Subtitles section Play video Print subtitles CHARLES: WELL KNOW THE MARKET TOOK A MAJOR BLOW LAST WEEK. SO FAR THIS WEEK WE'VE BEEN IN THE GREEN. WE'RE FINDING WAYS TO RALLY EVEN INTO THE CLOSE. NOW WE CAN ACTUALLY SEE THIS TREND PICK UP, BUT WILL IT GO THROUGH THE END OF THE YEAR? JOINING ME TO DISCUSS POTENTIAL, JEFF SAUT, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST FOR RAYMOND JAMES. JEFF, I CONSIDER YOU ONE OF THE BEST IN THE BASE. MAKE OUT WHAT IS GOING ON? LIKE INVESTOR OF LAST WEEK. PEOPLE ARE SORT OF NERVOUS EVEN THOUGH WE'RE UP? >> OUR SHORT TERM PROPRIETARY MODEL REGISTERED A SELL SIGNAL ON OCTOBER 2nd. WE WROTE ABOUT IT. IF YOU HAVE SPECULATIVE TRADING POSITIONS ON, YOU SHOULD SELL. WE ACTUALLY IDENTIFIED THE 2603 LOW ON OCTOBER 29th. SAID S&P WOULD RALLY BACK TO 2800, 2820. NOT GET THROUGH THERE, COME BACK DOWN, MAKE A SECONDARY LOW BELOW THE OCTOBER 29th LOW. WE THINK YOU DID LAST WEEK. WE SAID YOU SHOULD BUY THIS WE THINK LOWS ARE IN. THE STARTING OF THE YEAR-END RALLY. CHARLES: I'M CURIOUS ABOUT OCTOBER 2nd. THAT WAS THE DAY BEFORE JAY POWELL'S INFAMOUS SPEECH TRIGGERED A SELLOFF. WHAT WEAKNESS DID YOU SEE AND WHAT WOULD MAKE IT OKAY SIX WEEKS LATER? >> WE'RE STILL IN A SECULAR BULL MARKET, CHARLES. YOU AND I TALKED ABOUT THIS FOR A DOZEN YEARS. SECULAR BULL MARKETS TEND TO LAST 14 PLUS YEARS. DEPENDING ON STARTING POINT, WHETHER OCTOBER OF '08, WHEN MOST STOCKS BOTTOMED OR MARCH OF '09 OR WHETHER YOU LOOK OUT TRADING RANGE NOVEMBER 13th. YOU DO THE MATH, THIS OUGHT TO HAVE ANOTHER FIVE, SIX, SEVEN YEARS, IN IT. FEW PEOPLE ARE OLD ENOUGH TO SEEN THE 1949 TO 66, OR 1988 TO 2000 SECULAR BULL. HISTORIC PRECEDENT. HISTORIC PRESS DENTS? >> I THINK TO A LARGE DEGREE, MAINLY NOISE. IF YOU LOOK AT THE MARKET INTERNALS, NOT JUST THE INDICES. IF YOU LOOK AT THE ADVANCE-DECLINE LINE, IT FAILED TO CONFIRM THE DOWNSIDE. MAJORITY OF STOCKS HAVE BEEN ADVANCING. WE THINK IT WILL CONTINUE ALL THE WAY, ACTUALLY INTO FEBRUARY. CHARLES: WE'VE BEEN HAVING SOME UGLY BREATH. THE MARKET BREATH, JEFF. I THINK ONE DAY THIS WEEK WE HAD FOUR NEW DAYS, AGAINST 1000 NEW LOWS. THE BREADTH ITSELF HAS BEEN PRETTY UGLY. WILL THAT MAKE A DRAMATIC SHIFT TO THE UPSIDE? >> YEAH. THE ADVANCE-DECLINE LINE IS NOT NEARLY AS UGLY AS THE NEW HIGHS OVER NEW LOWS. THE ADVANCE-DECLINE LINE HAS COME IN A LITTLE BIT. BUT HERE RECENTLY, NOT CONFIRMED THE DOWNSIDE THAT THE MAJOR INDICES HAVE INDICATED. SO, YOU HAVE HAD THIS DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE ADVANCE-DECLINE LINE AND MAJOR INDICES. CHARLES: RIGHT. >> THAT IS MAJOR OCOEE OCCURRENCE. CHARLES: WHAT ARE TARGETS INTO YEAR-END AND 2019? >> 3,000 AND YEAR-END. CHARLES: WE LEAVE IT THERE. THAT IS THE BEST THING I'VE HEARD ALL DAY. JEFF, I LOVE THAW TEACH US THINGS BUT YOU ALSO GIVE US SOLID NUMBERS.
B1 charles october secular decline advance jeff Will the S&P 500 surpass 3,000 by year’s end? 2 0 林宜悉 posted on 2020/02/25 More Share Save Report Video vocabulary