Name: 為什麼冠狀病毒對全球航空公司的影響比9/11事件更大？ (Why Coronavirus Is Having a Bigger Impact on Global Airlines Than 9/11 | WSJ)
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T09:00:51.000Z
Duration: 4 min 23 s

情態副詞

Canceled flights, empty planes, and eerily quiet airports.

取消的班機、空無一人的飛機、以及異常寧靜的機場。

This is what the impact of the coronavirus epidemic looks like through the lens of travelers, and the effect is visible in the skies too.

這就是旅客看到冠狀病毒疫情所帶來的影響，而且也從天空上看到所受到的影響。

One year ago, this is how many planes were flying above China, and now, that same airspace looks like this.

這是一年前在大陸上空密密麻麻的飛航路線，而現在這樣同樣的飛航區域看起來卻是如此。

The epidemic has led to an 80% drop in traffic at China's busiest airports.

這個傳染病已導致大陸客流量最大的機場減少了百分之 80 的航班量。

The reduction in global capacity measured by how many seats remain grounded is greater than it was following SARS and even greater than after 9/11.

評估有多少的空機位，可以看到全球飛機的乘客量比起在 SARS 和 911 事件時期還要有更大的影響。

I think we have a whole different ball game now compared to the 2001, 2003 issues.

相較於 2001 年和 2003 年的問題，我想我們現在有一個完全不一樣的賭局。

So what impact is this having on the aviation industry?

所以現在的航空業正受到什麼樣的影響呢？

If we look back in 10 years' time, will this be seen as a blip or a game-changer?

如果我們看看 10 年前的那時候，這件事情會看起來只是曇花一現還是關鍵性的一刻呢？

The financial implications of suspended flights and routes are huge.

飛機以及飛航路線的停止衍生的財政問題是很嚴重的。

China's become the second biggest aviation market globally with airlines like American Airlines flying as many as 28 flights weekly.

大陸已經成為世界第二大的航空業，像是美國航空一樣，一個禮拜相當於有 28 個航班。

Obviously, now with the coronavirus outbreak, that's dropped down to zero.

無疑的是，現在冠狀病毒的爆發，全球的航班已掉到零。

To make matters worse, many cancellations and suspensions came directly after Chinese New Year when airlines normally see a boost in ticket sales.

通常在春節過後，航空機票的價格會比較高，不過這樣的取消和停飛讓這個損失更加慘重。

Beyond impacting just Chinese air traffic, you're looking at where do those passengers connect beyond China, where do they go when they're departing China?

不只是影響到大陸航空業之外，你們可以看到有多少旅者在大陸搭機或是轉機。

A narrow-body aircraft is costing in the order of $10,000 a day, whether that's been financed or whether it's being leased.

不管它是貸款或是租借的情況下，一架比較小的飛機一天就會花掉 1 萬塊的費用。

If you're not flying it, it's not just the $10,000 per day per aircraft.

如果是未起飛的飛機，那可不能只算一架飛機一天 1 萬塊的花費而已。

You've got crews sitting around, flight crews, cabin crews, yet the aircraft itself will still need maintenance.

你們還有有工作人員在旁的協助、飛航人員、機組人員，而這架飛機仍需要維修。

A new wide-body aircraft is going to be costing as much as $50,000 a day.

一架新的大型飛機一天就將花費 5 萬塊元。

Cathay Pacific and Asiana Airlines have both asked thousands of staff to take unpaid leave.

國泰航空和韓亞航空已經要求幾千個員工放無薪假。

Hong Kong Airlines announced it would lay of 400 workers.

而香港航空則宣布將會裁 400 名員工，

Its chairman said the changes were about ensuring its very survival, as reported by local media.

當地媒體指出，董事會說這樣的改變是為了確保自己的生存機會。

Globally, IATA is forecasting a $29.3 billion loss in revenue for 2020.

國際航空運輸協會預測 2020 年將損失 2930 億美金的營收。

For context, the Icelanic volcano eruption that disrupted air traffic across Europe for several days cost the industry $1.7 billion in lost revenue.

以之前的事件來說，冰島火山爆發打亂了歐洲飛航好幾天，造成了航空業 17 億的營收損失。

Though nobody knows how long the epidemic will last, the industry is already bracing for a hit that is expected to be harder than after 9/11 or SARS.

雖然沒人知道這個傳染病還要多久才會平息，不過航空產業也已經受到比美國 911 事件或是 SARS 還要大的影響。

而 SARS 在這邊比較像一個基準質。

The global share of the Chinese economy was so much lower than it is now, and now, where China's 19% of the global economy, it's a much bigger impact.

以前全球與大陸的經濟互益並沒有很高，而現在大陸經濟則佔世界的百分之 19 ，這是一個很大的經濟影響。

With the SARS outbreak in 2003, we saw it took a number of months for the airlines to recover both demand and profits.

2003 年 SARS 的爆發，我們可以看到航空業者花了數個多月來恢復自己的需求和利潤。

What we're really waiting to see now is how long the impact of the coronavirus will be, and that really depends on when we hit peak, for which we really have no estimate at the moment.

而我們現在最想要知道的是，這個冠狀病毒將會持續多久，而那也是要依據我們將在哪時候到達最高峰，不然現在我們真的也無計可施。

Back in 9/11 in 2001, it took about nine months before we saw really the industry recover from the impact of the events.

回到 2001 年的 911 事件，大概花了九個月的時間，我們才真正看到受到影響的商業慢慢地恢復。

Now, with the coronavirus, it's a very different situation and it's difficult to give an assessment, but analysts are expecting that with the coronavirus, this could actually last quite a bit longer.

而現在這個冠狀病毒，這是一個非常困難的情況，很難給予一個評估，但是分析家覺得這個病毒所造成的影響將會持續一段時間。

After years of fast growth, the epidemic could cause the global airline industry to contract for the first time since the Financial Crisis according to industry analysts.

根據產業分析家，歷經幾年後的快速蓬勃發展，這個疫情造成的財政危機會使得全球航空業簽訂協議。

Airlines say they're looking into ways to limit the damage, with Chinese companies hoping they will get support from the government like they did after SARS with bailouts, tax breaks, and mergers.

航空業者指出他們正在尋找方式來減輕這樣的損失，大陸公司希望他們可以得到政府的幫助，就像是當時發生 SARS 一樣，提供救濟、稅額減免、以及合併。

In terms of the types of airlines that could be affected by this, it could really be across the whole spectrum.

依這樣飛航的情況受到疫情影響之於，這也將可能會影響到其他所有的領域。

It won't just be small airlines or large airlines or airlines with a specific type.

這樣的病情不會只影響到小規模或是大規模的航空業，還會牽涉到其他有關航空業的產業。

This will be impacting virtually every airline that operates in and out of China.

這將會實實在在地影響到每個飛往或是飛出大陸的航線。

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為什麼冠狀病毒對全球航空公司的影響比9/11事件更大？ (Why Coronavirus Is Having a Bigger Impact on Global Airlines Than 9/11 | WSJ)

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