Boris Johnson has finally got over the finish line

and managed to suspend or prorogue parliament.

It can't have come a moment too soon for him.

His record is six votes, six defeats,

the expulsion of 21 Tory rebels, the resignation of two cabinet

members, including his own brother.

What's more, he's been left dangling,

ordered by parliament to seek another Brexit delay,

which he insists he'll never do, but denied the election which

would get him out of this hole.

I'm here with Philip Stephens, a veteran observer

of British politics.

And I want to put it to you, Philip,

that although the obvious conclusion is that things have

gone terribly wrong for Boris Johnson this week,

the overarching strategy, which is to set himself

against parliament, to run a people versus parliament

election and proclaim himself as the deliverer of the people's

democracy, is still basically in place.

Well, to be honest, I'm puzzled, because, you know,

we've been told since Boris Johnson moved into Downing

Street that there was this great master

plan with this great master strategist,

a chap called Dominic Cummings.

What's your next move?

You guys should get out of London.

Go and talk to people who are not rich Remainers.

I cannot think of any government that's lost control of so many

things simultaneously in modern times.

If it's a master plan, as far as I'm concerned,

it was a master plan to fail.

I understand that, but isn't it the case

that when you say they've lost control, is they

never really had control.

They've never had a majority.

And so in a sense losing control was part of this process.

If they couldn't keep the Commons in line

they would rather show that it was frustrating them

and take it out to the election.

Well, I'm not sure whether they really

wanted to go from a majority of none

really to a majority of minus 40 something.

What's a few party members between friends?

Had, have a party which is even more fractious

because he has to watch for rebellions from the left now as

well as from the right.

Now look, you can argue I think that there's still

a strategy in that it is possible to imagine

the Conservatives winning an election.

But if they do win an election and they've

got to get through what's going to happen in October

about Brexit before that.

If they do win an election, it won't be because of anything

that they've done.

It will be because Jeremy Corbyn is leader of the Labour party.

So actually, I do think it's very hard

to see in this government a strategy that is beyond the,

I think the pretty basic campaign, which

worked for vote Leave in 2016 but I don't think works

in a parliamentary context.

Do you, I mean, are you not struck

by either when you see vox pops on the television

from way outside of London or when you meet people who aren't

deeply involved in politics, the extent to which

voters just say, I'm sick of this.

This parliament is stopping him.

There isn't this wellspring of sympathy for Philip Hammond

and the other Tory rebels.

There are lots of frustration with them.

I think that's absolutely clear, but it's clear in the same way

as if you go across middle America

and talk to people there you will

find lots of people who are absolutely 100 solidly

behind Donald Trump.

But in Donald Trump's case it's 40 per cent of the electorate.

I think in the Conservatives' case they're running

what's called a 35 per cent strategy.

So what they're doing is, they're

hardening up the support among true Brexiters, if you like,

but they are discarding votes elsewhere.

So they've lost Scotland probably

with the resignation of Ruth Davidson.

And I think they probably lost a lot of the south of England

to the Liberal Democrats.

I mean, this raises the question of whether they

can win an election, or whether the Leave side win election

without some kind of deal with the Brexit party.

But as you say, they're running a 35 per cent strategy.

The polls are generally putting them somewhere

between 32 and 35.

They're giving the Brexit party, Nigel Farage's party, around 12

per cent to 13 per cent at the moment.

Clearly, that's way too much for Boris Johnson's liking.

Theresa May got 42 per cent and didn't win an election.

So what are they going to have to do with the Brexit party?

But can they tough it out on the assumption that in the end,

Nigel Farage is going to have to look at this and go,

if I run against the Conservatives, I'm going,

I could lose Brexit?

Well, I think we probably both agree

that this election is probably going

to be decided on a regional seat by seat basis rather

than the sort of national percentages.

But I think that for me, a path to put Boris Johnson back

into Downing Street, means taking 40,

50 seats in the Labour heartlands,

and doing that against Nigel Farage is pretty much nigh

impossible.

So he's either got to do a deal with him

or get him out the way.

I think so, yeah.

Even then, I mean, we've talked about this a lot,

but 40, 50 seats is still quite a lot.

It is what Theresa May did, and as I said,

she got 42 per cent of the vote.

Yes.

Or she tried to do.

I think, you know, I think if I were a Conservative strategist

in number 10, I'd simply be praying for complete collapse.

If you were a Conservative, they'd

have marched you out by now.

I would have been pushed out.

But I probably would've done rather better

than the existing ones.

But I think they have to pray for a complete collapse

in the Labour vote.

And I think the only way that the Conservatives can win

a majority is if the Labour vote doesn't just fall sharply,

but if it collapses towards 20 per cent.

The one thing to consider is obviously at the last election,

the Conservatives and Labour got between them around 83 per cent

of the vote, the most vicious third-party squeeze in modern

memory.

The Liberal Democrats are not going to do that badly again.

So that could affect the results in all kinds of places.

Yes, I think we're going to have odd results

in different places.

I would, if I had to guess, I'd guess

that the Liberals are going to be up to 30, 40 seats quite

easily.

And that's mostly the Tory's expense.

And that's mostly at the Tory's expense.

I think the SNP will have more or less a clean sweep

in Scotland, because Labour are in desperate trouble

in Scotland as well.

I think you might even get the odd Greens.

And it depends whether, I mean, a lot will

depend on how well the Remain side coalesces, as it were.

I think if there is some sort of deal understanding

between the Conservatives and Nigel Farage,

then a lot will rest on whether Remainers,

if you want to call them that, across the parties,

do at least some informal deals.

And what about independent Tories?

Are we going to see some of them?

Well, I think we are, and I think you know,

talking to some of them privately,

what you hear from them, is even if I don't win a seat myself,

I'm going to extract a price.

Excellent.

So I would very much expect, you know,

Philip Hammond, Amber Rudd to be standing.

One last thought.

Boris Johnson's now got five weeks

before parliament sits again.

He can spend a bit of time trying to get a deal,

maybe he can, maybe he can't.

But if we get to October the 19th, he hasn't got a deal,

he's faced with the choice of comply

with the law telling him he has to seek an extension or resign,

or try and defy the law, what's your best

bet as to which way he'll go?

Well, I'm not sure which way he'll go,

but I would guess, given the pledges given yesterday

in the Commons about obeying the law that he will sign and then

resign.

So he will sign the letter asking for an extension

saying he had to obey the law, and then resign,

saying I'm a man of principle.

Funny words to attach to Boris Johnson,

but he would claim to be a man of principle and then resign.

Actually, that may not be as terrible for him

as some people suggest in terms of his electoral appeal.

I think there's a chance that Leavers will believe him

when he says, I was forced into doing this.

Look, I think the Leavers will vote for Boris Johnson and/or

the Brexit party, because you know,

we do see this divide in British politics now, which is,

you know, as much about Leave or Remain as about Tory,

Labour or other, you know, old tribal identity.

So look, I think he, the Brexit side

can be sure of getting perhaps 40

per cent of the electorate in a general election.

But whether that's enough for a majority,

I don't, I don't think so.

I think, you know, the central forecast now

must be for a general election and another hung parliament.

Well, its good to know that will sort everything out.

Thanks very much.

Thank you.