So Robert, the Brexit saga becomes

more complicated by the day.

We're going to try and map what might happen next.

Yes.

It may get very messy.

But can we have a go?

Yeah, we've had a request from Dominic in Downing Street.

So what's going to happen next?

He wants us to do his grid for him.

Yes.

So here we are.

So to start with, is the chance of any deal between the UK

and the EU in time to get through the Commons,

and with a possibility of getting through the Commons now

off the table after the ill-feeling in the Commons...

No.

This week?

I'm not sure it is.

Lots of things are possible, but nothing is yet likely,

and I think that's where we are.

So, could he get a deal, and could he get the deal

through parliament?

And the second, they're both bound up together,

because one of the issues with European Union

is could he actually get this deal?

So could he still get a deal?

Yes, he could.

It depends how far he's prepared to move.

Then we get, could he get it through parliament?

I still think, just about, he could.

I know that there was so much ill-feeling yesterday.

The red, the red pen is coming up.

So this is the Labour party pen.

OK.

So I think he upset a lot of people in parliament

on Wednesday night.

People talked about 20 to 30 Labour MPs.

I've always thought that was a little high.

What I think is some of those people are saying,

well, you know, we just can't deal with this man.

He's, my own feeling is that if he comes back with a deal,

that the Democratic Unionists are prepared to live with

and most of his own party are prepared to live with,

there's going to be this enormous sense of relief,

and it will change the entire political dynamic.

So a lot of the bad feeling that exists now I think

will get swept away by the: oh thank God we've got a deal.

We're not going to crash out.

Whether it's quite enough, we don't know.

I think 20 to 30 is too much.

But if the Conservative party conference is still

going ahead, the kind of inflammatory - in some people's

view - rhetoric that Boris Johnson himself,

members of his cabinet, have been

using about the opposition, about the Remainers, about even

the judges in the Supreme Court who ruled against him

at the beginning of the week.

Surely that will be worse at a Conservative party conference

and that will increase the kind of toxicity that might

prevent...

No, I think you're right.

...this group of P's...

group of Labour MPs supporting a deal.

I think that's right.

This gets wrapped up in the second scenario.

Either he gets the deal or he doesn't get one.

He is preparing for both options,

and if he doesn't get a deal he's

going to have to go to the country at some point quite

soon after an election, quite soon,

and say these awful MPs stopped me getting my deal.

So he's running the two things together.

But he also is using the threat of that kind of election to put

pressure on those Labour MPs...

Yes.

...to cave, and get his deal through, if he gets it.

Because the people he's targeting

are MPs in Leave constituencies, and they're

the ones most vulnerable to that kind of rhetoric.

But you're completely right.

I mean, the rhetoric is really quite appalling.

On the other hand, you know, I was in a sort of huddle with,

as we say, a senior Downing Street aide...

Who could that be?

...this morning.

And he, I mean, one of the phrases he used was,

the surrender bill, which is how they describe

the bill-stopping no-deal deal.

That's our new £350m for the health service,

which was a contentious slogan for the Brit...

for the Vote Leave bus.

They believe this row is getting that phrase, surrender bill,

into circulation.

They believe that's a message that's

getting through to the voters they're targeting,

so there's a lot of brinkmanship in this.

So the surrender election - surrender all,

stand firm in a patriotic way behind Boris.

All of this, however chaotic, it looks step by step...

It's nothing as to how chaotic it could be.

It's nothing, true.

But also, are you really trying to maintain that it's still

part of the Downing Street plan, however

bad it looks day to day?

Being found to have acted illegally

in suspending parliament.

I mean, surely a substantial section of the traditional Tory

electorate must be worried about this

I think, of course this was not part of the plan.

They messed up spectacularly with the prorogation

of parliament, leave aside the fact that it's since

been declared unlawful.

It forced the hands of the opposition.

It forced the hands of the Remainers.

It forced their own Tory rebels to vote against them, which

then forced him to expel them.

So it's been a terrible, terrible miscalculation.

That reminds me of the old, to rephrase the old joke,

you know: it wasn't just unlawful, it was incompetent.

Right.

It was worse than that; it was incompetent.

And so, it's a massive mistake.

There's no question about that.

And I think it's interesting, the extent to which Boris

Johnson is relying a little bit more

on the other half of his Downing Street operation,

which is the Eddie Lister part, you know, the David Frost part?

Seeing if they can work this through.

But they are running both at the same time.

You mean, and when you say work this through.

Work a deal, that's right.

You mean, continue to pursue...

Yes.

...a deal?

Yes.

...which is reliant on sorting out the Northern Ireland

problem...

Yes.

...and a customs union problem.

Yep.

It's contingent upon having a solution to the hard border

in Northern Ireland.

Theresa May, as you know, she had a backstop proposal,

which essentially meant the whole of the UK

would be kept inside the customs union

and aligned with the single market

if they couldn't find an answer.

This was too much for Boris Johnson and the hard Brexiters.

So they're now looking at a Northern Ireland only solution,

but they can't go the full hog, I think,

which is what was originally proposed by Barnier back

in 2017...

that you simply almost break off Northern Ireland

and treat it, for the purposes of single market and customs,

you know, as if it was still part of the EU.

That's hard for the unionists to swallow.

So the question is, how far can he creep up to that line?

And equally, how far will the Irish and the rest of the EU

allow a bit of creative ambiguity?

I think you know, if they think Boris Johnson has

got 80, 90 per cent of the way.

I don't know what the number is.

Will they give him a bit of flexibility

to get the rest of the way?

But two problems, surely, to even get

to this bit of agreeing a deal with the rest of the EU

before you can even try to get it past the Commons,

won't the Europeans be looking at what's happened

in British politics this week?

Doesn't that make it less likely than ever

that he can get this deal before even trying

to get it through the Commons?

Because his credibility, surely, is...

I mean, if you think back to 2017, 2018,

surely one of the problems with Theresa May's premiership

was that she was going and making agreements in Brussels,

and then coming back and being defeated

in the House of Commons.

And they got really sick of that.

Yep, no.

It's absolutely one of the two problems.

There are two obstacles, one of which, as you say,

is questions as to whether he could get a deal

through the House of Commons.

But in a sense that's the second question,

because the first question.

My handwriting is so bad that we've given up.

But question number one is, is he

actually prepared to do the work to get

a deal in the first place?

And at the moment the European Union

isn't seeing enough to think that they've

got a deal in place.

So we're actually, we're still up here somewhere, aren't we?

Yeah, OK.

I got it in the wrong place.

Yeah.

But we're still beyond that point.

Before we can get to here, yeah.

And the really complicating thing about it

is that, actually, the deal is the easy route.

That's the gentle path in this process.

He has to get a deal, he has to get

it voted through parliament, he has

to drive through the legislation in about 10 days

if he's to meet his October 31st deadline,

and that's the easy option.

And can we just talk about those 20-odd Tory

MPs who currently don't have the Conservative whip?

Because, so there's what?

There's 20.

One of them, Sam Gyimah, has defected

to the Liberal Democrats.

Has gone to Liberal Democrats.

But there are still 20.

Plus Ann Barrett.

There's 21 still.

Ah, 21.

That's right, of course, because she resigned from the cabinet

afterwards.

So 21 Tory MPs.

Do they come back onside if he gets a deal

and puts it to parliament?

So can he add, potentially, this 20 to 21?

Mostly yes; I think they do.

So they come on board, as well?

I think there are still a couple who quite like the referendum.

Dominic Grieve, I think, who would probably

want much closer alignment.

It's not 100% per cent that he could get them,

but my bet is he'd get most of them back on board, yes.

And he probably ought to invite them

back in to the Conservative party or the one sticking

point on this is that I think at least half of them

are standing down now at the next election,

so they don't have any great incentive to play nice.

Right.

But they don't like being non-Tories, do they?

No they don't.

And actually, their language is very

much of wanting to find a way through.

They're still sitting on the government benches.

It's very noticeable.

So I think most of them would come back, yes.

But we haven't even got on to yet the fact that all

the opposition parties.

The 'Remania', the Remain opposition parties, which,

of course, loosely includes the Labour party,

are also planning to gang up on Boris Johnson if they think

he's even in danger of getting to a no-deal scenario.

So that's complicated, too.