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  • - Good afternoon and welcome to our debate

  • on the Universal Basic Income.

  • My name is Charles Wheelan.

  • I'm a senior lecturer at the Rockefeller Center.

  • The last decade, if not longer, has obviously seen a debate

  • over our market-based capitalist system.

  • The financial crisis

  • brought a lot of the weaknesses to the fore.

  • Now, we are experiencing several political campaigns

  • that discuss whether moneyed interests

  • have co-opted the system,

  • whether there's sufficient competition,

  • particularly in high tech,

  • whether we should reinvestigate antitrust.

  • Obviously big concerns about income inequality

  • with San Francisco and California being an example of places

  • where enormous wealth are being created

  • even as there are 10 cities that are more familiar

  • in developing countries than in modern America.

  • Amidst all that, people are asking questions

  • about capitalism itself.

  • If you look at surveys of young people,

  • support for both democracy and capitalism have fallen.

  • People are bandying about the word socialism,

  • which is somebody who lived through

  • the Fall of the Berlin Wall was not something

  • we thought was going to be resurgent.

  • When you push on that a little bit,

  • what people tend to really mean

  • is they kind of want to rethink

  • the finer points of our market-based system.

  • So it's not necessarily throwing out the car

  • but maybe a redesign,

  • if not some serious buffing and polishing.

  • One idea that has emerged from that larger discussion

  • is the possibility of a universal basic income

  • and I'll define what that means in a little bit

  • and that's the narrow discussion that we're going to have.

  • But of course it touches on lots of other big issues,

  • income inequality, what we owe the poorest Americans,

  • what we ought to ask of the wealthiest Americans and so on.

  • That's what we're going to explore.

  • It's obviously important enough

  • that it is basically launched and sustained

  • the political campaign of Andrew Yang.

  • It's kind of a one idea that has resonance.

  • There are two guests who are going to be debating this issue.

  • On my far left, Karl Widerquist, who is associate professor

  • of Georgetown University at Cutter.

  • He is an expert in political philosophy

  • and distributive justice,

  • which is really a discussion of who has what

  • and is that fair?

  • He holds not one but two doctorates.

  • Around here, we're usually impressed

  • with people who have one PhD, but he's got two.

  • One in political theory from Oxford

  • and the second in economics

  • from City University of New York.

  • He is the author of numerous articles and books

  • including the book,

  • "Independence Propertylessness, and Basic Income:

  • "A Theory of Freedom as the Power to Say No."

  • To my immediate left is Oren Cass,

  • who is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute.

  • He is the author

  • of "The Once and Future Worker:

  • "A Vision for the Renewal of Work in America."

  • He was the domestic policy advisor for Mitt Romney

  • in his presidential campaign in 2012.

  • Before that, he was the editor of the Harvard Law Review.

  • He worked at Bain and Company

  • he has BA from Williams and a JD from Harvard Law School.

  • Karl will be kicking it off with his defense

  • of the universal basic income and Oren will go after that.

  • They'll each talk for about 10 minutes

  • and then we'll allow them to debate

  • and eventually, we will open it up for questions

  • from all of you.

  • In anticipation of Karl's talk,

  • let me just set out the parameters

  • of what we mean by universal basic income

  • and we can debate the nuances.

  • But for opening purposes, it is a benefit that is cash.

  • So it doesn't have to actually be bills

  • but it's not an in kind benefit like food stamps.

  • It is a cash benefit that goes to all individuals

  • who are eligible.

  • So if there's a household of three, it would go to the male,

  • to the female, to any of the kids in trust of their parents.

  • It is not means tested.

  • So it goes to all folks in America.

  • We can talk about whether that's citizens,

  • non-citizens and so on.

  • But it's unlike say food stamps

  • where if you're below a threshold, you get them.

  • If you're above the threshold, you do not.

  • This is a universal benefit

  • and there is no work requirements.

  • So there's nothing you have to do

  • in exchange for that basic income.

  • And it is regular,

  • meaning that it is not a one-time payment.

  • It is something that can be given annually

  • or as we may discuss more regularly

  • because that's more important

  • for people who are struggling

  • at the low end of the income scale.

  • There are different flavors of a universal basic income.

  • We can get into that.

  • It can be additive to existing benefits.

  • So it can be layered on top of the social safety net

  • or it can also be used to replace some of those benefits

  • because it's simpler than some of the means-tested programs.

  • So with that basic explanation,

  • I will turn it over to Karl who will make the case

  • for universal basic income.

  • - Thank you.

  • I support basic income because I think it's wrong to become,

  • to come between people,

  • anyone and the resources they need to survive

  • and that is exactly what we've done.

  • We've taken the resources of the earth

  • that were here before anyone came along

  • and we've said this is government property

  • or this is private property

  • and these belong to these people.

  • And then we divvy them up

  • between the privileged people in the world,

  • but the rest of you didn't get a share.

  • And the only way you can get a share

  • is if you work for these people

  • and you can't work for yourself.

  • We've taken away any possibility for propertyless people

  • to work for themselves.

  • And we say the only way you can work

  • is the follow order for these people

  • who already control resources.

  • I think that's a really terrible thing to do to anyone.

  • And I think all of you in your heart of hearts

  • to some extent and agree with me.

  • And I think that's why suppose some entrepreneur

  • came in here right now

  • and he appropriated the air in this room.

  • He just sucked all the air out of the room and said,

  • and an improved mixed his or her labor with the air

  • to make it better air and say,

  • so this air is my property now.

  • We were sharing it.

  • Now it's my private property.

  • If you all get jobs, you can buy air from me

  • and you better hurry 'cause you have seven minutes.

  • I think all of us would be pretty upset.

  • We'd say, well, if you want me to work for you,

  • maybe I will show me what the job is,

  • but give me my air back first.

  • You can't hold me under this duress

  • that you're holding under by depriving me of air.

  • But yet we do that every day with other resources,

  • food and shelter and water and the resources to make them.

  • We hold most of the working in the middle class

  • and the people under this duress

  • of you don't get these things unless you work for somebody.

  • I think that the people who own stuff,

  • the people who own stuff really need to pay back

  • for what we own.

  • That when you take a piece of the earth

  • and you make it your property,

  • what you're doing is you're imposing a duty on everyone else

  • saying this part of the earth

  • or whatever I've made out of this part of the earth

  • used to be anybody could use it, now only I can use it.

  • So you're all under this duty.

  • Well, if you're going to impose a duty on other people,

  • you should pay for it.

  • So I envision is you're paying taxes on the property you own

  • and you're getting paid for the property

  • that everybody else owns.

  • You're simultaneously paying,

  • you're simultaneously getting paid.

  • Some of us are going to pay more than we can get.

  • Some of us are going to get more than we paid.

  • If you pay more than you get,

  • if you pay more than you get back in basic income,

  • that is your reasonable fee

  • for hogging a bunch of the earth's resources.

  • And if you're getting more than you pay,

  • that is your reward to spend as you wish

  • on the services provided by everyone else

  • for using less resources than everybody else.

  • It's only normal.

  • Now, it's in the sense it's really not a radical reform.

  • We can combine it with lots of other reforms.

  • But if all we do was introduced basic income tomorrow,

  • what we'd have is a market economy

  • where income doesn't start at zero.

  • That's not so radical, but it might have radical effects.

  • It might have radical effects because as I showed

  • in that opening illustration

  • about air ownership of resources

  • gives you not only enjoyment of those resources

  • but control other people.

  • If you control things that people need to survive,

  • you control not only those things, but those people.

  • It puts all the rest of us in this position

  • where we have to go to whatever privileged group

  • owns the resources.

  • And it doesn't matter if it's a capitalist group

  • or if a socialist group or somebody else.

  • If it's not you, they have control over you.

  • And we should not be putting people in this condition.

  • Now, people who oppose this idea will often say,

  • I think fanciful things.

  • They'll pretend that we actually do provide these things.

  • We don't.

  • We have most of our policies run out.

  • If you get disability that lasts for the rest of your life,

  • if you live long enough to get social security,

  • that will last of the rest of your life.

  • Food stamps don't.

  • And TANIF doesn't and most of the things that we do

  • to help poor people run out,

  • and most of them come with conditions.

  • Now, a lot of conditions are popular.

  • People say they want to fight poverty, but with conditions.

  • But often these conditions are very self serving

  • on the part of the privileged.

  • First of all, it's the privileged

  • who are deciding conditions.

  • So we've already taken all the resources

  • and now we're the ones who get to decide

  • what those who didn't get any resources,

  • what they have to do

  • to get the resources they need to survive.

  • Well that's kind of self-serving, and kind of cruel isn't it?

  • That you don't get these resources until you do what I say.

  • And I'll show you how self-serving it is.

  • What's the number one thing we always ask

  • of the less privileged?

  • To prove they're amongst the truly needy

  • rather than those bad, needy people

  • who aren't really truly needy.

  • Is that you must be willing to work.

  • Well, that sounds good, but you know what they mean by work.

  • They mean take a job,

  • go in and be a servant to your employer

  • in a sense of you might not be in the service industry.

  • You might not be a butler,

  • but you're a servant in the sense

  • that you have to go in and take orders every day

  • from someone with more privileges than you.

  • And we think that's natural,

  • that that is synonymous with work.

  • Well, that's not what work was

  • through most of human history.

  • People could work for themselves.

  • You can not work for yourselves anymore,

  • since we enclosed the commons,

  • since we killed the Buffalo,

  • since we had the colonial movement

  • that created the private property rights system

  • around the world.

  • We made it impossible for the mass of people

  • around the world to work for themselves.

  • Work means those of us with less,

  • following orders of those of us who have more.

  • I don't think there's anything wrong with the job.

  • I just think if you want somebody to work for you,

  • you should get them to agree.

  • You shouldn't be able to starve them into submission.

  • You shouldn't be able to deprive them

  • of air or food or shelter or water

  • or the things that they could make those out for themselves.

  • You shouldn't be able to do that.

  • And if you do, if you do deprive them

  • of the ability to work for themselves

  • without following someone, being a follower

  • of someone else's orders,

  • then you owe them back compensation

  • and compensation is always in cash.

  • Another problem with conditional approach

  • is the conditional, people say, I want to end poverty,

  • but with these conditional programs.

  • You can't do it because unless you have phony conditions.

  • Because conditions, people will always test your condition.

  • If you have a policy

  • that approaches poverty with conditions.

  • if you do this, we'll get you out of poverty.

  • Then you have to have the threat of poverty

  • or some other threat like jail or something

  • for the people who don't meet your conditions.

  • So the conditional programs

  • inherently use poverty as a threat.

  • That's cruel.

  • Shouldn't we be ashamed of ourselves?

  • That's been our approach to poverty for over 100 years.

  • Is threatening people with it.

  • Now of course they'll say things like,

  • well, if we don't make people,

  • if we don't force people to work

  • with this threat of homelessness and economic destitution,

  • they won't work.

  • They'll be lazy.

  • These lazy workers won't work.

  • Notice they do it.

  • Why is it always lazy workers and never cheap employers?

  • Maybe if people, if somebody offers a job

  • and you don't want it, maybe the wages are too low,

  • the working conditions are too poor.

  • Nobody ever talks about this being a conflict

  • and that wages and working conditions might be too poor,

  • that people shouldn't.

  • Maybe they should say no to these jobs.

  • Maybe these are crappy jobs.

  • So we put employers beyond reproach and we judge.

  • You're judging the weakest and the most vulnerable people

  • as being lazy, but the people with privileges,

  • you're not even subjecting them to judgment,

  • not even admitting that this is really a dispute

  • or that people could reasonably disagree on.

  • All of us say everyone must work.

  • We have a work ethic.

  • No, we don't.

  • We don't have a work ethic in this country.

  • Rich people don't work.

  • Well, they can if they want to,

  • but that's what I want for everyone.

  • I think if we're not going to say every single person

  • has to work, then we have to say,

  • no single person has to work.

  • That's equality before the law.

  • We all get access to enough resources

  • so that work is voluntary for everyone,

  • or we have some kind of system where everybody rich or poor,

  • all has to work in equally onerous job.

  • And we're not doing that work.

  • We're not about to hold the wealthy to this.

  • And they'll say everyone and also,

  • they'll say that jobs are fulfilling.

  • Well maybe they are.

  • Sometimes they are, but also things you can do by yourself.

  • Things you can do with resources of your own

  • to combine with other people like you are fulfilling.

  • It's really a condescending way to say

  • that a job where you go in and follow orders

  • is the only way to get familiar.

  • That that's automatically fulfilling.

  • I don't know.

  • I've washed a lot of dishes in my time

  • and I didn't find it terribly fulfilling.

  • Maybe somebody does, that's up to the individual,

  • but up for us, the privilege to say the less privilege

  • are only going to get fulfillment by following orders,

  • but not by getting money that they can buy resources

  • and start their own projects.

  • Well that'll never fulfill them.

  • Only following our orders will fulfill them.

  • That's kind of condescending and self serving.

  • But ultimately, it's self-defeating,

  • at least for most of us, except for the very wealthy

  • because in the last 41 years,

  • national per capita income has doubled.

  • But yet most of us haven't shared in that.

  • We could be working half as much and consuming the same,

  • or we could be working same and consuming double,

  • but most of us are where we were.

  • Most of us were where we were 40 years ago.

  • All those benefits have gotten to the top 1%

  • because of this enormous incentive problem

  • where companies don't have an incentive

  • to share the benefits of economic growth with us.

  • And also people who don't want this.

  • So let's say they'll say, UBI just won't work.

  • It won't work.

  • As if the entire system is going to collapse.

  • People who otherwise praise the market system will say,

  • it'll never work as if the entire capitalist system

  • will collapse if we don't force the less privileged

  • with the threat of poverty

  • and homelessness and destitution to play along.

  • We can never get their voluntary agreement.

  • We must threaten them with this

  • or the whole system collapses.

  • I don't know.

  • If that's true, it shouldn't be so.

  • Also they'll give exaggerated cost figures.

  • They'll say it's really accent.

  • They'll just multiply the number of people

  • getting the basic income by the population.

  • That's not the cost of basic income

  • 'cause most of it's pain and getting paid,

  • you pay your own basic income.

  • Privileged people get 20,000 or 10,000 or 12,000,

  • whatever the figure is.

  • They get that, but they also pay that in taxes.

  • And I've done some estimates that up to five sixths

  • of what you're paying in basic income

  • is just people paying themselves.

  • Once you net that out, the cost of a poverty line

  • basic income at 12,000 a year is 539 billion.

  • And the cost of a much more generous one,

  • a $20,000 a year basic income is,

  • I didn't write that down.

  • Well anyway, it's something in the,

  • it is less than 10% of GDP.

  • - [Charles] Thank you very much.

  • Oren, you're up.

  • - Thank you.

  • All right, well thank you everyone for coming and Karl,

  • you've had to come a lot longer than I had.

  • So I'm glad to be here.

  • I usually try to spend some time

  • at the start of these discussions

  • emphasizing just how crazy an idea

  • of universal basic income is.

  • I think it's important to emphasize

  • that while there sort of seems to be

  • a lot of cultural interest in it right now,

  • and Andrew Yang is making great hay of it.

  • It's not actually anything that has

  • real political salients with the actual population.

  • And one way you can tell this

  • is because when the Green New Deal was initially introduced

  • AOC put out this fact sheet

  • and one of the sub bullets on it

  • was one part of the Green New Deal

  • was going to be unconditional economic support

  • regardless of whether or not someone works.

  • And the backlash and outcry was so severe

  • that it had to quickly be taken out,

  • not from the right of center.

  • The right of center thought

  • this was hilarious and delightful.

  • But from the left of center for whom the AOC Green New Deal,

  • outlandish as it might be was worth discussing.

  • But unconditional economic support

  • was so obviously a nonstarter.

  • And so obviously detrimental

  • to the cause of trying to advance the Green New Deal

  • that it had to be struck.

  • So people who actually work in politics

  • and look at what what people want and are thinking about

  • don't see this as an especially plausible or viable idea.

  • And I think you see some of that in Karl's remarks,

  • which are very interesting philosophically,

  • but I don't think actually hold a lot of water tangibly

  • with respect to how our lives actually operate.

  • I was writing down some of the comments

  • and just to take a few,

  • the idea that you can't work for yourself isn't true.

  • In fact, many, many people work for themselves,

  • start their own businesses, are self employed.

  • The idea that if you take a job,

  • you're a servant to your employer

  • is again a very strange description of employment,

  • which is an agreement between two people

  • to perform a productive task.

  • The idea that if you don't take the job,

  • your employer is therefore "starving you into submission,"

  • is again not relevant in a market economy.

  • If you had a single communist employer, it might be.

  • But in an a market economy,

  • part of the premise is multiple employers

  • are potentially competing for and offering work to workers

  • just as multiple workers

  • potentially offer their labor to the employers.

  • So in the abstract,

  • this idea that somebody is depriving or oppressing somebody

  • might sound appealing,

  • but it's not clear to me who that person is,

  • doing the depriving.

  • And we should be skeptical if we can't identify who that is.

  • I think if we want to believe

  • that we're depriving people of something,

  • we'd also need to know what we're depriving them of.

  • Certainly we don't want to deprive people of air and we don't.

  • And in fact, we have strong environmental laws in place

  • that are widely supported because we can make sense of that.

  • Karl mentioned food, shelter and water as other items.

  • Water, again, we typically protect

  • and is provided by the government.

  • Things like food and shelter though

  • do not exist in the state of nature

  • for us to just go in frolic among.

  • We actually have to produce those things.

  • And so I think it's really important to keep in mind

  • that what we're talking about is how much stuff

  • and material quality of living is our economy generating

  • and under what conditions do people gain access to it?

  • If for instance, we said the basic necessities

  • of staying alive, food, shelter, medical care

  • are something we should provide to everybody,

  • I think that's a view that would achieve widespread support

  • and is of course, exactly how we provide

  • our safety net today.

  • It's not true that food stamps run out.

  • We provide in addition to guaranteed access

  • to emergency care in hospitals.

  • We obviously have a trillion dollar,

  • well, $600 billion of Medicaid

  • and another trillion of Medicare.

  • And so we have all these programs

  • and the question is to look around and ask,

  • well, what's missing?

  • Do we really have all of these people

  • being starved into submission?

  • And the answer is no, we don't actually have anybody

  • being starved into submission.

  • Do we have holes in our safety net?

  • Could we make it more effective?

  • Absolutely.

  • And I think that would be a great conversation to have.

  • But to take the fraction of a percent of a population

  • that not only is not able to participate

  • in the productive economy but is also not served

  • by the trillions of dollars we spend a year

  • in making sure those basic needs are met and say,

  • rather than address that we should replace the entire system

  • with up to $20,000 going to every person in the country,

  • I think is very hard to justify

  • just on the practical merits

  • when we talk tangibly about what actually is happening here.

  • And now all of that being said,

  • we could still say, well, okay,

  • so we don't need a UBI, but we like one.

  • We think it sounds nice.

  • Would be great if we just all got a check every month.

  • And I want to talk about the couple of reasons

  • why that would not in fact be nice.

  • One of them is more sort of conceptual and in principle

  • and then one is very nuts and bolts.

  • And I'll take the nuts and bolts one first

  • because I think it's easier,

  • and ultimately less important.

  • We could technically do a basic income as Karl pointed out.

  • It is within the scale of resources

  • in our society to do one.

  • It's important to recognize though

  • that even if what you're saying at the end of the day

  • is that people are going to be receiving

  • their own basic income to offset the taxes they're paying.

  • The tax burden is still enormous.

  • And this is similar to the debate we're seeing

  • in Medicare for All where supporters of it

  • are trying to explain, well, ignore the fact

  • that there's a massive middle-class tax increase

  • because you're also getting free healthcare.

  • And that's fine.

  • That's an exchange we could decide we want to make,

  • but let's make sure we understand

  • what the tax side of that equation looks like.

  • If you wanted to provide $10,000 to every American,

  • you'd be talking about upwards

  • of three trillion dollars a year.

  • We typically talk in 10-year budget frames.

  • You're talking about $30 trillion over 10 years.

  • Conveniently, that's about what Medicare for All costs,

  • though note that money doesn't cover your healthcare.

  • So in addition to that, we're going to need to decide

  • what we're doing about healthcare.

  • But where would we get 30 trillion of income

  • on top of the $15 trillion

  • 10-year budget deficit we already have?

  • Well, even if you took every dollar earned by everyone

  • who earns over $500,000 a year,

  • you could get maybe 10 trillion,

  • assuming they all still work

  • and just give you all their money.

  • CBO has scored what it would take

  • to actually raise the $30 trillion for Medicare for All,

  • or in this case, to provide basic income.

  • And what you'd be looking at

  • is a 39 percentage point increase in the payroll tax.

  • So what that means is every dollar you earn

  • beginning from the first dollar,

  • the majority of it is now re collected in taxes.

  • Now, do you also get the basic income?

  • Sure.

  • But what's that going to do to how you feel about working

  • to the return to actually participating productively

  • in the economy, to create all of these things

  • that we are allegedly excluding people from?

  • It's a real problem.

  • Another thing you could do as an 88% value added tax,

  • roughly a sales tax that doubled the cost

  • of everything in the economy.

  • That would pay for this.

  • But now everything in the economy would cost twice as much.

  • So essentially, taking out of one pocket

  • to put into the other.

  • So that's sort of the scale of tax increase

  • you're talking about.

  • And again, then with no money left over

  • to do something like Medicare for All

  • or all of the other things we might still care about.

  • Even if you could do it though,

  • for me, the more interesting question is should you?

  • And here I think the conceptual question

  • is such a fascinating one.

  • I think Karl has presented one view on it,

  • which is based in this idea that the resources

  • that exist in the economy

  • and to be a little bit on charitable,

  • magically exist regardless of whether or not we make them

  • are everybody's entitlement

  • and that that is a preferred way that people think is fair.

  • I don't think that's actually true.

  • I think actually the value of work

  • and the reason that we say that work is fulfilling

  • is not because dishwashing is inherently fun,

  • but it's because actually doing something productive

  • for society in return for which you receive back

  • the things you want from society

  • is core to both our understanding of ourselves

  • and core to a healthy society.

  • Social science repeatedly shows that employed work,

  • this exploitative avoidance of starving into submission

  • is in fact crucial to people's life satisfaction,

  • their self esteem, their mental health.

  • Certainly if you ever want to move up on the economic ladder,

  • you'd better step onto that first rung.

  • It's at least as important for family formation,

  • the economic rationale for marriage,

  • the centrality of that relationship

  • to being able to support and provide for a family

  • is critical to creating marriages in the first place

  • and to their stability.

  • When work goes away, especially for men,

  • family formation declines, divorce skyrockets.

  • Work is critical for children.

  • Children being raised in households where people are working

  • have better outcomes.

  • Children being raised just in communities

  • where people are working, have better outcomes.

  • And all of this is holding constant income.

  • This isn't because people who are working are earning more.

  • It's because work really has value in the human condition.

  • And so what I'd say we should think about conceptually

  • is this, do we believe a basic income

  • is the right way to raise our kids?

  • Because today, certainly everyone who's well-off

  • has that choice.

  • You could raise your kid telling them,

  • maybe you'll go off and do something productive,

  • but I want you to know I'm going to provide you

  • this steady income that's enough to live on

  • regardless of what you do with your life

  • beginning at age 18.

  • Typically we think that's probably

  • not the ideal way to build a healthy society.

  • And the thing about a UBI is that a UBI

  • is the equivalent of your crazy uncle Sam

  • showing up and doing it at Thanksgiving.

  • Because if we create a UBI,

  • you as a parent can't exclude your kid from it.

  • Your kid will receive it.

  • The cultural message will be there,

  • that when you turn 18,

  • you could start moving forward with a productive life.

  • Or you could also just smoke pot in the basement

  • and play video games and backpack around Europe indefinitely

  • and there'd be nothing you could do to prevent that.

  • And so I think the day when we say,

  • actually, gosh, yes, that is the society we want,

  • that's what we should be striving for.

  • That's the day when this will be politically viable

  • and when philosophically we should find it compelling.

  • But until then we should recognize it

  • as an interesting thought exercise,

  • a good way to test our priors,

  • a good way to think about how we can be doing a better job

  • with the safety net we have,

  • but not something we would ever want to consider actually

  • imposing on ourselves.

  • Thank you.

  • - Thank you.

  • And then we'll have a five minute rebuttal

  • and both of you are allowed to ask each other questions.

  • It's going to be a discussion as well as the debate.

  • So Karl, five minutes for your response.

  • - Okay, sure.

  • Sort of making competitive assertions here.

  • Let me try to explain what this,

  • I think you're under an illusion

  • of wildly exaggerated cost figures,

  • and let me try to explain that.

  • What really affects people's behavior

  • and their lifestyle as far as what tax costs are,

  • are their total tax burden and their marginal tax rates.

  • And making a universal basic income

  • rather than a target program doesn't affect,

  • it doesn't affect either one.

  • The targeted version of basic income

  • is called a negative income tax.

  • And negative income tax only gives to those with low income

  • to make sure we get up to some minimum.

  • So let me imagine it.

  • So let's say that the people

  • on my right side of the aisle to my right,

  • that group of people are,

  • let's say it's about a sixth of us,

  • say those are the low income people

  • and everyone here is the higher income people.

  • And you're all collectively going to pay taxes

  • to help this group.

  • And that's going to cost you.

  • So you're going to give them each a dollar.

  • What's that about?

  • That's about 50 people.

  • That's going to cost you collectively about $50.

  • Now then, so that's a targeted program,

  • and then where say, okay, then what I want you all to do,

  • all the rest of, we're going to change this targeted program

  • into a universal program.

  • So I want you all to do is to take a dollar

  • out of your wallet and put it back in your wallet.

  • How much does that cost you?

  • That costs you nothing.

  • Your wallet after the first one,

  • your wallets all got a little smaller.

  • That cost you something.

  • After the second one, your wallet didn't get any smaller.

  • We took it out, we put up again.

  • We could do that again.

  • Take it out again, put it up again.

  • We can do that a trillion times.

  • It wouldn't make any difference.

  • The only meaningful cost that affects

  • either your marginal costs or your total tax burden

  • is how much is being distributed from the net contributors

  • to the net beneficiaries.

  • That's the only meaningful cost

  • and that's less than 3% of GDP

  • for a poverty line, basic income

  • and less than 10% of GDP for a $20,000,

  • much more generous basic income.

  • Now, the idea that you can work for yourself

  • it's just simply not true.

  • If you have no resources, you don't get resources.

  • You can work for a client, but a group of homeless people

  • cannot work for each other as clients

  • 'cause they don't have any money or resources

  • or anything to reward each other with.

  • And it's not true that we all work in a circle,

  • that we all work for each other.

  • We work in something like a pyramid.

  • The extent that you can work for a boss or a client

  • depends on how much money they have.

  • And how much money they have,

  • depends on how many services they provide

  • with people with even more money.

  • We cannot in any meaningful way, work for ourselves

  • the way my grandfather did on his farm

  • or the way a friend of mine's grandfather in Somalia did

  • as a nomadic herder.

  • That opportunity is lost to us in this system

  • without a basic income.

  • We have to go and find somebody with property to do it.

  • It's simply not true that we can work for ourselves

  • in the meaningful way that I'm talking about it.

  • And so jobs mean following the desires

  • and the winds of those.

  • And many of our jobs are meaninglessly

  • following whims of wealthy people.

  • A lot of them are counterproductive,

  • doing very wasteful things for very wealthy people.

  • And we are killing the environment that we live in

  • doing all these wasteful things for wealthy people.

  • And we wouldn't be the first society that did it.

  • In Easter Island, they had people chopping down trees

  • to build monuments to rich people

  • and then carry them across the island and set them up.

  • And they chopped down every last tree on the island

  • and then couldn't go out on fishing expeditions anymore

  • and had a big population crash.

  • And were doing something, not all work is productive.

  • And multiple employers is better than being a chattel slave.

  • But multiple employers is not the same thing

  • as working for yourself with your own resources.

  • It is a choice of masters.

  • And this, if people will pretend,

  • choice of masters is exactly the same

  • as being able to work for yourself.

  • They will pretend that.

  • Now, even though the people who created this system

  • explicitly said that's not true,

  • and that's why we're doing this.

  • The peasants of Europe before the enclosure movement,

  • many of them were able to work for themselves.

  • And you know what they said about those peasants

  • who worked for themselves on their own farms

  • or on common lands?

  • They said, these are lazy

  • because they won't accept my wage work.

  • And so they intentionally said, what we need to do

  • is to privatize, enclose all of this land

  • and then they'll have to work for us.

  • Now they pretend, as long as you have a choice of people,

  • then we're not forcing you to do anything.

  • No, it's true.

  • No one employer is forcing you to work for them,

  • but the government system is forcing all of us

  • to work for those who control enough property.

  • (mumbles)

  • - [Charles] Oren, five minutes roughly.

  • - I just don't think this is an accurate description

  • of our economy.

  • I mean you could go start a pizza shop

  • in a working class neighborhood

  • that sells pizza virtually exclusively

  • to other working class people.

  • That'd be fine.

  • We live in an economy where you actually are expected

  • to produce and contribute something of value to others

  • in return for the things you want a value from them.

  • And to describe that as this exploited pyramid scheme,

  • I think is both conceptually and in fact wrong.

  • One easy way to say this is to just,

  • let's kind of embrace the hypothetical

  • and say you know what, you're right.

  • That enclosure movement in 1600s England was a tragedy.

  • Let's take some federal lands out West and open them up

  • where anyone who wants to go be a homesteader

  • and farm themselves is welcome to.

  • Would that satisfy us?

  • The answer is it wouldn't.

  • No one would take that seriously

  • because the things that we want

  • and that you're supposed to be able to buy

  • with this 10 or $20,000 of basic income

  • includes health care and cars, and electronics

  • and all sorts of things

  • that of course you can't produce for yourself.

  • So by definition, if we want to live in the modern economy

  • and enjoy the material standard of living

  • that a basic income is attempting to provide to people,

  • we've already given up on this idea

  • that working for yourself could mean genuinely,

  • simply supplying your own needs.

  • We are going to be in an exchange economy

  • and then the question is just do we like the idea

  • that we actually expect everyone

  • to contribute and exchange in it?

  • And I think we do.

  • And the what did you start me at?

  • (mumbles)

  • - [Charles] You got about three minutes.

  • - Perfect.

  • 'Cause I'll keep going. - Yeah I know.

  • (laughing)

  • (mumbles)

  • - But this question of why we want the exchange economy

  • and what does the alternative look like

  • I think is really important.

  • 'Cause I think Karl made a very fair point

  • in his opening statement, which he said,

  • some people say the capitalist system

  • is going to collapse with a basic income.

  • People do say that, and I agree it's a silly thing to say.

  • The concern is not in my mind

  • that the capitalist system will collapse.

  • It's that we will accelerate

  • on the trajectory we are on right now

  • of an ever smaller share of the population

  • creating ever more of the economic value

  • and essentially writing checks

  • to everybody else to leave them alone.

  • In 2010, at sort of the depth of the recession,

  • we were down to a point where only 53%

  • of working class households had even one full time worker.

  • Now, in terms of material standard of living,

  • everyone at every point in the socioeconomic spectrum

  • is doing better than they ever had before.

  • Thanks to the range of transfer program

  • and thanks to progress in technology.

  • People have more better stuff than ever

  • at every point on the socioeconomic spectrum.

  • But we don't actually, we recognize

  • that that's not satisfactory,

  • that a society in which an ever smaller share

  • are the productive valued members

  • and everyone else who's supposed to live

  • on transfers to them is not a good one for society

  • and it's not a good one for the recipients.

  • And by the way, if you speak to people

  • in working class households,

  • people who are struggling about what they want,

  • it doesn't tend to be a check, it tends to be a job.

  • In fact, if anything, you will find an inverse relationship

  • between how wealthy someone is

  • and how excited they are about universal basic income.

  • So the idea that we have these exploitive masters

  • who are forcing everybody to work

  • and it would be much nicer if we just wrote them checks

  • is again, neither conceptually nor factually accurate.

  • It's condescending and it completely fails to appreciate

  • what is actually central to a good life,

  • what people want, what we all want.

  • The idea that rich people don't work is simply not true.

  • Rich people, including these Dartmouth college students

  • when they graduate, most of them are going to go work

  • really hard and we consider that to be core

  • to how you build a good life.

  • So what I worry about is not the system collapsing,

  • but releasing the political pressure

  • to actually make the kinds of reforms

  • that would move us toward an economy

  • where everyone can be a productive contributor

  • and support a family.

  • Because when Karl said

  • no one subjects employers to scrutiny, that's just not true.

  • I wrote an entire book called,

  • subtitled, " A Vision for the Renewal of Work in America,"

  • which is about all the three ways

  • that elites have screwed up policy

  • and employers are behaving badly and we need to do better

  • if we're going to provide meaningful

  • and family supporting work for everybody.

  • And I would say that's a much more constructive conversation

  • to have in a much better direction for our society

  • than how big a check we need to write

  • to make them leave us alone.

  • - So I want to probe what I think is an area of agreement

  • we were meeting before we came out here.

  • And one of the rationales

  • for a more comprehensive social safety net and the UBI,

  • if you choose to do it that way,

  • is the fear of rising automation, artificial intelligence.

  • So there's always been creative destruction,

  • jobs being destroyed, but there's a fear

  • that that will likely accelerate and therefore,

  • we have to pay more attention

  • to those who will be displaced.

  • And if you could each comment

  • on that and how it relates to your view of the UBI.

  • - You can go first.

  • - I'll say, I think it's an interesting question

  • because you can't prove the negative.

  • I can't prove that it never will accelerate

  • and the singularity will never come.

  • And so I will stipulate that if and when

  • the singularity comes then like luxury automated communism

  • or whatever the kids are talking about these days

  • is something left to at least grapple with.

  • What I can prove is that it's not happening now,

  • that in fact we are not seeing increased rates of automation

  • and technology and production.

  • And we can tell because we measure productivity.

  • And productivity growth is not accelerating.

  • It's in fact stalling out.

  • We can have a great conversation

  • about all the reasons for that.

  • If I could say it really succinctly,

  • it would be robots are cool,

  • but you know what's even cooler, electricity.

  • And that is as incredible

  • as the things we're developing right now seem frankly,

  • the lower hanging fruit was in the past

  • and we showed it was perfectly compatible

  • to increasing incredible amounts of new technology

  • and use it to actually boost workers productivity

  • and boost quality of life

  • and standard of living for everybody,

  • and that that's what we should still be striving for.

  • - I don't make this automation argument as you described.

  • I think that it is possible that that could happen,

  • but it also leads to the (mumbles)

  • and then if it does someday, then we'll have basic income.

  • But I think there are automation related reasons

  • why we need basic income now.

  • One of which I mentioned in my opening remarks

  • is that we have this incentive problem

  • where we don't have incentive

  • for employers to pass on the benefits

  • of automation to all of us.

  • The reason that our economy as on a per capita basis

  • has doubled in the last 41 years

  • is largely because of automation.

  • And the reason so many of us haven't got our share

  • is because we don't have the power to say no to poor wages

  • and bad working conditions.

  • Is that if basic income is not about nobody works.

  • It's about we as a society commit ourselves

  • that nobody ever lacks for their most basic needs,

  • but we offer them good positive reasons to work,

  • good wages, good working conditions,

  • and they say everyone has their price.

  • People will work if you pay them enough.

  • And that's a responsibility we should all give to ourselves

  • is to pay ourselves enough.

  • So you create the situation where people don't have to work,

  • but they can work.

  • You give this incentive to pass on

  • the benefits of automation to everyone.

  • That's one reason why we need a basic income now.

  • Another reason is that basic income

  • is that creative destruction,

  • is that it destroys this industry

  • and it creates that industry.

  • So even if the number of jobs isn't ultimately decreasing,

  • or even if it's increasing,

  • if you've worked in this industry

  • and you're in your 40s and your 50s

  • and that industry is destroyed,

  • then you go back to the bottom.

  • That's cruel to people and very often,

  • they can't find a job in the bottom.

  • You find a lot of people whose jobs

  • are out motored applying for disability

  • or for something else because they can't find a decent job.

  • And this is why there was a lot of movement 200 years ago,

  • not because people were against technology,

  • but because technology was taking away the middle class jobs

  • of people who worked in the textile mills

  • and forcing them into the bottom,

  • which was poverty-wage jobs at the time.

  • It was this very rational response.

  • You need basic income to cushion people

  • to what would be one of the otherwise

  • really cruel aspects of a creative destruction economy.

  • We don't need that.

  • - I have a question for both of you all.

  • I'm going to ask it in two different ways.

  • So Karl, are there some aspects of the social safety net

  • that are targeted that might be more productive

  • than giving people cash?

  • So for example, targeted early childhood education,

  • which might make other workers of future generations

  • more productive, more successful in the labor force.

  • That will be that example.

  • Flip side of the question for Oren is,

  • are there some aspects of the social safety net

  • that would be better to give people cash?

  • So for example, unemployment for workers in their 50s

  • where we know retraining isn't very effective.

  • We know some of the systems for making people eligible

  • are very cumbersome.

  • So really flip side of the same question

  • or something's better targeted and some things better,

  • just lump sum cash, Karl.

  • - Oh yeah, I think it would be very cruel

  • if you had a basic income society and then you told somebody

  • somebody who is a paraplegic,

  • you're going to have to buy your own wheelchair

  • out of your basic income.

  • You want to have a little more

  • of a level playing field than that.

  • And specifically target things.

  • I think healthcare is probably better provided.

  • I'm not an expert on the health industry,

  • but I think it's probably better provided with direct means

  • rather than just giving people cash

  • and putting them to the private healthcare market.

  • Public school or some kind of targeted school,

  • I don't think we should be letting parents decide to say,

  • well, I'm not going to send you to school,

  • but I'm going to put your basic income

  • have a basic income high enough to cover your school.

  • But it's all private schools

  • and your parents can just decide

  • to put that in a trust fund for you

  • and they get it when you're 18.

  • No matter how much you get when you're 18,

  • it's not going to make up for that very bad decision

  • your parents made when you're young.

  • So yeah, there are things that are better targeted.

  • - I do think there's a particular case for cash,

  • which I'll come to in a moment, but I want to emphasize

  • the importance of the case for not cash.

  • And this comes back to to the point Karl was making

  • about why the expense isn't necessarily that large,

  • which is essentially they were saying

  • today we have this system that phases out

  • as you start to earn more money

  • and that unfortunately, has the effect of discouraging you

  • from going to work in the first place.

  • It's a huge problem with our safety net.

  • And what I took to be his defense of basic income

  • from a fiscal perspective was that at the end of the day,

  • the basic income kind of works the same way.

  • You start with a bunch of cash,

  • and because we're going to have much higher tax rates

  • as you switch into work, the marginal gain of working

  • isn't going to be as high as it might otherwise be.

  • And so I think it's very interesting

  • to actually kind of line these up next to each other

  • and say, well, one way to think about basic income

  • is we're kind of just taking all those benefits

  • we already provide and saying it wouldn't it be better

  • if that was all just cash?

  • And my answer that question is no.

  • That while certainly our existing mix of benefit programs

  • is messy, that that messiness is a feature and not a bug.

  • And that what we've done is to build a safety net

  • that guarantees that people don't truly go

  • without the basics, food, shelter, medical care

  • but that we provide those basics

  • in a way that's frankly not as good

  • as being able to afford them yourself.

  • And while that might seem harsh,

  • it's actually critically important

  • in a society where we commit to providing the basics

  • to everybody that we still say, you know what?

  • You're still better off in a relatively low wage job

  • earning and providing yourself

  • than asking government to provide for you.

  • And so I would say it's affirmatively a good thing

  • that we provide safety net benefits in kind and not in cash.

  • The one place where I think a cash benefit

  • could be very attractive is in what I call a wage subsidy,

  • which is one policy I very strongly support

  • is trying to actually boost wages

  • at the low end of the scale

  • by putting more money directly in people's paychecks.

  • So one way to think of this

  • is sort of as a reverse payroll tax.

  • Just as today, we look at how much your paycheck is

  • and we take money out, even if it's a very low paycheck.

  • You could just as easily look at that and say,

  • well, for people earning,

  • if this is a nine dollar an hour job,

  • we're going to put three or $4 an hour in

  • and that's going to phase down.

  • So by the time you're at $15 an hour,

  • you're just earning the market wage.

  • But if we did that, we would get more support to people

  • at the low end of the income spectrum.

  • We would make it more attractive

  • to get in and take that job in the first place.

  • But we would do it in a way that affirms the value of work

  • and ties it to a commitment

  • to making a productive contribution to society,

  • instead of offering it

  • in the absence of that kind of activity.

  • - Arthur Brooks was here a couple of weeks ago,

  • former president of the American Enterprise Institute.

  • I think he agreed with both of you in some respects.

  • He proposed a fairly significant jobs program.

  • I think he may have, I don't want to put words in his mouth.

  • He may have offered up a jobs guarantee.

  • And so my question for you is,

  • if this were Congress and they came to you,

  • both of you and said, okay, Karl,

  • we're going to provide a basic standard of living

  • for everybody, but we're going to violate

  • one of your precepts here,

  • which is they're going to have to work.

  • It's going to be conditioned on that

  • but everybody's going to get it.

  • And they said, Oren you've said a lot

  • about the importance of work, but it's going to be expensive

  • and some of these jobs are going to be make work jobs,

  • but we will be getting people into the labor force

  • and it probably be meaningful for them.

  • Is that a world where you guys might be able to compromise

  • and say yes or is that unacceptable to both of you?

  • - I suspect we'll both say no.

  • I don't know who you want to have sets.

  • - That's my unique gift here.

  • (mumbles)

  • - I'll say no first.

  • In theory, the idea of a jobs guarantee

  • I think sounds like a step in the right direction.

  • I think the problems with the job's guarantee

  • are very practical.

  • One is just that it is not something

  • government is especially well equipped to doing.

  • And like you said, you end up with a lot of regret.

  • I think it's very explicit

  • that it's actually a lot more expensive than tax

  • 'cause you get--

  • - Right.

  • Secondly, you actively crowd out private sector jobs.

  • And so you actually, you end up even with a drag

  • beyond just the make work nature of what you're doing.

  • Thirdly, you have a real cyclical problem,

  • which is you need to come up with a program

  • that can both employ 15 million people in 2009

  • but only three million people in 2019.

  • And so while we hear about all these things,

  • we need more workers for, elder care, pick your thing,

  • none of those actually work for this

  • because they're also going to be times

  • when there aren't a lot of people taking you up

  • on the public sector job guarantee.

  • So in my mind, the wage subsidy is actually

  • effectively a private sector job guarantee.

  • The idea is to say we value the existence of these jobs.

  • We would rather set a essentially market price

  • on the creation of UBAM

  • and let whoever in the private sector

  • is going to find the best use of that labor step forward.

  • And then it's automatically responsive

  • to the business cycle.

  • And it leaves government doing what it's fairly good at,

  • which is running the money process.

  • But I think the public job guarantee

  • just doesn't work at the end of the day.

  • - Karl. - Yeah.

  • I actually, one of the...

  • One of my complaints about the job guarantee.

  • I think a job guarantee could help a lot of people.

  • I think we have to admit that.

  • And whether it's, even though it's not

  • our most desired program.

  • But I think it has one of the same problems

  • as this patchwork of conditional programs

  • that you spoke in praise of earlier,

  • and that is that it creates,

  • all of these things create a poverty track,

  • where you either you do your guaranteed job

  • or your work in the private sector

  • and there's the kind of a dichotomy there.

  • You have a similar thing.

  • Either you're on unemployment insurance

  • or you lose the whole unemployment insurance

  • and you're in the private sector.

  • Either you're on disability or you lose a whole disability

  • and you're in private sector.

  • Very often you lose an entire house,

  • public housing subsidies and get around.

  • And what these do is they create

  • this notch where actually you make more,

  • but your income goes down.

  • Basic income, unlike the job guarantee

  • and many of these other things,

  • you might be able to structure a subsidy that work this way.

  • They try to structure the earned income tracks

  • credits this way so that there is no such notch.

  • There's always a possibility of you earning more.

  • The incentive to work and basic income

  • is the basic income is basic.

  • It's not deathly low, but homelessness is real.

  • We really do have people living on the street

  • and eating out of dumpsters.

  • And people and very often you find people in shelters,

  • they try to get them eligible for something

  • and they don't find anything they're eligible for.

  • But other people who are on programs,

  • they often have to give it all up.

  • Where if you have the whole thing up to get something,

  • where the basic income and if you have a marginal tax rate

  • that is say 30% you've got say just to make the math easy,

  • a $10,000 basic income, you get a $10,000 job,

  • your after tax income is $17,000, not quite double.

  • That's a pretty good,

  • that's a pretty big boost in your standard of living.

  • Pretty good incentive for you to take a job.

  • So basic income works in better than,

  • I think it works better for getting people

  • to be able to move back into the labor force

  • where they're in a system

  • where you've got to prove you're disabled

  • and then keep proving it by never working again.

  • - So we're going to have microphones in a minute.

  • My last question is, I think you both agree

  • that we're all better off if people enter the labor market

  • with more skills, right?

  • And a lot of the debate

  • over whether they can really work for yourself

  • depends on what you have to sell to a capitalist economy.

  • Do either of you have top of mind suggestions

  • about policies that would upgrade

  • the skills of the workforce,

  • irrespective of what we do for the folks who fall out

  • and don't thrive in that system?

  • - Well, one of the best things you can do

  • for improving education outcomes

  • and for improving productivity is to make sure

  • no child ever grows up in poverty.

  • Poverty during childhood

  • is one of the worst things that you can have

  • for the rest of your life, increased costs for you

  • and it creates cost for the rest of society.

  • But when they talk about we've got to give

  • this work incentive, they're actually,

  • your children, the fear that your children

  • are going to grow up in poverty is one of those incentives

  • and it's not the children's fault.

  • So one of the things we most need

  • is to make sure no child ever does.

  • No child ever grows up in poverty

  • and that very much increases their performance in school.

  • They found that in a lot of the negative

  • income tax experiments in the 1970s

  • is they found that student performance

  • and students staying in school went way up

  • when they're not under this constant threat.

  • And that's why we have things.

  • We have all this patchwork of policies

  • like school lunch programs, subsidized school lunch programs

  • is a bare substitution for a system

  • makes sure that no child grows up in poverty.

  • - I agree with the child poverty point,

  • although again, I would ask kind of how do we plan

  • to solve it and what are we going to give up along the way?

  • It's certainly true that kids raised in better off homes,

  • have better outcomes.

  • It's even more true that kids raised

  • in two-parent households have better outcomes.

  • So my favorite stat about American public policy,

  • which is work that Richard Reeves did

  • at the Brookings Institution found that if you look at kids

  • who grow up in the bottom quintile,

  • the lowest 20th percentile

  • are 20% of the income distribution.

  • If they are raised by continuously married parents,

  • they have almost exactly equal chances

  • of landing in any queen tile as adults.

  • In fact, they are more likely to land in the top quintile

  • than stay in the bottom quintile.

  • If you asked the same question

  • about kids raised in single-parent homes,

  • they are 10 times as likely to remain in the bottom quintile

  • as reach the top quintile.

  • So I'm certainly sympathetic to the idea

  • that material conditions matter at the margin.

  • But if I had to choose, I would care an awful lot more

  • about finding way to get our society

  • to a point where kids are being raised

  • in stable two-parent households

  • with at least one parent who's working

  • over moving to a system that is probably going to,

  • based on everything we know,

  • lead to fewer people in that situation

  • even if they are receiving larger checks.

  • Where I would focus is on providing

  • non-college pathways into the workforce.

  • It's this critical juncture point

  • around when people are entering adulthood

  • around age 18 where I think saying,

  • and you now get a check every month,

  • regardless of what you do is so damaging.

  • But then what we do today is also incredibly damaging,

  • which is we say, go to college or you get nothing.

  • Go to college and we spend

  • about $150 billion annually subsidizing you.

  • Don't go to college and we don't know,

  • we haven't thought about it.

  • And the reality is that most high school graduates,

  • let's not forget, we still have almost 20%

  • who don't even complete high school.

  • Most high school graduates are not ready for college

  • and most people who enroll in college

  • will not complete or will end up in a job

  • that doesn't require a degree.

  • So rather than just keep shoving people

  • through that pipeline,

  • we should be frankly doing the opposite.

  • We should be saying,

  • if you think you're going to succeed in college,

  • there are going to be great economic opportunities for you

  • and you'll probably be able to pay back your loans.

  • But we have a $150 billion over here

  • to invest in helping people who aren't on that track

  • to actually get into their first job,

  • develop some real skills and get them to age 20

  • with years on the job, marketable skills,

  • money in the bank, an employer.

  • And I think that would be a much better pathway.

  • And so step one would be for places like Dartmouth

  • to give all the money back.

  • - [Charles] And what's step two?

  • (audience laughing)

  • - Step two is to then commit that money to alternatives.

  • So one thing you can do

  • is directly invest in better vocational education programs,

  • which we should start at the high school level.

  • It makes no sense to just have college prep academies

  • until you walk across the stage with your diploma,

  • even if most of those kids

  • aren't going to succeed in college.

  • But I also think we should be providing,

  • as with wage subsidy,

  • we should be subsidizing employers directly.

  • We have this weird kind of concept

  • that obviously it makes sense to give Dartmouth $10,000

  • to help some for a year here.

  • But oh, heaven forbid we give $10,000 to a corporation.

  • And yet if I step back and ask

  • which institution in our society

  • is best suited to help exactly the population

  • that is struggling to establish themselves

  • in the labor force?

  • It's not Dartmouth.

  • It's not any school.

  • It's employers.

  • Now a lot of times what employers will do

  • is turn around and make a deal with the community college

  • to set up a training program.

  • But if they did that,

  • then the employer would be the community college's customer.

  • And I think we get awfully better outcomes

  • than the 15% completion rates

  • we get in community colleges today,

  • if the way they stayed in business

  • was to provide value to employers

  • as opposed to by enrolling students

  • and then cashing federal checks.

  • - Okay, let's open it up.

  • I think there are microphones back there.

  • So put your hand up.

  • I'll call on you.

  • Wait for the microphone 'cause it's being recorded.

  • We'll start, so up here in the front.

  • Eliza Jane?

  • - Area. - No, that as me.

  • - I will repeat the question, so go ahead.

  • (speaking off mic)

  • - I was wondering if you would talk about

  • (mumbles)

  • What I mean by that is this,

  • the way as our economy grows,

  • the money supply needs to grow too.

  • The way we do account was by borrowing money.

  • Like I mentioned, the $24 trillion federal debt

  • and bankers buy bonds and then loan out money to all of us

  • with home loans and credit card loans and things

  • and grow the money supply.

  • That one what have they said that we figured out

  • how much we need to grow the money supply

  • and then issue everybody their share.

  • Isn't money a shared resource?

  • Why did the bankers get the profit

  • and not the guy whose already with a PDR,

  • which I think is more valuable.

  • - Okay.

  • Raise the tax issue.

  • The question is seigniorage,

  • can we use an expanded money supply

  • to fund some of these plans?

  • - You were you not expecting a seigniorage question?

  • - I was not.

  • I love seigniorage.

  • - It's a very interesting question.

  • I actually have a friend in Boston

  • who's working on a similar concept.

  • And so I won't do full justice to it

  • 'cause I'm not a monetary policy expert.

  • But what I would say at least in part

  • is I think it's really important to separate

  • the way that we expand money supply through credit,

  • through the banking system

  • from the way we expand money supply

  • through actual seigniorage,

  • literally the government just creating money

  • out of thin air.

  • And my sense is that the government creating money

  • out of thin air, I mean in a sense of just fun,

  • at the end of the funds is part of the government.

  • So in a sense it is shared by all of us.

  • Everyone gets a slightly lower tax burden as a result.

  • Whereas to your point,

  • when the money supply is expanded through credit,

  • that is something that operates within the financial system.

  • It's not clear to me if you could replace

  • the expand money supply in the financial system

  • through credit with just giving everyone more money.

  • And the reason I say that is because I think

  • it would be quite inflationary.

  • And so that may be an insufficient response and I apologize,

  • I'm not not the expert on it,

  • but it strikes me that to the extent

  • our solution is just kind of throw money

  • out of helicopters to everybody.

  • You have a problem that if it's chasing

  • the same set of stuff in the economy,

  • we haven't actually produced anything more.

  • So we could have a redistributive effect,

  • but we're not actually any wealthier.

  • We've simply created more money

  • chasing the same amount of stuff.

  • - [Charles] Go ahead Karl.

  • - I think that there's an enormous amount

  • of government giveaway in the federal reserve system.

  • I'm also not an expert on financial accounts

  • and so I'm not going to get on with it

  • in the technicalities of it.

  • But the federal reserve system versus government

  • lends either creates money directly,

  • lends it to the federal reserve banks at a very low rate.

  • Then they rented out to the rest.

  • They lend it to the rest of us at higher rates,

  • then we buy stuff, deposit it back in those banks

  • and they lend it out again, which creates more money,

  • which means that most of the money creating,

  • the banks are just doing this,

  • based on this little amount that the government makes.

  • The banks are creating most of money

  • and getting most of the profits out there.

  • And the federal reserve system is set up

  • to make the banks have very little risk as they do this.

  • The government insures them against all the risk

  • and the federal reserve system

  • is run by very wealthy private bankers.

  • And it's set up that all the boards are made up

  • around a very wealthy private banks.

  • It's supposed to be,

  • it's one of our most essential public trust

  • and it is being run by some of our wealthiest people

  • whose first concern is for their own corporations

  • and their own money.

  • And that's part of the corruption

  • that is built into our system that is so corrupt

  • that we don't even think of it as corruption.

  • Which is one of the reasons I'm skeptical

  • of giving even more money to businesses through subsidies.

  • We'll do anything for the poor,

  • except for actually helped the poor.

  • We'll give it to the rich people.

  • So we want to help the poor.

  • Okay, let's have a casino.

  • We'll subsidize a casino.

  • Oh, let's help the poor.

  • We'll get some jobs for the poor

  • by subsidizing the local football team.

  • Oh that'll generate jobs.

  • Well, it'll generate a lot of money

  • for the guy who owns the sta,

  • who gets to own that stadium.

  • Oh, we want to help people get jobs.

  • Let's subsidize the automobile companies.

  • While it's very good for the automobile companies,

  • but very few jobs end up coming out of it

  • and we do one thing after another.

  • The government just gives out one favor after another

  • for wealthy people including the fact

  • that we probably, almost everybody here

  • has pennies in their pocket.

  • I don't like throwing them in the trash where they belong.

  • Pennies.

  • We only make pennies

  • because the company that sells the pennies to the government

  • gives so many bribes.

  • I mean campaign contributions to members of Congress

  • that they keep buying the pennies.

  • That's the way most of the defense department works.

  • It's not because the generals and the admirals

  • think we need most of that stuff.

  • It's because companies want to sell this to the government,

  • so they give those bribes we call campaign contributions

  • to members of Congress and the government buys it and says,

  • oh, it's a public works project.

  • It'll give people jobs and it'll defend us.

  • I have this ridiculous weapons things

  • is that we live in a system

  • where the corruption is so built in

  • that we don't even think of it as corruption.

  • All of those senators and Congress people

  • who are taking all these campaign contributions

  • don't even think of it as a bribe.

  • That is one of the most fundamental things we attack

  • and the banking system is just one small example.

  • You take away this stuff

  • and there's lots of money to finance basic income

  • and other things that are actually going to help

  • the people who need it.

  • - So do we have questions on this side?

  • So Taylor in the red hat.

  • - Thank you both for your remarks today.

  • Really enjoyed hearing from both of you.

  • I think a common theme in both of your remarks

  • was the incentive structure and whether or not

  • the UBI or an alternative welfare system

  • incentivizes work or productive contribution to society.

  • And so on that theme,

  • I have two targeted questions to both of you.

  • Apologies, I'm going by first names

  • 'cause I can't pronounce last name.

  • Karl, I was wondering--

  • - [Karl] That's what I tell all my students to do.

  • - Okay.

  • Karl, I was wondering to what extent do you think

  • UBI incentivizes or disincentivizes work?

  • The empirical evidence is kind of mixed

  • and I was just wondering what your take on that was.

  • And Oren, I was wondering,

  • you've talked a little bit in your remarks

  • about how the cutoffs and a lot of the welfare programs,

  • that's like a problem that needs to be fixed

  • based on like how much income you earn.

  • But a program that we studied extensively in our class

  • is the disability program

  • and how it actively disincentivizes work

  • by cutting people's disability checks

  • if they're engaging in work.

  • And I was like, part of the reason why people support UBI

  • is because it doesn't have that same conditionality

  • because it's universal.

  • And I was just wondering if you could comment

  • on the disability program and whether or not you think UBI

  • actually fixes that incentive problem that exists there.

  • - Go in reverse order.

  • Oren, you want to go first?

  • - It's a great question.

  • I think and Karl spoke to this too,

  • that we have programs

  • that are incredibly poorly designed today

  • like disability Medicaid

  • especially Post Affordable Care Act

  • is creating some very serious cliffs.

  • Unemployment insurance, how it's typically deployed

  • has just this massive, as soon as you start working,

  • you lose it all kind of model.

  • And so finding a way to deliver benefits

  • that do not have those features

  • I think is an incredibly important reform.

  • And there are lots of good reform proposals out there.

  • I mean, when you're talking in terms of healthcare,

  • it's actually somewhat perplexing

  • that we set up these Obamacare exchanges

  • that have a contribution,

  • a subsidized contribution to your premium

  • and it phases down and we said,

  • unless you're below this percent of the poverty line

  • and then you can't access that system.

  • You get Medicaid instead.

  • A phase down Medicaid would make an awful lot more sense.

  • A phase down disability instead of a cliff,

  • a period where you can go back to work for a period of time

  • before you lose the disability.

  • There are lots of ways do better than we do

  • and there are lots of good proposals out there on them.

  • So I certainly think those things need reform.

  • Even if you get rid of the cliffs,

  • you still have the problem of the phase out.

  • Effectively a marginal tax rate.

  • And in fact, if you look,

  • the highest marginal tax rates in our society

  • are not paid by a high income households.

  • They're paid by the lowest income households.

  • If you take into account what they lose in benefits

  • for every dollar that they earn.

  • And that's really silly.

  • So again, you can address particular programs.

  • Another thing you can do is what I just described.

  • With the wage subsidy concept,

  • which is if you say, look, we really want the safety net

  • to be for people who can't work.

  • And if you can work, we really want to find ways

  • to make sure that, that the work actually is sufficient

  • to support your family.

  • And if you provide the support, the wage subsidy,

  • you don't get the phase out.

  • And the reason you don't get the phase out

  • is because you only scale down the subsidy

  • as your wage goes up.

  • So if you work 40 hours a week at a given wage,

  • you get some amount of subsidy.

  • If you want to work 80 hours, you can get twice as much.

  • If someone else from your household works,

  • still get the subsidy.

  • It's just based on your wage.

  • Now, when you get a promotion, when you get a raise,

  • 10 to 12 to $14 an hour, your subsidy starts to decline.

  • But unlike with extra hours of work,

  • people tend to like promotions in wages.

  • It's not nearly as much of a problem

  • to discourage on that margin.

  • And so again, you can't avoid the problem entirely

  • without pure university reality.

  • Although I take Karl's argument to be in fact,

  • actually UBI also imposes quite large marginal tax rates

  • and even lower income households.

  • But you can do it a lot better.

  • And then the last thing I would just say

  • is that it's important to keep in mind

  • that the kind of extremely analytical

  • economic measurement of marginal tax rate

  • is just one of many factors

  • that influence people's decisions about work.

  • Other factors, cultural and social factors

  • about expectations, the economic structure

  • of career trajectories available or at least is important.

  • And so trying to optimize a system

  • for the bright marginal tax rate

  • at the expense of completely blowing up

  • all of your social and cultural expectations around work,

  • I think will not have the effect

  • that the Economics 101 blackboard might say it would.

  • - Okay, so the question is to what extent

  • does UBI incentivizes or disincentivizes work?

  • UBI is a lump sum payment.

  • And in that sense,

  • it neither incentivizes nor disincentivizes work.

  • It's what we call a neutral, that lump sum payments

  • are considered by economists to be neutral.

  • You don't have to change your behavior

  • to get the basic income.

  • Now the taxes, depending on how you collect the taxes,

  • those might have a disincentivising

  • or incentivizing effect.

  • But basic income in and of itself doesn't have one.

  • Now you need to look at it in combination with those things.

  • It does have income effects,

  • but it does not have the incentive.

  • So if you get on disability, you have a strong incentive

  • to say, I'm going to stay on disability.

  • Whereas basic income, you can go back and forth

  • off of basic income all you want.

  • If you find you're temporarily eligible

  • for unemployment insurance, you have a strong incentive

  • not to get a job until that runs out

  • because you can't get it again

  • in the way it's structured in most states.

  • So it takes away these disincentivizing effects

  • of a lot of the policies that we have now.

  • And if you reverse a lot of the giveaways

  • that I'm talking about for the very wealthy

  • that we have now, and you reverse

  • a lot of the decrease in taxes for the very wealthy

  • that we've witnessed over the last 40 years or more,

  • if you reverse those things,

  • you might be able to have basic income

  • with actually rather very marginal,

  • low marginal rates for people near the bottom.

  • And that will create a much more equal society.

  • But I think what we have to really understand here

  • is that we need to look at this

  • in a different, in much more realistic way,

  • is that the incentive problem that we face

  • is that employers don't have a good incentive

  • to pay good wages and offer good working conditions.

  • Why would we need a job subsidy if we didn't admit

  • that yes, there is a problem.

  • Employers don't have an incentive to pay good wages.

  • The fact that we have proposals for minimum,

  • why would we need a minimum wage

  • if employers had a good,

  • in a sense, those things simply admit

  • that we have an incentive problem.

  • The regulation of working hours.

  • Why do we have regulations of working hours?

  • Because we know we have an incentive,

  • we have a poor incentive for employers

  • to offer good wages and working conditions.

  • The regulation of child labor,

  • the prohibition of child labor

  • is because we know we don't have a good set of incentives

  • for employers to pay good wages.

  • So people don't need to send their kids

  • into the labor market.

  • The problem that I'm talking about is obvious

  • and the best way to address that problem

  • is to give the workers the power to say,

  • no, I will work for myself.

  • And rather than you, unless you make it worthwhile.

  • And I think we can handle it.

  • I think we can make jobs worthwhile

  • for everybody who wants to take one.

  • - Can I say one quick thing? - Sure.

  • And somewhere over here.

  • Someone can find the microphone in the meantime.

  • - Yeah the disability,

  • there's one other very interesting thing

  • about the disability example,

  • which is that while the incentive on going back to work

  • is problematic, you could also look at it and say like,

  • well wow, wait a minute, look at this.

  • We created this great program for people who aren't working,

  • that provides them.

  • It's on the order of $12,000 a year.

  • It's actually very close to basic income.

  • We have all these communities around the country

  • where the share of people who have chosen

  • to take us up on that bargain has skyrocketed,

  • and this is great.

  • We're all really excited and feel like it's a great success

  • that we have all of these people out of the labor force

  • living on $1,000 a month provided from the government.

  • And of course, we don't think that.

  • We think it's a complete disaster

  • because it is not in fact the vision that we want to pursue

  • for a healthy society.

  • (mumbles)

  • - It is.

  • So I'm from just North of San Francisco.

  • There's no power in my neighborhood,

  • and it's full of smoke.

  • This has been happening for the recent few years.

  • The school is canceled for smoke my senior year,

  • and when I think of UBI, I think of the money

  • that wouldn't be going into infrastructure.

  • While it may be true that this is going into places,

  • into politics that could be shifted

  • with major structural changes to the system that we have,

  • I wonder how with the UBI

  • we could still support infrastructure

  • with things that will be really,

  • that will be requiring attention very quickly

  • with rapidly increasing climate change.

  • How could we find the money for that

  • and still care for vulnerable people?

  • - Yeah, I think that that actually,

  • climate change and other environmental problems,

  • I think climate change

  • is an enormous environmental problem,

  • but it's not even our biggest one.

  • Plastics in the environment, radiation in the environment,

  • general toxins in the environment,

  • the general loss of habitat,

  • the nitrogen nation in the ocean.

  • All of these things are killing us.

  • And one of the best ways to address this

  • is to tax all of those things.

  • Tax anything that's bad about the economy.

  • But one thing people will say,

  • so tax the overuse of our environment,

  • tax the pollution of our environment,

  • tax these things, tax the emission of greenhouse gases.

  • But if you do that alone, if you do that alone

  • and don't do anything else, that's creating a drag

  • on the otherwise creating a drag on the economy.

  • But if you combine that with a dividend,

  • the tax and dividends solution to global warming

  • and other environmental problems, you tax the bads,

  • you tax the polluters, you tax the pollutants

  • and then you redistribute that back

  • as a dividend for everyone,

  • then you are, then if you're paying more than you receive,

  • that's your penalty for being a polluter.

  • And you ought to be paying that.

  • If you're receiving more than you pay,

  • that is your reward for polluting less

  • than the average person and you deserve that.

  • And that then then what you're also doing when you do that

  • is you're creating an incentive to pollute less and go,

  • so you're making everything that the production of which

  • involves pollution cost more

  • and you're effectively by redistribute that money

  • in a dividend, making everything

  • that the production of everything

  • that doesn't involve pollution costs less.

  • So basic income is a very important tool

  • as part of a system of fight climate change

  • to make it both equitable.

  • So it's not just all coming the backs off the poor.

  • If all we did was tax these things and not be distribute it,

  • the poor would be the ones most effected,

  • not the rich who are the biggest polluters.

  • And it would also create a drag on the economy

  • that doesn't need to be there if we have a tax and dividend.

  • It is part of an overall strategy.

  • And on your first thing,

  • is that we need a greater commitment to both things

  • like infrastructure and to helping the least among us.

  • And we get away from this corrupt system

  • where our two priorities are less taxes on the rich

  • and more government giveaways to the rich.

  • If we get away from those things,

  • yes, we can afford to do things.

  • We can afford to do things and they're not in conflict.

  • (mumbles)

  • - My question was yes or no

  • on the carbon tax.

  • You don't have to spend it on UBI.

  • - No, but that's a much longer discussion.

  • Although it feeds into to this issue,

  • which is that a tax and dividend system for UBI

  • is almost kind of taking all of the product.

  • We have a UBI and making them worse

  • because taxes on basic essentials

  • like goods with plastic in them or energy

  • are extraordinarily regressive,

  • relative even to other consumption taxes,

  • let alone relative to progressive income taxes.

  • And so the more that you try to fund these kinds of programs

  • through taxes on these bads, the higher a share of it,

  • you will be asking your lowest income households to fund.

  • And can touch them and saying,

  • driving to grandma's house in your minivan is bad,

  • and so we're glad that you are paying more for it.

  • But the reality at the end of the day

  • is that you are managing to shift

  • the overall economic balance

  • even further in negative direction with the added bonus

  • of particularly discouraging exactly the kind of employment

  • in which particularly men

  • and particularly people with less formal education

  • tend to work most productively and at the highest wages.

  • - Last question, back there.

  • - First of all, thank you both for being here

  • and sharing your thoughts today.

  • I think something interesting

  • is that we haven't really defined

  • the scope of how a hypothetical UBI

  • would affect the existing welfare state.

  • And I was curious about your thoughts

  • on whether we implemented a UBI

  • and removed the existing hodgepodge system,

  • 120 different programs that we have currently,

  • whether that would factor to the calculation one

  • to weather Milton Friedman's argument, for example,

  • for a negative income tax kind of his philosophy on this

  • factors into it.

  • Also keeping in mind that Milton Freeman

  • also said that a temporary government program

  • is the most permanent program out there.

  • - Okay.

  • Well as with any program, the devil is in the details

  • and it is possible to have a bad,

  • to have a bad basic income program.

  • And to me that would be one that had,

  • one that involved less of a commitment

  • to help those who are less fortunate

  • and less privileged than the rest of us.

  • We have systematic inequalities

  • that generation by generation benefit those at the top.

  • And we have a problem with economic mobility

  • and with health at the low end that affects everyone.

  • We need a greater commitment to help for people

  • at the bottom.

  • Basic income programs that are replacing things

  • but making people, but replacing them

  • with something bigger and better

  • that is making people at the bottom better off

  • are good programs.

  • People that would take you,

  • people that will say, well, let's just take

  • everything we're doing for the poor

  • and then redistribute it in the form of the basic income

  • and they'll cost the basic income

  • in terms of the gross costs, which I said is of course

  • an unrealistic look at the cost.

  • What you're doing there is lowering our commitment

  • to helping the poor by five, six.

  • That would be a bad plan.

  • So it has to be one that is a greater plan.

  • And there are some things that are more readily replaceable

  • by basic income that can.

  • If you are poor, then cash buys everything

  • that food stamps buys and more.

  • You have every reason to prefer

  • and basic income is higher than food stamps.

  • And yeah, every reason to prefer that.

  • Now, but if you're in a big city

  • and you're getting public housing,

  • it's very hard to get a basic income

  • that's going to replace that public housing.

  • That might not be replaceable.

  • So that has to be considered on a case by case basis.

  • But the overall rule is we simply are not doing enough

  • to help those in need.

  • We need to stop judging and start helping.

  • - I think that is an admirably clear and honest response

  • and I don't mean as compared to your other responses.

  • I mean as compared to what you will often hear

  • from UBI advocates, which is a sort of hand-waving

  • that we can do this instead.

  • And the reality as you just sort of walked through

  • is when you look at what we spend today,

  • it's actually incredibly difficult

  • to replace it with the UBI.

  • So biggest things we spend on today

  • are Medicare, Medicaid, and social security.

  • We already provide in Medicare and social security

  • to a typical retiree, close to $20,000 of value,

  • if not more.

  • So good luck convincing them

  • that they should just get the UBI instead.

  • And as Karl noted, you can't really replace

  • medical care with it, especially easily

  • when you get to Medicaid, you have the same problem

  • to the extent it's health insurance.

  • A lot of its nursing home care.

  • Can't cover nursing home care with a UBI.

  • Then you get to things like disability,

  • which as you noted, were presumably still going to address

  • the added costs of people with substantial disabilities.

  • Housing in high cost markets,

  • UBI is not really going to cover that.

  • You pretty soon get down to out

  • of what is about three trillion dollars a year

  • that we make in transfer payments and means tested benefits.

  • You get down to a couple hundred billion food stamps

  • and so forth that TANIF which is traditional welfare

  • that you could genuinely say like,

  • but now they're getting basic income

  • so they don't need that.

  • And so you're really talking about this

  • incrementally on top of most of the architecture

  • that we already have which I find conceptually puzzling

  • and again, means you're having to find a place

  • to get all that money.

  • - Well, a quick response.

  • I think that is true.

  • There's probably only a few hundred billion

  • that you can replace with the UBI, but as I said,

  • the cost of a poverty line UBI is $539 billion a year.

  • So if it's $300 billion worth of stuffing replaced,

  • that's half of the cost of UBI right there.

  • That takes it from a cost of 2.95% of GDP,

  • down to maybe one point something percent.

  • For a country without poverty.

  • I think that's really worth it.

  • - I want to thank you both for your thoughtful discussion.

  • Thank you all for coming.

  • (audience applauding)

- Good afternoon and welcome to our debate

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