This is no longer a problem for China.

It's a problem for the world.

Everyone wants to know what's going on.

I mean, I don't want a panic, but it could become a global pandemic.

Just how much will this novel crooner virus spread going forward?

The official answer is only time will tell.

But in this video, I'm going to give you my prediction about what is gonna happen with the Corona virus or Cove in 19 as it's now being called.

As of right now, there are only 14 confirmed cases in the United States, but unfortunately, it looks like there's gonna be a wave of infection coming in the US in other countries as well.

And I'm not the only doctor who thinks this is the case.

Dr.

Nancy Massoni, a director of the CDC, is National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases expects it to take a foothold in the U.

S.

And quote.

At some point, we're likely to see community spread in the U.

S.

Or in other countries.

This will trigger a change in our response strategy, she says.

And what about Dr Tom Frieden, the former director of the CDC, who just the other day I wrote an article who also thinks sets spread is likely.

Just look at this alarming study from JAMA, the Journal of American Medical Association, on how fiercely it's spread in the Chinese hospital.

It quickly spread to health care workers and other patients in the hospital, specifically of the 130 patients who were in this Chinese hospital with Corona virus pneumonia.

57 of them caught the infection while already in the hospital.

For other reasons and keep in mind, these numbers are being underreported.

China is being accused of censoring critical data about the Corona virus, which the World Health Organization now calls a grave threat to the world.

According to scientists writing for The Lancet medical journal.

Chinese authorities had preliminary information on the virus for more than two weeks before it was officially released.

One citizen journalist documenting the outbreak in Wuhan that's the city at the center of the outbreak, has reportedly been arrested.

Another has just disappeared.

Wow, so you know the numbers in China are really higher than what's being reported.

The numbers are also underreported because it's actually hard to test everyone due to limited resource is like testing kids, et cetera.

They even started making the diagnosis based on symptoms and CAT scan results.

More on that and a bit.

But based on the numbers that we already do have, let's take a look.

So this is the Johns Hopkins Corona Virus tracker.

These are the numbers as of the making of this video.

So as of right now, they're 60,363 total confirmed cases in the world, the vast majority mainland China 14 or in the United States, the leading country besides China, Singapore with 50 year cases, the total number of deaths globally 1370.

So this data is based on numbers coming from the World Health Organization to CDC and others as well.

This is the total number of deaths craft out.

So back in January 23rd you see the rise steadily.

This is an upward trend here and shows over 1000 as a February 12th.

Then you have the number of daily deaths in this graph, and you could see that the number of daily deaths keeps increasing, and it took a big jump on February 12th so based on the numbers in the study that I just showed you.

In other studies like this one, it's looking like there's going to be a wave of second hand spread of the virus, meaning it's likely only a matter of time before the spread occurs from someone who hasn't been directly connected to Wuhan or directly connected to someone who has a confirmed case of Corona virus.

In fact, we already have evidence that it's spreading and people without even having symptoms.

So here is my prediction.

Unfortunately, a certain percentage of the population will get hit with this wave of Corona virus.

Fortunately, most people who get infected will only have cold or flu like symptoms.

On Lee, a tiny fraction of infected patients will end up with pneumonia.

Only a small fraction of those pneumonia patients will end up with a R.

D s acute respiratory distress syndrome.

Check out my video on Air D s to get a better understanding of what it is in how we treat our D s patients.

So here is a normal chest X ray.

The black represents air within the lungs, and this is normal.

This is a chest X ray of a patient with Corona virus pneumonia in the state of Washington.

The first case of Corona virus in the United States noticed this so pacification right here this white pacification could.

That's indicative of an infiltrate in the right clinical context.

You could call that a pneumonia, and because it's Corona virus, in this case, we call that Corona virus pneumonia.

So here's another case off Corona virus pneumonia.

This isn't a patient in Vietnam here.

This guy has extensive pulmonary capacities.

Extensive infiltrate in his left long hair extends all the way from his left upper lobe, lingua and left lower lobe.

Right long, pretty much nothing.

And now let's take a look at what Air D s looks like on the chest X ray.

Here it is both lungs.

You could notice hardly any black meeting.

Pretty much all of his lungs are just completely, oh, pacified with dense infiltrate.

Now, these bilateral patchy capacities or bilateral fluffy, fluffy infiltrates, is one part of making the diagnosis of aired.

Yes, so now we'll take a look at a cat skin of someone with healthy lungs at the top, working our way down from the head towards the feet.

All the black represents air those squiggly lines of the blood vessels.

This is all normal, so normal lung.

Now this is a cat scan of someone with bilateral fluffy infiltrates on cat scan.

So far, the lungs look normal.

But as we come down, you start to see this grayish appearance is over.

Call a ground glass capacity.

This ground glass capacity represents printable disease.

Frankel inflammation.

That's where the al viola are, partially or completely filling up with fluid and or inflammation.

So as we come down further and further, you'll notice Maur and Maur ground glass of pacification, and you could see air Bronco grams.

So this is the airways, and then when you get outside the airways into the airspace without viola I R.

That's where you have this ground glass of pacification and you see in both lungs, and it's patchy ground glass.

A pass.

It eases a descriptive term, referring to an area of increased attenuation in the lung on a cat scan with preserved bronchial and vascular markings.

It's a non specific radiologic finding with lots of different ideologies, so it only helps him making a diagnosis.

In other words, it doesn't make any diagnosis just by itself.

So truly you never see pneumonia on chest X ray or cat scan.

Instead, you see airspace pacification.

You can only call it pneumonia if it fits the clinical context of the patient based on symptoms et cetera.

Now, not every Corona virus patient with a R.

D s is guaranteed to die, but they have a high likelihood of dying.

Based on the early numbers of all the patients with Corona virus, it appears that the mortality rate is around 2% or so.

But what can we do to make sure that this number is as low as possible?

In my opinion, there's four main factors.

One implement infection control measures.

So this includes isolating infected patients using personal protective equipment when necessary.

Hand washing, et cetera.

Okay.

Number two.

Early recognition of symptoms recognizing fever, runny nose, sore throat, cough, body aches, et cetera.

Number three.

Early diagnosis.

I realized right now the CDC has certain criteria for who would attest, which is a person with symptoms in someone who has recently been to Wuhan area or who's someone has been in close contact with a confirmed case, but at some point, we'll cross that threshold where we'll have to broaden the criteria of who we test because some people will get the Corona virus by a secondhand exposure.

Diagnosis is based on symptoms.

Travel on exposure history, lymphoma, Pina in the blood work, getting a cat skin or chest X ray.

But the diagnosis is cliched when you do the real time.

PCR testing.

Okay, Number four.

Possible early antiviral treatment.

Hear me out.

Compassionate use of the new antiviral drug Rendez a fear.

That's what I'm talking about.

I talk about this drug in another video, so check it out for more details.

In order to get this drug, doctors have to apply for that apply for compassionate use of the drug.

This is because it hasn't even undergoing a placebo randomized controlled trial yet, and this drug will only be available in limited amounts because it's new and it's not undergone mass production.

Actually update As of today, it's now being mass produced in China as well as the United States pharmaceutical company Gilead and because this drug is likely to have very limited availability, at least initially will have to be very selective of who gets it will want to reserve it for patients who are most likely to benefit from it, in which the potential benefit outweighs the risk.

By the way, it appears to be safe.

But we just don't know just how safe it is.

So we're not going to want to give it to people who only have mild illness, but then again, given to someone who is critically ill.

Nice you with aired.

Yes, might not have benefit, either, because lots of times with viral infections like influenza, they only respond to antiviral medication if given early in the disease course.

So the sweet spot, if you will, of who to give it to would be those who have moderate or severe illness when the diagnosis has made sooner rather than later.

The bottom line is the clinical decision to administer the drug will be done on a case by case basis.

The problem with that is how many people are going to require it will be a few cases here and there, or will be hundreds or thousands.

So as of right now, the Corona virus is an epidemic in the continent of Asia.

It's not a pandemic because it hasn't become an epidemic in two continents.

Hopefully, it doesn't become a pandemic.

I think in the next week or so we'll have a good idea if this epidemic is speaking or not.

If sustained transmission begins in other countries, which unfortunately seems pretty likely at this point, if that happens, it's unlikely that it can be contained.

So I do think this will end up being a pandemic, but I don't think it's all doom and gloom.

I don't think every state will look like a nine province.

I don't think every big city will look like Wuhan in the end.

I don't think it will be as bad as the current flu, which there's actually 22 million cases this season and 12,000 deaths from the flu.

But I'm curious about what you think.

Leave a comment below on what you think is gonna happen.

Also, if you like this video, give it a like because it encourages me to make more videos anyway.

Regardless of what happens, let's do our best to be prepared, minimize the spread of disease and also let's stay educated.

Check out my video on how to prevent the flu because not only can you learn how to vent the flu?

But also those same infection measures are used to prevent getting the Corona virus.

Also for more details on the new antiviral drug Rendez Severe checking my video on that as well see in the next one.