Arethegovernment's assurancestocustomersofthebankenoughtoreassurethembefore I introduceourdistinguishedmadness.
Tonight, the R B I hasrestrictedwithdrawalsfromyesbankjust ₹50,000 a possumcrisisthatyes, bankmarksthefirstsuchinstanceinvolving a newagelenderintheprivatesector.
Theborder.
ThebankhasbeensupersededbythecentralBankofdecision, takenafterseriousissueswereraisedaboutcorporategovernanceissueson a sharplydeterioratingfinancialsituation.
A coupleofthosearekeypointsonthereasonsforthecollapseoffthebank.
Firstly, theexposureoffyesbanktostressCorporatesandthiswasinfactmentionedbythefinanceminister, NurmelaSeatRobingroupssuchastheUntil a Bonnygroup, theSLgroup, VodafoneandIsland F s pre 2014 shesaid, is a reasonwhythishasallgoneterriblywrongforyesbankahweekcompliancestructure, wrongassetclassification, riskycreditdecisions, allegationsoffinsidertrading, ouroldreasonswhyshebelievesthathavecontributedtothemessinyesbanktoday.
I'm goingtointroducemyPanelistsSanchezMukherjeeCD a privatewealthmanager.
Thanksverymuchforbeingwithus.
AmitabhDubey, a policycoordinatoronthepoliticalofferattheCongressPartyand a politicalanalyst, willbejoinedbyGotchaLinda's, theEconomistmomentarilyBishopdepartedarea, formercountryheadofIndianfinancialbankingatIan's atGreenlees, MotherandsubNervous.
WegiveyouoneminutetosummarizesomeofyourthoughtsbeforewebeginthebigfightSuch a thatyoufirst.
Thankyou, Vishnu.
See, I thinkifoneweretolookatthisentireissue.
I thinkthemovebythegovernmentwas a verysharpmoveonaspermitwasverytimelybecausetheprimaryintentoffthegovernmentinthissituationwastokeepyesbankas a goingconcern.
Themovewasdonepurelyfromtheinterestoffdepositossothatthere's not a runonthebankmoneyorrunonthebank.
Moneysituationis a very, verygrimsituation, right?
So I thinkthemoreorlessmanagedtoavoidavoidthiskindof a crisisonitskeptitas a goingconcernaswe I havesteppedintotake 49% sothey'llbeclosetorun.
Myunderstandingis 2500 croresofcashinfusionon a 49% stick.
Sothequestionis, why's S B I beingforcedtoinjectatleast 2500 croresandupto 12,000 crowsoffitsownequitytopropthisbackup?
Whatwhatisneededis a bailoutfordepositors, notforcreditorsandnotforshareholdersusingmoneythatbelongstotaxpayersandbeonthisimportantgoingtominorityshareholdersinStateBankofIndiawhosemoneyisnowbeingused.
S bankepisodeactuallyshowsveryclearlythattheproblemsoffNPSinthebankingsysteminOctoberitstartedoffwith a PSBisdeadifitintotheprivatebanks.
Andjustatthepointoftime, wherewefeltthattheproblemwasbehindusonthe 2021 willbe a freshhere.
I thinkthisparticularissuehascomeup, but I thinktheelectricteaminwhichboththegovernmentandtheFBIhavereactedisvery, verypositivebecauseit's intherightsignalstothepublicthatwewillnotletanyparticularbankfeelsonotwithstandingwhatwentwrongandwithoutdisturbingdoneearlierornot.
I thinkwhat's reallyimportantisthatthe r B A andthegovernmenthaveshownthattheywillnotletthebankfailed.
Andi, ascanbeseen, thattheyhaveinvestedintowbetoassetmanagementcompanies 22 s andmomentcosofhugeamount.
Yes, so?
Sothatalsotriggeredintow, theliquiditycrisis.
Probablythere's a littledepressesthebank, andthatmeanttheliquidity, whichwas 1 25% a yearbackon 100% iscomfortableandhillDaythatcrisishavebroughtto a levelorthattheyareunabletopaytheirdepositsbeyond 50,000.
Letme a bigbeginthebigfightonthedebatepartoftheprogramBylookingatthebroaderissuesoverherethroughthelaborsinSanta, itappearsthatthiswas a bankwhereifyouwenttothebankanditschiefexecutivesinthepast, irrespectiveofwhatyourcredentialswere, youweregiven a lord.
Andifyoulookatthecompany's namedbytheFinanceMinister, theuntilAmaniGroupIsland F s Vodafone, amongothers, Thesehavebeenstressedcompaniesfor a whilenow.
A lotofpeopleknewabouttheissueaboutyes, bankfor a whilenow.
So, uh, thisthiswasimpendingforawhile.
Andi, thiswaskeptundermonitoring.
And I thinknowthatthesituationwasthattheywereunabletodothecapitalinfusionthemselvesthatthegovernmentsteppedintokeepitas a goingconcernonmadethismoveoffreconstruction.
Andit's notgoodenoughtosaythatfrom 2017 therewassomebodyintheRV I lookingintothefunctioningoffthisbankthatthat a lotneedstohavebeendone a muchearlieronthiswasnotdoneatall.
A numberofpublicsectorbanks, someotherprivatesectorbanks, sojustbeenpointing, sayingmybunsarenotdoneforus.
Bankatthatparticularpointoftimemaysoundveryintelligenttoday, but I thinktheyhavefollowedthedueprocesswhichhasbeenfollowedbythecentralbytheCentralBankandtodaybythegovernment.
And I thinkaslongasthey'rethey'readdressingissues, I thinkthatshouldbefairlyokayat, forthetimebeingatleast.
Okay, MrMalik, theotherwayoflookingatitisthatwehave a systemicproblem.
Asfarasthe r B I slashedthegovernmentatsomelevelchoosestointervenewhen a bankisfeelingwe'vehadthedisastrousPNBsituation.
Missus, uh, anyinstitutionwhichisdoingshadowbankingonwhen I sayshadowbankingthattheydocertainthingsoutsidetheirbooksaretherewillbenodressingtheirbalancesheets, whichareorderedby a statue, oratorsonwhichthelessqualificationsarenonoseandwhichiswhichotherboard, whichis.
Andthatiswhytheyarewaystartedlookingintow, thatsoblamingtheregulatorwherethereis a verysystematicfraud.
Itisveryeasy.
Butwhenyouseethese, when a regulatorstartsinto a daytotheirtransactionsregulating, thenitmeansthatthatthisallthesestatueswritersareinternalinspectionreports, ourinternalorgans, they'reallallfruitlessafterregulatorbelievesonthosereports.
Soyoumeantosaythatthere, Benshould, uh, a fewofficerstoanybodyeverybodycouldseethatinvadedFloridaishappeningornot?
So I canyoucanunderstandwhythegovernmenthastakenthisrisk.
I thinknowthe I'llansweryourquestion.
Butthekeypointwhich I don't knowifanybodyhasmentionedsofar, isthatstatebankonReserveBankshouldcometosomekindofagreement, uh, tomakesurethatthetieronetiertoecapitaltakes a haircut.
Butparticularly, I think, inthiscase, um, youyouyoucanjustifybecauseitisriskcapital.
Theyriskthecapitalondhe.
Theyaretheones.
They'reinstitutions, mostly, and, Ah, and I thinkifyoudothatandifyoucansortofringfencethetoxicloansparticularly, I thinkyouhave, I mean, youcanjustifyStatebanktakingoveranditbecoming a healthythatalright, bringfedsthebadloansandandusesomebodyelse's moneyessentiallytosavethisbank.
Allowingsomethingoffthatnaturetofailandnotallowingas b i toinfusecapitalintoitwouldleavethedepositorswherethiswasdoneoff, saving a privatesectorenterprisetoebailout.
TheFBI's beinginvolvedthe R B I moratoriumforPMCbankatleastsixmonthsormore.
Theyesbankwithdrawallimitfromtheveryonset.
₹50,000.
TheinitialPMCBankwithdrawallimitwas ₹1000.
Itwentupto 25,000.
It's nowbackat ₹50,000.
Butinthecaseoff a bankfailingisthisnotanexampleofhowtherearedifferentwaysinwhichthe R B I intervenesindifferentcasesandthenagain, fromthestandpointofthedepositoristhatfair?
Now, ifyoulookatthetwocases, I thinkthereis a slightdifferencebecauseifthey'relookingatusbang, thesheersizeofitisquitedifferent.
I thinkthetwobanksarequitedifferentand I think I'llbehasalsobeenlearningbybytheseexperiencesthatafterPMC, if I'm gonnakeepjust 15,000 itwillcreatemorehavocandthereforetheyhavekept a shortertimeperiod.
SodefinitelytherearecertainlessonswehavelearnedfromPMC, which I usedtocareandthereforewehave a differentmonster.
MrPandit's area.
Let's justlookattheRVisrestructuringplan.
I knowyoudisagreewithit, but I wantedtogetmoreofyourthoughtsonwhatisgoingtohappen.
I mean, youseemtosuggestyouseemtosuggesttheFBIinvestingis a badidea, whichiswhat?
Yourlastargument.
I think I havenoteither.
I havenotbeenmyselfclearnow.
Ithasnotbeenunderstoodproperly.
I saidthatifyouareusingthestatebankoffIndiarulesuretobailout.
Yes, I becausethedepositorswillhavetorebelofthequestionswhopaysthemoneyshowSothereforestayedbackmustnotbecomparedtopaythemoney.
I wasaskinghimthisquestion, buthe's elaboratedonhisearlierpoint.
Wellappreciated.
Butlet's lookatwhatthe R B isrestructuringplanfor.
Yes, bankistheFBIwillinvestonget a 49% stake.
Theycannotreducebelow 26% for a periodofthreeyears.
A newboardwilltakeovertherunningoff.
Yes, bank, I believewithinthatperiodof 30 days, ah, depositsandliabilitieswillcontinueasbefore.
Nochangeinofficesandorbranches.
Employmentandsalariesforstaffis a shortforatleastoneyear.
I'd liketogetyourthoughtsbefore I comeacrossTrombetta.
Bonusmythought.
Yes, yes.
So I Youknow, thisiswhy I wassupportingthis, themonetaryinsomewaysbysuggestingthatlet's makethedealsweeterforStateBank.
Iftheifyoucangettieronetiertwocapitaltotake a haircut, thentheygot a muchbetterdeal.
TheStateBankhadgot a muchmoremuchhealthierbank, whichtheycangrowintosomething.
Ah, nicerunningbusiness.
Because, actually, youknow, wehavebeenwe'vebeendownonyes, bank, butithas, ah, lotoffpositivefeaturesaswell.
Soitandwhatpositivefeaturesdoes a bankwhichhasbeenaccusedofinsidertradingandallyesorno, I meanallwe'relookingatjustthenegativepart, andthosearethenegative.
I mean, thisisreadyfraud.
Thatabsolutelytrue.
I mean, whatAh, RanaKapoorinthisswashbucklingmaverick, hewastakinginsanerisksinrunningthisbanktothegroundandthensellinghissharesandleavinguswith a hugemessas a countryandforme, muchthemdamagingtotheprivatetothegrowingprivateindustrybankingindustry.
Thethething, though, isthatithas 1200 branches.
Ithasithas.
Ithascertaindisciplines.
Yousee, itwas a onemanshowandthethingsthathedid, butonthegroundthere, a lotofpeoplewhowereverysatisfiedwiththeservice, thatwasthepromiseofthebankwhenitwassetup.
Sotheyso I thinkthestatebankisgettingwillget.
Okay, soonemomentonthetopcomingoverherebefore I goacrosstoMrMalik.
Yes, soyouknowtheThere's been a policyeffortbythisgovernment, unfortunately, attheexpenseofminorityshareholders.
Andkeepinmindmostofthepeoplewatchingthisprogramwhoinvestourminorityshareholders, whetherit's ONGC, whetherit's a lie, seemnotdirectlytotheequityroutebutbroadlysimilar.
Whetheritis, youknow, thePPFagain, thegovernmenthasbeenreadingthesestocksoffpublicmoneytoebailout, varioustoePhilpatchesinthebudgetdeficitson I don't thinkit's correcttosaythatsp I bailingoutthisthingisthesameasthegovernment s B i's only 60% governmentowned, 40% ofitisownedbyforeigninvestorsonIndiandomesticinvestors.
Andkeepinmindthatthegovernmenthas a veryambitiousthisinvestmenttargetinthecomingyear.
Well, letmetellyouthatthisbank's Trentalsothatithas a cashandbankbalanceswithReserveBankopen 11,000 crores.
Ithas a cashandbankbalanceswiththatmoneyandcalledatmoneyandqualitiesoff 16,000 crores.
Ithas a governmentsecuritiesgovernmentsecurities, whichareapproximately 2 40,000 closefourleaflast 16 56 10 76 100 closesThatis a stateofWeiassetsizewith a networkof 35,000 crores.
I don't thinkthatifthereis a correctevolutionoffthebanktakenbythisbytheyesbutbytheStateBankofIndia, I don't knowwhatevolutiontheyareinvesting.
Butiftheevolutioniscorrect, itis a goodinvestmentbytheStateBankofIndiaandultimately, whichwillgivethem a hugevaluewhentheywillultimatelyselltoewithherpartyonInvestorCenterPoint.
It's a gooddecision.
It's a gooddecisionon a prudentontheveryprudentdecisiontakenbyReserveBankandthegovernment.
Okay, Yeah, I wasabouttosaythesamepoint.
I agreewithhimwholeheartedlysovisiblythisconversationgoingtowardthedirecttaxpayersmoneyvisiblyaregoingconcern a businessconcern.
So a businessgunzonewith a certainamountofnetworkafterdistressvaluationisbeingpickedupbyFBI.
May I justmentionedthecentralpointaccordingtoease, deadhasseenanenormouserosionoff.
Well, enormousastronomical.
Nowthequestionis, whobearsforit?
Isitthebankdepositors?
Isitthosewhohavecosttheerosionoff?
Well, isitthestateBankofIndia?
Orisittheregulatorshavethecentralgovernmentwhohaveallowedthesituationtocometosuch a passthatweareonlyhopingthatthingsareneversobadthatitcangetevenworse.
Sotherefore, thecentralissue, whichwiththegreatestofrespecttoalloffmydistinguishedPanelistshere, I wouldliketosubmitthesewhopaysforthisenormousyouroceanoffassets.
Sohowwouldyourespondtotheargumentthatlook, the R B I hasbeeninvolvedfrom 2017 onwardsay B hasbeeninvolvedinthisbank?
They'reourenquirieswhicharebeingdoneevenatthelevelofthe C B.
Soso I thinkthegovernmentandtheTalibancancorrectly.
Itis a temporaryfees, andhewillseetoitthatusemoneywillbemadebythestatebecauseOmar, FBIdeputygardener, hasputontheboardoffYesBankin 2018 onwordsat a timewhenthesizeofitsexposurekeptgoingup.
Uh, thingisthatthequestionraisespertinentbecause I thinkforeveryparticularsuchfailure, onecanalwaysgobackandsaythatWhatwastheregulatordoingonbecauseshouldtheregulatorhavehavetakencertainsignalsearlier?
So I thinkwhat's moreimportantisthataretheregulators.
I thinkit's fromwhat I rememberforsomethingwhichwasmentionedintheeconomic.
Sobeitthatforthe N b f seestherecertainlywarningsignalswhichhadbeencreated.
Liketheissue, whichyoujuststraightsayingthatifyesbanged, itshowssomethinglike 50% increaseintheirloanbookatthetimeofthemonetization, thenmadesomeoftheflak, should I meanraised?
I thinknoneofusactuallyraisetheflagatthatparticularpointoftime.
So I thinkthewaytogoaboutit, theregulatorstoactuallysortofstrengthentheirownprocessesoffoffsupervisionandmakesurethatyou'reabletotrackthesecriticalindicators.
Come a bitcertainobjective, kindoffmodels.
Theyabletoflagproblems, right?
Sothattheydon't getrepeatedinfuture.
Okay, I'm going, T o.
I'd liketothankallofyouverymuchforjoiningus.
Thispartoftheprogramisdone.
Thedebatehasdonethebigfightersoveron.
Thereasonis I thinkthattheconcernsofthedepositors, thepeoplewhoarestandingoutsidebanksinvariouspartsofthecountrytodancingHello.
Butbefore I goacrosstothemarethesentimentwhichwasthereongroundwasabout.
Itwas a mixedfeelingwhereotherwordsgroupoffOurdepositorswhobelievethattheUSgovernmentwillbearedoingsomethinggovernmentwillstepuponthattheywillnotletthecommercialbankasbiggest.
Butontheotherside, therewerealso a fewpeoplewhowerecompletelyaredisappointedandtheywereconcernedandevenangryastohowthishashappenedafterthePNCBankepisode.