲明將成為他的帝國的死刑令。

We'll see you next week. Click subscribe to get each and every episode as it comes

我們下週見。 請點擊訂閱，好在每一集出來後立刻觀看，

out, and if you like the show but English isn't your best language, once again, this

如果你喜歡這節目， 但英語不是你的母語的話，我再說一次

show is also available in German and Polish – you can find links to those channels below.

該節目也有德語和波蘭語版本， 你可以從下方找到那些頻道的連結。

Now I'm sure many of you have comments, ideas, and suggestions; we're happy to hear them.

我相信你們很多人有各種意見、想法或建議; 我們很高興能夠聆聽他們。

See you next week!

下週見。