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  • Japan's history is undeniably interesting with its unique culture, samurais, daimyos,

  • meiji restauration and all of that.

  • But not that many know of the turbulent and vibrant economic periods that Japan has enjoyed

  • and suffered after the World War II

  • Incidents of toilet paper hoarding, land prices of more than six thousand dollars for just

  • a post-card size area, infinite money printing and more

  • Get your beverage of choice and sit back to enjoy this video of the economic history of Japan

  • Japan suffered huge losses from WW2

  • Nearly 3 million died and a quarter of the whole national wealth gone

  • Reduced to burning fields and ash, recovery was something that was hard to see

  • Japan being the losing side was occupied by the US established GHQ (General Headquarters),

  • led by Douglas MacArthur

  • Fearing the rise of communism US made its mission to democratize Japan by establishing

  • free markets and empower the middle class

  • The way this was done was by first dissolving the Zaibatsu which in other words were the

  • monopolies and oligopolies.

  • Some of these had names such as Mitsui, Mitsubishi, Sumitomo, Nomura and so on.

  • Sound familiar?

  • Yes, these behemoths were dissolved but they found a way to regroup years after, which

  • is the reason the biggest holding companies names you see in Japan today are mostly grandchildren

  • of these Zaibatsu.

  • They go a long way even before the war.

  • Other measures the GHQ took was a land reform where government purchased and sold land to

  • independent farmers, and Labor market reform which made Labor Unions stronger.

  • These were all measures that helped to create and empower the middle class that was to help

  • Japans economy recover and accomplish the feat we today call thejapanese economic miracle"

  • But things didn't start rosy.

  • To fund the war, Japan had issued an huge amount of over 200% of its GDP in war bonds, which

  • is actually close to the level of debt that Japan has again accumulated today

  • but that's a different story.

  • Anyway, these war bonds that Japan had issued during the war matured at the same time as

  • solders who had been paid in themilitary currencywent in to exchange them for real

  • money.

  • This caused a sudden peak in the currency circulation.

  • However, Japan's industries hadn't still recovered from the war, so there was a shortage of general

  • goods.

  • A lot of cash but no available goods lead to hyperinflation.

  • To deal with this inflation Japanese banks did something unprecedented.

  • They ordered a freeze on peoples deposits while announcing that they were going to transit

  • to a new currencythe new yen”.

  • Because theold yendeposits were frozen and people couldn't withdraw but only a

  • small sum of money, and after the transit period old yen would lose its value

  • what ended up happening was that the out of reach money people had in their accounts

  • would lose its value.

  • And just to take things even further a wealth tax was introduced where if you had over 100,000

  • yen on your account you were subject to a tax of 20-90

  • So basically this was the government defaulting on its debt on the expense of its people.

  • After a couple of years the deposit freeze was lifted and with it the inflation returned.

  • This time an US economist Joseph Dodge created an austerity-policy package calledDodge plan”.

  • Basically a plan to tighten spending and balance budgets.

  • This forced the Japan's economy into deflationary recession.

  • However clearing the economy of bad debt and the re-structuring helped to create a foundation

  • for companies to grow.

  • The following Korean war, created demand for Japanese companies which helped boost the

  • economy, creating the first stepping stone for the Japanese economic miracle.

  • With the demand from the US-troops fighting in the Korean war, Japanese industries started

  • to recover and grow.

  • Employment in the manufacturing industry increased and with the help of the labor unions, so

  • did workers wages.

  • This lead to increased consumption leading to a virtuous cycle that stimulated Japanese

  • domestic demand.

  • This was the beginning for an era of outstanding growth.

  • Wash-machines, refrigerators and televisions became new household staples.

  • Going forward, Japans experienced a particularly big growth during the Tokyo Olympics

  • of 1964.

  • During these years the average real GDP growth was a whopping 9.1%.

  • The Olympic mania encouraged a series of public work projects such as the famous Shinkansen

  • bullet train and many new highways.

  • This mania also extended to the stocks and securities in which from 1957 to 1961

  • In only four years the amount in investment funds grew 10 times

  • Leading to a new catchphraseBye bye banks, Hello investment funds”.

  • However as often happens, these kind of highs usually wear off, which started to happen

  • after the Olympics.

  • This and a policy of monetary tightening made the economy slip into a brief slump.

  • For Yamaichi securities trading company this was the last nail to the coffin as it was

  • already on the brink of insolvency.

  • And this is where something extraordinary happened.

  • The BoJ announced that it would lend to Yamaichi as much as they needed without any collateral.

  • Basically the government was saying that this company wasToo Big To Fail”.

  • But this was only a fraction of what was to come after.

  • Despite this however, the economy churned on and the focus started to shift to a new problem.

  • Tokyo was getting too crowded and countryside too desolate.

  • To solve this issue the prime minister candidate Tanaka Kakuei made an election promise for

  • Remodeling the Japanese Archipelagowith an intention to connect big cities with

  • the country side.

  • The areas that were candidates to remodeling were soon rushed with opportunistic investors

  • that started hoarding land, which then sent land prices soaring, also causing inflation.

  • Adding insult to injury, the first oil crisis stemming from the Yom Kippur war in the middle

  • east causes an increase of over 70% in the oil price, putting a halt to the remodeling

  • project and worsening the inflation.

  • The inflation got so bad it was 31.4% in 1974.

  • This would mean that if you had a nest egg of 100,000 thousand dollars

  • at the end of the year it would have the purchasing power of only 68,600 dollars.

  • This oil crisis would also spark the infamousToilet paper commotion”, which just shows

  • the power of group psychology.

  • It all started with the Minister of Economy Yasuhiro Nakasone advising people tosave paper

  • which started a rumor that paper was going to run out.

  • Then shortly after a regular supermarket in Osaka that had nothing to do with this statement

  • had an advertisement banner that readToilet paper so cheap its gonna run out!”.

  • Advertising cheap toiletpaper was normal as many shops used it to lure customers who would

  • then buy other products as well.

  • And this is where the gear switched to next level.

  • Shortly there was a line of over 300 housewives and in just 2 hours this discount toiletpaper

  • actually sold out.

  • After this people started to complain that the store didn't have thediscount toilet

  • paperanymore, and quickly turned to buying the regular price toiler paper which was also

  • soon sold out.

  • A local newspaper got a whiff of this commotion and soon the headlines read:

  • Toiletpaper price doubleswhich further led to more people rushing to hoard this newly re-valuated

  • asset.

  • While this craziness was going on the fundamentals behind toilet paper production hadn't actually

  • changed at all.

  • However because the toilet paper manufactures knew that they could use this commotion to

  • their benefit, they artificially reduced the market supply by withholding some toilepaper

  • in their warehouse as they would be able to sell it more expensive later on.

  • The government was worried this could get out of control so they convinced the toiletpaper

  • manufacturers to ship their excess stock to the markets.

  • Retail shops would build huge display mountains of toiletpaper to show that there were not

  • a shortage and soon after the commotion was gone.

  • The real problem however was the inflation.

  • To put an end to it the BoJ tightened monetary policy which in turn slowed the economy growth

  • putting and end to the Japanese economic miracle in the year 1975.

  • This was also the time that Japan started to issue bonds (debt) on a regular basis.

  • Creating the start for the biggest debt nation to come.

  • Despite the growing debt, Japan was still an economic powerhouse and a net exporter.

  • Soon however the country would be hit by another oil crisis in 79, this time caused by the

  • Iranian Revolution.

  • This time Japan would figure out how to make this crisis into an opportunity.

  • Because of the rising oil prices Japan first re-structured its production, reducing its

  • dependency on oil by shifting to nuclear energy and producing more fuel efficient cars.

  • This is also the period when Japan started to mass produce semi-conductors and computers

  • that would find its way to all the corners of the world.

  • This exporting had netted Japan a huge trade surplus, and its economy grew to the

  • size of the third biggest in the world – a title that formerly belonged to Germany.

  • But as we knowsomeones trade surplus is another ones deficit, and this another

  • one was the US.

  • Another reason to this deficit was the appreciation of the dollar from 1980-85 which made Japanese

  • exports cheap.

  • On the losing side of this trade however was US companies such as Caterpillar, IBM and

  • Motorola, who started a campaigning and lobbying the government to intervene.

  • In 1985 this bore fruit in the form of the Plaza Accord, where the US dollar was devalued.

  • More expensive Japanese yen would mean that Japanese exports would now be more expensive

  • for foreigners so the BoJ decided to compensate by increasing the domestic demand.

  • To increase domestic demand BoJ did what they know bestloosen the monetary policy by

  • cutting rates and doing more Quantitative Easingbasically printing money and throwing

  • it at the market.

  • And the markets loved this.

  • All this cheap money went straight into the stock market and the real-estate inflating

  • a huge bubble.

  • The Ginza district in Tokyo had peak land prices of 36,500,000 yen for square meter

  • which would be the equal for paying about 600,000 yen or about 6000$ for a land the

  • size of a post card.

  • However the domestic markets weren't enough to satisfy the hunger of this newfound capital,

  • and soon enough Japanese were gobbling up real-estate and other assets all over the

  • world, such as the Hollywood studios, famous golf courses and even the famous Rockefeller Center.

  • Many even speculated that Japan would take over the US as the biggest economy in the

  • world.

  • Watching as its citizens and companies would buy properties and stocks through heavy leveraging,

  • the BoJ started to worry about the economy heating too much.

  • To cool things down the BoJ started to gradually tighten monetary policy by rising the rates,

  • which ironically pricked the bubble and threw a bucket of cold water over the speculators.

  • People who had gotten accustomed watching their assets double in value now had to face

  • the bitter truth that it was all a mirage.

  • After the bubble popped stocks would crash about 50% and land prices about 15-18%.

  • Companies, banks and individuals who had over-extended themselves found themselves underwater.

  • As the price dropped, everyone were scrambling to get out of the market and those who were

  • left holding the so called hot potato would be the in trouble.

  • All of a sudden banks and companies found themselves holding tons of bad debt, that

  • was threatening their solvency.

  • So what could they do?

  • If you guessed tamper their accounting books with various tricks, then you were correct.

  • The banks and companies would sweep these bad bets under the rug in order to not lose

  • trust, but word shortly got out and global trust towards Japanese banks and companies

  • took a big hit.

  • The accounting books were ordered to be revealed and it was imminent that a lot of companies

  • and some banks were to go out of business.

  • However as Yamaichi securities were bailed in the 60s so would many companies be bailed

  • again.

  • But not Yamaichi securities, they went bankrupt in -97.

  • Seems that sometimes you just don't get a second chance.

  • But those companies that were deemedtoo important to failwere bailed by the government

  • making way for a new word that iszombie company

  • By bailing all of these companies that would have otherwise failed created a sort of distorted

  • market conditions were the companies were artificially left alive through cheap money.

  • Some argue that this was a substantial reason for the long stagnation period that we know

  • callthe lost decadeorlost decadesas Japan still haven't really recovered

  • from this.

  • Going towards the new millennium Japan was yet stricken by the Asian financial crisis

  • of -97 and the dot.com bubble in 2000, but these incidents had only limited impact on

  • the already slumped Japan.

  • During this Heisei recession manufacturing started to escape from Japan to cheaper countries

  • like China.

  • Companies not just in manufacturing but other industries also started reducing costs by

  • laying off workers or replacing full-time workers with temporary workers, who didn't

  • get the same benefits and bonuses as regulars.

  • Banks also experienced a big change, but unlike workers who got downgraded banks got buffed

  • with something called Japanese financial big bang.

  • To put this in short, a whole lot of financial regulation was de-regulated making it easier

  • for banks to do whatever.

  • This also made it possible for the banks to re-group into these huge holding companies

  • once again, which they did.

  • But this time its not called zaibatsu but keiretsu, so Im sure it must be a completely

  • different thing (sarcasm).

  • Also the BoJ started pumping money into the system and slashed the interest rate to near

  • zero.

  • From here the economy started slowly growing again, but the public sentiment

  • was that the economy was still bad, and the wealth gap started to be pointed out.

  • The latest financial crisis of 2008 is probably still on many peoples mind.

  • Irresponsible lending of the sub-prime loans and the securitization and derivatives led

  • to a huge melt-down.

  • This spilled over from the US to many countries and Japan was no exception.

  • However the way Japan suffered from this was a little bit unconventional.

  • The thing is that Japanese financials weren't too exposed to the sub-prime loans leaving

  • them relatively unscathed.

  • But because in times of crisis Japanese yen is often seen as a safe haven asset, when

  • the financial crisis hit, people started ditching the dollar and buying yen which appreciated

  • yen from 110 yen per dollar in 2008 to 76 yen per dollar in 2011.

  • This is a good thing for all Japanese tourist who can now get more bang for their yen, but

  • for Japanese exports a different story.

  • Going into the 2010s didn't bring any good news to Japan.

  • In 2010 the European Debt crisis while not causing a panic still sent shock waves to Japan,

  • and the next year Japan was hit by the Tohoku earthquake, tsunami and the resulting Fukushima

  • nuclear disaster.

  • The loss of life was devastating and the estimated economic cost rose over 235 billion USD making

  • it the costliest disaster in history.

  • Since the early 90s Japans economy didn't seem to get a break.

  • So in 2012 Shinzo Abe who was appointed as a prime minister for the second time made

  • a proposal to fix Japan's economy.

  • This plan was to be known as Abenomics.

  • Abenomics has 3 main policies or arrows as they call it, which Im going to break down.

  • The first isBold monetary policy”.

  • To put this simply: the BoJ is going to buy enormous amounts of assets such as bonds and

  • stocks from financial institutions and then hope that the capital they provided will be

  • used for giving loans to individuals and companies which then accelerates the spending and stimulates

  • the economy.

  • I would agree that the way BoJ has been printing money through Quantitative Easing and slashing

  • interest rates to minus has certainly been bold, but whether or not this makes any sense

  • to the normal citizens, I will leave for you to judge.

  • The next arrow is called "Flexible fiscal policy" which in plain English is about increasing public

  • spending in areas like construction, welfare and so on in order to stimulate the economy.

  • The funding for these public works are supposed to be funded with two methods.

  • First by Value Added Tax increases, where the VAT was hiked from 5% to 8% in 2014 with

  • a plan to hike it again in 2015 to 10%.

  • Come 2015 however and due to weak consumption data the tax hike was postponed to 2017.

  • Come 2017 and a similar argument was made this time when Abe Prime Minister declaring that

  • there is a risk for a similar situation as the 2008 financial crisis. So 2019 october

  • it is then.

  • Currently at the making of this video there is roughly 7 months until this day.

  • Also in addition to the VAT

  • the second method that Japan funds these public works is by the BoJ buying bonds

  • which shouldn't be a surprise to anyone at this point.

  • The last arrow of this policy would be translated into something along the lines ofGrowth

  • strategywhich is striving for: lowering regulations, including more women and foreigners

  • in the work force and increasing tourism and exports.

  • Abenomics has been a really controversial topic where some applaud it for “a way to

  • escape the deflation trapor “ a good way to stimulate demandwhere as others

  • criticize Abenomics fordistorting marketsandcreating a wealth gap”.

  • Lets take a quick look at some economic indicators to see what has happened during the Abenomics

  • years starting from 2012.

  • Looking at the Nikkei Stock market index we can see that stocks has soared about 150&100:22:20,160 --> 00:22:22,160 from the start of Abenomics.

  • Real-estate has also steadily increased at least in the big cities like Tokyo.

  • Looking at countryside real-estate however the contrast is vast.

  • What about the employment then?

  • According to this chart from CEIC-data the unemployment seems to have reached about 2.4&600:22:42,200 --> 00:22:45,640 which is ridiculously low compared to many other countries.

  • But we have to take into account that the percentage of temporary workers have been

  • increasing steadily since the bursting of the bubble and the financial crisis which

  • means you could have a part-time job at McDonalds for 2 days a week, but still be consideredemployed”.

  • So now that we now that unemployment is low, lets take a look at wages.

  • Surely they have been rising right?

  • Normally when an economy gets closer to full employment the wages rise because companies

  • have to fight for the workers by giving incentives like higher pay.

  • But this didn't turn out to be the case.

  • Looking at several graphs anyone can notice that the pattern from 2012 has been a decrease

  • in wages.

  • While wages in general have been decreasing looking at the Gini co-efficient index where

  • 1 is total un-equality and 0 a perfect equality of wealth distribution, we can see that the

  • trend has been towards a bigger wealth gap.

  • However when we look at the situation after re-distribution

  • This trend doesn't appear to be too strong.

  • One reason to this income gap seems to be the location, as wages in Tokyo has risen

  • a lot compared to other prefectures of Japan.

  • What about inflation then?

  • The 2% inflation that has been obsession for the BoJ all these years.

  • The BoJ accomplished this inflation target briefly in 2014 when the inflation rate

  • jumped to 4(800:24:19,720 --> 00:24:25,560 But the reason for this seems to be the increase in VAT-tax and cheap yen

  • which made many products more expensive to purchase

  • Lastly lets look at what has been happening with the debt levels of the country and individuals.

  • First for households the increase of debt has been small but gradual, but hold your breath

  • because here comes the national debt.

  • Ever since the bubble the debt has increased and today Japan has a national debt which is

  • over 250% of its GDP, which makes it the biggest debt nation in the world.

  • Also since the start of Abenomics BoJ has multiplied the amount of their balance sheet

  • by buying bonds and stocks which they largely hold to this day.

  • Looking at all this data, I think that at least what we can say about Abenomics is that

  • while succeeding in inflating stocks and real-estate by taking on a huge amount of debt it still

  • hasn't really made the life of ordinary person any better.

  • It is a common argument that there is no problem with this debt

  • Because almost all of it is owned by Japanese themselves

  • And the country can't go bankrupt, as it can always just print more money

  • This is essentially the logic behind Modern Monetary Theory

  • Whether or not this is true is not for debate in this video

  • Hopefully you found this topic interesting and learned something from it, the sources

  • for the charts and data I used are in the description so feel free to check them out

  • yourself.

  • Anyway please like, subscribe and comment as this kind of interaction helps me make

  • more videos like these in the future.

  • Thanks for watching!

Japan's history is undeniably interesting with its unique culture, samurais, daimyos,

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