Joe Rogan Experience #1439 - Michael Osterholm - VoiceTube: Learn English through videos!

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All right, Here we go.
Eh?
So what you said when you sat down was absolutely perfect that the timing could not have been better.
We'll tell everybody what you do, Michael.
Well, thank you.
Im ah, for a black of a better term of medical detective.
I've spent my whole career tracking infectious diseases down, trying to stop him.
Try, understand where they come from so we can make sure they don't happen in the first place.
But most of all, trying to respond to situations just like this, just like this.
And, um, just off the bat.
How serious is this?
Is this something that we need to be terrified of?
Or is this overblown, or how do you stand on this?
Well, first of all, you have to understand the timing of it in the sense that is just beginning.
And so, in terms of what hurt pain, suffering, death is a cat happened so far is really just beginning.
This is gonna unfold for months to come yet, and that's I think what people don't quite yet understand.
Um, what we saw in China, I'm convinced, as are many of my colleagues.
As soon as they release All of these social distances is mandated, stay in homes have left her home and weeks and weeks kind of thing when they go back to work there on planes, trains, subways, buses, crowded spaces, manufacturing plants, even China is going to come back again.
And so this really is acting like an influenza virus, something that transmits very, very easily through the air we now have dated to show that you're infectious before you even get sick and in some cases, quite highly infectious.
Just breathing is all that you need to D'oh.
So from this perspective, I can understand why people would say, Well, wait a minute.
Flu kills a lot more itself every year than this does.
And our remind people that just beginning probably the best guest what we have right now on what limited data we have to say.
This is gonna be at least 10 to 15 times worse than the worst seasonal flu year.
We see 10 to 15 times worse in terms of fatalities.
Yeah, yeah, just illness.
In fact, I just brought some numbers.
We conservatively estimate that this could and require 48 million hospitalizations, 96 million cases actually occurring over 480,000 deaths that can occur over the next 3 to 7 ones with this situation.
So this is not one that to take lightly, and I think that's what I can understand if you say we're going 10 deaths or $20 for 50 desk.
Just remember two weeks ago we were talking about almost no cases in the United States.
And now that we're testing for it and watching the spread as it's unfolding, those numbers going up astronomically.
Three weeks ago, Italy was just living life just fine.
Now they're literally in a virtual shut down in the northern parts of Italy, and that's the challenge.
With an infectious disease like this, it could spread very quickly, and it also can affect people.
I think maybe to put this into modern terms, this is something we think of often when we think of of, you know, pre antibiotic days.
You know, the old time medicine.
We have an employee at our Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the Inverse Minnesota, and she has a dear friend who lives in Milan, Italy, and she works at a hospital there, and she texted this to this employee of ours last night, and this was an email that came out yesterday from one of their physicians in the line at the largest hospital there, he said.
I just got a very disturbing message from a cardiologists at one of the Milan's largest hospitals.
They're deciding who they have to let die.
They aren't screening the staff anymore because they need all hands on deck.
And they have a very small areas of the hospital dedicated to non covert patient where they still screen doctors.
Everybody else is dedicated to covert patients, so even if they're positive, meaning that they're sick, they don't.
But they don't have a severe cough or fever than they have to work.
Hey says that that they're seeing an alarming number of cases in the 40 something change rage, and it's horrible cases.
So we need to stop thinking that this is only an old person's disease.
This is what I'm gonna unfold, not just in Wuhan.
It's unfolding in the line.
It's unfolding here in Seattle, and this is what's going to continue to Rolling Lee unfold throughout the world.
Yet where did this rumor come from?
That it's, ah, old person's disease.
Is it just because the majority of people that have died from it so far have been older?
Yes, in fact, that's the primary risk factor for dinos being old and then having certain underlying health problems.
For example, in China Ah, those men over the age of 70 who also smoked were 8 to 10% of them died.
65% of older Chinese men smoke the, uh, case fatality rate of the percentage of people who die and women, and that same age group was only about 2%.
In that case, very few women smoke.
Now the challenge we have is that that's the Chinese data.
But there are Siri's of risk factors that we worry about that if they overlay on this disease, are gonna cause bad outcomes, and we happen to be right at ground zero for one of the major ones here in this country.
That's obesity.
We know that obesity is just like smoking in terms of its ability to really cause severe life threatening disease.
And 45% of our population today over the age of 45 in this country are obese or civilian.
bees and their men and women.
So one of the concerns we have is we're going to Seymour of these.
But I guess I would call very serious and life threatening cases occur in our country because of different set of risk factors.
And we saw in China.
Now you mentioned that there's some sort of incubation period before people become sick.
They're still contagious.
What is this incubation period?
And how do we know about it when we calls something an incubation?
But we're talking about from the time you and I got exposed, meaning I was in a room breathing the air that somebody else who was infected with the virus was expelling out.
I breathed it in how long from that time period help the time period that you get sick And what is that is that's we called incubation period.
So that's when case numbers conduct or triple in every so many days in this case is about four days.
So and we actually have data there from people who are exposed one time for one time only, and we know when they were exposed where they were exposed, how soon do they get sick Afterwards, So the chauffeur in the car where an individual is sick showing symptoms than the chauffeur gets it four days later.
You know they were there one time one time.
And if the chauffeur does not show any symptoms, he's still contagious.
You could you could also be contagious, too, or he and that's one of the things that's challenging here is you and I might get exposed to somebody who is totally asymptomatic.
No symptoms.
That virus would appear.
Well, that's not a very strong virus.
But in fact, when it infects us, it could kill us.
So we've seen cases of fatal disease that were exposed to people that had minor symptoms themselves.
Wow, this is what's unfolding here.
And this is where I think it's such an important.
And I said, why the timing is so important?
Because, you know, Joe, we really got to get information out to the public.
There is so much mystery from information right now, and, you know, we're gonna be in this for a while.
This is not gonna happen overnight, and I worry.
I keep telling people we're handling this like it's a Corona blizzard.
You know, two or three days.
Romantic, Normal.
This is a corona virus winter, and we're gonna have the next three months or more, six months or more that are gonna be like this.
And you know, so far, this thing has been unfolding exactly as we predicted it.
We and our center put out a piece on January 20th and said, This is going to spread worldwide time People said, add No, it's just China.
We put out a piece the first week of February, said This is gonna pop probably the last week of February 1st week of March.
Because what happens?
It has.
What's called a are not or a doubling time of these every four days, so to increase is doubling every four days.
So if you go from 2 to 4 to 8 16 it takes awhile to build up.
But when you start going from 500 to 1000 to 6000 that's what we're seeing happening places like Italy.
We're beginning to see it in some ways, up in Seattle.
It's what happened in China, and you know, when people are confronted with that, suddenly this low risk phenomenon that every talks about isn't so low anymore, and that's we need to prepare people for now.
What can be done?
Like what?
What in the average person do I see people walking around with masks on wearing gloves?
Is that nonsense?
Largely, Yeah.
First of all, we'll step back.
The primary mechanism for transmission is just the respirator out.
It's just breathing.
In studies in Germany, which just have been published literally in the last 24 hours, they actually followed a group of people who have been exposed to somebody automobile manufacturing plant.
And then they had nine people that with this exposure, he said, if you have any symptoms will contact us, we want to follow the nail.
Agreed?
Well, they got infected.
And so in the very first hours, just feeling bad, Sore throat.
They went in and sampled the throats there, their saliva, their nose for virus.
They did blood.
They did stool.
They did you earn.
And they found that at that very moment, when they first got sick, they had incredibly high levels of virus, sometimes 10,000 times that we saw with stars in their throats, meaning they were infectious at that point already.
And they hadn't even had symptoms yet of really nature.
They were coughing you, and that's where we're concerned, because that's the kind of transmission it's, you know, I always have said, trying to stop influence virus transmission like trying to stop the wind.
You know, we've never had anything successfully do that other than vaccine and we don't have a vaccine here.
So what's happening is that people in public spaces air getting infected and the way you need to address that is unfortunately, if you're older over 55 you have some underlying health problems which, unfortunately, what Americans do, we have obesity.
Then right now, you don't want to be in large public spaces trying to potentially get infected so you can take care of that part as far as what can.
Public health?
D'oh!
We're not gonna talk about this.
We're not gonna have a vaccine anytime soon.
That's happy talk.
Um, what we you know, we can close schools one of the big challenges we have right now if we close schools what we accomplished in influenza fires when we close schools during outbreaks, because it turns out kids are get infected in school and they're like little virus reactors.
You know, they come home and transmitted to Mom and Dad and brothers and sisters.
And so we close school.
Sometimes it's Christmas.
Breaks are always great for kind of putting the dampening effect on flu.
In this case, kids are not getting sick very often all which is one of the really good news features of this disease into China.
Only 2.1% of the cases were under 8 19 years of age.
Why is that?
You know, we don't completely know Andi.
I'm gonna come back in a second because they're getting infected.
It turns out one study showed that they still get infected with the virus.
But they don't get sick.
And we have that happen.
There's a disease called infectious hepatitis, hepatitis A, where we have outbreaks and daycares.
And the way we know we have an outbreak is cause it's transmitted through the stool.
Fecal Laurel is Mom and Dad and the daycare providers all gets sick.
And the kids those symptoms would go on.
A test skids are all positive.
So some diseases will manifest my primary when your adult, but not as a child.
This one appears to be the same.
So do we close schools or not if we're not really spreading the disease?
Because it turns out that if we close schools, a recent study done showed that 38% of nurses today in this country who are working in the medical carrier have kids to school.
And if suddenly we're closed schools for two or three months, who's gonna take care of those kids?
1/4 of the American population has no sick leave.
If we close schools, they don't get paid if they have to stay home.
So when you ask, what can we do?
We have to really be thoughtful about what we do.
Are we doing more harm than good bye closing schools, for example?
Even everybody will say, Well, we got to do everything we can.
Or do we just tell people you know it's gonna be limiting your contact as much as you can, And that's really about what we can do and limiting the contact.
Is that really gonna help?
It does, because it's like putting rods and a reaction.
If you don't have as much close contact, you can not transmit as much if I'm if I'm sitting in a room with 100 people, and we're kind of sharing air.
The transmissions remarkable.
Right here off the coast.
California, you've got your cruise ship cruise ships and victorious for recirculating air inside the inner cabins.
We've had a number of outbreaks.
That's why they're having these outbreaks on cruise ships.
And then you leave them on there.
I think the cruelest human experiment we've done in a long time with you, Mrs.
Leave him on the ships.
Get him off right away.
Should they get him off?
Absolutely.
We'll deal with them.
Well, they can put him in quarantine of some kind if they want to follow up on him.
But you're guaranteed they're all gonna keep getting infected day after day.
It seems like we're not really prepared for something like this.
Although the CDC has been telling us for a long time that we should be, You know, we are not prepared it all in the sense.
You know, I wrote the book Deadliest Enemies that was published in 2017.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Get it?
No.
And an IQ in a Chapter 13.
The title of the chapter was Cyrus and Murders a harbinger of things to come.
You know, I predicted this and then I wrote a chapter on there what a flu pandemic would look like if it emerged in China.
And if you read it, it's exactly what's happens.
Flight chains went down.
China locked down the country.
It spread to other countries.
People pointed fingers and you know, it's It's the kind of thing where we hear it inherit boat.
Don't get prepared.
You know, Five years ago, I gave a talk at the Mayo Clinic.
The first time I talked about this, I talked many times afterwards and I showed a slide of Puerto Rico pictures Puerto Rico.
And then I showed the map.
And then I showed a picture of a building in Puerto Rico, a nondescript building, and I said, This is our next big disaster.
It turns out that 85% of all the world's production of I V bags was sailing.
That we need desperately were made in these plants in Puerto Rico, and all we needed was 11 Category five hurricane to come through and take it out.
Maria came through a year and 1/2 ago, and the world went into a major crisis with shortage of I V bags.
Now that was so obvious that was gonna happen.
And yet we don't prepare.
That's so foolish.
I know.
I agree.
And that's what hopefully this is a wake up call.
The business community.
I hopefully will wake up.
You know, one of the other things we're doing right now, Joe, this is really one of the things that has me most concerned about.
This whole situation is our group has been studying for the last year and 1/2 with support from the Walton Family Foundation looking a critical drug shortages.
It turns out that we identified 100 and 53 drugs in this country that people need right now where they die.
I mean, it's on the crash card.
It's acute critical drugs, 100% of imaginary.
All of them basically are made offshore.
The United States and large part mermaid in China, in India.
And at this point, we have shortages.
Anyway, every day just before this crisis happened, Now these supply chains have gone down.
Our group is actively helping the United States government try to figure out you know where they get these drugs.
And I just think of this if I came to you and said the Defense Department was gonna outsource all its munitions production to China, You look at me and say, Come on.
You know what?
The U.
S.
Defense Department has no more access to these drugs and anybody else.
They're beholden to China for these drugs.
690,000 Americans have in stage renal disease right now, most of the primary drugs coming from China.
And now with the shutdown and what's happening with this.
And this is what I talked about in the book, why I was so concerned?
Because we are at risk.
So even the situations unfold.
It's not just about what the virus does to you.
It's about what the entire system is rigged up to be and what this virus does once it gets into it.
Jesus, you're making me nervous.
Well, but that's before we get done here.
We'll talk about what we can do to get people not nervous, because this it's too late.
No, no, no.
What I mean is right.
We're gonna We're gonna bring you around to take, you know, it's my job is not scary.
out of your wits, scary and your wits.
And let me do we do about it.
Sorry.
Let me ask you something about sauna use.
One of things that I read was that if you are in contact, that 20 minutes in a sauna in Ah, really hot sauna is very good for killing some of the virus.
Is that bullshit?
Yes.
Jesus Christ.
These people.
Yeah, there was some sauna fax thing that was being pushed around that it's great for flu.
And all sorts of infectious disease is actually great for you.
I mean, it makes you feel good, but we don't have any evidence that makes any difference in infectious disease.
Why is it so?
It doesn't have any impact at all that the idea was that the breathing in of the very hot air 180 degree air for 20 minutes kill some of the virus.
See if that temperature of 180 Greer got really into your lungs.
Your lungs to be fried, you'd be dead house itself.
So So what happens is just from the time you breathe it in and what you mix it with the air there is kind of like taking a cup of hot water and putting it into a bathtub of cold water on.
So what happens by the time you get done?
It's not that hot.
And so, in this case, your lungs couldn't stand even 110 to 20 degree heat without causing rows over damage.
And so it doesn't kill the virus at all.
So it would.
The virus would have to be, like just in your mouth or something like that.
Even then.
No, no, no.
Jesus, Michael, that's unfortunate because that was those exciting.
I was reading that.
Don't stop using Asada.
It's a good thing.
No sure, your skin and everything else, but yeah, but it's not gonna help you with this one.
So how does it cool the air down?
What's what's happening in terms of weight and your lungs, Right.
What?
You basically it's a mixture of you, you know, when you breathe out, you don't breathe all the air out, okay?
I mean, you're that would almost be dead.
You couldn't do the title volume.
So what happens is every brother.
In other words, you have so much air in your lungs already.
When you breathe out, you breathe a little bit of it out.
And each time you bring more in out, in and out.
And so when this mixes in the hot air like that, or the very cold air in Minnesota, when you're 45 below zero, we have the same problem.
We don't freeze our lungs, you know, when we breathe at Mayfield.
And so it's just there's so much in there that it mixes with the other air and ultimately doesn't the temperature.
Your lungs don't change.
Even if you're doing like some crazy, deep breathing exercises, We slowly exhale all the air out.
There's nothing left and then breathe it all the way in.
I I'm giving it my best shot at it.
That's gonna make much difference.
Sorry.
I've always wanted that about, like, people that Aaron like Alberta.
It's like 50 degrees below zero.
Like, how did they do that?
Yeah, well, we do it all the time, Minister.
Well, we don't anymore.
In Minnesota, it's getting warmer there every winter, but problem?
Yeah, we we, uh we surely know Cole.
There's, like, Well, so much for that myth.
Um, myth number two.
Well, I don't say myth.
I should say rumor was that this was something from some sort of a biological weapons thing that was looked because Wuhan is some area, What part of China That they actually do work on biological weapons.
And ah, we've heard that loud and clear.
And let me just give a little bit background on board my career.
Back in the early 19 nineties, I got very involved in the whole area of biodefense and bioterrorism by warfare.
It turned out I was involved with helping to interview and get information from some of the Russian bioweapon years after the wall fell and Russia collapsed.
We had all these experts coming out who'd been spending their whole lives making bioweapons, and it became very clear to me this is really a serious challenge.
And as part of my work, I spent a lot of time in this area, and I, actually through a series of serendipitous events, became a personal advisor.
His Majesty King Hussein of Jordan.
Before he died on this topic, I got really into it.
Um, I wrote a book that was published.
Ah, 9 11 of 2000 called living terrors.
What our country needs, so does five the coming bio terrorist catastrophe.
And I think I bought eight of the 12 copies were sold in that year afterwards.
And then when 9 11 happened, of course that it became really prominent.
And then I went on to serve on a group here in United States that was basically the National Science Advisory Board of Bio Security Safety issues.
So I've had a lot of experience in this area, And so I bring that to the table and I tell you, there is no evidence whatsoever that this is a bioweapon or that was actually released from the Wuhan lab today.
With the genetics we have on these viruses, how we can do testing, we can almost date them almost like carbon testing, you know, so, radiocarbon do you want to know how well the block is or something like that?
This thing clearly jumped from an animal species, probably the third week in November 2 humans and pangolins.
You know the scale.
The ant eater like animals are very good source because we have Corona viruses just like those in these animals, and it got into a human.
So, you know, we've actually had a lot of challenges with that.
But I don't believe that there's any evidence linking this to one an intentional release or an accidental release or that it's an engineered bug.
It's not my friend.
Duncan and I did a show back in 2012 ish somewhere around there with Side five, where we went to the CDC in Galveston and we talked to them about that very thing, and they did The rial concern.
The real concern is just actual diseases.
It's not man made diseases and just naturally occurring disease.
That's exactly and I mean, look at where, you know, we could not have crafted a virus like this to do what it's doing.
I mean, we don't have the creative imagination or the skill set of somebody said, Okay, I want to find a virus that will take out a lot of people.
Okay, this one, Mother Nature does it so much better than we could ever do it.
And you know whether it was Ebola.
Whether it's this winter, it's antibiotic resistance.
Any of these things, I mean, you know it regularly.
We're talking about the pinch for chronic wasting disease to be a problem for humans.
You know, Mother Nature is doing pretty well on her own.
The chronic wasting one really scares me because there's so many people that have a vested interest in dismissing it.
Um, I had ah, our good friend Doug durin on the podcast with, uh I don't remember the gentleman that he brought with him.
Ryan Richards.
Thank you.
Ryan Richards.
Who?
Ah, explain the science behind it.
And there are so many people that are dismissing this because either they enjoy deer hunting or they want captive servants to be something that are still, uh, something that you could be released on private property.
Most people grow and breed dear and then sell them to ranchers who want deer on their properties.
Particularly large, dear.
And, um, I mean, guys that I have talked to that are dismissing it.
I can see the chain of events that they want it to be not a concern.
But if you see what it's doing to dear, it's terrifying.
It's 100% fatal.
Um, the DNA exists on plants for years.
They leak it out of their saliva.
They leave traces of it everywhere and in Doug's area there's some some near somewhere near there.
There's, like, 50% infection rates, right?
I listen, I think this is really a significant challenge.
I am was involved back in the 19 nineties Ah, and into the 19 eighties, when Mad Cow first emerged in England and at the time was asked, given assessment.
When this is all this bovine spongiform self floppy and other pre in these pre answer what causes disease and you know people want dismiss that the people weren't going to get sick.
Well, then, we realize 10 years later all these human cases started to show up from those exposures 10 years before, and it took a while before that's prions obviously changed in the cattle to get to the point where they would infect humans.
Well, the same thing is happening with dear.
If you look back on the deer population that were infected 30 years ago and you look at it today, the prions are constantly changing your mutating their new strains and they're getting more human like all the time.
And one of things our center is doing is we're looking at working on that very issue of trying to help people understand that the studies were done 15 or 20 years ago.
Looking at how infectious is might be for humans were really well done.
They were good, but they had different strains.
And over time the strains are looking to be more, more like they could infect humans where they could even infect cattle, which would be another huge challenge.
Van happened.
And so I think your points are really good one.
And we know today that they're probably at least 17,000 deer that were consumed in the past year that were actually positive for this pre on and people in head native anyway, So I worry about that, too.
That's terrifying.
So these people have these prions in their system now, But then, currently they're not.
They're not making the jump to cause What is it?
Ah, yuck.
ABS, Creutzfeld disease.
Which is why it's kind of a we don't know that humans were getting infected.
One of the challenge.
We don't have a test unless you die, and then that's a heck of a way to have to get a test results.
Okay, so one of the challenges You don't know this until you actually show up with the signs and symptoms.
And so one of the things that we're looking at carefully is doing surveillance or disease detection among people that might present with this, it's gonna happen.
I suspect the naturally occurring pre unrelated diseases lights quite celiac disease you just mentioned occurs typically an older people over 70.
If you suddenly start seeing a 40 year old or a 50 year old 60 year olds, even with this disease, and you got to start thinking what else is going on?
And so that will help us detect it in cases.
But then we've already failed, you know, then we've had 10 years worth of transmission, or more potentially, before we get the first human cases like we did with Mad Cow.
And so our message has been right now hunting is really important.
It is a very important part of our society.
Frankly, it's the way we managed year herds.
Thank God it's, Ah, huge economic boon for running the kinds of dinars a century.
Have.
We balanced the back as you know, from sportsmen on these licenses, and so we don't want to stop hunting.
But we've got to make sure that we and make sure that people are getting infected, and one of the things that our group of the universe Minnesota is working on is test now that almost like point of detection test.
So if you shoot an animal, could you know very quickly that it's positive or not?
And then you'd know not to process that animal, and that's we need to get out.
Well, not only that, the prions what's terrifying is how vote how invulnerable they are, how ridiculously vigorous they are when Jack.
But you can boil them 1000 degree temperature for hours and hours, and they're fine.
That's right.
When they're when they're sanitizing medical equipment that they've used on mad cow patients, or whether it's cows or humans with these prions, they've been able to do it three times.
So try to sterilize these things like the sterilization process you wear.
What is the temperature that they do it for a while?
They do it both temperature and pressure, but it's in the hundreds and degrees, and it's under high pressure, and I've actually been involved with several cases where these very equipment you're talking about were accidentally used on.
Somebody had cried, so ya commit disease and they had a landfill.
It they couldn't.
They couldn't even sterilize it.
That's what's insane.
Like you can't kill these things pretty hard.
That's why you know, we we want to make sure that if you're eating dear service right now that we have toe, make sure they're tested.
And I think your other point you raised is a good one.
We've been very concerned about the movement of this disease by serving farming.
We've had far too many examples, and Doug have shared that with you.
You know, just the extent to which we see, you know, state by state by state, slowly getting, you know, picked off because somebody moved.
Ah, trophy deer from state aid of state being infected.
It got out or others got out of the pens and it infects locals.
Yeah.
No.
Has that made the jump to bison or elk or any of those other animals yet?
Not yet.
Um, uh, it's several kinds of deer, you know, but not not those hell, dear.
So far, there has been some cases in the West as primarily white tails.
Exactly.
Yeah.
And then there's been a deer in Korea type of Greer.
There and one in the Scandinavian countries.
One.
Yeah.
I mean, I mean different kinds of dear types that Yeah.
Yeah.
So the one we worry about right now is getting into the caribou in northern Canada.
Right now, the range of the deer that are infected in the provinces of Canada is right butting up next to caribou.
And, of course, if you're not a hunter, you would know this.
But caribou, obviously the herds are remarkable.
Unlike, you know, white tails Would that matter?
Elk, if you get it into caribou, likely spread very quickly.
And as you know, the native populations caribou are key, their key to their livelihood.
So you wouldn't want to see it getting the caribou.
Now.
I didn't even know that it was in Canada.
What parts of Canada has it been throughout a number of provinces?
I think there's four provinces.
Now It's in.
It's in.
It's getting spreading.
It's It's the same phenomena that ah combination of dear movement with surveyed farming.
And then once it's in an area, it'll keep migrating a bit in a bit as these animals move somewhere.
But you know, it was we know, dear, don't fly for 1000 miles every season.
Okay, so it's not that kind of movement of humans.
If we're going to see a big movement as humans, we're doing it.
Um, as our good friend, Doug Dorine has been doing all this work to try to alert people about it.
And also they're putting up these testing places where hunters can bring it over here and have a deer tested.
How much of that is available to people around the country, though not nearly enough?
And that's what we need to work on is if you don't make it easy and convenient as you know it's not going to get done.
And so you know it's hard enough to convince people they're really a problem, because people don't wanna believe it, even if they know that there's, you know, CWD in deer in the area.
And we have some like that.
But I think that tight is changing.
More, more people are sensitive to it.
They wanna have access to testing quickly.
But if it's gonna take your month and have to get the test back, you know what it is.
Is it that long?
Well, in some cases, they get so busy because, you know, unlike laboratory testing for an entire year, where I do 1/12 in January, 1/12 in February, et cetera, et cetera.
You know, deer season typically is very concentrated in just a couple of weeks to a month in the fall.
And so the problem is, all the animals committed that times your lab capacity has to handle that huge search all one time.
And so somebody's it takes a while to get it back.
So these hunters just hope they don't take a bite during that time.
Yeah, and we hope that these prions don't ultimately infect simple jump.
And what if they dio?
You know, I worry what will happen to your hunting as we know it, because probably a lot of people will not continue, and we need that desperately for her in management.
I mean, it's the way we do it.
Well, what they're doing in Doug's area is there.
They're actively tryingto eliminate a lot of deer and tryto lower, drastically lower the numbers, particularly bucks, which I guess they wander more.
They dio dio.
It's all really scary stuff because if they do make the jump to humans I mean, has made the jump to believe mice.
Well, what happened was originally a didn't and so that was some of the data that was used to support.
It's not a problem right now.
These what we call humanized mice or mice that are basically much more like a human.
We're now seeing that jump occurring.
And these new strange see the strange that again we're around 20 years ago.
Not the same ones today, because, as thes prions continue to pass from animal to animal to animal, they go through these little minor mutations and they're getting more, more, more like what a human transmissible prion might look like.
So on these, my studies now that really made toe mimic a human.
We're starting to see that jump.
Yeah, And folks, if you've never seen a deer with C W d, you should go on Google it cause it's terrifying the idea that that could make that jump to human beings and people pouring saliva out of their mouths and their whole body just wasted away to skin and bones.
Right?
That's what we're looking at.
I mean, that's why it's called chronic wasting disease because the animals literally waste away.
We actually have a major resource center on our website, free of charge.
Open in.
It's all on chronic wasting disease.
People want to go there.
It's w v outside rap.
C i d r a p dot umn Did you?
And you can go there and all these pictures all the kinds of What is it again?
W w dot said rap c i.
D r A P said Rap.
Just Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, said rap dot umn dot edu dot umn dot and we have a lot of information.
There it is.
That's it.
I got it right there.
Yep.
And we've got a lot information on there.
Also, Velcro viruses.
We have a whole resource center just for the Corona viruses, too.
Novel Corona virus.
There you go.
Mmm.
So for the average person, that is ah, sitting around reading these articles that say, Don't worry or readings Are these articles that say this is the end of humanity?
What?
What could these people do?
Like what?
What could they do?
And what did they do if they get infected?
Well, first of all, neither of those kind of articles are correct, and we have to make sure that we get that message out to people that it's their.
We need straight talk right now, you know, And part of it is it's so hard you hear from people exposed experts, what's this gonna happen or not happen?
You know, uh and let me just give you an example because we've heard a lot about Well, it's gonna go away with the Corona virus with the seasons, OK, When it warms up, it'll go away.
Well, you know, the other Corona viruses that we have that we've had to worry about with SARS, which appeared in 2003 in China.
And when that came out of China in February 2003 it took us a little while to figure out that these people really aren't that infectious till day five or six of their illness, and then they really crash and burn in many, um would I, um, But what we did was basically, by knowing that identify these cases in their contacts quickly, and so if they had symptoms brought him in, put him in these isolation rooms so they wouldn't infect anybody else, and it took until June.
Toe bring out of her control that had nothing do with Seasons MERS, which is another Corona virus that's in the Middle East.
It's in the Arabian Peninsula.
The naturalism or if that is, camels in China and by the way, stars.
It was palm civets and we type of animal food road that we got out of the markets here in the Arabian Peninsula.
We're not gonna euthanize up 1.7 camels.
Try to get rid of MERS.
And there it's 100 and 10 degrees out and this virus is transmitted Fine, thank you.
I mean, it goes from animals to people.
It goes in the hospitals.
There's no evidence that seasonal there, So that's a good myth to expose right away.
This is not something that's gonna cure up when it gets warm.
If you know if it does, it won't be because there's a model for it.
What will it be?
Because how does how does something like SARS run through a population and stop being around anymore?
Well, it wouldn't but had we had good public health, had we had, you know, the same kind of transmission were seen as this Corona virus for your infectious before you ever get sick where you're highly infectious, Remember, with Cyrus now, you didn't really get infections till you're 66 days of illness.
And you knew that you were in trouble.
And then you can isolate you.
And we didn't understand that at first.
And we transfer virus transmitted.
So that's why sorry stopped murder stops because we don't get rid of the camels.
What keeps hitting humans day after day.
But then when they go to the hospital, we no longer allow those individuals to transmit to others in the hospital because we do what we call good infection control.
Soon as they get there.
They're in special rooms with special mass and all this kind of thing.
And so, in that regard, these Corona virus could be stopped.
This one's not, as I said at the top of the program.
This is ah, like trying to stop the wind influenza transmission.
You never hear anybody saying about seasonal flu year.
Um, you know, we're gonna stop this one.
If you don't have vaccine that works.
You don't, Um it's just breathing.
That's holidays.
So what's best case scenario here?
Well, I think as I laid out to you before, You know, this could be 10 times worse than a really bad seasonal flu year and, ah, Grand chew.
It'll it will hit, you know, primarily the older population in those underlying health problems.
But as I mentioned also, you know, we have a lot of people who have other risk factors obesity, high blood pressure than others.
Factory can have a really bad outcome with this, and so we don't quite know what it's gonna do yet.
I think you know, we've been right on the mark predicting where it's gonna be too today.
I think from here on out, I can tell you it's gonna stay around for months.
It's not gonna go away tomorrow.
We've got to stop thinking about if we just get through tomorrow.
That's it.
So we're gonna go school's gonna tell people not to go into public, gonna cancel big events.
How long we're prepared to do that, What we're gonna do We have to ask ourselves that I think the big thing is eventually enough people get infected.
Where will be like putting reactors and the rods, rods and the reaction I should say and then that stops by itself, but also because if you're if two of the three of us in this room are immune right now, do it because we've had it and recovered and had protection because natural protection that I couldn't transmit to anybody.
So that's what's gonna happen if you get enough people get infected.
Ultimately, Uh, then it will slow down.
Stop transmission that way.
But that's a heck of a price to pay to get there.
Is it safe to say they were fairly fortunate that this isn't something like the Spanish flu or something that's really ruthlessly deadly?
Well, that's where I think we have to be really careful.
Um, just back up.
About 0.1% of people who get seasonal flu die and branches mostly older or younger people.
Okay, that's one out of 1000 with this one right now in China, we're seeing between two and 3% of the people die, and some say, Well, that's way too high.
It's not gonna be that high.
It's going to be lower, but again on they say that because we didn't pick up all the milder illness is okay.
But on the other hand.
We have a lot of additional people in countries like ours that have even more risk factors for having bad outcomes in China.
And so, uh, Spanish flu, the one you mentioned 1918 that was about a 3 to 3.2% case fatality rate.
Now it did preferentially impact 18 to 25 year old say they were the hardest hit group.
And why was that?
Well, you know, it has to with your immune response again.
We think that what happened is when those fighters got into you, it created We call a sight a kind storm, which is an antibody response in your body that's out of control.
And it basically you destroy yourself and it sets this thing up to trigger off so the healthier people had them or adverse reaction to exactly, or the other group that has had a real challenge without our pregnant women And pregnant women have a very unique issue.
One is, of course, they have some construction, their lungs just by the very physical mass.
But also, their immune system is really at a heightened state.
At that point, there's a part of that immune system that woman says this is not all me.
Get rid of this.
It's like a rejection of the graft and the other part saying this is the most precious cargo over.
Carrie, you know, I got to make sure I don't lose it.
And when that virus got in between those two, it started again.
That same kind of cited kind storm.
Now, the thing that concerns us about this what we saw in in 1918 I mentioned just three plus percent.
This one could be as high as 2%.
So it's somewhere between a really bad flu, your 0.1% And it could be as high up here, you know, getting closer to 1918 like.
And that's the numbers I just gave you a few minutes ago from the American Hospital Association of 480,000.
US here in this country over the next 6 to 12 months.
What can someone do to shore up their immune system while this is all going on?
Well, a couple things, Um, first of all, just being a ce healthy as you can be, you know?
Wait, wait.
You know, I'm getting up there right now, or you know it becomes more and more of a challenge to stay in good shape.
You know, the more you can do to do that, um, something you know all about, you know, is keeping in shape is really important.
The second thing is, if you're on medications, like for blood, high blood pressure don't don't miss.
Take those drugs because they're really important, even though they may not appear.
So you know, you don't have any symptoms of high blood pressure or something like that.
And then I think just, you know, getting sleep and eating a healthy diet.
And that's about what we can do today to help get you prepared for this.
Um, is there anything else one could do?
Like maybe I v vitamin drips or anything that's gonna really boost your system?
No.
You know, uh, when you look at all the things that might be there and I'm happy and willing to accept any and all that might help, But we don't really have any data that those substantially impact on your your immune system to make it that much better.
Is that the case?
Because not that many people do it, though.
No, actually, there have been studies.
Study has been studied.
It's been studied.
I mean, a good example is, you know, and I and I was one of those people that thought.
Boy, this is a great thing.
Probiotics, You know, things.
Turns out that we've studied this with regard to antibiotic resistance.
It doesn't help your guide, et cetera.
And it turns out that the probiotic users were no difference in the non probiotic users in terms of recovery from antibiotics.
No one in the issue of if you're gonna kind of compete out the bad bugs.
So my getting a good, healthy gut flora.
But you would actually reduce the chance of picking up a bad bug.
And it turned out there was no difference.
The people, How would they did a study like that?
The only way I think they would do a study like that accurately is in fact, someone that is the same person like you have the same person with no probiotics and then have them with pro Alex in The studies that have been done are very close to that.
But what they did is they used two different groups people, those people use probiotics this group did not write.
And then they looked at all their illnesses and they got stool samples and everybody and they got samples of the group.
I don't have the numbers in front of their pretty sizable because I was just pointing.
I mean, I was taking some myself.
Yeah.
Yeah, so I mean, I think, but I think the key message here is is that, you know, we're gonna get through this, but right now we do have some real challenges before us.
What we can't tell people's.
It's all safe.
You know, I I every time I hear people say the ris